Brent up 10pc as Trump talks deal

: Crude oil
20/04/02

Crude futures rose by 10pc today after US president Donald Trump suggested that Saudi Arabia and Russia may be close to "a deal" to alleviate the oil price collapse.

"Russia and Saudi Arabia at some point are going to make a deal in the not too distant future," Trump said. "Because it's very bad for Russia, it's very bad for Saudi Arabia. It's very bad. I mean, it's bad for both, so I think they're going to make a deal."

The prospect of some kind of agreement to curtail the vast oversupply seen in the crude market since the start of last month sent Ice Brent crude futures soaring. At 09:31 GMT, the front-month contract was up by 10.5pc at $27.35/bl.

But this is still down by around 50pc from levels of a month ago, before the collapse of the Opec+ agreement that triggered a battle for market share just as the coronavirus pandemic began to eat into demand. The IEA said yesterday that this scenario is presenting the oil industry with its worst crisis. Around 5mn b/d of global production is unprofitable at crude prices below $25/bl, and 7.5mn b/d is unprofitable at $20/bl, the agency said.

Trump has previously said that he is considering joining discussions on what the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia could do in response to the collapse in prices, and he spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin on energy issues this week.

There has been no indication from either Riyadh or Moscow that direct talks have taken place on oil market actions. The most vocal recent proponent of co-ordinated production cuts has been the Texas Railroad Commission, which hopes to hold a meeting on the matter this month

In the absence of any deal — either in Texas, Riyadh or Moscow — Trump suggested that he could intervene: "I think I know what to do to solve it … if [Russia and Saudi Arabia are] unable to solve it, I think I know what to do to solve it," he said, without giving details.

By Ben Winkley

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25/03/20

Nigeria's Trans-Niger oil pipeline restarts after fire

Lagos, 20 March (Argus) — Nigeria has restarted pumping crude through the 180,000 b/d Trans-Niger Pipeline (TNP) to the Bonny export terminal after an apparent attack led to a fire earlier this week, halting flows and prompting President Bola Tinubu to declare a state of emergency in Rivers State . The Renaissance Africa consortium — which only last week took over operatorship of the TNP and the Bonny terminal from Shell — said pipeline flows were restored on 19 March "following integrity inspection, testing and activation of a second pipeline within the network". The last 20km stretch of the 60km TNP, between the Cawthorne Channel and the Bonny terminal, has separate 30-inch and 24-inch lines. Renaissance Africa did not say which of the two is currently active. The fire on the pipeline caused a brief halt to operations at the Bonny terminal but loadings have now resumed. A source at state-owned oil firm NNPC told Argus that the Bryanston tanker started loading at the terminal at 23:54 local time on 19 March. Market participants said loading operations at the export terminal were behind schedule by up to two weeks anyway. Before the pipeline fire, the next scheduled operation at the terminal had been to pump 475,000 bl of Bonny Light crude to NNPC's 210,000 b/d Port Harcourt refinery. NNPC said it had to contain a flare incident at the refinery on 19 March. The company described it as "a minor incident" and said the refinery remains operational and "continues to produce on-spec refined petroleum products". The TNP has been the target of repeated oil theft, vandalism and sabotage in the past. As part of the state of emergency in Rivers State, President Tinubu appointed a former chief of the navy as the state's sole administrator for the next six months, but this is subject to the approval of the national legislature, which is expected later today. A Renaissance Africa source said its drilling operations in Rivers State have continued uninterrupted, while an energy lawyer based in the state's capital Port Harcourt told Argus that government and private business in the city have continued as normal. It is too early to say if and to what extent the pipeline incident has impacted Nigeria's crude output. Production of the Bonny Light crude grade fell by 14pc on the month to 210,000 b/d in February, according to upstream regulator NUPRC. Renaissance Africa said a TNP joint investigation visit, led by NUPRC, is scheduled for today. By Adebiyi Olusolape Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US imports of Canadian crude at 2-year low: Update

25/03/19

US imports of Canadian crude at 2-year low: Update

Adds preliminary import data for Canada, Mexico. Calgary, 19 March (Argus) — Imports of Canadian crude into the US fell to a two-year low last week with tariffs giving shippers pause, according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data reported today. Canada is by far the largest source of foreign crude for the US but flows fell to 3.1mn b/d in the week ended 14 March, according to preliminary estimates. This is down by 541,000 b/d from the week before and the lowest since the week ended 24 March 2023, when 3mn b/d was imported. While weekly data can be volatile, the volume of crude from Canada has trended lower in February and the first half of March with shippers likely sensitive to the ever-changing US policy on imports. A 25pc tariff, later reduced to 10pc, on Canadian energy was threatened to start in early February before being delayed by 30 days. It then went into effect from 4-7 March before being lifted again for goods covered under the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) free trade agreement. US president Donald Trump is threatening more tariffs will be imposed on 2 April. South Bow, the owner of the 622,000 b/d Keystone pipeline connecting Alberta to the US midcontinent and beyond said just the threat of tariffs prompted uncommitted shippers to dial back exports to the US. Crude imports from Mexico, who have also been targeted by Trump tariffs, were also down on the week at 195,000 b/d. This is lower by 118,000 b/d and is the fifth-lowest on record, according to EIA data going back to 2010. Overall crude imports to the US were only down by 85,000 b/d to 5.4mn b/d on higher deliveries from Colombia, Nigeria and Venezuela, while crude exports rose last week by 1.4mn b/d to 4.6mn b/d. As a result, net imports fell by 1.4mn b/d to 741,000 b/d, the third-lowest level on record in data going back to 2001. Crude stocks rise by 1.7mn bl US crude inventories rose last week as a gain in the Gulf coast region outweighed draws elsewhere. US crude inventories rose to 437mn bl in the week ended 14 March, up from 435.2mn bl a week earlier. This is the highest level since 436.5mn bl in the week ended 12 July 2024. Compared with a year earlier, inventories last week are still down by 8.1mn bl. Stockpiles in the US Gulf coast region rose to 252.3mn bl from 248.8mn bl a week earlier and the highest since June 2024. Inventories at the Cushing storage hub in Oklahoma fell by 1mn bl to 23.5mn bl and are down by 8mn bl from a year earlier. Inventories in the greater US midcontinent region, including Cushing, fell on the week by 2.3mn bl to 105.5mn bl. Crude inventories at the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) came in at 395.9mn bl for a weekly gain of 275,000 bl. SPR stocks are not included in the overall EIA commercial crude inventory figures. US crude production fell by 2,000 b/d on the week to 13.57mn b/d. By Brett Holmes US weekly crude stocks/movements Stocks mn bl 14-Mar 7-Mar ±% Year ago ±% Crude oil (excluding SPR) 437.0 435.2 0.4% 445.0 -1.8% - Cushing crude 23.5 24.5 -4.1% 31.4 -25.4% Imports/exports '000 b/d Crude imports 5,385 5,470 -1.6% 6,278 -14.2% Crude exports 4,644 3,290 41.2% 4,881 -4.9% Refinery usage Refinery inputs '000 b/d 15,949 15,880 0.4% 16,102 -1.0% Refinery utilisation % 86.9 86.5 0.5% 87.8 -1.0% Production mn b/d 13.6 13.6 0.0% 13.1 3.8% — US Energy Information Administration Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Turkish lira at all-time low against dollar

25/03/19

Turkish lira at all-time low against dollar

London, 19 March (Argus) — Turkey's lira currency fell to record lows against the US dollar today, after the arrest of Istanbul's mayor provoked concern about instability. The depreciation could cause imports of dollar-denominated commodities to become more expensive, although reaction was mixed across markets. The lira went as low at 40/$1 in early trading, from below 37/$1 on Tuesday 18 March, before easing to around 38/$1 later in the day. The lira has been slowly depreciating against the dollar for many years, but the sharp fall today came after Ekrem Imamoglu, one of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's main political rivals, was held on suspicion of corruption and aiding a terrorist organisation. Turkey is a significant importer of natural gas, crude and LPG, as well as coal and petcoke, although demand for many commodities will be muted currently because of the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan. Early indications from the coal and petcoke markets were that all import trades had halted as the lira hit the record low. In polymers markets the focus is on whether demand recovers after Ramadan ends on 30 March. But a trading source in Turkey said the fall is not enough for "massive changes" to imports of oil products. The OECD forecasts headline inflation in Turkey at 31.4pc this year, the highest among its members, easing to 17.3pc in 2026. The IMF has forecast Turkey's economy will grow by 2.6pc this year, after an expansion of 2.7pc in 2024. By Ben Winkley, Aydin Calik, Joseph Clarke, Amaar Khan and Dila Odluyurt Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UK study sets out Grangemouth's post-refining future

25/03/19

UK study sets out Grangemouth's post-refining future

Edinburgh, 19 March (Argus) — A government-funded study has identified nine potential low-carbon and renewable options for the Grangemouth site in Scotland following the planned closure of its 150,000 b/d refinery in the second quarter this year. The nine possible projects outlined in the Project Willow study centre around waste, bio-feedstocks and industries supporting the development of offshore wind. They could benefit each other through synergies and create up to 800 direct jobs, but their success "will require significant contributions from both the public and private sector", with an initial £3.5bn ($4.5bn) in capital investments needed, the study said. The £1.5mn report, paid for by the UK and Scottish governments, was commissioned by Grangemouth refinery operator Petroineos, which announced in November 2023 that it was going to close the plant and convert it into a fuel import terminal. The UK and Scottish governments have since set aside £25mn and £200mn for Grangemouth, along with other initiatives such as Scotland's £100mn Falkirk and Grangemouth Growth Deal package. The study's 'waste' pathway comprises a hydrothermal plastic recycling project, a dissolution plastic recycling facility and a bio-refining project relying on bacterial fermentation (ABE). Under the 'bio-feedstock' pathway, the study envisages a second-generation bioethanol plant on Scottish timber feedstock and an anaerobic digestion facility using organic waste to produce biomethane. Second-generation bioethanol refers to ethanol made from non-edible resources such as biomass. This pathway also suggests a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) plant, with production made from hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA). UK trade union Unite has been supportive of this option , but Petroineos deemed it unviable "under current regulatory conditions". The third pathway — called conduit for offshore wind — is mostly focused on hydrogen. It includes fuel switching, producing jet from e-methanol and methanol as well as producing low-carbon ammonia for the shipping and chemicals industry. The second-generation ethanol plant and the HEFA facility, as well as the e-methanol and e-ammonia projects, would have a longer 2030-40 timeline, against a 2028-30 timeline for the other projects. The projects would benefit from existing infrastructure such as Grangemouth's port, which includes container, bulk and liquid fuel terminals. "There are also opportunities to reuse existing tank storage, ethanol facilities, and other ancillary assets at the site," the study said. Unite has criticised the study's project timelines, pointing out most would start years after the refinery had closed, by which time jobs would have been lost. Many of the projects "could be fast tracked and implemented now", including converting the refinery to SAF production, the union said. "Project Willow was created by Petroineos as a fig leaf to justify its act of industrial vandalism of shutting the refinery and axing jobs. It asked the wrong questions and then failed to provide the answers that Grangemouth refinery workers need," Unite general secretary Sharon Graham said. "There are projects like SAF production which can be swiftly enacted to protect jobs and those opportunities must not be lost. This would pave the way for the UK to become a world leader in green aviation." By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

State of emergency after Nigeria pipeline attack:Update

25/03/18

State of emergency after Nigeria pipeline attack:Update

Updates with state of emergency declared London, 18 March (Argus) — The Nigerian government has declared a state of emergency in Rivers State, after an apparent attack on the Trans-Niger Pipeline (TNP) halted crude movements to Nigeria's Bonny Light export terminal. A fire occurred on the pipeline at the border of the Kpor and Bodo communities, and the pipeline's management has shut down the affected section, the Rivers State police said. Operator Renaissance Africa said it is responding to an incident. The 180,000 b/d, 60km TNP carries crude to the Bonny terminal, from where the Bonny Light grade is exported. TNP was operated until 14 March by Shell subsidiary SPDC . The pipeline has been the target of repeated oil theft, vandalism and sabotage in the past, and Shell shut the TNP entirely between April and October 2022. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu today said the resumption of "disturbing incidents" had happened "without the [state] governor taking any action to curtail them". Tinubu suspended the Rivers State governor and his deputy and said the region will be under federal control, effective immediately. It is unclear what if any effect this will have on the region's oil production, a source within state-owned oil firm NNPC told Argus . But it appears the pipeline attack has halted loadings at the Bonny terminal. The Almi Voyager was the most recent tanker to load there, with around 550,000 bl of crude on 14 March. Loading operations are seemingly halted as the pumping of 475,000 bl to NNPC's 210,000 b/d Port Harcourt refinery was the next scheduled operation before the explosion. Market sources said they are monitoring the situation and awaiting a possible declaration of force majeure by Renaissance Africa. Sources added that loading operations at the export terminal were already running up to two weeks behind schedule. By Elena Mataro, Adebiyi Olusolape and Sanjana Shivdas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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