Морской экспорт Юралс снизится в начале августа

: Crude oil
20/07/16

Поставки морских партий Юралс из России 1—5 августа уменьшатся на 14% относительно текущего месяца, примерно до 660 тыс. барр./сут., согласно позиционным графикам отгрузок. Но трейдеры не исключают, что экспорт российского сорта по итогам следующего месяца может вырасти вследствие увеличения добычи в рамках нового этапа соглашения ОПЕК+.

Отгрузки из балтийских портов в начале августа снизятся примерно на 25% по сравнению со средним уровнем июля, почти до 430 тыс. барр./сут. Сокращение придется на Приморск — на 52%, примерно до 145 тыс. барр./сут. В Усть-Луге поставки, наоборот, вырастут на 3,3%, почти до 290 тыс. барр./сут. Отгрузки сорта из Новороссийска также увеличатся в начале августа на 21%, до 230 тыс. барр./сут.

Морской экспорт Юралс в текущем месяце должен сократиться на 41% к уровню июня, до 770 тыс. барр./сут. (3,32 млн т). Это станет минимальным уровнем как минимум с 2002 г.

Россия в августе сможет повысить объемы производства нефти примерно на 400 тыс. барр./сут. в рамках нового этапа соглашения ОПЕК+, заявил в среду министр энергетики Александр Новак. Квота России в ОПЕК+ по добыче нефти на май — июль составляет 8,492 млн барр./сут. С 1 августа она увеличится до 8,993 млн барр./сут., или на 501 тыс. барр./сут.

Возможный рост отгрузок может оказать давление на стоимость Юралс в условиях слабого спроса на сорт в Европе из-за низкой маржинальности переработки. Премия на Юралс в Северо-Западной Европе к середине июля снизилась на $2,15/барр. по сравнению с рекордной ценой в конце июня, до $0,30/барр. (cif Роттердам) к Североморскому датированному. Стоимость партий сорта объемом 80—100 тыс. т в Средиземноморье также уменьшилась на $1,55/барр., до премии $1,20/барр. (cif Аугуста).

Диана Мухаметзянова

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Больше новостей, ценовой информации и аналитических материалов об экспорте нефти из России — в издании «Argus Экспорт нефти».

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Дифференциал Юралс к Североморскому датированному $/барр.

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