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WTI diff to CMA Nymex reaches record premium

  • : Crude oil
  • 22/03/09

With prompt prices rising more quickly than forward prices in Cushing, Oklahoma, the Argus West Texas Intermediate (WTI) assessment reached a record daily premium to the Calendar Month Average (CMA) Nymex yesterday.

The Argus WTI Differential to CMA Nymex daily price assessment represents the volume-weighted average of Domestic Sweet (DSW) transactions reported in the physical spot market. It reached a record high of $5.81/bl yesterday as backwardation — when spot prices are higher than future prices — deepened as the US officially banned Russian oil imports in an already tight market.

The Argus WTI differential to CMA Nymex assessment is now averaging about $4.70/bl for the April trade month to date. The highest final trade month average was $2.22/bl for April 2018.

Only about two years ago, the May 2020 trade month average reached a record low of $6.22/bl under the CMA Nymex, when the market was in deep contango — when futures prices are higher than spot prices — as supply surged and demand dropped suddenly because of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The Argus WTI differential to CMA Nymex trade month average is a commonly used adjustment factor in many US pipeline crude physical contracts. It is used to adjust for the level of backwardation or contango in the market when the crude contract's delivery month was the prompt US pipeline month. In many contracts it is added to the average of the daily prompt futures contract during the month of delivery, or to the CMA Nymex.

For April trade, this means that the final trade month average for the Argus Diff to CMA Nymex will be added to the average May and June Nymex prompt-month settlements during the calendar month of April to price many April-delivery crude volumes.

Like Nymex WTI, the quality expected for delivery in spot WTI trades done against the CMA Nymex is actually the common stream Domestic Sweet Blend (DSW). Argus assessment names for DSW crude prices at Cushing, Oklahoma, have retained the historical name of WTI.

Prompt-month crude prices in Cushing have surged since Russian began its invasion of Ukraine on 24 February. The crisis comes on the back of an already tight crude oil market as demand rises faster than supply.

In the Cushing benchmark hub, crude inventories have fallen weekly since the beginning of the year.

Commercial crude stocks fell to 22.8mn bl during the week ending 25 February, the lowest since September 2018, according to the US Energy Information Administration data released last week. Fresh data will be released by the EIA later this morning.

The EIA did revise its forecast for US crude production upward yesterday to an average 12mn b/d in 2022, from the prior forecast of 11.97mn b/d.


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