South Korean jet fuel differential turns positive

: Oil products
20/06/19

The South Korea jet fuel differential has turned positive for the first time in more than three months against the product's lower production and exports.

The differential, or the premium or discount to Singapore spot assessments for jet fuel cargoes loading from South Korea, rose to a four-month high of $0.10/bl on 15 June and has remained there. It was last valued at these levels on 13 February before turning negative on 4 March and falling to -$4.50/bl on 22 April, the lowest levels since at least July 2008, according to Argus' assessments. It had previously recovered to nearly a 1½-month high of -$2.50/bl on 21 May amid lower production and exports.

The firming differential comes as refiners have maximised gasoil production against jet fuel yields. South Korea produced about 1mn b/d of gasoil on average in 2019, which is about 2.15 times the 468,000 b/d of jet fuel it produced, according to data from state-owned oil company KNOC. But in April the country produced about 919,000 b/d of gasoil, which is more than three times the 293,000 b/d of jet fuel it produced. Refiners also said they have continued to keep jet fuel yields low since.

Lower exports have also supported the differential. South Korea exported 859,300t (218,000 b/d) of jet fuel in May, the lowest monthly volumes since June 2017. It has exported 321,300t in June so far, according to data from oil analytics firm Vortexa.

The country's largest refiner by capacity SK Energy also does not have plans to offer jet fuel for July loading because of adjustments in production yields and refinery runs, said market participants. SK typically offers seven to 10 Medium Range (MR) spot and term jet fuel cargoes each month. Hyundai Oilbank also will not be offering any spot jet cargoes for July loading, although most of its jet fuel sales are typically done through term contracts. Only GS Caltex has sold a MR cargo, for 14-18 July loading at around a $0.10/bl premium to the average of Singapore spot assessments.

Although Korean Air Lines and Asiana Airlines plan to resume some overseas flights this month and July, the actual number of flights operated depends on how other countries' border restrictions develop with the Covid-19 pandemic.

by Sarah Giam

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25/12/24

Viewpoint: US midcontinent uncertain over return of E15

Houston, 24 December (Argus) — The US midcontinent fuel market is again poised to enter a spring driving season fraught with uncertainty over the future of 15pc ethanol gasoline (E15), which boosts demand for higher-cost, lower Reid vapor pressure (RVP) fuel. Production of E15 requires blending with more costly, lower RVP fuel because E15 does not qualify for the 1-psi Clean Air Act waiver available for E10 production, a waiver that allows blenders to use less costly, higher RVP fuel. On 17 March, non-waiver gasoline ballooned to a 19¢/USG premium against waiver fuel, as Magellan added storage for the boutique grade non-waiver fuel and market participants wondered whether the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) would intervene. From 17 March to 1 May, traders bought non-waiver gasoline for 10¢/USG more than in past years, before the EPA issued emergency waivers and closed the gap between the grades. Ahead of the 2026 driving season, the situation is much the same. Market participants are uncertain whether non-waiver grades will return, or whether there will be an act of Congress or additional EPA waivers to resolve any price discrepancies. Eight US states — Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wisconsin and Ohio — requested to opt out of the 1-psi waiver in 2022, a rule that was approved in 2024 and then briefly implemented in 2025, although Ohio and South Dakota deferred implementation. The states requested to opt out of the 1-psi waiver to secure access to year-round E15, which otherwise cannot be produced during summer due to volatility limits. The waiver allows for E10 to be produced at 10 RVP while E15 without the waiver needs to be blended to 9 RVP. EPA issued emergency waivers on 1 May 2025 that allowed for E15 to be made with 9 RVP gasoline. This marked the fourth consecutive year that the EPA had issued such waivers to eliminate the need for the non-waiver specification. To waiver or not to waiver When waiver/non-waiver gasoline was active from 17 March to 1 May, Magellan pipeline V grade suboctane non-waiver gasoline in the southern midcontinent, also known as Group 3, traded at an average 10.35¢/USG premium to waiver gasoline, or about 5pc higher. Conventional 91 gasoline A grade on the same pipeline averaged a 10.43¢/USG spread, or a 4.2pc premium. Chicago, in contrast, had most of its non-waiver trade focused on the West Shore/Badger system, which runs through Wisconsin and Illinois, while the Buckeye Complex trading hub in Indiana remained on waiver product. The West Shore/Badger pipeline system non-waiver CBOB averaged a 4.32¢/USG premium to Buckeye Complex's waiver CBOB, a difference of 2.1pc. Those spreads could be even wider next year, depending on the approach of the regional pipelines and the overall availability of non-waiver product. Looking ahead Participants in the US midcontinent market have expressed uncertainty about the possibility of non-waiver returning. The American Petroleum Institute (API) along with ethanol groups and fuel retailers have publicly endorsed a bill that would allow year-round E15 and curb small refiners' ability to seek exemptions from biofuel blend quotas. A provision for extending the 1-psi waiver to E15 was included in a funding bill in December 2024, but ultimately did not make it into law. Since then, the year-round E15 issue has become entangled with small refiner exemptions with API advocating for the year-round E15 bill with the caveat that the process for gaining exemptions for small refiners become more stringent. API is also seeking to avoid having larger refiners compensate for blending exemptions granted smaller refiners. Barring an act of Congress or more EPA emergency waivers, the US midcontinent is poised to enter another summer driving season that includes both waiver and non-waiver product. By Zach Appel Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico's trade surplus widens in Nov

25/12/23

Mexico's trade surplus widens in Nov

Mexico City, 23 December (Argus) — Mexico's trade surplus widened slightly in November from the previous month, despite sharp declines in both exports and imports in the non-oil category. Mexico posted a $663mn trade surplus in November, statistics agency Inegi said, up from a $606mn surplus in October, though on lower overall trade volumes. Total exports reached $56.4bn, while imports stood at $55.7bn, compared with $66.1bn and $65.5bn, respectively, in October. The result contrasted with the $391mn deficit forecast by Mexican bank Banorte. Inegi attributed the wider surplus to an increase in the non-oil trade surplus to $2.84bn in November from $2.74bn in October, alongside a widening of the oil trade deficit to $2.18bn from $2.13bn. Within non-oil trade, manufacturing exports fell by 16pc to $52.1bn in November from the prior month, while automotive exports declined by 2.2pc to $15.8bn, following a 4.8pc increase in October. The US absorbed 79pc of Mexico's light vehicle exports from January-November, with Mexico supplying 17pc of total US auto imports over the 11-month period, according to Mexican auto industry association AMDA. The "others" component of non-oil manufacturing exports dropped by 20pc to $36.3bn in November, nearly erasing October's 23pc gain to $45.5bn. The cumulative impact of US tariffs on Mexican goods is becoming clearer. Mexican bank Banco Base estimates the US levied an effective 4.69pc tariff on Mexican goods through September — below the 25pc blanket rate due to exemptions for goods complying with the USMCA free trade agreement. "The low tariffs have allowed Mexican exports to continue growing, particularly computer equipment, which rose by 83.39pc year to date through September compared with the same period in 2024, with a tariff of just 0.17pc," the bank said. Those "contrast sharply with passenger cars, which face a 15.29pc tariff," which maintain expectations of 7pc annual export growth in 2025, according to the bank. Agricultural exports rose by 3.8pc to $1.4bn in November after increases of 7.2pc in October and 4.1pc in September. Oil-related exports totaled $1.55bn in November, down from $1.82bn in October, including $1.03bn in crude and $514mn in refined products on lower prices and volumes. Mexico's crude export basket averaged $57.66/bl, down by $0.84/bl from October and $8.09/bl lower compared with a year earlier. Crude export volumes fell to 597,000 b/d in November from 717,000 b/d in October, remaining well below the 1.088mn b/d exported in November 2024. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UK refiners seek unused CO2 allowances after closures

25/12/23

UK refiners seek unused CO2 allowances after closures

London, 23 December (Argus) — UK downstream association Fuels Industry UK has urged the government to reallocate unused free CO2 allowances from two recently closed refineries to help remaining plants cope with rising emissions compliance costs. The group wants allowances granted under the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) for the 150,000 b/d Grangemouth and 105,700 b/d Lindsey refineries to be redistributed. Each allowance permits the holder to emit one tonne of CO2 equivalent. Grangemouth and Lindsey were allocated 441,925 and 541,475 allowances for 2025, respectively. It is unclear how many remain after their closures in April and August. The association warned the sector "may not survive that long" without temporary support, citing carbon costs that exceed those faced by overseas competitors until the UK's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) takes effect. ExxonMobil's 270,000 b/d Fawley refinery — the UK's largest — will spend $70mn-80mn on carbon costs this year, rising to $150mn within five years, the company's UK chair Paul Greenwood told MPs during an Energy Security and Net Zero Committee hearing in October. Fuels Industry UK chief executive Elizabeth de Jong also addressed the committee, highlighting broader cost pressures. It remains unclear whether refined fuels will be covered by the UK CBAM, which starts in January 2027. Fuels Industry UK is seeking confirmation that they be included from January 2028, and it wants additional free UK ETS allowances distributed to sectors not covered by CBAM during a "volatile" period linked to expected UK-EU carbon market linkage. Such linkage would exempt UK and EU from each other's CBAMs, but talks have yet to start. UK refiners have also missed out on government energy price support schemes during the gas price surge triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, de Jong told MPs. Refiners paid market rates to power operations at their UK sites, missing out on discounts afforded to UK companies under the Energy Bill Relief Scheme, which ran between October 2022-March 2023, and then under the Energy Bills Discount Scheme between April 2023-March 2024. By contrast, US refiners access natural gas at roughly one-third of UK prices, Greenwood said. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

TKW-Frachtkosten steigen 2026

25/12/23

TKW-Frachtkosten steigen 2026

Hamburg, 23 December (Argus) — Die Kosten für den Transport von Heizöl, Diesel und Benzin per Tankkraftwagen steigen im kommenden Jahr vielerorts an. Dies ist primär auf höhere Dieselkosten infolge der steigenden CO2-Bepreisung und THG-Erfüllungskosten zurückzuführen. Auch ein stetiger Anstieg der Lohnkosten sowie Investitionen in die Flottendekarbonisierung treiben die Kosten weiter. Anbieter handeln Diesel für Januar bundesweit derzeit mit einem Aufschlag in Höhe von etwa 10 €/100l bis 13 €/100l gegenüber Dezemberware. Der Grund hierfür ist der Anstieg der CO2- und THG-Kosten im neuen Jahr. Viele Transportverträge enthalten sogenannte Floater-Klauseln, die Preisänderungen beim Kraftstoff automatisch auf die vereinbarten Frachtkosten übertragen. Somit geben Spediteure Mehrkosten durch steigende Kraftstoffpreise in der Regel an ihre Kunden weiter. Um welchen Betrag die Frachtkosten tatsächlich ansteigen werden ist aber noch unklar, denn neben dem höheren Dieselpreis belasten unter anderem auch steigende Personalkosten die Branche. Der Fahrermangel setzt sich fort und wird aktuell durch Krankheitsausfälle sowie die laufende Urlaubszeit zusätzlich verstärkt. Spediteure berichten zudem, dass die Nachwuchssuche zunehmend schwierig wird. Viele Beschäftigte werden in den kommenden Jahren in den Ruhestand gehen. Um dem entgegenzuwirken, erhöhen Speditionsunternehmen Löhne oder werben verstärkt Personal im Ausland an — Maßnahmen, die ebenfalls kostentreibend wirken. Auch Investitionen in die Dekarbonisierung der Flotten wirken sich auf die Kostenstrukturen aus. Die Anschaffung emissionsärmerer Fahrzeuge sowie zusätzliche technische Anforderungen und Dokumentationspflichten führen zu höheren Grundkosten, die in den Frachtraten berücksichtigt werden müssen. Einige Händler berichten jedoch, dass ein Anstieg ihrer Frachtkosten im kommenden Jahr bislang noch ausbleibt. Dies führen sie auf bestehende Vertragsstrukturen zurück. So verfügen manche Spediteure über längerfristige Vereinbarungen, teilweise mit Laufzeiten von mehreren Jahren, wodurch kurzfristige Kostensteigerungen zunächst abgefedert werden. Von Marcel Pott Senden Sie Kommentare und fordern Sie weitere Informationen an feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Alle Rechte vorbehalten.

Viewpoint: Rising premium base oil supply to target EU

25/12/23

Viewpoint: Rising premium base oil supply to target EU

London, 23 December (Argus) — European premium base oil spot prices could face downwards pressure in 2026 from increased competition as global supply rises and import duties are removed. Average Group II European spot prices have fallen steadily since the end of April, by 14pc to €932.50/t assessed on 12 December. This is mostly owing to muted demand but exacerbated by a weakening US dollar against the euro as volumes are bought on a dollar basis and sold in euros in Europe. A persistent supply overhang from the US saw exporters increasingly target European buyers. This trend looks to continue into 2026 as the EU looks to remove a 3.7pc import duty on US Group II shipments. This is part of EU-US tariff negotiations, with EU states showing broad support for the duty removal of a large package of US goods, including base oils. A European parliament vote on this is slated to take place, probably in late January. Europe is a net importer of Group II base oils, with ExxonMobil's 1mn t/yr refinery in Rotterdam the only northwest European production site. Base oil and finished lubricants exports to the EU and UK made up on average 14pc of US total exports since 2020, EIA data show. Freight rates will again play a part in deciding how much product arrives in Europe in 2026. Rates from the US to Europe have been falling since the summer. Argus assessed 40,000t specialised chemical tankers on the route at an average $38.08/t in October, down by 15pc from August, and 5,000t part-cargo assessed rates fell by 10pc in the same time to average $69.50/t. Should rates continue to fall and the EU remove duties, US shipments to Europe are likely to increase. European prices are the highest globally. Supplies of N600 are at a $463.50/t premium to US equivalents and at a $404.50/t premium to Asia bulk, as assessed on 12 December. Global Group II production is likely to rise in 2026. Polish refiner Orlen will expand its Gdansk facility with an additional 450,000 t/yr, Saudi Arabia's Luberef will expand its Yanbu refinery by 100,000 t/yr, and ExxonMobil's Jurong, Singapore, plant expansion is slated to come online fully by year-end 2025. All these will probably target the highest price region, Europe, for their additional capacity. Spot prices for Group I are also ending 2025 on a downwards trend, as weak demand offsets structurally tighter supply. But this could reverse in early 2026. Orlen will undergo a refinery-wide maintenance for 60 days in the first quarter, affecting output at its 250,000 t/yr Group I unit at Gdansk. EU sanctions on refined products using Russian crude has seen diesel prices rise. The price spread of the premiums Group I SN 150 and diesel carry over the feedstock vacuum gasoil (VGO) narrowed to average $95/t in November, from $233/t in August. Should this continue refiners are likely to prioritise diesel output over base oils. Several European refiners are already pivoting away from base oil production, curbing supply availability and adding upward price pressure. But minimal scheduled maintenances in 2026 is likely to enable supply to recover, and a weak economic outlook should see demand remaining steady. By Gabriella Twining Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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