US Gulf refiners balance high margins, RVO

: Oil products
21/05/06

Refining margins in the US Gulf coast are approaching — and sustaining — highs hot seen since 2017's Hurricane Harvey, but the high cost of compliance with the renewable fuel standard (RFS) program continues to pull the reins on refinery throughputs.

Gulf coast refining margins, as measured against WTI Houston crude based on a 3-2-1 yield, rose to $18.90/bl this week, the second highest level since September 2017, when Hurricane Harvey hit Texas and briefly lifted product prices to multi-year highs. Gulf coast margins have maintained above $18/bl for the past five session. Outside of Harvey, refining has not been this profitable since 2015.

Crude inputs at Gulf coast refineries rose to 8.54mn b/d during the week ended 30 April, the highest level since late March 2020, according to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Refinery throughput has steadily risen since February's winter storm, but rates remain below pre-Covid-19 levels. This is in large part because of the hike in renewable volume obligation prices (RVO), a credit aggregate that represents a cost to refiners for producing gasoline and diesel in compliance with the federal RFS mandates.

Argus-assessed RVO reached 19.61¢/USG, or $8.24/bl, on 5 May, a record high. Uncertainty over the volume of overdue and future blending requirements and pending court cases, including at the US Supreme Court, have sent the RVO to record levels. These levels are likely to persist at least through June, if not longer.

Refining margins with RVO subtracted averaged $10.72/bl over the past month, still relatively high in post-Covid-19 terms, but lower compared with the $12.79/bl average in April 2019.

In addition to high RVO, a string of secondary unit maintenance could also have limited crude unit runs. April was a particularly heavy month for fluid catalytic cracker (FCC) outages at Gulf coast refineries. This exacerbated an existing imbalance between crude and secondary unit runs that has led to an excess of intermediate feedstocks. Most of these FCC outages have restarted as of early May.

Strong summer could tighten supply slack

A strong surge in summer gasoline demand could give refiners the boost they need to bring operations back to pre-Covid-19 levels.

Prices already rose this spring as markets transitioned from winter to summer grades, and the return of the seasonal lift after last year's demand distortion could last into the fall.

Many in the industry are expecting a strong summer driving season as continued US vaccinations are expected to reach a majority of adults and even teenagers in the US by late summer.

Recovering travel demand is also expected to boost jet fuel margins, partially alleviating one of the biggest obstacles to refiners bringing crude throughputs higher since last May.

Gulf coast jet fuel margins averaged $7.05/bl in April, down from $13.08/bl in April 2019.

By Chunzi Xu

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

24/10/10

Cop 29 president calls for progress on finance

Edinburgh, 10 October (Argus) — The president-designate of the upcoming UN Cop 29 climate summit, Mukhtar Babayev, has urged parties to progress on a timeframe and an amount for the new climate finance goal to be decided at the conference in Baku next month. At a pre-Cop meeting today, Babayev stressed the need to "take seriously the responsibility for identifying a number over a timeframe and come forward with solutions". "We cannot afford to leave too much to be decided at the summit," he added. Cop parties must agree in November on the new collective quantified goal (NCQG) — building on the current $100bn/yr target that developed countries agreed to deliver to developing countries over 2020-25. But there remains a huge divide to bridge between developed and developing nations ahead of Cop 29 . Developed countries have yet to commit to a number for climate finance, while developing nations have for some time called for a floor of at least $1 trillion/yr. The Cop 29 presidency is seeking to build on "possible convergence on certain elements" to provide a solid foundation to discussions on other parts of the goal, Babayev said. Elements for the formulation of the goal include an amount for the NCGQ, timeframes, scope, sources, as well as accessibility and transparency. Babayev did not provide details on potential convergence, but some common ground was found during technical discussions on elements such as access and transparency. "Qualitative elements of the goal such as transparency and accessibility are also essential to ensuring that the goal is both fair and ambitious," he said. "The substantive framework for the draft negotiation text" on the NCGQ will be released in the next few days, according to Babayev. The NCQG is Cop 29's "top negotiating priority", Babayev said, but he also urged parties to turn pledges made last year for the loss and damage fund — which will support vulnerable countries with the irreversible and unavoidable effects of climate change — into contributions. He said that countries need to "respond to the goal of the UAE consensus [Cop 28 agreement] to transition away from fossil fuels in a just and orderly manner taking into account different national circumstances". There is "no time for us to allow for anyone to try and backpedal on what we have collectively committed to in Dubai," Cop 28 president Sultan al-Jaber said at the meeting today. Cop 28 last year ended with an agreement that included transitioning away from fossil fuels and tripling renewable energy capacity globally by 2030. Al-Jaber said that the next NDCs must be aligned with the Paris agreement and the Cop 28 deal to keep 1.5°C — the Paris accord's most ambitious temperature limit — within reach. NDCs "must be economy-wide, cover all greenhouse gases and seize the opportunity of climate action as a driver for sustainable growth", he said. He recognised the efforts of G7 countries in including references to the Cop 28 agreement in their final communique and that he "was very hopeful that the same would happen at G20" later this year. G7 countries in May committed to phasing out "unabated coal power generation" by 2035 — putting a timeframe on a coal phase-out for the first time. They also pledged "to transition away from fossil fuels" in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating actions in this critical decade, to achieve net-zero by 2050 in keeping with the best available science", which is the language used in the Cop 28 text. Heads of states and governments in September adopted a pact that also included this wording ahead of the UN general assembly . By Caroline Varin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Hurricane Milton closes in on Florida: Update

24/10/09

Hurricane Milton closes in on Florida: Update

New York, 9 October (Argus) — Strong winds and heavy rainfall are lashing Florida's west coast ahead of Hurricane Milton, which is forecast to make landfall late tonight as a major hurricane. The growing risk of life-threatening storm surge and flooding have sparked mass evacuations given Milton's potential to be one of the most destructive hurricanes on record to strike the region. Multiple tornado warnings have also been issued across the Florida peninsula. Milton was located about 100 miles southwest of Tampa at 4pm ET today, packing maximum sustained winds of 125mph, according to the National Hurricane Center. It was moving to the northeast at 17 mph. "On the forecast track, the center of Milton will make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida tonight, cross the Florida peninsula overnight and early Thursday, and move off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean on Thursday," the center said. Milton is expected to remain at hurricane strength as it sweeps over the Florida peninsula, before gradually weakening as it moves back out to sea. Fuel supplies, prices tighten Mandatory evacuations for hundreds of thousands of west coast Florida residents led to a fuel shortages in some areas ahead of the storm. The state waived four statutes regulating fuel sales, storage and distribution to shore up supplies and has been escorting fuel trucks to retail stations that have run dry. Prices for Florida CBOB delivered at Tampa and Port Everglades fell by 0.75¢/USG to $2.08/USG today, down from their highest point since mid-August on Monday at $2.18/USG. Cash differentials were stable in the gasoline cargo markets at Argus Gulf coast Colonial CBOB +10¢/USG. Florida ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD) delivered to Port Everglades fell by 2.23¢/USG to $2.30/USG today. Cash differentials were unchanged in the waterborne ULSD cargo markets at Argus Gulf coast Colonial ULSD +12.25¢/USG. Milton's storm surge and destructive winds in the Tampa area have the potential to significantly damage a key import hub from which refined products are sent by pipeline to the Orlando area and distributed by truck throughout the state. If terminals at the port are quick to reopen, blocked roads and flooding could prohibit fuel truck deliveries to gas stations that may not even have power. The offshore oil and natural gas hub in the Gulf of Mexico was largely spared as Milton's track took it well south of most platforms. By Stephen Cunningham, Stephanie Crawford, Cooper Sukaly and Nathan Risser Hurricane Milton projected path Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Florida waives fuel rules ahead of hurricane

24/10/09

Florida waives fuel rules ahead of hurricane

Houston, 9 October (Argus) — Florida has waived four statutes regulating the sale, storage and distribution of liquid fuels in an effort to shore up supply as the state prepares for landfall from Hurricane Milton. Florida agriculture commissioner Wilton Simpson signed an emergency order Monday that allows fuel sellers to sell a range of branded and unbranded fuels interchangeably and to blend fuels from multiple suppliers. The rules suspension will extend through 6 December or until rescinded by the commissioner. The measure will "assist with efforts to ensure adequate distribution and supply of fuel", governor Ron DeSantis (R) said Wednesday. The state has been escorting fuel trucks to retail stations that have run dry as drivers fill vehicles ahead of the hurricane, which is expected to make landfall late Wednesday or Thursday morning on the west-central coast of Florida. Because Florida has no refineries, the state must import all its gasoline, diesel and jet fuel by truck and ship, making its fuel supply particularly vulnerable to disruption when when ports and roadways are closed by a storm. An hours-of-service waiver for truck drivers directly assisting with emergency relief efforts in Florida and other Gulf coast and Atlantic coast states has be in place since Hurricane Helene made landfall in Florida late last month. By Nathan Risser Hurricane Milton projected path Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Russia to present climate strategy at Cop 29

24/10/09

Russia to present climate strategy at Cop 29

Edinburgh, 9 October (Argus) — Russia is preparing to present its climate strategy at the UN Cop 29 climate conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November, deputy prime minister Alexander Novak said. Novak convened a meeting with Russian ministries on climate issues on 7 October, in which a forecast for Russia's emissions rates, in line with the country's 'low emissions economic development strategy to 2050', was discussed. The strategy was approved in 2021. It is unclear whether the strategy is linked to Russia's new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) — a climate plan to be submitted to the UN. Cop parties are expected to publish their next NDCs to the Paris climate agreement — this time for 2035 — in November-February, as part of a cycle that requires countries to "ratchet up" their commitments every five years. Russia's president Vladimir Putin announced Russia's 2060 net zero ambitions in October 2021, but the country has not updated its NDC since 2020. The Cop 28 agreement signed in the UAE last year included an energy section calling for "transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems", a tripling of renewable capacity by 2030 and for "accelerating action in this critical decade", giving the direction countries need to take in the energy transition. The country's main focus is on doubling the absorptive capacity of Russia's forests and producing and exporting more gas, to replace demand for more carbon-intensive oil and coal. Russia has no plans to reduce coal and oil output. Russia's climate envoy Ruslan Edelgeriyev said in November 2022 that Moscow could achieve net zero a decade earlier than in 2060 if its access to international debt markets and technology was not blocked because of the sanctions imposed over Ukraine. While reiterating net zero ambitions last year despite the sanctions, Putin repeatedly called accelerated decarbonisation irresponsible, claiming that it contributed to Europe's energy crisis in 2021. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

African petroleum body seeks EU CO2 tax moratorium

24/10/09

African petroleum body seeks EU CO2 tax moratorium

Cape Town, 9 October (Argus) — African states must push for a moratorium on the EU's impending carbon tax when they attend the UN Cop 29 climate talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, next month, said the African Petroleum Producers Organisation (APPO). APPO's secretary-general Omar Farouk Ibrahim made the call at Africa Oil Week currently underway in Cape Town, South AFrica. "As we prepare to go to Baku for Cop 29, I invite those who represent the interests of our continent in the negotiations to sound the alarm on the implications for Africa of the planned implementation of the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism," Ibrahim said. The mess called climate change was not created by Africans, APPO's secretary-general said. Today's industrialised countries are responsible for most of the greenhouse (GHG) emissions of the past 120 years, he said. This is the time to sound the alarm and ask for a moratorium on CBAM so that Africa can benefit, he added. "That is what an energy transition is in our opinion. If we don't, we're in for trouble [as] it will stifle our industrial and economic development," according to Ibrahim. Africa deserves better — it cannot develop without fossil fuels, he concluded. By Elaine Mills Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more