Hurricane Laura slams Louisiana coast as cat 4 storm

  • : Crude oil, LPG, Natural gas, Oil products, Petrochemicals
  • 20/08/27

Industries from Beaumont, Texas, to Lake Charles, Louisiana, will begin assessing damage this morning from Hurricane Laura, the most powerful hurricane on record to hit the region.

The storm came ashore near Cameron, Louisiana, about 35 miles (56km) east of the Texas-Louisiana border at about 2am ET this morning as a category four storm, bringing 20-foot (6m) tidal surges and 150 mph (241 km/h) winds. More than a half-million residents of coastal counties and parishes fled ahead of the storm, while more than 10pc of US refining capacity was taken off line in preparation.

Energy industry facilities most at risk from the storm include up to 2.2mn b/d of refining capacity near Lake Charles and the Beaumont- Port Arthur area, as well as ports and terminals responsible for 20pc of US crude exports this year. Sempra Energy's Cameron LNG terminal and Cheniere Energy's Sabine Pass LNG terminal were also in harm's way, as well as countless petrochemical sites, terminals, ports and businesses that support the Gulf coast energy complex.

In addition to damaging winds, high waters may threaten to swamp many facilities. The National Hurricane Center predicted 15-20 feet of water may have pushed in at Calcasieu Lake, south of Lake Charles, and 10-15 feet of water at Sabine Lake south of Port Arthur and Beaumont.

About 84pc of of US Gulf of Mexico crude production — or 1.6mn b/d — has been shut in since 25 August, according to the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE). Laura was preceded by tropical storm Marco, which came ashore nearby in central Louisiana before breaking apart.

The shut-in production helped lift trade volumes for Heavy Louisiana Sweet (HLS) crude for October to the highest daily total in 15 years yesterday, the first day of the trade month.

The track Hurricane Laura followed was similar to one taken by Hurricane Rita in 2005, which led to an estimated $18bn in damages and more than 120 fatalities. Laura's route spared Houston, Texas — the fourth-largest city in the US and home to the single largest cluster of refineries and petrochemical plants in the country.

US refineries in path of Hurricane Laura'000 b/d
RefinerCapacity
Shut or reduced capacity
Citgo Lake Charles425.0
Phillips 66 Lake Charles249.0
Motiva Port Arthur600.0
Total Port Arthur240.0
ExxonMobil Beaumont362.0
Valero Port Arthur325.0
Total2,201.0

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24/05/02

CEE gas operators begin binding capacity offer process

CEE gas operators begin binding capacity offer process

London, 2 May (Argus) — Gas transmission system operators (TSOs) across central and eastern Europe have launched the start of binding incremental capacity processes aimed at facilitating larger gas flows from south to north. Romanian, Bulgarian, Hungarian, Moldovan and Ukrainian operators have published joint documents outlining the necessary conditions for participating in the upcoming annual auctions on 1 July. Bulgarian and Romanian TSOs Bulgartransgaz and Transgaz will offer an additional roughly 123 GWh/d of capacity from Bulgaria to Romania at Negru Voda 1-Kardam on top of existing available capacity of 126-142 GWh/d depending on the year ( see BG-RO table ). In the event of a successful auction and subsequent economic test, the TSOs hope to reach a final investment decision (FID) in the third quarter of this year and commission the upgrades in the third quarter of 2026. Commercial operations could begin in the fourth quarter, aligning with the start of the 2026-27 gas year. This timeline has been moved forward by one year from the original proposals earlier this year . Transgaz, along with Hungary's FGSZ, will offer up to 73 GWh/d of additional capacity from Romania to Hungary at Csanadpalota on top of existing available capacity of 5-71 GWh/d depending on the year ( see RO-HU table ), but maintained its three-tiered approach elaborated in an earlier market consultation . Depending on the level of capacity to which firms commit at the auction, capacity could increase by 9.5 GWh/d, 47.3 GWh/d or 72.5 GWh/d. The smallest project could start commercial operations in the first quarter of 2028, the middle level in the third quarter of 2028, and the highest level in the third quarter of 2029. These timelines are pushed back by roughly one year from the originally-proposed dates in the February consultation. And Transgaz, along with Ukraine's GTSOU, will offer an additional 77 GWh/d of capacity from Romania to Ukraine at Isaccea 1-Orlovka 1 on top of existing available capacity of 97-109 GWh/d depending on the year ( see RO-UA table ). The TSOs aim to reach FID in the third quarter of this year and commission the project in the fourth quarter of 2028. Commercial operations could begin in October 2028. GTSOU and its Moldovan counterpart Vestmoldtransgaz will offer 173 GWh/d towards Moldova from Ukraine at Kaushany starting from the 2027-28 gas year, while simultaneously offering 159 GWh/d of capacity from Moldova towards Ukraine at Grebenyky. By Brendan A'Hearn Available and incremental capacity at Negru Voda/Kardam GWh/d/yr Gas year Available existing cap Incremental cap Total 2024-25 141 - 141 2025-26 141 - 141 2026-27 142 123 265 2027-28 142 123 265 2028-29 142 123 265 2029-30-2042 126 123 249 — Bulgartransgaz, Transgaz; numbers rounded Available and incremental capacity at Csanadpalota GWh/d/yr Gas year Available existing cap Incremental cap Total 2024-25 43 - 43 2025-26 46 - 46 2026-27 71 - 71 2027-28 13 - 142 2028-29 13 - 13 2029-30 5 73 78 2030-31 34 73 107 2031-32 34 73 107 2032-33-2039 63 73 136 — FGSZ, Transgaz; numbers rounded Available and incremental capacity at Isaccea/Orlovka GWh/d/yr Gas year Available existing cap Incremental cap Total 2024-25 109 - 109 2025-26 109 - 109 2026-27 109 - 109 2027-28 109 - 186 2028-29 109 77 186 2029-30-2039 97 77 174 — GTSOU, Transgaz; numbers rounded Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Abu Dhabi’s Adnoc puts crude capacity at 4.85mn b/d


24/05/02
24/05/02

Abu Dhabi’s Adnoc puts crude capacity at 4.85mn b/d

Dubai, 2 May (Argus) — Abu Dhabi's state-owned Adnoc has nudged up its self-reported crude production capacity to 4.85mn b/d, from 4.65mn b/d previously. The UAE state energy giant did not formally announce the increase but updated the figure on its website. It did something similar when its capacity reached 4.65mn b/d in late 2023, up from 4.5mn b/d in the middle of last year. This latest hike takes the company a step closer to its long-term 5mn b/d crude capacity target, which it aims to reach by 2027. Adnoc set the 5mn b/d target back in 2018 when its capacity was 3.5mn b/d. At that time, the company said it was aiming to deliver the increase by 2030, but in November 2022 it brought the timeframe forward by three years, citing the "UAE's robust hydrocarbon reserves". The change in timeline had been expected, with sources telling Argus earlier that year that discussions had been taking place in the upper echelons of Adnoc about significantly accelerating its capacity growth plans . Given the speed at which the company has been delivering capacity gains over the past few years, and how close it is to meeting its target already, it is not inconceivable that Adnoc will reach 5mn b/d ahead of schedule. Put your best foot forward The UAE's rising capacity comes as Opec+ producers engage with independent agencies to update their respective crude output capacities for use in production policy decisions from 2025. At their meeting in June last year, all Opec+ members committed to undergo an external assessment of their sustainable capacities in the first half of 2024 by three independent consultancies, IHS, Wood Mackenzie and Rystad. The updated capacity assessment will help address a key criticism of the Opec+ production restraint agreements in their current format, namely that many of the countries involved have been cutting output from a baseline level of production that they can no longer actually deliver, in most cases due to natural decline. The UAE has been one of a handful of countries in the group that has been raising its capacity over the past few years. This means it should, in theory, benefit from the latest assessment, as a higher accepted capacity will afford it a higher production baseline under any Opec+ agreements struck from 2025 onwards. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Shell's 1Q profit supported by LNG and refining


24/05/02
24/05/02

Shell's 1Q profit supported by LNG and refining

London, 2 May (Argus) — Shell delivered a better-than-expected profit for the first quarter of 2024, helped by a strong performance from its LNG and oil product businesses. The company reported profit of $7.4bn for January-March, up sharply from an impairment-hit $474mn in the previous three months but down from $8.7bn in the first quarter of 2023. Adjusted for inventory valuation effects and one-off items, Shell's profit came in at $7.7bn, 6pc ahead of the preceding three months and above analysts' estimates of $6.3bn-$6.5bn, although it was 20pc lower than the first quarter of 2023 when gas prices were higher. Shell's oil and gas production increased by 3pc on the quarter in January-March and was broadly flat compared with a year earlier at 2.91mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d). For the current quarter, Shell expects production in a range of 2.55mn-2.81mn boe/d, reflecting the effect of scheduled maintenance across its portfolio. The company's Integrated Gas segment delivered a profit of $2.76bn in the first quarter, up from $1.73bn in the previous three months and $2.41bn a year earlier. The segment benefited from increased LNG volumes — 7.58mn t compared to 7.06mn t in the previous quarter and 7.19mn t a year earlier — as well as favourable deferred tax movements and lower operating expenses. For the current quarter, Shell expects to produce 6.8mn-7.4mn t of LNG. In the downstream, the company's Chemicals and Products segment swung to a profit of $1.16bn during the quarter from an impairment-driven loss of $1.83bn in the previous three months, supported by a strong contribution from oil trading operations and higher refining margins driven by greater utilisation of its refineries and global supply disruptions. Shell's refinery throughput increased to 1.43mn b/d in the first quarter from 1.32mn b/d in fourth quarter of last year and 1.41mn b/d in January-March 2023. Shell has maintained its quarterly dividend at $0.344/share. It also said it has completed the $3.5bn programme of share repurchases that it announced at its previous set of results and plans to buy back another $3.5bn of its shares before the company's next quarterly results announcement. The company said it expects its capital spending for the year to be within a $22bn-$25bn range. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US southbound barge demand falls off earlier than usual


24/05/01
24/05/01

US southbound barge demand falls off earlier than usual

Houston, 1 May (Argus) — Southbound barge rates in the US have fallen on unseasonably low demand because of increased competition in the international grain market. Rates for voyages down river have deteriorated to "unsustainable" levels, said American Commercial Barge Line. Southbound rates declined in April to an average tariff of 284pc across all rivers this April, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), which is below breakeven levels for many barge carriers. Rates typically do not fall below a 300pc tariff until May or June. Southbound freight values for May are expected to hold steady or move lower, said sources this week. Southbound activity has increased recently because of the low rates, but not enough to push prices up. The US has already sold 84pc of its forecast corn exports and 89pc of forecast soybean exports with only five months left until the end of the corn and soybean marketing year, according to the USDA. US corn and soybean prices have come down since the beginning of the year in order to stay competitive with other origins. The USDA lowered its forecast for US soybean exports by 545,000t in its April report as soybeans from Brazil and Argentina were more competitively priced. US farmers are holding onto more of their harvest from last year because of low crop prices, curbing exports. Prompt CBOT corn futures averaged $435/bushel in April, down 34pc from April 2023. Weak southbound demand could last until fall when the US enters harvest season and exports ramp up southbound barge demand. Major agriculture-producing countries such as Argentina and Brazil are expected to export their grain harvest before the US. Brazil has finished planting corn on time . unlike last year. The US may face less competition from Brazil in the fall as a result. Carriers are tying up barges earlier than usual to avoid losses on southbound barge voyages. Carriers that have already parked their barges will take their time re-entering the market unless tariffs become profitable again. The carriers who remain on the river will gain more southbound market share and possibly more northbound spot interest. By Meghan Yoyotte and Eduardo Gonzalez Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US Fed signals rates likely to stay high for longer


24/05/01
24/05/01

US Fed signals rates likely to stay high for longer

Houston, 1 May (Argus) — Federal Reserve policymakers signaled they are likely to hold rates higher for longer until they are confident inflation is slowing "sustainably" towards the 2pc target. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds target rate unchanged at a 23-year high of 5.25-5.5pc, for the sixth consecutive meeting. This followed 11 rate increases from March 2022 through July 2023 that amounted to the most aggressive hiking campaign in four decades. "We don't think it would be appropriate to dial back our restrictive policy stance until we've gained greater confidence that inflation is moving down sustainably," Fed chair Jerome Powell told a press conference after the meeting. "It appears it'll take longer to reach the point of confidence that rate cuts will be in scope." In a statement the FOMC cited a lack of further progress towards the committee's 2pc inflation objective in recent months as part of the decision to hold the rate steady. Despite this, the FOMC said the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals "have moved toward better balance over the past year," shifting prior language that said the goals "are moving into better balance." The decision to keep rates steady was widely expected. CME's FedWatch tool, which tracks fed funds futures trading, had assigned a 99pc probability to the Fed holding rates steady today while giving 58pc odds of rate declines beginning at the 7 November meeting. In March, Fed policymakers had signaled they believed three quarter points cuts were likely this year. Inflation has ticked up lately after falling from four-decade highs in mid-2022. The consumer price index inched back up to an annual 3.5pc in March after reaching a recent low of 3pc in June 2023. The employment cost index edged up in the first quarter to the highest in a year. At the same time, job growth, wages and demand have remained resilient. The Fed also said it would begin slowing the pace of reducing its balance sheet of Treasuries and other notes in June, partly to avoid stress in money markets. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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