Viewpoint: USAC jet margins poised to rebound in 2021
US Atlantic coast jet fuel margins are poised to rebound in 2021, as the roll out of Covid-19 vaccines and general quarantine fatigue increases air travel despite health officials urging otherwise.
East coast jet fuel margins — as measured by subtracting North Sea Dated Brent crude oil prices from prompt New York Harbor jet fuel barge values — were down by more than $11/bl in 2020 in year-on-year comparison. Between 2 January and 29 December 2020, Atlantic coast jet fuel barges carried an average premium of $6.38/bl to North Sea Dated Brent, down from 2019's average price spread of $17.53/bl.
Poor margins led Atlantic coast refiners to dial back jet fuel yield to 2.6pc in September, compared to 11.5pc a year earlier, according to Energy Information Administration (EIA) data. Yields were negative or zero for four consecutive weeks in April and early May, indicating refiners were repurposing jet fuel to cut margin losses and avoid accumulating inventory.
As jet margins recover, refiners could increase yields while raising overall crude runs. East coast jet fuel production fell from 60,500 b/d in March to just 11,750 b/d in April before averaging negative during the month of May. Since then, monthly averages have risen gradually with east coast output averaging 39,667 b/d so far in December, according to EIA data.
Jet fuel demand is expected to grow next year as the coronavirus vaccine becomes more readily available. Both North Sea Dated and jet fuel prices have increased on vaccine-related news, with values rising by $7-8/bl so far this month from levels recorded in November. Through 29 December, regional margins have averaged $8.29/bl, up by $0.67/bl from the previous month.
In the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the EIA projects US jet fuel consumption to total 1.54mn b/d in 2021. Compared to 2019 levels, this forecast is down by 37.4pc. But compared to 2020 so far, demand is predicted to be nearly 42pc higher, even though the December STEO revised its 2021 jet fuel forecast 0.80pc lower from the November forecast.
The price of jet fuel for end users is expected to average $1.50/USG in 2021, according to STEO data, down by $0.47/USG from 2019 levels but $0.18/USG above 2020 values. Production is expected to rise with higher demand, with EIA projections for 2021 coming in at 1.59mn b/d, down by 11.7pc from 2019 levels but nearly 53pc above levels recorded in 2020.
The number of travelers passing through US airport checkpoints daily surpassed 1mn once in October, four times in November and seven times so far in December, according to Transportation Security Administration data. These 12 instances are the only times traveler throughput has exceeded 1mn since mid-March, but monthly numbers have improved steadily amid quarantine fatigue.
Since April, when daily traveler throughput fell by more than 90pc from March to an average of just 109,567 travelers per day, the number of travelers passing through US airports has risen every month since, last averaging 850,432 daily passengers in November.
But compared to 2019 levels, traveler throughput remains more than 50pc lower.
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G7 countries put timeframe on 'unabated' coal phase-out
G7 countries put timeframe on 'unabated' coal phase-out
London, 30 April (Argus) — G7 countries today committed to phasing out "unabated coal power generation" by 2035 — putting a timeframe on a coal phase-out for the first time. The communique, from a meeting of G7 climate, energy and environment ministers in Turin, northern Italy, represents "an historic agreement" on coal, Canadian environment minister Steven Guilbeault said. Although most G7 nations have set a deadline for phasing out coal-fired power, the agreement marks a step forward for Japan in particular, which had previously not made the commitment, and is a "milestone moment", senior policy advisor at think-tank E3G Katrine Petersen said. The G7 countries are Italy — this year's host — Canada, France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US. The EU is a non-enumerated member. But the pledge contains a caveat in its reference to "unabated" coal-fired power — suggesting that abatement technologies such as carbon capture and storage could justify its use, while some of the wording around a deadline is less clear. The communique sets a timeframe of "the first half of [the] 2030s or in a timeline consistent with keeping a limit of 1.5°C temperature rise within reach, in line with countries' net-zero pathways". OECD countries should end coal use by 2030 and the rest of the world by 2040, in order to align with the global warming limit of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels set out in the Paris Agreement, according to research institute Climate Analytics. The countries welcomed the outcomes of the UN Cop 28 climate summit , pledging to "accelerate the phase out of unabated fossil fuels so as to achieve net zero in energy systems by 2050". It backed the Cop 28 goal to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 and added support for a global target for energy storage in the power sector of 1.5TW by 2030. The group committed to submit climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — with "the highest possible ambition" from late this year or in early 2025. And it also called on the IEA to "provide recommendations" next year on how to implement a transition away from fossil fuels. The G7 also reiterated its commitment to a "fully or predominantly decarbonised power sector by 2035" — first made in May 2022 and highlighted roles for carbon management, carbon markets, hydrogen and biofuels. Simon Stiell, head of UN climate body the UNFCCC, urged the G7 and G20 countries to lead on climate action, in a recent speech . The group noted in today's outcome that "further actions from all countries, especially major economies, are required". The communique broadly reaffirmed existing positions on climate finance, although any concrete steps are not likely to be taken ahead of Cop 29 in November. The group underlined its pledge to end "inefficient fossil fuel subsidies" by 2025 or earlier, but added a new promise to "promote a common definition" of the term, which is likely to increase countries' accountability. The group will report on its progress towards ending those subsidies next year, it added. Fostering energy security The communique placed a strong focus on the need for "diverse, resilient, and responsible energy technology supply chains, including manufacturing and critical minerals". It noted the important of "guarding against possible weaponisation of economic dependencies on critical minerals and critical raw materials" — many of which are mined and processed outside the G7 group. Energy security held sway on the group's take on natural gas. It reiterated its stance that gas investments "can be appropriate… if implemented in a manner consistent with our climate objectives" and noted that increased LNG deliveries could play a key role. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Pemex fuel output surges, imports down in March
Pemex fuel output surges, imports down in March
Mexico City, 29 April (Argus) — Mexico's state-owned Pemex increased its gasoline and diesel output by 32pc in March from a year earlier, cutting its road fuels imports by 25pc year over year. Pemex's gasoline and diesel output at its six domestic refineries amounted to 562,300 b/d in March, up from 427,100 b/d in the same month of 2023, according to the company's monthly data published on 26 April. Gasoline production rose by 27pc to 350,400 b/d in March year over year. Gasoline output increased by 13pc from February. Pemex's gasoline imports fell by 16pc in March from a year prior, driven by increased domestic production. On a monthly basis, gasoline imports fell by 18pc from February. The company's diesel output surged by 40pc to 211,900 b/d in March year over year, driving imports down by 43pc to 112,500 b/d (see table) . Diesel production was 26pc higher in March compared with February. Road fuels output increased as Pemex's refining system processed 23pc more crude — 1.06mn b/d — in March from the prior year, as result of billion-dollar investments since 2019 to rehabilitate Pemex's refineries and a decline in crude exports . Pemex's regular 87-octane gasoline domestic sales remain almost steady at 527,400 b/d in March from a year earlier. In contrast, 92-octane premium gasoline sales rose by 11pc to 132,800 b/d year over year, as demand for premium gasoline in Mexico has increased this year. The company's diesel sales ticked up by 1pc in March from a year earlier and were 3pc above February sales. Pemex's domestic sales of refined products accounted for 75.6pc of the company's total revenue in the first quarter, Pemex said during its earnings call on 26 April. This compares to a 70.8pc share in full-year 2023, the company said. By Antonio Gozain Pemex fuel production, imports and sales '000 b/d Product Mar 24 Feb 24 Mar 23 YOY ±% Monthly ±% Production Gasoline 350 310 275.5 27.2 12.9 Diesel 212 168 152 39.8 26.0 LPG 110.0 104.0 100.3 9.7 5.8 Jet fuel 38 38 46 -17.1 1.6 Imports Gasoline 307 376 366.0 -16.1 -18.4 Diesel 112 119 196 -42.5 -5.1 LPG 69 100 101 -31.8 -31.1 Internal sales Regular gasoline 527 520 527 0.1 1.5 Premium gasoline 133 134 120 10.9 -0.7 Diesel 261.0 254.0 258 1.2 2.8 ULSD 30.0 28 32 -4.8 8.3 Jet fuel 95 97 94 1.0 -2.3 LPG 167 194 164 2.0 -13.8 Jet fuel and premium gasoline imports and ULSD imports and production are not broken out Pemex Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Norway's marine bio mandate ineffective: Marine market
Norway's marine bio mandate ineffective: Marine market
London, 29 April (Argus) — Norway's 6pc advanced biodiesel mandate for marine, which came into effect in October, has done little to incentivise the uptake of physical marine biodiesel blends at Norwegian ports, market participants told Argus . As of October 2023, bunker fuel suppliers in Norway must ensure that a minimum of 6pc, on a volume per volume basis, of the total amount of liquid fuels sold per year consists of advanced biofuel in the form of fatty acid methyl ester (Fame) or hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO). The mandate is only applicable to bunker fuels sold in the domestic market, impacting vessels operating between Norwegian ports as well as local tugboats, offshore supply barges, and fishing vessels. Market participants confirmed that the mandate operates on a mass-balance system at the moment, such that the mandate could also be met by supplying the equivalent amount of biofuels into the inland road sector. Consequently, participants said that very few buyers end up purchasing the physical marine biofuel blends, and instead marine fuel suppliers have had to utilise the mass-balance system to meet their mandated targets. This has resulted in a premium added onto conventional bunker fuels in Norwegian ports of about $56-60/t on average. A market participant described the current system as "like a CO2 tax", with most marine fuel buyers paying the premium rather than purchasing a marine biodiesel blend directly. Participants told Argus that HVO is popular and frequently used in road transport because of its superior specifications compared with biodiesel and its generally low freezing point. Norway's HVO imports typically originate from the US — Kpler data shows that about 68.4pc of HVO flows into Norway have originated from there this year. This is mainly because Norway does not apply the same anti-dumping measures as EU nations, which typically put a substantial premium on US-origin biodiesel imports. Norwegian shipowners going internationally are exempt from being liable to the additional premium imposed by the mandate. But participants told Argus that they usually have to pay the premium and then claim it back from the Norwegian Environment Agency (NEA). The system may change very soon. Market participants told Argus that the NEA is considering some changes to the mandate requirement. A gradual move away from the mass balance system is being discussed, in favour of a physical product mandate that would require biofuel blends to be sold to bunker fuel buyers. Further, a switch from an annual reporting system to a monthly one could also be on the cards. NEA is also reportedly looking at mandating the availability of marine biodiesel at all Norwegian ports and biodiesel fuel reconciliation at the tank rather than terminal. By Hussein Al-Khalisy Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
S Korea’s SK Innovation sees firm 2Q refining margins
S Korea’s SK Innovation sees firm 2Q refining margins
Singapore, 29 April (Argus) — South Korean refiner SK Innovation expects refining margins to remain elevated in this year's second quarter because of continuing firm demand, after achieving higher operating profits in the first quarter. SK expects demand to remain solid in the second quarter given a strong real economy, expectations of higher demand in emerging markets and continuing low official selling price (OSP) levels. This is despite the US Federal Reserve's high interest rate policy and oil price rallies, which are weighing on crude demand. The company's sales revenue dropped to 18.9 trillion won ($13.7bn) in the first quarter, down by 3.5pc on the previous quarter. Its energy and chemical sales accounted for 91pc of total revenue, while battery and material sales accounted for the remaining 9pc. But SK's operating profit increased to W624.7bn in January-March from W72.6bn the previous quarter. This came as its refining business flipped from an operating loss of W165bn in October-December to an operating profit of W591.1bn in the first quarter. SK attributed this increase to elevated refining margins because of higher oil prices, as well as Opec+ production cut agreements and OSP reductions. First-quarter gasoline refining margins almost doubled on the previous quarter from $7.60/bl to $13.30/bl, although diesel and kerosine edged down to $23.10/bl and $21.10/bl respectively. SK Innovation's 840,000 b/d Ulsan refinery operated at 85pc of its capacity in the fourth quarter, steady from 85pc in the previous quarter but higher than 82pc for all of 2023. The refiner's 275,000 b/d Incheon refinery's operating rate was at 88pc, up from 84pc in the fourth quarter and from 82pc in 2023. SK plans to carry out turnarounds at its 240,000 b/d No.4 crude distillation unit and No.1 residual hydrodesulphuriser, both at Ulsan, in the second quarter. Its No.2 paraxylene unit in Ulsan will have a turnaround in the same quarter. By Tng Yong Li Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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