Biofuels demand set to grow despite high costs: IEA
Global biofuels demand is set to expand by 28pc to 186bn l between 2021 and 2026, with fuel demand recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic expected to account for a fifth of this, the IEA said today in its Renewables 2021 outlook.
But demand must nearly double again to align with the IEA's net zero scenario, the organisation said. In the IEA's accelerated case, biofuels demand growth could more than double between 2021 and 2026, although this is dependent on policies that tackle cost, sustainability — including the availability of sustainable raw materials — and technical limitations.
Demand will rise despite increasing biofuels prices — although the latter will slow growth, the IEA said. The Paris-based energy watchdog saw demand in 2021 recovering from the lows of 2020. And it has assumed in its forecast that high feedstock prices, seen across the board in 2021, are temporary.
All Argus European biofuel and feedstock prices, as well as tickets — the cost of compliance in some European countries — have hit record highs this year, with some reaching repeated records over prolonged periods. The prompt outright Argus fatty acid methyl ester (Fame) 0 fob ARA range benchmark has averaged $1,507.58/t in 2021 to date, up by 83pc on the year and by 86pc on the same period in 2019.
Ethanol and renewable diesel, also known as hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), will drive the growth, according to the IEA. In volumetric terms, ethanol demand will grow ahead of HVO. Demand for HVO is concentrated in the US and Europe, owing to policy in those regions, the IEA said.
European demand weak on declining liquid fuels
The IEA projects growth of 13pc over 2021-26 in Europe, partly on falling demand for liquid fuels, as EU proposals and legislation make the case for electric vehicles.
The European Commission's Fit for 55 package proposes that all new cars and vans are zero-emissions from 2035, signalling the phasing out of the internal combustion engine.
Demand growth is primarily for HVO and ethanol, although there is scope for increased biodiesel production if it replaces imports, the IEA said. The watchdog sees the increasing targets set out for biofuels creating competition for compliant feedstocks. The potential for biofuels in the maritime sector was noted, but biofuels accounted for just 0.1pc of the fuel used globally in the shipping sector in 2019, according to the IEA.
Strengthening Asian production
Asia's biofuels production will surpass that of Europe's before 2026, owing to growing liquid fuel demand and export-driven output, the IEA said. Asian countries account for 27pc of new demand and 29pc of new supply in the IEA's forecast period, mostly down to Indonesian and Malaysian blending targets, as well as India's ethanol policies.
India is set to become the third-largest market globally for ethanol demand by 2026, after the US and Brazil, the IEA said. The country plans to reach 20pc ethanol blending by 2025.
The IEA also cites a key growth driver in the shape of Indonesia's planned B40 blending mandate, although Indonesia said today that this is likely to be delayed to 2025.
In the US, HVO and SAF make up 78pc of the IEA's projected growth for US biofuels demand. Domestic output of both meet most of this new demand in the IEA's forecast, and it also notes that there is little evidence of supply project cancellations, despite high raw material costs.
And in Brazil, although the IEA forecasts an increase in biofuels demand of 27pc to 2026, almost half of this is down to ethanol demand returning to 2019 levels. Brazil this week confirmed that its biodiesel blend mandate for 2022 would be set at 10pc — much lower than the 14pc rate previously set out in the country's timetable.
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Biomethanol market slows, but shipowners eye offtakes
Biomethanol market slows, but shipowners eye offtakes
London, 16 May (Argus) — The UK's biomethanol consumption fell by 37pc last year as competition from alternative renewable fuel compliance options weighed on demand. The UK consumed 40mn litres of biomethanol in 2023, down from 63mn l in 2022, 53mn l in 2021 and 48mn l in 2020, according to provisional data from the country's Department for Transport. Biomethanol is used as a blending component for gasoline in the UK. Market participants attribute the decline in demand to ample supply of competitively priced alternatives to meet the UK's mandate for the use of renewable fuels in the transport sector. Fob ARA range biodiesel prices fell to a 19-month low towards the end of 2023 , following an unusually large influx of supply to Europe from China since the start of the year. EU biodiesel imports from China reached a record 1.06mn t in 2023 , up from 557,000t in 2022, according to GTT data. The increase in imports contributed to lower renewable fuel ticket prices in key European markets, including the UK. Companies supplying biofuels for transport in the UK can generate renewable transport fuel certificates (RTFCs), which are tradeable and can help obligated parties meet the UK's renewables' mandate. The Argus UK non-crop RTFC reduction obligation price averaged 21.79 pence/RTFC in 2023, compared with 36.35p in 2022. The price has averaged 16.79p so far this year, compared with 26.40p and 37.39p in the same period in 2023 and 2022, respectively. The drop in demand for biomethanol from the UK transport sector is weighing on domestic prices. The Argus cif UK biomethanol price has averaged $1,081.43/t so far in May, having been on a consistent downward trend since late October when the price peaked at $1,205/t. The price averaged $1,212.75/t in May 2023. The slowdown in demand has put biomethanol production margins under pressure, prompting some producers to cut output. Silver lining Demand for renewable methanol, in the form of both biomethanol and e-methanol, could be supported by growing interest from the maritime sector in the coming years as shipowners seek to reduce their emssions. The EU's FuelEU maritime regulation is due to come into effect at the start of next year. It aims to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of marine fuels by 2pc in 2025 and by 80pc by 2050. Shipping companies can choose from a wide range of alternative marine fuels to reduce their emissions, but several are betting on methanol and renewable methanol. Danish shipping giant Maersk has ordered 24 methanol-powered container ships for delivery and commissioning during 2024-25, and Japanese classification society ClassNK said in a recent report that it expects a total of 77 methanol-ready ships to be ordered by 2026, up from 27 methanol newbuilds expected to be ordered this year. Offtake agreements for renewable methanol are also on the rise. Maersk has signed several letters of intent for the procurement of biometanol and e-methanol from producers such as Equinor , Proman and OCI Global . The company also said it has secured an agreement with Danish shipping and logistics company Goldwind for the offtake of 500,000 t/yr from 2024. Meanwhile, Singaporean container shipping group X-Press Feeders said last year that it will offtake biomethanol from OCI's Texas plant starting this year. Another spanner in the works? Although the outlook on renewable methanol demand from the shipping sector appears bright, the recognition of biomethane and biomethane-based fuels produced through mass balancing in non-EU grids is uncertain. More than 40 energy companies and institutes have sent joint letters to the European Commission asking for these products to be included in the Union Database , which aims to prevent the relabelling of biofuels' sustainability declaration. The UDB was launched in January 2024 for liquid fuels and will include gaseous fuels in November, but the commission plans to exclude automatic certification of biomethane and biomethane-based fuels if it is transported through gas grids outside of the EU. The measure "is likely to reduce the availability and increase the cost of low- and zero-carbon bunker fuels for shipping" and may also impact hydrogen and hydrogen-derived fuels, one of the letters sent to the commission said. By Evelina Lungu Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Nayara Energy to set up two ethanol plants in India
Nayara Energy to set up two ethanol plants in India
Mumbai, 16 May (Argus) — Indian private-sector refiner Nayara Energy plans to invest 6bn rupees ($71.9mn) to set up two Indian ethanol plants, each with a production capacity of 200 kilolitre (kl)/d. Nayara has already identified and purchased land in south India's Naidupeta town, Andhra Pradesh state and central India's Balaghat city, Madhya Pradesh state for the proposed plants. The plants will be commissioned by 2026 and will use broken rice and maize as feedstock. The company aims to gradually increase the number of plants to five, with a combined ethanol production capacity of around 1,000 kl/d. "The establishment of ethanol facilities will significantly enhance Nayara Energy's ethanol supply reliability, playing a crucial role in meeting the Indian government's 20pc blending target by the end of fiscal year 2025-2026," Nayara Energy's chief executive officer Alessandro des Dorides said. India achieved 12pc ethanol blending with petrol during November 2023-March 2024, according to the oil ministry. Nayara Energy is also considering a significant expansion of its 400,000 b/d Vadinar refinery, and proposed doubling primary capacity to 800,000 b/d. The Vadinar expansion project would essentially mean building a new refinery at the existing site, Indian oil ministry secretary Pankaj Jain said in February, according to Russian state-owned news agency Tass. Russian state-controlled Rosneft has a 49pc shareholding in Nayara. By Roshni Devi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Australia to explore biofuels mandate, incentives
Australia to explore biofuels mandate, incentives
Sydney, 15 May (Argus) — Australia's federal budget is funding mandate studies and pursuing certification schemes, given the increasing likelihood biofuels will play a significant role in the nation's energy transition. The federal government has pledged A$18.5mn ($12.3mn) in the four years from 2024-25 to develop a certification scheme for low-carbon liquid fuels, including SAF and renewable diesel, by expanding its guarantee of origin programme for long-term demand by the industry . An extra A$1.5mn over two years from 2024-25 will go to analysis of the regulatory impact of the costs and benefits of introducing mandates for low-carbon liquid fuels, while the government has promised consultation on possible production incentives for domestic project developers. Money from the A$1.7bn Future Made in Australia innovation fund will also be made available for liquid fuels research, to be administered by the Australian Renewable Energy Agency to commercialise net zero technology. "The package of announcements is dealing with crucial areas essential for deployment, including certification to ensure Australia develops a sustainable liquid fuels industry, resourcing to support key demand side interventions such as a low carbon fuels standard and consultation on additional supply-side measures such as production credits," Bioenergy Australia chief executive Shahana McKenzie said on 15 May. The funding pales in comparison to the $9bn hydrogen investment promised by the government, although much of that is deferred to the decade from the 2027-28 fiscal year. About 45pc of Australia's energy use is supplied by liquid fuels but the nations lags behind many countries on decarbonising its transport sector. Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation forecasts demand for jet fuel will grow 75pc by 2050. But no domestic production facility has yet reached a financial close, despite major airlines committing to increasing their SAF use. Domestic feedstocks including agricultural residues could meet 60pc of Australian jet fuel demand initially, growing to 90pc by 2050, Bioenergy Australia has said, while pursuing renewable fuels could cut the country's dependence on oil product imports from 90pc to 61pc by 2040. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Falling D4 RIN values alter RD strategy
Falling D4 RIN values alter RD strategy
Houston, 14 May (Argus) — Soaring US renewable diesel production is cutting renewable fuel credit prices and pressuring biofuel production margins, potentially curbing industry growth. Renewable diesel (RD) production in North America last year jumped by 36pc to a record 3.45bn USG, and output this year is expected to climb by another 28pc to 4.43bn USG, according to Argus estimates. Rising production has cut the value of biomass-based diesel D4 credits, or renewable identification numbers (RINs), by 75pc over the past year, as credit generation from renewable diesel production has outpaced the the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) biofuel blending targets. D4 RINs credits reflect compliance costs of biofuel that has been blended with diesel, used by fuel suppliers in accordance with the EPA's annual Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandates. They also act as an incentive for renewable fuel production, as producers can sell RINs once their biofuels are blended with conventional road fuels. Lower prices on D4 RINs generate less revenue for the biofuels industry and also reduce compliance costs for obligated parties. Some refiners have shifted their strategic focus to compensate for lower RIN values, with some cutting back on renewable fuels production. Vertex Energy plans to idle renewable diesel production at its Mobile, Alabama, facility as the company anticipates generating wider margins by returning a converted hydrocracker back to fossil fuel production. Vertex remains open to restarting its renewable diesel production if market conditions improve. CVR Energy is considering changing feedstocks to improve its renewable diesel margins, possibly substituting corn oil for soybean oil. Chevron has shared similar sentiments, saying feedstock flexibility can be a major advantage across its operations. The company recently closed two biodiesel facilities in the US midcontinent as attention shifts to more profitable renewable diesel in the long term. Valero is nearly finished converting its renewable diesel unit to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) at its Diamond Green Diesel joint venture facility in Port Arthur, Texas. The venture with Darling Ingredients is the largest producer of renewable diesel in North America and a major contributor to the increase in supply over the past two years. Valero views the D4 RIN market as in persistent oversupply due to the growth of renewable diesel, but the company remains optimistic due to other clean fuels incentives, including state-level low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) programs that provide incentives for reducing the carbon intensity of transportation fuels. "The long-term outlook of RD is still positive, because you look at the number of LCFS programs that are still being contemplated by legislation this year," Valero executive vice president Gary Simmons said. More renewable diesel capacity is expected to come online by the end of this year. Marathon Petroleum's Martinez, California, refinery is undergoing a full conversion from conventional petroleum refining to renewable fuels and is currently running at 50pc of capacity. Phillips 66 has taken a similar approach with the conversion of their Rodeo, California, plant, with 30,000 b/d of renewable diesel online. With EPA biofuel blending targets fixed through 2025, an aggregate decrease in renewable diesel production and subsequent lower generation of D4 RINs could counter the weakened RIN prices that are contributing to the industry's depressed production margins. By Matthew Cope Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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