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Japan to fully lift Covid-19 state of emergency

  • : Coal, Crude oil, LPG, Metals, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 21/09/28

Japan plans to end an extended Covid-19 state of emergency in all areas on 30 September, in response to a steady fall in the number of infections. This will boost the country's economic activity and spur a recovery in fuel demand.

The end of the state of emergency and a continuing vaccination roll-out will further lift Japan's fuel demand, especially in the transportation sector. The country's domestic jet fuel consumption increased by 1.4pc to 62,000 b/d in July from a year earlier and down by 34.5pc from July 2019 prior to the pandemic, according to trade and industry ministry data.

Premier Yoshishige Suga will announce a formal decision to lift Covid-19 curbs in all regions later today, as strict measures under the state of emergency in 19 prefectures and quasi-emergency measures in eight prefectures, which will expire on 30 September, have significantly contained new cases. It will be the first time no part of Japan has been under any Covid-19 controls since 4 April.

The state of emergency measures had banned alcohol services at restaurants and bars and imposed curbs on opening hours, with people requested to stay home unless there is an emergency and work home as much as possible. Measures had also limited the number of spectators to 5,000 at any major event.

The government is planning to ease restriction in stages within a month. The governors of each prefecture will decide on what anti-infection measures to leave or lift, depending on the area's Covid-19 situation.

Covid-19 infections in Japan have gradually fallen since 27 August when Tokyo expanded and extended a state of emergency measures. New daily cases totalled 1,128 on 27 September compared with a record high of 25,851 on 20 August. The government continues to accelerate efforts to increase vaccination rates, with 52.24pc of the country's population having completed a second immunisation by 27 September.

By Motoko Hasegawa

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25/12/19

Trinidad not part of US blockade of Venezuela: PM

Trinidad not part of US blockade of Venezuela: PM

Kingston, 19 December (Argus) — Trinidad and Tobago is not involved in the US blockade of oil tankers entering and leaving from neighboring Venezuela, prime minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar said on Thursday. She rejected a Venezuelan government claim that her country is part of US president Donald Trump's current campaign against Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro, and that it is supporting "the theft of Venezuelan oil." "We have no intention of engaging in any war with Venezuela," Persad-Bissessar said. But Trinidad's foreign ministry said on 15 December that the US is using the country's two airports for "logistical activities," including resupply for US operations and personnel rotations. Venezuelan vice-president Delcy Rodriguez accused Persad-Bissessar of being "hostile" to Venezuela, saying she "has turned her country into a US aircraft carrier to attack Venezuela, in an unequivocal act of vassalage." The US has stationed a large naval force in the waters near Venezuela since September and has destroyed several small boats in the area it said were carrying drugs, killing more than 80 people. Trump said in November he would order land strikes against Venezuela soon, and the US seized a tanker carrying Venezuelan crude earlier this month. Trinidad's rejection of the Venezuelan claims follow a standoff between the hydrocarbon producers over agreements to develop an offshore natural gas field in Venezuelan waters close to their maritime border that has an estimated 4.3 Tcf in reserves. Trinidad described a Venezuelan decision to terminate all natural gas supply contracts with it as "propaganda". The southwestern tip of gas-short Trinidad is 11 miles from Venezuela's north coast, and the country has been seeking gas from Venezuelan offshore fields to support up declining domestic output. By Canute James Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Chile to audit SQM-Codelco lithium deal

25/12/19
25/12/19

Chile to audit SQM-Codelco lithium deal

Sao Paulo, 19 December (Argus) — Chile's comptroller general office (CGR) will audit "certain operations associated with" the SQM-Codelco agreement to form a lithium production joint venture, following complaints by some of the country's parliamentarians and indigenous communities, further delaying the deal. CGR on 18 December said its scope is limited to verifying whether government actions follow the law and to audit public spending. The agency said that it is forbidden from judging whether a policy or administrative decision is a good idea or convenient. CGR does not have the power to veto the deal, because the main legal challenges to the agreement are either in court, where the watchdog has been ordered not to comment, have already been resolved by judges, or involve policy judgments that Chilean law does not allow CGR to review. As a result, its role is limited to reviewing the agreement for potential irregularities. It can flag legal inconsistencies and delay the deal's effective date until any identified issues are rectified. CGR's audit will focus on the state-owned company Codelco's financial advisory contract with investment bank Morgan Stanley, as well as Codelco's operations, to determine whether public resources are being used appropriately. The audit will also examine claims from a congressional investigative commission regarding the transparency of the negotiation process, SQM's tax situation, and a clause that relates to Codelco's obligation to sell 100pc of extracted potassium to SQM under the partnership. The Atacama desert's brines, from which the joint venture will produce lithium, contain potassium that is precipitated and extracted alongside lithium. Additionally, CGR will review whether the companies' directors acted lawfully and examine Chile's economic development agency Corfo's approval of the contracts that underpin the partnership. These include Corfo's contracts with SQM, which allow lithium extraction in the Atacama salt flats through December 31, 2030, and its contracts with Codelco's lithium subsidiary Minera Tarar, which enables operations at the site from 2031 to 2060. Corfo's mining lease and project contracts are a key legal step in allowing Codelco to partner with a private company — SQM, in this case — to mine lithium in that area under the national lithium strategy of President Gabriel Boric, who leaves office in March. Although the SQM-Codelco agreement , which was struck in May 2024 and would extend SQM's authorization to continue extracting lithium in the Atacama salt flats from January 2031 to 31 December 2060, does not have a hard deadline to close, it is still running against the clock. If the deal is not sealed by 31 December 2025, a contract clause in the partnership agreement allows any party to void the deal if they so choose. If this deadline is not met, Chile would also reduce SQM's lithium extraction quota by 300,000 metric tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent for the remaining period until 31 December 2030, when the company's current mining permit ends. The joint-venture also faces opposition from Chile's newly elected president Jose Antonio Kast . The far-right politician said he would honor the deal if it is sealed before he takes office, but risk of an overturn would grow if that condition is not met before he is sworn in on 11 March 2026. By Pedro Consoli Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico central bank cuts target rate to 7pc

25/12/19
25/12/19

Mexico central bank cuts target rate to 7pc

Mexico City, 19 December (Argus) — Mexico's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7pc, its lowest level since June 2022, maintaining a slower pace in the easing cycle on inflation concerns. The decision marked the eighth rate cut this year and the fourth quarter-point reduction following four consecutive half-point cuts. This year's cuts follow five quarter-point cuts in 2024 from a cyclical peak of 11.25pc in March. The board approved the cut in a 4-1 vote, with deputy governor Jonathan Heath dissenting in favor of holding the rate at 7.25pc. Heath has been the lone dissenter in the past five decisions, consistently urging greater caution. The central bank said the decision reflected "the behavior of the exchange rate, the weakness of economic activity and the possible impact of changes in global trade policies," repeating language used in its last four statements. Gabriela Siller, chief economist at Banco Base, pointed to a "significant change" in the bank's forward guidance, noting a shift toward a less dovish tone. The board said it "will consider when to make further adjustments" to the policy rate, replacing the "will consider cutting" language used in November. Mexican bank Banorte also said the central bank struck a less dovish tone, pointing to a change in its forward guidance. Annual inflation rose to 3.8pc in November from 3.57pc in October, according to statistics agency Inegi. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, accelerated to 4.43pc from 4.28pc. The central bank now sees headline inflation ending 2025 at 3.7pc, up from 3.5pc in its November forecast, while core inflation is projected at 4.3pc, revised from 4.1pc. It also raised its headline and core forecasts for the first two quarters of 2026, while maintaining that both will converge to its 3pc target by the third quarter. The bank said the revisions mainly reflect a "more gradual-than-expected" easing in services inflation, along with a smaller contribution from accelerating consumer goods prices. The board also addressed recent tax reforms, which it expects will have a temporary and not necessarily proportional impact on prices, adding it will update its forecasts as it conducts a comprehensive assessment of the revised tax code's effects. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Al industry faces structural Europe decline

25/12/19
25/12/19

Viewpoint: Al industry faces structural Europe decline

London, 19 December (Argus) — The European aluminium industry has heard some highly optimistic forecasts for prices and demand recovery in 2026 at a series of late-year industry events that started with London Metal Exchange (LME) Week in October. But that optimism rests on assumptions of a sharp recovery in demand for which there is no real evidence, and concerns are growing that the extended downturn in European manufacturing represents a more structural shift in global industrial power. Some industry analysts forecast in October that LME aluminium prices could reach $3,000/t by the end of 2025, and even threaten the $4,000/t mark at some point in 2026. The forecasts assumed a continuation of the supply tightness that has become a major driver of global aluminium markets in 2025 as Chinese output has neared its production cap of 45mn t/yr and production growth has also slowed elsewhere, as many regions focus away from capacity expansion. But the bullish price projection was also supported by expectations of a recovery in demand from manufacturing industries following a lengthy period of contraction, particularly in Europe. With demand levels for aluminium-intensive goods currently well below trend, those analysts foresee a much better demand outlook for next year. But the reality may be that the downturn in aluminium demand in Europe is more structural, and as a result there is no reason to expect a significant improvement just because it is due in an historical context. The automotive sector is a particularly potent example. After a steep fall in manufacturing rates in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic, Europe's automotive sector has yet to recover to 2019 levels. Production even fell back in 2024 by more than 6pc from the previous year on strong competition from China and lower consumer spending because of high inflation and rising interest rates. European car production fell further in the first half of 2025, by 2.6pc on the year as stricter emissions targets, high energy costs and US import tariffs hit output. Even relief in the form of falling interest rates or more affordable energy would not be enough to bring European car manufacturing back to 2019 levels. As European output has fallen, other countries have risen to take its place. Global car production grew by 3.5pc in the first half of this year, with Chinese output jumping by 12pc on the back of climbing electric vehicle (EV) sales, thanks to policy support and, crucially, rising exports. As Europe once led the world in internal combustion engine markets, so China is now leading in EVs. "The European industry sold ICE [internal combustion engine] cars all over the world, including to China, but that era is now over," executive director of clean transport think tank Transport & Environment William Todts said at the European Aluminium Summit in Brussels last month. "Fifty percent of the Chinese market has gone, and the European market is shrinking. That transformation is extremely challenging." Europe must recognise this new world order and adjust its policy goals accordingly. Much of Europe's trade and industry policy was designed for the dominant global industries the region enjoyed in the past, and new policies must be enacted to support new markets or the downturn in European manufacturing will extend further and deeper. "I'm very worried about the downturn being structural. Europe has huge energy costs and I don't see carmakers growing against the Chinese competition," chief executive of aluminium products manufacturer HAI Group Rob van Gils said in Brussels. "I don't think it's a cycle and it will be very tough in the next couple of years," he added. "We need an evergreen approach. Europe is just surviving. It is not innovating. Industry is stuck." By Jethro Wookey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Bitumen markets eye pockets of demand

25/12/19
25/12/19

Viewpoint: Bitumen markets eye pockets of demand

London, 19 December (Argus) — Paving activity may strengthen in some European and north African markets in 2026, but several others are expected to see continued declines in bitumen demand. Germany could lead any recovery, market participants said, as a new government plans to expand and maintain the road network. The country — once Europe's bitumen powerhouse — had a weak 2025, but paving work is expected to lift consumption from mid-2026. German bitumen demand has fallen by more than 20pc since 2021, while France and the UK are down by over 25pc in the same period. Budget constraints and high inflation drove these declines. Sweden, Norway and Denmark — already demand drivers in 2025 — could strengthen further in 2026. Road budgets are set to rise as governments prioritise infrastructure and the value of well-maintained highways, possibly linked to higher defence spending as Nato strengthens in Europe. North Africa has also drawn European Mediterranean surplus cargoes , and market participants expect demand from the region to increase next year, led by Algeria, Morocco and some Libyan consumption. Elsewhere, there is little cause for optimism. In France, most participants expect 2026 demand to be weaker than in 2025. With the government beset by regular upheaval and parlous public finances, road spending seems an unlikely priority. Several other northwest and central European countries will also see steady to lower bitumen consumption in 2026. Meanwhile, prospects for a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia remain slim, so a large upswing in Ukrainian import demand looks unlikely next year. Export opportunities outside Europe also appear limited, as Asia-Pacific and the Middle East remain well supplied and demand there stays slow. South Africa, now reliant on imports, is more likely to source from the Mideast Gulf or Pakistan than from the Mediterranean. The prospects of shipping product to the US could improve in the coming months, with Mediterranean bitumen values currently firm relative to crude and fuel oil. But large volumes seem unlikely. Some Mediterranean cargoes moved to the US last year, but the trend was short-lived. In the bitumen freight market, several new larger tankers will enter service in 2026, increasing vessel availability in what will still be a weak market. This could weigh on freight rates but help offset higher costs from the EU ETS scheme, which comes fully into effect in 2026 after its 2024 implementation. Bitumen prices fell in 2025 and are expected to stay under pressure through winter, before seasonal gains from March 2026. Markets should see greater strength relative to fuel oil in summer as bitumen demand typically rebounds then. Demand for bitumen was generally weaker across most European countries in 2025 than in 2024, weighing on prices. Budgets came under pressure and political challenges contributed to a lack of focus on infrastructure and road maintenance spending. Bitumen prices hit historic lows in 2025, partly offsetting inflation-driven increases in building, equipment and material costs. By Jonathan Weston Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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