IEA expects rapid 2H oil stocks decline

: Crude oil
21/02/11

The IEA expects a rapid drawdown of global oil stocks in July-December, but warned of a fragile outlook for demand recovery during the first half of the year.

A reduction in stocks could allow the Opec+ group to start unwinding cuts even if producers outside the alliance ramp up production faster than current projections, the Paris-based energy watchdog said today in its latest Oil Market Report (OMR).

The IEA lowered by 100,000 b/d its oil demand outlook for the current quarter, because of the rise of new Covid-19 variants. It now expects demand to reach 93.7mn b/d in January-March, down by 110,000 b/d on the year and a decline of 1mn b/d from the previous quarter.

But, a more positive global economic outlook and the roll-out of vaccination campaigns in many regions mean demand growth should accelerate faster than the usual quarterly increases in the second half of the year, it said. Its demand growth forecast for 2021 remains largely unchanged from the previous monthly report, at 5.4mn b/d on the year to 96.4mn b/d. Oil consumption in 2020 fell by a record 8.7mn b/d year on year, to 91mn b/d.

"Both the economic and demand forecasts are highly dependent on vaccination progress, sustained fiscal and monetary support, the easing of travel restrictions, and the revival of business activity across the world's major economies," the IEA said.

The IEA sees global oil supply rising by 1.6mn b/d this year, above last month's estimate of 1.2mn b/d, provided Opec+ continues to unwind production cuts, non-Opec producers ramp up production and Libya sustains its recovery. The IEA expects Opec+ to add 800,000 b/d of output this year.

Producers outside the alliance are responding to higher prices, although cautiously and from a low level, it said. The IEA expects these countries to increase output by 830,000 b/d this year, up by 290,000 b/d from its previous projection and compared with an annual decline of 1.3mn b/d in 2020.

"Canada, now pumping at record rates, has restored nearly all the volumes shut in at the height of last year's demand collapse," the IEA said.

OECD industry stocks fell in December for a fifth consecutive month to 3.06bn bl, 138.3mn bl above the five-year average. The IEA said global implied stock draws accelerated from 1.56mn b/d in the third quarter to 2.24mn b/d in the fourth quarter of 2020.

By Rowena Edwards

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25/12/23

Mexico's trade surplus widens in Nov

Mexico City, 23 December (Argus) — Mexico's trade surplus widened slightly in November from the previous month, despite sharp declines in both exports and imports in the non-oil category. Mexico posted a $663mn trade surplus in November, statistics agency Inegi said, up from a $606mn surplus in October, though on lower overall trade volumes. Total exports reached $56.4bn, while imports stood at $55.7bn, compared with $66.1bn and $65.5bn, respectively, in October. The result contrasted with the $391mn deficit forecast by Mexican bank Banorte. Inegi attributed the wider surplus to an increase in the non-oil trade surplus to $2.84bn in November from $2.74bn in October, alongside a widening of the oil trade deficit to $2.18bn from $2.13bn. Within non-oil trade, manufacturing exports fell by 16pc to $52.1bn in November from the prior month, while automotive exports declined by 2.2pc to $15.8bn, following a 4.8pc increase in October. The US absorbed 79pc of Mexico's light vehicle exports from January-November, with Mexico supplying 17pc of total US auto imports over the 11-month period, according to Mexican auto industry association AMDA. The "others" component of non-oil manufacturing exports dropped by 20pc to $36.3bn in November, nearly erasing October's 23pc gain to $45.5bn. The cumulative impact of US tariffs on Mexican goods is becoming clearer. Mexican bank Banco Base estimates the US levied an effective 4.69pc tariff on Mexican goods through September — below the 25pc blanket rate due to exemptions for goods complying with the USMCA free trade agreement. "The low tariffs have allowed Mexican exports to continue growing, particularly computer equipment, which rose by 83.39pc year to date through September compared with the same period in 2024, with a tariff of just 0.17pc," the bank said. Those "contrast sharply with passenger cars, which face a 15.29pc tariff," which maintain expectations of 7pc annual export growth in 2025, according to the bank. Agricultural exports rose by 3.8pc to $1.4bn in November after increases of 7.2pc in October and 4.1pc in September. Oil-related exports totaled $1.55bn in November, down from $1.82bn in October, including $1.03bn in crude and $514mn in refined products on lower prices and volumes. Mexico's crude export basket averaged $57.66/bl, down by $0.84/bl from October and $8.09/bl lower compared with a year earlier. Crude export volumes fell to 597,000 b/d in November from 717,000 b/d in October, remaining well below the 1.088mn b/d exported in November 2024. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Canadian heavy TMX crude to grow into Asia

25/12/23

Viewpoint: Canadian heavy TMX crude to grow into Asia

Houston, 23 December (Argus) — Heavy sour Canadian crude exports are likely to expand further into the Asia-Pacific market in 2026 as Canadian output increases and US west coast refinery closures weaken US demand. Around two-thirds of all Canadian crude exports from the 890,000 b/d Trans Mountain pipeline system were destined to Asia-Pacific year-to-date November 2025, with the balance heading to the US west coast. Just over three-quarters of the 375,000 b/d of Canadian heavy crude exports from Vancouver were destined to Asia-Pacific year-to-date November 2025, according to data from analytics firms Vortexa and Kpler. The balance out of the Trans Mountain system headed to the US west coast. This is up from a roughly 60/40 split in the second half of 2024 following the 540,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) startup in May of that year. US west coast customers received 80,000 b/d of heavy sour Canadian crude during the first 11 months of 2025, 25pc less than the second half of 2024. This is despite total heavy exports from Vancouver averaging 27pc higher this year so far. Heavy crude exports are expected to keep growing in 2026 as increased western Canadian production meets limited southbound pipeline capacity to the US. In January 2026, Canadian pipeline operator Enbridge rejected 13pc of heavy and light crude nominations on its 3.1mn b/d Mainline to the US as Alberta production surges in the colder months. But the Trans Mountain system has accepted all crude nominations since TMX came on line in May 2024 and the system has room to export more crude. Trans Mountain reported that the pipeline ran at 87pc capacity in the third quarter of 2025 . Canadian crude and condensate production is projected to average a record-high of 4.85mn b/d in 2026, 80,000 b/d above 2025 levels, according to Argus Consulting, a division of Argus Media. China thirst for heavy grows Any increase in exports is expected to head towards the Asia-Pacific region, specifically China. Chinese interest in heavy crude is expected to grow next year as refineries bring on line increasingly advanced cracking units to improve petrochemical yields . This increase in petrochemical output will come at the expense of road fuels, as rising electric vehicle use and low construction-sector activity hit Chinese gasoline and diesel demand. Heavy Canadian crude tends to be the most competitively-priced, unsanctioned option for Chinese refiners. Asia-Pacific buyers more generally have sought Canadian heavy crude as a substitute for restrained supplies of heavy sour Venezuelan Merey and Arab Heavy. Saudi Arabia's state-owned Saudi Aramco may be keeping more heavy crude for refining, while market confidence in Merey supply is weak following a US seizure of an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela on 10 December and the US declaring a blockage on Venezuela exports on 16 December. Meanwhile, shipments of Arab Heavy have dropped by 280,000 b/d to around 560,000 b/d this year, according to Vortexa data. As Asia-Pacific interest in Canadian crude continues to grow, US west coast demand will continue to fall. On the heels of Phillips 66 closing its 139,000 b/d Los Angeles, California, refinery, Valero is likely to shutter its 145,000 b/d Benicia refinery near San Francisco in April 2026. Valero is evaluating alternatives for its 85,000 b/d Wilmington refinery in Los Angeles. At the start of 2025, these three refineries made up 23pc of Californian refinery capacity, and combined took 30,000 b/d of Cold Lake during January-June 2025, according to EIA data. As available Canadian crude supplies grow, the ability to fully load Aframax vessels at the Westridge Marine Terminal in British Colombia will allow increased volumes to be exported. Dredging at the terminal is set to be completed by late 2026 or early 2027. Draft restrictions limit most Aframax vessels to around 550,000 bl at the terminal for heavy crude, and 600,000 bl for some lighter crudes. Post-dredging, those same ships could carry around 700,000-750,000 bl. In the long term, Trans Mountain is looking to boost pipeline flows to meet the increased shipping capacity, including the use of drag-reducing agents that should add another 85,000-90,000 b/d by 2027 to pipeline capacity, according to Trans Mountain. By John Cordner Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US shale firms see subdued spending next year

25/12/22

US shale firms see subdued spending next year

New York, 22 December (Argus) — US president Donald Trump took to prime-time TV this week to reassure voters that 2026 will see a stronger economy, but US shale executives see little prospect of an imminent upturn in their business. US oil and gas firms plan to keep capital spending flat to slightly lower next year, according to a closely watched survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, as the industry grapples with lower oil prices. Although activity edged lower in the fourth quarter, uncertainty grew and companies remained increasingly wary about future prospects in the poll of 131 executives from Texas, southern New Mexico and northern Louisiana that was carried out earlier this month. "Decreasing oil prices are making many of our firm's wells uneconomic," one exploration and production (E&P) executive said. "Capital efficiencies and returns drive our investment decisions," another respondent said. "If economic conditions worsen, drilling and completion activities will cease in 2026." The muted outlook for spending next year comes as producers have adopted a wait-and-see approach in recent months, given an increasingly uncertain macro backdrop, with crude prices trading near four-year lows this week on fears of global oversupply. A number of shale operators have posted higher-than-expected production this year. At the same time, spending has come in below expectations as drilling operations become more efficient, a trend UK bank Barclays says could be repeated in 2026. The executives who took part in the Dallas Fed survey gave varied responses when asked about their spending plans for next year depending on their size. Large producers — or those with output of 10,000 b/d or more — were more likely to say they expect capital expenditure to remain close to this year's levels. The most selected response among smaller firms — with production under 10,000 b/d — was for a slight increase. Although there are more small firms in the US, the larger companies account for more than 80pc of total US output. When asked about the oil price they were using for capital planning in 2026, the average response among executives was $59/bl for WTI. That was down from the $68/bl average price for the US benchmark that firms planned to use this year. The Dallas Fed said it was not necessarily a surprise that companies were not planning to trim spending further given weaker oil prices. Capital-intensive care "Oil and gas is a capital-intensive business," the bank's senior business economist, Kunal Patel, said. "It takes a lot of money to sustain the wells, even to keep production flat, and so that's why I don't think you're seeing as many people looking to significantly cut." Also, the prices that companies are using to plan next year's budgets are not too far from current breakeven levels. And producers may yet respond with deeper cuts to spending if prices tumble again. Oil and natural gas production was relatively unchanged in the fourth quarter, the survey showed, while costs rose at a slower pace than in the previous three months. "While oil prices have not been low enough this quarter to force a substantial cutback in activity, they were not high enough to support any growth either," Dallas Fed assistant vice-president Michael Plante said. In its annual E&P spending survey, Barclays expects upstream capital expenditure in North America to fall by 5pc in 2026, on lower US activity, reduced reinvestment ratios, and the impact of drilling and well completion efficiencies. That would mark its third consecutive annual decline. Barclays also revised down this year's upstream spending forecast to a decline of 5pc, from an initial estimate of a 3pc drop. The change was driven by further US rig count losses after Opec+ started to ramp up supplies, as well as the hit from Trump's tariff wars. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canada’s oil sands to demonstrate durability in 2026

25/12/22

Canada’s oil sands to demonstrate durability in 2026

Calgary, 22 December (Argus) — Canadian oil sands heavyweights will show durability in 2026 with modest production gains in a lower oil price environment, while tempting investors with bigger, longer-term plans at a time of renewed interest in pipeline projects. Canadian Natural Resources (CNRL), Cenovus, Suncor and Imperial Oil plan to pump out a combined 3.9mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) in 2026, with 75pc of that focused on Alberta's oil sands region. Production gains among the Calgary-based firms will be 1-4pc, with CNRL and Cenovus leading the charge after sizeable acquisitions but also internal growth that has been years in the making. CNRL will push output to a record 1.6mn boe/d across 2026 after becoming sole owner in the 315,000 Albian oil sands mines in Alberta following an asset swap with Shell. The additional bitumen production also simplifies operations for the country's largest oil producer, which can now share trucks and personnel across its oil sands mines, which also includes its fully owned Horizon project. For its part, Horizon skipped a turnaround in 2025 to add 28,000 b/d of production, part of a growing theme of trimming downtime in the oil sands. Meanwhile, Cenovus seems poised to be the second Canadian operator to surpass 1mn boe/d with the upper end of its 2026 guidance just 15,000 boe/d shy of that mark. Boosted by two major acquisitions of cross-town rivals and sizeable organic growth, Cenovus will have doubled production since 2020 when output stood at 471,000 boe/d. It closed on its C$8.6bn ($6.1bn) purchase of MEG Energy in November to bring another 110,000 b/d into its fold, with plans to grow that to 150,000 b/d by 2028. Cenovus five years ago swallowed Husky Energy in a deal to increase its downstream and upstream exposure in Canada and abroad. And the company recently completed a three-year growth investment cycle and expects roughly 100,000 b/d of new production, also by 2028, at Sunrise, Lloydminster and West White Rose in Atlantic Canada combined. Capital spending for the four largest oil sands producers will climb to $14bn in 2026, up by 5pc from 2025, led by CNRL and Cenovus eyeing future growth. Endurance runners The production and spending plans come against a backdrop of global oversupply, highlighting oil sands operators' ability to not only weather, but grow, in a lower oil price environment with their suite of long-life, low-decline assets. Cenovus said its oil sands operating costs will be only $9/bl in 2026, while CNRL in another metric reports its corporate breakeven, including dividends, is just above $40/bl. In other words, oil sands producers would still have breathing space should WTI fall to the $51/bl predicted by the US Energy Information Administration in 2026 . But beyond 2026, an export pipeline capacity crunch is forecast to unfold from the third quarter of 2028 and that could put pressure on domestic prices, according to US bank TD Cowen. Trans Mountain and Enbridge plan for expansions to come on line in mid-to-late 2027, delaying the potential bottleneck by a year. Operators across the basin may be eyeing more growth but may not be ready to accelerate those plans until confidence grows on takeaway capacity. Acquisitions of producing assets may offer more assurance of that. "It's easier to grow by buying. If you grow organically, you pull that egress time forward," TD Cowen's managing director of institutional equity research, Menno Hulshof, said. CNRL has also outlined several projects it may pursue in the longer term, with front-end work due to start in 2026, potentially to unlock up to 260,000 b/d of new capacity between three oil sands projects. Significant output could come on line from 2030, and Alberta's recently proposed 1mn b/d pipeline to the Pacific will be key to an investment revival in the province. By Brett Holmes Oil sands capex guidance ($bn) 2026 2025 ±% 2026/25 CNRL 4.6 4.2 9 Cenovus 3.7 3.5 7 Suncor 4.1 4.2 -2 Imperial Oil 1.5 1.4 5 — company budgets Oil sands production guidance (boe/d) Oil sands Other Total ±% 2026/25 CNRL 867,500 752,500 1,620,000 3 Cenovus 767,500 197,500 965,000 4 Suncor 797,500 57,500 855,000 1 Imperial Oil 450,500 0 450,500 4 — company 2026 budgets Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US seizes another Venezuelan tanker

25/12/20

US seizes another Venezuelan tanker

Washington, 20 December (Argus) — The US Coast Guard on Saturday detained another Venezuelan tanker, making good on President Donald Trump's pledge to stop most shipments of Venezuelan crude. US homeland security secretary Kristi Noem, who oversees the Coast Guard, announced the seizure via a social media post, without releasing the name of the tanker. "The United States will continue to pursue the illicit movement of sanctioned oil that is used to fund narco terrorism in the region", Noem wrote. The US Coast Guard on 10 December seized a Venezuelan tanker with a cargo of crude destined for Cuba. Trump on 16 December declared a blockade of Venezuelan tankers previously placed on the US sanctions list and demanded that Venezuela "return to the US all of the oil, land and other assets that they previously stole from us". The tanker seized on 10 December was on the US sanctions list. Caracas has reacted by ordering Venezuelan naval vessels to escort tankers in the country's territorial waters. The US naval vessels have kept to international waters off Venezuela's coast. Little crude tanker traffic has moved out of Venezuela's main ports since the 10 December seizure of the Venezuelan tanker, with the exception of cargoes chartered by Chevron and a few other foreign oil majors working with state-owned oil firm PdV, industry and government sources say. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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