Aid, grain rally whittle away US farmer loan demand

  • : Agriculture, Fertilizers
  • 20/12/01

Demand for loans in key US agricultural districts has slumped to a seven-year low on a prolonged grain rally and mounting federal aid, but the unpredictability of Covid-19's impact on future conditions has restricted long-term optimism among farm bankers.

Surveys conducted by the Federal Reserve Banks of Minneapolis, Chicago and Kansas City showed farm demand for new non-real-estate loans contracted in the third quarter to the lowest level since 2013, as record government aid compounded with corn futures surging past $4/bushel and soybean values breaching $11/bushel.

Front-month corn and soybean futures have sustained a three-month rally on strengthening global demand, primarily concentrated in China, while livestock and dairy prices have incrementally recovered from the early-year doldrums spurred by the pandemic.

Strengthening agricultural markets have coupled with more than $35bn of federal aid to buoy farm earnings in 2020, increase cash flow and improve credit conditions, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Nevertheless, loan repayments were stable-to-lower from a year ago.

Dependence on ad-hoc federal aid in farm income — which doubled over the last three years to 9pc of gross income in 2020, according to the USDA — is cause for concern. With most aid exclusive to this season, uncertainty over future aid continues to cloud future lending conditions, according to the Kansas City Federal Reserve.

Fourth-quarter and 2021 outlooks remain muddied among districts because of uncertain government participation next year. The Chicago Federal Reserve bankers anticipate loan repayments to slip in the fall and winter, with asset liquidation to increase during the next 3-6 months. Meanwhile, only a fifth of bankers surveyed by the Kansas City Federal Reserve anticipate repayment rates to slip.


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24/05/02

Canadian rail workers vote to launch strike: Correction

Canadian rail workers vote to launch strike: Correction

Corrects movement of grain loadings from a year earlier in final paragraph. Washington, 2 May (Argus) — Workers at the two major Canadian railroads could go on strike as soon as 22 May now that members of the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) have authorized a strike, potentially causing widespread disruption to shipments of commodities such as crude, coal and grain. A strike could disrupt rail traffic not only in Canada but also in the US and Mexico because trains would not be able to leave, nor could shipments enter into Canada. This labor action could be far more impactful than recent strikes because it would affect Canadian National (CN) and Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) at the same time. Union members at Canadian railroads have gone on strike individually in the past, which has left one of the two carriers to continue operating and handle some of their competitor's freight. But TCRC members completed a vote yesterday about whether to initiate a strike action at each carrier. The union represents about 9,300 workers employed at the two railroads. Roughly 98pc of union members that participated voted in favor of a strike beginning as early as 22 May, the union said. The union said talks are at an impasse. "After six months of negotiations with both companies, we are no closer to reaching a settlement than when we first began, TCRC president Paul Boucher said. Boucher warned that "a simultaneous work stoppage at both CN and CPKC would disrupt supply chains on a scale Canada has likely never experienced." He added that the union does not want to provoke a rail crisis and wants to avoid a work stoppage. The union has argued that the railroads' proposals would harm safety practices. It has also sought an improved work-life balance. But CN and CPKC said the union continues to reject their proposals. CPKC "is committed to negotiating in good faith and responding to our employees' desire for higher pay and improved work-life balance, while respecting the best interests of all our railroaders, their families, our customers, and the North American economy." CN said it wants a contract that addresses the work life balance and productivity, benefiting the company and employees. But even when CN "proposed a solution that would not touch duty-rest rules, the union has rejected it," the railroad said. Canadian commodity volume has fallen this year with only rail shipments of chemicals, petroleum and petroleum products, and non-metallic minerals rising, Association of American Railroads (AAR) data show. Volume data includes cars loaded in the US by Canadian carriers. Coal traffic dropped by 11pc during the 17 weeks ended on 27 April compared with a year earlier, AAR data show. Loadings of motor vehicles and parts have fallen by 5.2pc. CN and CPKC grain loadings fell by 4.3pc from a year earlier, while shipment of farm products and food fell by 9.3pc. By Abby Caplan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

India’s Coromandel to build Kakinada fertilizer complex


24/05/02
24/05/02

India’s Coromandel to build Kakinada fertilizer complex

Singapore, 2 May (Argus) — Indian fertilizer producer Coromandel International will build a 650 t/d phosphoric acid-sulphuric acid complex facility in Kakinada, Andhra Pradesh with an investment of approximately 10bn rupees ($120mn). The project is expected to commission in two years' time, CIL's executive chairman Arun Alagappan said on 26 April. Phosphoric acid and sulphuric acid are used in the production of phosphate fertilizers like DAP and NPKs. CIL's new phosphoric acid facility aims to provide for its fertilizer manufacturing and to replace more than 50pc of the plant's import requirements. It also plans to build a 1,800 t/d sulphuric acid plant to supplement phosphoric acid production. By Deon Ngee Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US southbound barge demand falls off earlier than usual


24/05/01
24/05/01

US southbound barge demand falls off earlier than usual

Houston, 1 May (Argus) — Southbound barge rates in the US have fallen on unseasonably low demand because of increased competition in the international grain market. Rates for voyages down river have deteriorated to "unsustainable" levels, said American Commercial Barge Line. Southbound rates declined in April to an average tariff of 284pc across all rivers this April, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), which is below breakeven levels for many barge carriers. Rates typically do not fall below a 300pc tariff until May or June. Southbound freight values for May are expected to hold steady or move lower, said sources this week. Southbound activity has increased recently because of the low rates, but not enough to push prices up. The US has already sold 84pc of its forecast corn exports and 89pc of forecast soybean exports with only five months left until the end of the corn and soybean marketing year, according to the USDA. US corn and soybean prices have come down since the beginning of the year in order to stay competitive with other origins. The USDA lowered its forecast for US soybean exports by 545,000t in its April report as soybeans from Brazil and Argentina were more competitively priced. US farmers are holding onto more of their harvest from last year because of low crop prices, curbing exports. Prompt CBOT corn futures averaged $435/bushel in April, down 34pc from April 2023. Weak southbound demand could last until fall when the US enters harvest season and exports ramp up southbound barge demand. Major agriculture-producing countries such as Argentina and Brazil are expected to export their grain harvest before the US. Brazil has finished planting corn on time . unlike last year. The US may face less competition from Brazil in the fall as a result. Carriers are tying up barges earlier than usual to avoid losses on southbound barge voyages. Carriers that have already parked their barges will take their time re-entering the market unless tariffs become profitable again. The carriers who remain on the river will gain more southbound market share and possibly more northbound spot interest. By Meghan Yoyotte and Eduardo Gonzalez Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Turkey’s TMO sells 100,000t of durum wheat in tender


24/05/01
24/05/01

Turkey’s TMO sells 100,000t of durum wheat in tender

London, 1 May (Argus) — Turkish grain board TMO has sold 100,000t of durum wheat in its 30 April export tender, at a lower price than its previous sale in February. TMO sold one 50,000t cargo of 75pc vitreous durum wheat to trading firm Viterra at $377.10/t fob Iskenderun, and one 25,000t cargo to trading firm Casillo at $380/t fob Mersin. The board also sold 25,000t of 50pc vitreous durum wheat to Viterra at $328/t fob Mersin. The 100,000t represents the full volume offered under the board's initial tender. All three cargoes are set to ship between 20 May and 12 June. Tuesday's 70pc vitreous sale fob Iskenderun falls $27.70/t below TMO's previous sale on the same basis. As for 50pc vitreous fob Mersin, Tuesday's cargo changed hands at $36/t below TMO's equivalent sale in February. That said, Turkish durum did not calculate into Algeria's latest OAIC tender, which booked Mexican-origin product at $395-410/t cfr last week, market participants said. Turkey might have to lower durum values to compete with offered levels from Mexico and Canada, who have comfortable available supplies. Of the 5.1mn t of durum forecast to be exported from Canada in 2023-24 (August-July), a little over half has been exported in the year to date, figures from the Canadian Grain Commission show. Turkey exported about 1.6mn t of durum wheat in the 2023-24 marketing year (beginning June 2023) to March, latest available customs data show. And in the upcoming 2024-25 marketing year, the US Department of Agriculture pegs Turkish durum exports at about 2mn t. These latest sales could boost current-year export volumes in the final month of the marketing year, or kick off Turkey's shipments for the new marketing year. By Megan Evans Grains, oilseeds and veg oils tenders Buyer Issued Closes Status Cargo Shipment/delivery Price Seller Notes Jordan's MIT 1-May 7-May Open 100,000-120,000t milling wheat Jun-Jul cfr Aqaba Jordan's MIT 24-Apr 30-Apr Cancelled 100,000-120,000t milling wheat cfr Aqaba Turkey's TMO 25-Apr 30-Apr Closed To export 100,000t durum wheat 20 May-12 Jun $328/t (50pc vit.), $377.10-$380/t (75pc vit.) TMO Sell tender. Buyers Casillo and Viterra. Fob Iskenderun, Mersin Algeria's OAIC 22-Apr 24-Apr Closed 200,000t durum wheat Jun $395-410/t cfr Jordan's MIT 18-Apr 24-Apr Closed 60,000t 16-31 Jul $217/t Al Dhara cfr Aqaba Jordan's MIT 17-Apr 23-Apr Cancelled 100,000-120,000t milling wheat Jun-Jul cfr Aqaba Japan's Maff 16-Apr 18-Apr Closed 94,612t milling wheat Jun US (WW-15,212t; HRW-19,060t), CA (60,340t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US Treasury updates SAF tax credit guidelines


24/04/30
24/04/30

US Treasury updates SAF tax credit guidelines

Houston, 30 April (Argus) — The US Treasury Department released long-awaited guidance on tax credit eligibility for ethanol-derived sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) Tuesday, incorporating so-called climate-smart agricultural (CSA) practices. As part of the new guidance, the agencies comprising the SAF Interagency Working Group (IWG) are jointly releasing the 40B SAF-GREET 2024 model, which provides another methodology for SAF producers to determine lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions rates of their production for the credit. It also incorporates a pilot program to encourage the usage of CSA practices for SAF feedstocks. In collaboration with the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), the major changes include further guidance on farming practices, including no-till farming, planting cover crops and enhanced efficiency fertilizer. The $1.25/USG 40B SAF credit applies to a qualified fuel mixture containing SAF for certain sales or uses after 31 December 2022, and before 1 January 2025. To qualify for the credit, the SAF must have a minimum lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions reduction of 50pc compared with petroleum-based jet fuel. Additionally, there is a supplemental credit of one cent for each percent that the reduction exceeds 50pc, for a maximum credit of $1.75/USG. The modified version of the Greenhouse gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy use in Technologies (GREET) also incorporates new data, including updated modeling of key feedstocks and processes used in aviation fuel and indirect emissions. The modified GREET model also integrates key GHG emission reduction strategies, such as carbon capture and storage, renewable natural gas, and renewable electricity. The notice provides a safe harbor for use of the USDA Climate Smart Agriculture Pilot Program to further cut the emissions reduction percentage calculated for domestic soybean and domestic corn feedstocks and for certifying the related requirements. For corn ethanol-to-jet, the pilot provides a greenhouse gas reduction credit if a "bundle" of certain CSA practices — no-till farming, cover crop planting, and enhanced efficiency fertilizer — are used. It would also allow a greenhouse gas reduction credit for soybean-to-jet production if the soybean feedstock is produced using similar CSA practices. This is a pilot program specific to the 40B credit under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which is in effect for 2023 and 2024. A new 45Z-GREET will be developed for use with the 45Z tax credit, which starts on 1 Jan 2025. Given the similar language between section 40B and section 45Z of the IRA regarding methods for determining lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions reduction percentages, it is expected that the positions taken by Treasury and the IRS related to the section 40B credit will be similar for the new clean fuel producer credit under section 45Z. Industry reaction mixed Renewable fuels groups welcome the updated pathway for ethanol-to-jet, but the groups expressed concern over the scope of the guidance. "We are encouraged that, for the first time ever, this carbon scoring framework will recognize and credit certain climate-smart agricultural practices," Renewable Fuels Association president and chief executive Geoff Cooper said. "However, RFA believes less prescription on ag practices, more flexibility, and additional low-carbon technologies and practices should be added to the modeling framework to better reflect the innovation occurring throughout the supply chain." Kailee Buller, chief executive of the National Oilseed Processors Association, also said the new guidance has shortcomings. "We are concerned the requirement to implement climate-smart ag practices simultaneously will limit this opportunity, particularly in parts of the country where it may not be possible to plant a cover crop or the cost to implement new practices is too steep," Buller said. Both groups said they would continue to work with the Biden administration to further opportunities for SAF development. By Matthew Cope and Payne Williams Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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