Biden pledges to cut US GHG emissions in half: Update 2

  • : Coal, Crude oil, Emissions, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 21/04/22

Updates with comments from Xi, US Chamber of Commerce

President Joe Biden is pledging the US will cut its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to half of 2005 levels by the end of the decade, as he seeks to spur new global actions to address climate change.

Biden today committed the US to reduce its emissions by 50-52pc from a 2005 base year by 2030, as he opened a two-day virtual climate summit attended by 40 world leaders.

"The signs are unmistakable," Biden said. "The science is undeniable. The cost of inaction keeps mounting. The United States is not waiting. We are resolving to take action."

That new commitment forms the basis of the US' new nationally determined contribution (NDC), or emissions pledge, under the Paris climate agreement, which it submitted to the UN today.

The president is hoping that by promising to make such cuts the US can persuade other nations to set their own, more aggressive targets under the agreement, framing the need for action as good economic policy.

"All of us, all of us, and particularly those of us who represent the world's largest economies, we have to step up," Biden said. "Those that do take action and make bold investments in their people, in clean energy future, will win the good jobs of tomorrow and make their economies more resilient and more competitive."

A number of world leaders have used the summit, and the days leading up to it, to announce their own new NDCs.

Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau today said his country would cut its emissions by 40-45pc from 2005 levels by 2030, replacing a previous 30pc reduction pledge. Japanese premier Yoshihide Suga announced a new target of reducing his country's GHG emissions by 46pc from 2013 levels, compared with 26pc previously.

UK prime minister Boris Johnson called the new US goal a "game changing" announcement but noted that raising global ambitions for emissions cuts and climate finance will be a "political challenge" that leaders must overcome.

"It is vital for all of us to show that this is not all about some expensive, politically correct green act of bunny hugging," he said.

Chinese president Xi Jinping said his government will take steps to reduce its production of coal starting in 2026, when its next five-year plan begins.

"We will strictly limit the increase in coal consumption over the 14th five-year plan period and phase it down in the 15th five-year plan period," he said.

Xi also said China would "strictly control" coal-fired power plant projects.

The White House said it developed the US target after consulting with relevant agencies and stakeholders to determine what level of emissions reductions are possible across the economy, accounting for factors such as technologies, future costs and the potential standards and incentives that could be used to reduce emissions.

An administration official said the target does not envision any specific sector-by-sector emissions cuts, but instead recognizes there are "multiple paths" to reducing US emissions.

A White House fact sheet accompanying the announcement highlights the president's proposal to eliminate GHG emissions from the electricity sector by 2035, as well as his support for setting more aggressive fuel economy and tailpipe CO2 standards for new cars and trucks, the top two sources of US emissions.

The transportation sector accounted for 29pc of US emissions in 2019, followed by electricity generation at 25pc, according to the latest US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) data.

The US under former president Barack Obama pledged to cut its GHG emissions by 26-28pc by 2025 from 2005 levels to help achieve the Paris agreement's goal of keeping global temperatures from rising by more than 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

The White House said the country is on track to meet Obama's pledge, with the new target keeping the US on pace to help limit the global increase in temperature to 1.5°C.

US emissions totaled just under 6.6bn metric tonnes in 2019, nearly 12pc below 2005 levels, with net emissions, accounting for carbon stored in forests and cropland, about 13pc lower than 2005. The administration's updated NDC estimates net emissions last year were 17pc below 2005. That would mean to reach the new 2030 goal, the US would have to cut its emissions by about 40pc from last year's total.

A 50pc cut would put the US pledge on par with the near-term commitments made by many of the major economics under the Paris agreement, according to a recent Rhodium Group analysis.

The US Chamber of Commerce called Biden's goal ambitious and said meeting it will require policies that put the country on a path to make "meaningful" emissions reductions.

"US businesses are leading the world in pursuit of climate change solutions, and we see great opportunities to develop and export technologies that will help address a truly global challenge," Chamber of Commerce senior vice president of policy Marty Durbin said.

While many environmental groups have already cheered the announcement, some are pushing back against Biden's new target, saying it falls short of what is needed to limit the rise in global temperatures.

"While many will applaud the president's commitment to cut US emissions by at least half by 2030, we have a responsibility to tell the truth: It is nowhere near enough," environmental group Sunrise Movement political director Evan Weber said.

The White House noted that the 50pc target is being supported by hundreds of businesses, along with many US state and local leaders and scientists.

Republicans in the US Congress are warning that Biden's efforts could hurt the country's economy.

"President Biden's decision to force America back into the Paris climate accord and increase our commitments could severely hamper our global competitive edge to the benefit of the Chinese Communist Party, the world's top carbon polluter," said US representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Washington state, the top Republican on the House Energy and Commerce Committee.


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24/04/29

US commends China's Middle East mediation

US commends China's Middle East mediation

Washington, 29 April (Argus) — The US hopes China will continue using its diplomatic influence in the Middle East after the two countries cooperated earlier this month to de-escalate tensions between Israel and Iran, US secretary of state Tony Blinken said today. "We did come very close to an escalation, a spread of the conflict," after Israel and Iran exchanged aerial attacks on each other's territory, Blinken said at a special meeting of the World Economic Forum in the Saudi Arabia capital Riyadh. The US saw that China used its influence in Iran to prevent an outbreak of a broader regional conflict "and that's a positive thing," Blinken said. Beijing stepped in last year to mediate an agreement between Tehran and Riyadh to normalize relations, playing a mediation role that the US could not carry out on its own. The US supported Chinese efforts to normalize Saudi-Iranian relations "because, if we can find through diplomacy ways to ease tensions and to avoid any conflict, that's a good thing," Blinken said. China has "a clear, obvious interest in stability in the Middle East," he said. "They obviously depend on the region for energy resources. There are many vital trading partners here." China provides a critical economic lifeline to Iran by absorbing nearly all of Iranian crude exports, "which is another challenge," Blinken said. But the US sees China as acting in its self-interest to help bolster stability in the Middle East. Finding some common ground on Iran was a rare positive spot during Blinken's visit to China last week. Blinken pushed his Chinese counterparts to put an end to private Chinese companies' supplies for Russia's military industry, while President Xi Jinping accused the US of undermining China's economic growth. "China and the US should be partners rather than rivals," Xi told Blinken during their meeting in Beijing on 26 April. The two countries should find common ground "rather than engage in vicious competition," Xi said. The US contends that Chinese companies supply 70pc of the machine tools and 90pc of the microelectronics for the Russian military industry, allowing Moscow to significantly increase weapons output in the past year. It remains to be seen whether the US threat of sanctions against Chinese companies accused of helping Russia's military industry will work, Blinken said. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Pemex fuel output surges, imports down in March


24/04/29
24/04/29

Pemex fuel output surges, imports down in March

Mexico City, 29 April (Argus) — Mexico's state-owned Pemex increased its gasoline and diesel output by 32pc in March from a year earlier, cutting its road fuels imports by 25pc year over year. Pemex's gasoline and diesel output at its six domestic refineries amounted to 562,300 b/d in March, up from 427,100 b/d in the same month of 2023, according to the company's monthly data published on 26 April. Gasoline production rose by 27pc to 350,400 b/d in March year over year. Gasoline output increased by 13pc from February. Pemex's gasoline imports fell by 16pc in March from a year prior, driven by increased domestic production. On a monthly basis, gasoline imports fell by 18pc from February. The company's diesel output surged by 40pc to 211,900 b/d in March year over year, driving imports down by 43pc to 112,500 b/d (see table) . Diesel production was 26pc higher in March compared with February. Road fuels output increased as Pemex's refining system processed 23pc more crude — 1.06mn b/d — in March from the prior year, as result of billion-dollar investments since 2019 to rehabilitate Pemex's refineries and a decline in crude exports . Pemex's regular 87-octane gasoline domestic sales remain almost steady at 527,400 b/d in March from a year earlier. In contrast, 92-octane premium gasoline sales rose by 11pc to 132,800 b/d year over year, as demand for premium gasoline in Mexico has increased this year. The company's diesel sales ticked up by 1pc in March from a year earlier and were 3pc above February sales. Pemex's domestic sales of refined products accounted for 75.6pc of the company's total revenue in the first quarter, Pemex said during its earnings call on 26 April. This compares to a 70.8pc share in full-year 2023, the company said. By Antonio Gozain Pemex fuel production, imports and sales '000 b/d Product Mar 24 Feb 24 Mar 23 YOY ±% Monthly ±% Production Gasoline 350 310 275.5 27.2 12.9 Diesel 212 168 152 39.8 26.0 LPG 110.0 104.0 100.3 9.7 5.8 Jet fuel 38 38 46 -17.1 1.6 Imports Gasoline 307 376 366.0 -16.1 -18.4 Diesel 112 119 196 -42.5 -5.1 LPG 69 100 101 -31.8 -31.1 Internal sales Regular gasoline 527 520 527 0.1 1.5 Premium gasoline 133 134 120 10.9 -0.7 Diesel 261.0 254.0 258 1.2 2.8 ULSD 30.0 28 32 -4.8 8.3 Jet fuel 95 97 94 1.0 -2.3 LPG 167 194 164 2.0 -13.8 Jet fuel and premium gasoline imports and ULSD imports and production are not broken out Pemex Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Norway's marine bio mandate ineffective: Marine market


24/04/29
24/04/29

Norway's marine bio mandate ineffective: Marine market

London, 29 April (Argus) — Norway's 6pc advanced biodiesel mandate for marine, which came into effect in October, has done little to incentivise the uptake of physical marine biodiesel blends at Norwegian ports, market participants told Argus . As of October 2023, bunker fuel suppliers in Norway must ensure that a minimum of 6pc, on a volume per volume basis, of the total amount of liquid fuels sold per year consists of advanced biofuel in the form of fatty acid methyl ester (Fame) or hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO). The mandate is only applicable to bunker fuels sold in the domestic market, impacting vessels operating between Norwegian ports as well as local tugboats, offshore supply barges, and fishing vessels. Market participants confirmed that the mandate operates on a mass-balance system at the moment, such that the mandate could also be met by supplying the equivalent amount of biofuels into the inland road sector. Consequently, participants said that very few buyers end up purchasing the physical marine biofuel blends, and instead marine fuel suppliers have had to utilise the mass-balance system to meet their mandated targets. This has resulted in a premium added onto conventional bunker fuels in Norwegian ports of about $56-60/t on average. A market participant described the current system as "like a CO2 tax", with most marine fuel buyers paying the premium rather than purchasing a marine biodiesel blend directly. Participants told Argus that HVO is popular and frequently used in road transport because of its superior specifications compared with biodiesel and its generally low freezing point. Norway's HVO imports typically originate from the US — Kpler data shows that about 68.4pc of HVO flows into Norway have originated from there this year. This is mainly because Norway does not apply the same anti-dumping measures as EU nations, which typically put a substantial premium on US-origin biodiesel imports. Norwegian shipowners going internationally are exempt from being liable to the additional premium imposed by the mandate. But participants told Argus that they usually have to pay the premium and then claim it back from the Norwegian Environment Agency (NEA). The system may change very soon. Market participants told Argus that the NEA is considering some changes to the mandate requirement. A gradual move away from the mass balance system is being discussed, in favour of a physical product mandate that would require biofuel blends to be sold to bunker fuel buyers. Further, a switch from an annual reporting system to a monthly one could also be on the cards. NEA is also reportedly looking at mandating the availability of marine biodiesel at all Norwegian ports and biodiesel fuel reconciliation at the tank rather than terminal. By Hussein Al-Khalisy Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Yara first-quarter gas consumption higher on year


24/04/29
24/04/29

Yara first-quarter gas consumption higher on year

London, 29 April (Argus) — Europe's largest fertiliser producer Yara's European gas consumption in the first quarter was up by 26pc on the year, but remained far lower than in the second half of last year. Norway-based Yara's gas consumption across Europe in January-March totalled 29.2 trillion Btu, well above the 23.1 trillion Btu a year earlier, but drastically down from 37.5 trillion Btu in the fourth quarter last year, the company's latest quarterly report shows. Yara did not report its European ammonia production for the first quarter, but the company's global output totalled 1.74mn t, up from 1.38mn t a year earlier. Yara's first-quarter European gas consumption fell from the preceding three months, despite its average European gas costs falling to $11.70/mn Btu from $13/mn Btu. The firm's European gas costs have declined sharply since peaking at $34.50/mn Btu in the third-quarter 2022, when European wholesale prices hit all-time highs ( see price graph ). Yara's quarterly spending on European gas supplies fell to $343mn in January-March, the lowest since at least summer 2021 when the company began reporting this data, and around one third the $1.08bn peak in April-June 2022. Yara's European gas consumption also fell despite a 37pc annual increase in total fertiliser deliveries in Europe . Lower curtailments, improved production economics and "volume catch-up" had supported output, Yara said. But while European deliveries improved on the year, they remained "below normal" — particularly for nitrates — and Yara sourced a larger share of its European deliveries from its global plants, the company's chief financial officer Thor Giaever said. Yara had hinted earlier this year its ammonia assets might run at 90pc or more of capacity as the company expected to boost production this year . But one explanation for the lower gas demand compared to the previous quarter is Yara may be maximising production at more efficient plants like Sluiskil in the Netherlands and Brunsbuttel in Germany, while ramping down less efficient plants, allowing the company to maintain or increase production while consuming less gas. Yara last year curtailed 19pc of its European ammonia capacity , turning towards greater imports of ammonia to replace the lower production. And that remains key to Yara's business plans , which the company said last week focused on "further strengthening operational resilience and flexibility". Argus assessed European ammonia production prices based on the TTF front-month price at roughly a $100/t discount to northwest European import prices in its last weekly assessment on 25 April, suggesting a still-significant financial incentive to produce ammonia domestically. The European fertiliser market remains under pressure by large volumes from Russia, meaning Europe has swapped an energy dependency on Russia for a food dependency, chief executive Svein Tore Holsether said, echoing previous statements . Comparing global assets Yara consumed 54.4 trillion Btu of gas globally in January-March, down from a multi-year high of 61.9 trillion Btu in October-December ( see consumption graph ). European consumption accounted for roughly 54pc of Yara's global gas demand in January-March, well down from 61pc in the previous quarter. And Yara spent $485mn on gas worldwide in January-March, 71pc for European supply, a lower proportion than at any other point since 2021. Yara's global average gas cost was $8.90/mn Btu in January-March, 24pc below its reported European cost. That discount has been a significant driver for Yara and others to increase production abroad rather than in Europe over the past two years. Yara forecasts its European gas costs at $9.70/mn Btu and $10.50/mn Btu in the second and third quarters of this year, respectively, holding well above its global average gas costs of $7.70/mn Btu and $8.40/mn Btu during those same periods. Globally, the firm aims to produce 8.6mn t of ammonia in 2025, significantly up from 7.8mn t in 2023, it said. By Brendan A'Hearn Yara European vs global gas costs $/MMBtu Yara European vs global gas consumption million MMBtu Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Service firms talk up long-term gas prospects


24/04/29
24/04/29

Service firms talk up long-term gas prospects

New York, 29 April (Argus) — Leading oil field service firms are bullish on the outlook for natural gas demand in coming years even though the fuel remains stuck in the doldrums for now, with US prices near pandemic lows amid oversupply after a mild winter. "This is the age of gas," Baker Hughes chief executive Lorenzo Simonelli says, adding that global demand for the power plant and heating fuel is due to climb by almost 20pc through 2040. "Gas is abundant, lower emission, low cost, and the speed to scale is unrivalled," he says. Halliburton also sees natural gas as the "next big leg of growth" in North America, driven by demand for LNG expansion projects, although its current plans do not envisage any comeback this year. Given a shrinking fracking fleet and lack of new equipment being built, the stage is set for an "incredibly tight market" in future, chief executive Jeff Miller says. A recovery in natural gas activity in the US may not happen until the end of this year or even 2025, Liberty Energy chief executive Chris Wright says. "Customers need to see that prices have firmed, that export volume demand actually is pulling upward at a meaningful rate," he says. On recent first-quarter earnings calls, service firms were upbeat about international growth prospects in the face of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The backdrop remains one of growing demand for oil and gas and an "even deeper focus" on energy security, according to Olivier Le Peuch, chief executive of SLB, the world's biggest oil field service company. SLB, formerly known as Schlumberger, expects overseas growth momentum to make up for a slowdown in North America this year. "The relevance of oil and gas in the energy mix continues to support further investments in capacity expansion, particularly in the Middle East and in long-cycle projects across global offshore markets," Le Peuch says. But results in North America will be depressed by the combination of low gas prices, capital discipline and producer consolidation. International rescue Halliburton expects international revenue growth in the "low double-digits" for the full year, with some margin expansion given the tight market for equipment and labour. Steady activity levels are seen in North America after land completion activity bottomed out in the fourth quarter of 2023 and rebounded in the first quarter. "The world requires more energy, not less, and I'm more convinced than ever that oil and gas will fill a critical role in the global energy mix for decades to come," Miller says. The positive outlook is reinforced by customers' multi-year activity plans across markets and assets. Baker Hughes forecasts "high single-digit growth" when it comes to the outlook for international drilling and completion spending this year. But customer spending in North America is expected to fall in a "low to mid-single-digit range" when compared with 2023. "We continue to anticipate declining activity in the US gas basins, partially offsetting modest improvement in oil activity during the second half of the year," Simonelli says. Beyond 2024, upstream spending is seen growing further across international markets, albeit at a "more moderate" pace than seen in recent years, according to Baker Hughes. SLB paced a decline among oil service stocks at the end of January when state-controlled Saudi Aramco scrapped plans to increase crude output capacity to 13mn b/d from 12mn b/d. But Saudi Arabia has stepped up its plans to boost gas output, by 60pc by 2030. This new energy mix was not anticipated six months ago, but it will "not have a natural impact on our ambition for growth" in Saudi Arabia, Le Peuch says. And Saudi gas plans will require substantial investment in gas infrastructure, which is a "long-term net positive" for Baker Hughes, Simonelli says. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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