Brasil eleva projeção de soja e milho 2021-22

: Agriculture, Fertilizers
21/12/09

O Brasil elevou novamente sua projeção para a safra 2021-22 de grãos e oleaginosas com um aumento da área plantada estimada.

A produção da safra 2021-22 agora deve atingir 291,1 milhões de t, um aumento de 0,4pc em relação à estimativa divulgada um mês antes, de acordo com o terceiro levantamento de safra da Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab). O volume é 15,1pc maior que a estimativa para a safra 2020-21. O recorde anterior era de 258 milhões de t, em 2019-20.

Para a safra 2021-22, a área plantada está estimada em 72 milhões de hectares (ha), alta de 4,3pc em relação à safra anterior.

Para a safra de soja, a área está estimada em 40,35 milhões de ha, um aumento de 3,7pc em relação à safra anterior. A Conab estima uma produção de 142,8 milhões de t, subindo 4pc em relação ao ano anterior. O volume também 1,4pc maior que a primeiras perspectiva para a temporada 2021-22, divulgada em outubro.

A Conab projeta uma produção de 117,2 milhões de t de milho, um aumento de 34,6pc em relação a 2020-21 e de 0,4pc em comparação à perspectiva anterior. A área estimada para o milho é de 20,9 milhões de ha, alta de 5,1pc em relação à safra anterior.

A produção de algodão em pluma está estimada em 2,6 milhões de t, 1,6pc abaixo da estimativa anterior, mas ainda uma alta de 10,7pc na comparação anual. Para o trigo, a produção está projetada em 7,8 milhões de t, alta de 1,6pc em relação à estimativa anterior e 25,3pc acima da temporada 2020-21.

A questão climática no Brasil, que comprometeu o desempenho das safras e preocupou os produtores na última temporada, agora é apontada como um dos fatores determinantes para as expectativas otimistas para 2021-22. Novembro registrou grandes volumes de chuvas, superando a média em vários lugares, principalmente nas regiões Sudeste, Centro-Oeste e Matopiba, de acordo com a Conab.

Oferta e demanda

O consumo doméstico de soja no Brasil para a temporada 2021-22 é estimado em 52,1 milhões de t, acima das 51,8 milhões de t da temporada anterior.

As exportações de soja devem chegar a 90,7 milhões de t, acima dos 85,8 milhões de t do ano anterior, enquanto as importações podem chegar a 500.000t.

O consumo doméstico de milho é estimado em 76,8 milhões de t, acima das 72,3 milhões de t do ano anterior. As exportações de milho estão previstas em 36,7 milhões de t, acima das 19,2 milhões de t previstas para esta temporada. As importações podem chegar a 900.000t, significativamente abaixo das 2,7 milhões de t importadas um ano antes.

Por João Petrini

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25/12/19

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Indian local urea sales on track for record in December

25/12/18

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CBAM documents outline preliminary ammonia values

25/12/17

CBAM documents outline preliminary ammonia values

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Brazil's 2025-26 soy planting at 94.1pc

25/12/16

Brazil's 2025-26 soy planting at 94.1pc

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Mosaic halts SSP production in Brazil

25/12/16

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