Geada e seca elevam quebra de safra para 15pc
Os efeitos da geada que atingiu a safra de cana-de-açúcar no Centro-Sul vão se somar aos da pior seca em décadas e podem resultar em uma quebra de safra de 15pc, segundo Denis Arroyo, diretor executivo da Organização de Associações de Produtores de Cana do Brasil (Orplana). Em entrevista à Argus, Arroyo falou sobre como isso afeta o planejamento das usinas e o receio dos produtores de que parte dos efeitos se estenda também para a próxima safra. A seguir, os principais trechos da entrevista.
Já é possível medir o tamanho do impacto na safra de cana-de-açúcar da geada de dois dias que atingiu o Centro-Sul na virada de junho para julho?
É preciso esperar sempre de 10 a 15 dias para ver o efeito que a geada pode ter trazido. As canas que são mais novas são as que preocupam, porque pode haver a morte da planta. O que podemos dizer agora é que a geada piorou uma situação que já era ruim, por conta da seca. Foi uma geada média em intensidade, mas muito abrangente: atingiu do Paraná até Goiás. O Centro-Oeste recebeu um impacto maior do que São Paulo.
O planejamento de safra de uma companhia agrícola é feito em cima da previsão da maturação da cana e do seu plantio. Quando há uma geada, você tem de colher a cana afetada, porque ela pode apodrecer. Isso bagunça todo o planejamento. Aquilo vira emergência e é preciso colher uma cana que talvez nem esteja no ponto ideal de maturação. Você passa a colher cana com menos ATR [Açúcar Total Recuperável, que representa a qualidade da cana] do que tinha expectativa.
O sr. mencionou que o que mais preocupa são as canas mais jovens. Já é possível dizer o que foi afetado?
Sim, mas difere muito por região. Em São Paulo, foi bem generalizado. No Centro-Oeste, bastante cana jovem foi afetada, o que pode significar que ela vai ser cortada para ser brotada de novo. Com isso, perde-se os dois ou três meses que ela já tinha de desenvolvimento. Começa-se a pensar que, no ano que vem, a safra mais uma vez não começará cedo.
Isso significa que esta geada também afetou a próxima safra?
Significa que começa a dar sinais de preocupação um pouco com a safra seguinte. Mas precisamos de mais tempo para saber com certeza.
Há quanto tempo a safra de cana não é afetada por uma geada dessas?
Desde 2017. Mas uma seca como esta, em mais de 90 anos de acompanhamento, nunca vimos algo assim. Por isso que falei que a geada trouxe uma piora. Havia previsão de uma quebra de 10pc a 12pc, que agora vai a 15pc por causa da geada. Outra coisa a ficar atento é o fim de safra, que deve terminar mais cedo. Em algumas regiões já há uma preocupação se a safra não vai acabar na primeira metade de outubro.
Olhe a pressão do lado da usina: boa parte do açúcar já está comercializada; do lado governamental, há a preocupação em não faltar etanol e causar mudança na mistura, que é tudo o que não queremos; e você tem, nas que cogeram, uma necessidade de biomassa, porque o preço da energia vai explodir; e há contratos vigentes de energia elétrica que precisam ser cumpridos.
Quando a indústria de etanol deve começar a sentir os feitos da geada e qual deve ser a consequência para o preço do etanol?
A geada diminui a pureza da cana, o que afeta mais o açúcar. Parte da quebra da safra já está precificada, como expectativa, no etanol. A geada tende a impactar ainda mais, mas sabemos que a cotação do etanol depende muito do que vem do petróleo. Não sei se há espaço para esse repasse, pois o etanol está batendo no seus limites de teto. Se subir mais, derruba o consumo, o que reajustaria o preço. Pela pressão de matéria-prima, deveria subir, mas a concorrência com a gasolina ajuda a limitar. Não é que eu ache que vá baixar, mas que vá continuar no nível em que está.
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US southbound barge demand falls off earlier than usual
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Norwegian Cruise swings to 1Q profit
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