US economy unexpectedly contracted in 1Q
The US economy contracted at a 1.4pc annual rate in the first quarter, the first decline since the Covid-19 pandemic caused a short, deep recession in the second quarter of 2020.
The first quarter contraction reflected decreases in private inventory investment — or inventories companies keep to support production and distribution — particularly in the automotive sector, as well as reduced net exports, and lower federal, state and local government spending, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said. Those factors together subtracted 4.5 percentage points from growth.
But the first-quarter contraction is not necessarily a sign of a fundamental change in direction for the economy, as gross domestic product growth was 6.9pc just a quarter earlier. Rather it largely reflects a drop in net exports as imports surged on inventory rebuilding amid snagged supply chains. Exports of goods fell by 9.6pc while imports of goods surged by 21pc.
"Net trade has been hammered by a surge in imports, especially of consumer goods, as wholesalers and retailers have sought to rebuild inventory," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. That level of inventory-building imports cannot last much longer, he said.
"This is noise; not signal," he said. "The economy is not falling into recession."
Consumer spending, the largest part of the economy, grew at a healthy 2.7pc in the first quarter compared with 2.5pc in the fourth quarter.
Still, government support, including "forgivable loans to businesses, grants to state and local governments, and social benefits to households all decreased as provisions of several federal programs expired or tapered off," the BEA said. Federal government expenditures fell by 5.9pc.
Also crimping growth in the quarter, "an increase in Covid-19 cases related to the Omicron variant resulted in continued restrictions and disruptions in the operations of establishments in some parts of the country," the BEA said.
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APLNG's Jan-Mar output higher: Origin
APLNG's Jan-Mar output higher: Origin
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Taiwan's scrap imports fall in March as demand slows
Taiwan's scrap imports fall in March as demand slows
Singapore, 30 April (Argus) — Taiwan's ferrous scrap imports fell on a year-on-year basis in March, as a slight rise in spot prices in January combined with slow domestic steel demand to discourage purchases. Taiwanese steel demand has weakened since the beginning of the year, market participants said. "Market fundamentals in 2023 were still okay, but slowed down in January as scrap buyers were unsure about the market post-Chinese new year," a trader said. Marginally higher spot scrap prices in January also suppressed buying appetite. The spot price for HMS 1/2 80:20 containerised scrap from the US west coast was as high as $380t/t on 17 January and was assessed at $375/t cfr by the end of that month. The higher spot prices encouraged steel mills and scrap buyers to take a wait-and-see approach. Loadings and delivery of containerised scrap bookings are usually made 8-10 weeks after an agreement is signed. Import volumes for the second quarter of 2024 are expected at steady-to-lower levels on seasonal weakness, market participants said. Production is likely to fall in the upcoming summer season because of electricity restrictions set by local authorities. A rise in electricity rates in April will also cap any upside in imported scrap prices and volumes, as mills are likely to reduce output by 20-40pc to curb their electricity use. Taiwan ferrous scrap imports t Country Mar % ± vs Feb % ± vs Mar'23 Jan-Mar % ± y-o-y US 121,298 49.29% 12.2% 323,030 5.74% Japan 44,316 -20.17% -56.7% 161,710 -23.04% Australia 15,942 60.69% -58.8% 37,850 -45.67% Dominican Republic 14,920 -15.05% 0.4% 48,878 -0.81% Others 76,671 40.31% 29.1% 198,780 25.86% Total 273,148 24.79% -15.6% 770,249 -2.81% Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
US commends China's Middle East mediation
US commends China's Middle East mediation
Washington, 29 April (Argus) — The US hopes China will continue using its diplomatic influence in the Middle East after the two countries cooperated earlier this month to de-escalate tensions between Israel and Iran, US secretary of state Tony Blinken said today. "We did come very close to an escalation, a spread of the conflict," after Israel and Iran exchanged aerial attacks on each other's territory, Blinken said at a special meeting of the World Economic Forum in the Saudi Arabia capital Riyadh. The US saw that China used its influence in Iran to prevent an outbreak of a broader regional conflict "and that's a positive thing," Blinken said. Beijing stepped in last year to mediate an agreement between Tehran and Riyadh to normalize relations, playing a mediation role that the US could not carry out on its own. The US supported Chinese efforts to normalize Saudi-Iranian relations "because, if we can find through diplomacy ways to ease tensions and to avoid any conflict, that's a good thing," Blinken said. China has "a clear, obvious interest in stability in the Middle East," he said. "They obviously depend on the region for energy resources. There are many vital trading partners here." China provides a critical economic lifeline to Iran by absorbing nearly all of Iranian crude exports, "which is another challenge," Blinken said. But the US sees China as acting in its self-interest to help bolster stability in the Middle East. Finding some common ground on Iran was a rare positive spot during Blinken's visit to China last week. Blinken pushed his Chinese counterparts to put an end to private Chinese companies' supplies for Russia's military industry, while President Xi Jinping accused the US of undermining China's economic growth. "China and the US should be partners rather than rivals," Xi told Blinken during their meeting in Beijing on 26 April. The two countries should find common ground "rather than engage in vicious competition," Xi said. The US contends that Chinese companies supply 70pc of the machine tools and 90pc of the microelectronics for the Russian military industry, allowing Moscow to significantly increase weapons output in the past year. It remains to be seen whether the US threat of sanctions against Chinese companies accused of helping Russia's military industry will work, Blinken said. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
Pemex fuel output surges, imports down in March
Pemex fuel output surges, imports down in March
Mexico City, 29 April (Argus) — Mexico's state-owned Pemex increased its gasoline and diesel output by 32pc in March from a year earlier, cutting its road fuels imports by 25pc year over year. Pemex's gasoline and diesel output at its six domestic refineries amounted to 562,300 b/d in March, up from 427,100 b/d in the same month of 2023, according to the company's monthly data published on 26 April. Gasoline production rose by 27pc to 350,400 b/d in March year over year. Gasoline output increased by 13pc from February. Pemex's gasoline imports fell by 16pc in March from a year prior, driven by increased domestic production. On a monthly basis, gasoline imports fell by 18pc from February. The company's diesel output surged by 40pc to 211,900 b/d in March year over year, driving imports down by 43pc to 112,500 b/d (see table) . Diesel production was 26pc higher in March compared with February. Road fuels output increased as Pemex's refining system processed 23pc more crude — 1.06mn b/d — in March from the prior year, as result of billion-dollar investments since 2019 to rehabilitate Pemex's refineries and a decline in crude exports . Pemex's regular 87-octane gasoline domestic sales remain almost steady at 527,400 b/d in March from a year earlier. In contrast, 92-octane premium gasoline sales rose by 11pc to 132,800 b/d year over year, as demand for premium gasoline in Mexico has increased this year. The company's diesel sales ticked up by 1pc in March from a year earlier and were 3pc above February sales. Pemex's domestic sales of refined products accounted for 75.6pc of the company's total revenue in the first quarter, Pemex said during its earnings call on 26 April. This compares to a 70.8pc share in full-year 2023, the company said. By Antonio Gozain Pemex fuel production, imports and sales '000 b/d Product Mar 24 Feb 24 Mar 23 YOY ±% Monthly ±% Production Gasoline 350 310 275.5 27.2 12.9 Diesel 212 168 152 39.8 26.0 LPG 110.0 104.0 100.3 9.7 5.8 Jet fuel 38 38 46 -17.1 1.6 Imports Gasoline 307 376 366.0 -16.1 -18.4 Diesel 112 119 196 -42.5 -5.1 LPG 69 100 101 -31.8 -31.1 Internal sales Regular gasoline 527 520 527 0.1 1.5 Premium gasoline 133 134 120 10.9 -0.7 Diesel 261.0 254.0 258 1.2 2.8 ULSD 30.0 28 32 -4.8 8.3 Jet fuel 95 97 94 1.0 -2.3 LPG 167 194 164 2.0 -13.8 Jet fuel and premium gasoline imports and ULSD imports and production are not broken out Pemex Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.
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