Biofuels share in German fuel mix down in June

: Biofuels
22/08/30

The share of biodiesel and ethanol in Germany's road fuel mix dropped in June, according to the latest data from Germany's export control authority Bafa.

Sales of biodiesel and hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) fell to 195,000t in June, down by around 5pc on the month and by 9pc on the year. German diesel consumption rose by 13pc from May but fell by 6pc from June 2021 to 2.9mn t, leaving the share of biodiesel and HVO in the diesel pool at around 6.7pc in June, the lowest since December 2021.

It is likely that an increase in HVO prices in June discouraged obligated parties to increase physical blending. Meanwhile, the price of German greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction certificates remained largely unchanged on the month, prompting participants to purchase tradeable GHG credits instead.

The Class II HVO fob ARA range price averaged $3,496/t in June, up from $3,210t in May, while German other GHG credits for 2022 compliance — certificates that do not fall under the crop or waste cap in Germany — averaged €473/t CO2e in May and June.

Ethanol sales dropped by around 3pc on the month and on the year to 90,900t in June, while gasoline consumption increased by 22pc compared with May to 1.6mn t. This meant that ethanol's share of the German gasoline pool slid to 5.7pc, down from 7.2pc in May and 6.9pc a year earlier. The share of E10 in the German gasoline pool hit 24.6pc in June, a new record high, with E10 sales jumping by 29pc to 387,600t.

The Argus T2 ethanol price climbed to a $359/t premium over Argus Eurobob oxy grade gasoline in June, from $280/t in May. A rising premium typically discourages the use of ethanol.

By Sophie Barthel

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25/12/22

Viewpoint: Brazil ethanol imports may double in Dec-Mar

Sao Paulo, 22 December (Argus) — Brazil ethanol imports may accelerate in the next three months, reflecting favorable arbitrage for foreign product and a need to boost supply during a period of high prices and tight domestic inventories. Market participants estimate ethanol imports of 230mn-250mn liters (l) (12,000-13,100 b/d) in the four months through March 2026, the off-season for sugarcane in Brazil's top producing central-south region. That would mark the largest volume imported for the four-month period since the 2020-21 crop, when it totaled 274.7mn l, according to data from Brazilian trade ministry Mdic. Ethanol imports totaled almost 243.4mn l between April and November 2025, according to official data. Argentina and Paraguay are expected to be the main suppliers of the product in the coming months. Under the Mercosur agreement, imports from these countries are exempt from an 18pc import levy, which are applied on volumes from the US. The shipments would meet part of domestic demand, which is coming up against smaller inventory levels than in years past. On 30 November, available stocks of hydrous ethanol totaled 4.9bn l, according to data from the agriculture and livestock ministry Mapa. This is 26pc less than in the same period in 2024. Anhydrous ethanol stocks totaled 3.5bn l, 15pc lower than the previous year. Lower stocks are partly due to a sugarcane crop whose development and quality were negatively affected by drought and fires in 2024. The result was lower sugarcane crushing and ethanol production in 2025-26 than in the previous crop. The central-south region produced 29.5bn l of ethanol between the start of the crop in April and 1 December, 5pc lower than the same period in 2024, according to the latest data from the sugarcane and bioenergy industry association Unica. The current cycle had already begun with lower carryover stocks , thanks to strong ethanol consumption through 2024-25. Supply concerns grew with this year's 1 August increase in the percentage of anhydrous blended with gasoline at the retail stage, which grew to 30pc (E30) from 27pc (E27). Throughout the second half of 2025, producers signaled their reluctance to exercise flexibility clauses in anhydrous contracts — which usually allow for an increase of up to 30pc in the volume purchased during the crop-year. Additionally, weather conditions remain a source of concern heading into the new year. A rainy March and April next year could delay the start of the 2026-27 harvest, making supply even tighter. A calming supply mix adjustment A successful shift in the output mix towards ethanol this quarter —and towards anhydrous in particular in the last few weeks — have helped ease supply concerns. The current crop started with expectations that recent investments in crystallization capacity would lift the share of feedstock directed to sugar production to 52pc. But by mid-year sugar was proving less profitable than ethanol , making producers review their strategy and maximize alcohol production . The central-south mix stood at 64.48pc ethanol and 35.52pc sugar in the second half of November, according to Unica. This compares with 55.36pc ethanol and 44.64pc sugar in the same period in 2024. Anhydrous production was also boosted following the E30 announcement. Some corn ethanol mills shifted 100pc of their production to anhydrous ethanol. In the central-south, anhydrous ethanol production totaled 457mn l in the second half of November, up by 10pc from a year earlier, according to Unica. This relief caused the market to adjust its import estimates to more conservative figures. The outlook of approximately 500mn l of ethanol imports in 2025-26, considering the volume realized plus the estimate of 230mn-250mn l, is closer to the lower end of July's forecasts, when participants penciled in imports of 400mn-800mn l in the cycle . By Maria Lígia Barros Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Biogas growth uneven, shipping drives 2026

25/12/22

Viewpoint: Biogas growth uneven, shipping drives 2026

London, 22 December (Argus) — Europe's biomethane market faces uneven growth in 2026, with numerous unsolved policy hurdles and as adoption of the EU's revised renewable energy directive (RED III) reshapes national compliance frameworks. Shipping demand will remain a key driver, particularly for certified subsidised product. RED III's overall 2030 target gives EU member states the option to reduce greenhouse gases (GHGs) by 14.5pc, or reach a 29pc renewable energy share. RED II only required countries to reach a 14pc renewable energy share. Some states have already transposed RED III, including the Netherlands and Germany , and pivoted incentive schemes to reward fuels on a GHG reduction basis. This is setting up biomethane with low or negative carbon intensity (CI) as a fuel of choice for suppliers obligated to comply with the regulation in the Netherlands, where previously it lagged behind cheaper, energy-intense biofuels. Another EU regulation that favours biomethane use is FuelEU Maritime, which came into effect in January 2025 requiring shipowners to reduce fleet emissions by 2 pc/yr in 2025 and 2026. Over-compliance can be sold under pooling schemes — which have proven profitable for bio-LNG bunkering. The mandate became a major market price driver for renewable gas guarantees of origin (RGGOs) — certificates issued to companies producing gas made from non-fossil fuel sources — and this should continue into 2026. New schemes, either under RED III or domestic obligations, that will come into effect in 2026 will compete with maritime demand for supply. Most 2026 Dutch and Danish supply has already been sold to the maritime sector. Growing Netherlands As well as a pivot to GHG-based compliance with a new ERE ticket system under RED III, the Netherlands began work on a Green Gas Blending Obligation in November. While implementation before late 2027 seems unlikely, progress should boost RGGO forward pricing. Dutch biomethane liquidity could be bolstered if the government approves mass-balancing , a method to track and verify biomethane when it is injected into the gas grid system and becomes indistinguishable from conventional gas. A motion was proposed in parliament in November, but a recent government response indicates this is unlikely. Bio-LNG must be unsubsidised, certified and physically delivered to qualify for ERE tickets, otherwise it will be treated with a fossil gas CI of 94g CO2e/MJ when calculating a fuel supplier's overall mandate level. Steady Germany, France Germany will remove double-counting for waste-based biofuels under its GHG reduction quota (THG) in 2026, but biomethane should remain the cheapest compliance route for fuel suppliers, as rising mandates will support demand. Most German imports come from the UK or Denmark. The former may benefit from Danish prices inflated by maritime demand, despite questions about UK eligibility with German schemes. France's biogas production certificate (CPB) blending mandate starts in January, which should significantly boost domestic demand. But the country has delayed its RED III transposition , which includes a new GHG-based IRICC ticket system, to 2027. The current energy-based TIRUERT transport ticket system will remain in place for a year, limiting transport-sector uptake. It is unclear if IRICCs can be generated from biomethane in 2027, but 3pc renewable gas obligations for transport will start in 2028, increasing thereafter. Cross-border trade and bio-LNG bunkering should remain limited. French biomethane can only be exported as an ex-domain cancellation , the cancellation of RGGOs in one country's registry for use in a different country. This carries risk to buyers, as ownership is not necessarily transferred. Subsidised biomethane cannot be liquefied at French LNG terminals for use outside the country. French bio-LNG must be exported via mass-balancing to other terminals in the EU, for use under FuelEU Maritime. Uncertain UK The UK's access to EU markets hinges on access to the Union Database for gaseous Biofuels (UDB), now targeted for launch by end-summer 2026. Uncertainty about third-country treatment could restrict EU trade — a critical issue given the UK exported more than half its RGGOs in the first three quarters of 2025, mostly to Germany, Norway and Switzerland. The UK is consulting on replacing volume-based RTFC tickets with a GHG-based system, but any changes would not be enacted until 2027. Overall in Europe, biomethane remains well positioned in GHG-based systems, but policy implementation delays will probably slow overall market growth. The Netherlands, Denmark and Germany should remain anchors for European pricing, and Spain should consolidate its role as a maritime hub. But several countries risk lagging behind without RGGO registries, export hub access, policy incentives and subsidy reform. By Madeleine Jenkins Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: EU ethanol supported by mandates in 2026

25/12/18

Viewpoint: EU ethanol supported by mandates in 2026

London, 18 December (Argus) — Ethanol prices in Europe look to be well supported in 2026, and demand for higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions saving product is expected to grow. This comes as the EU's updated Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) is rolled out in more member states, and supply looks to be shortening in a market that has historically been well balanced. The Netherlands will transition to a greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions-saving mandate under its transposition of RED III in January. This means an end to double counting of ethanol produced from advanced feedstocks toward national mandates. Germany, another major European market, is also set to remove double counting for advanced biofuels. This being the case, demand will rise for crop-based ethanol, a staple of gasoline blending in Europe, especially for material with higher GHG savings. This has coalesced in increased interest in the Argus -assessed average 75pc GHG savings crop-based ethanol in recent weeks, with a first spot trade made on the Argus Open Markets (AOM) trade initiation platform on 16 December. Trading on these standards is the projected approach of obligated parties in some key markets as they seek to fulfil their new, higher GHG emissions savings mandates in the most economical way possible. In the year to 1 December, Argus has assessed even higher GHG savings — minimum 90pc — crop-based ethanol at an average discount of just under €180/m³ to RED Netherlands waste-based ethanol. Since the launch of the Argus ' RED Germany waste-based ethanol assessment in June, again to 1 December, the discount for high GHG savings crop-based ethanol has averaged just over €176/m³. These spreads may narrow as the projected market dynamics unfold. Supply crunch A supply gap has opened in Europe since the signing of the UK-US trade agreement in May. EU imports of UK undenatured ethanol have since collapsed, down by around 56pc on the year in May-September according to Eurostat data. The deal saw the UK remove all import tariffs on up to 1.4bn l/yr of US ethanol, which led directly to UK producer Vivergo shutting its 416mn l/yr Saltend plant in August . The EU's imports of US undenatured ethanol are also down on the year, by nearly 13pc in May-September, based on Eurostat data, as US ethanol flows are diverted to the UK . In the Netherlands, imports have been made permanently more expensive by the government ruling in October that only undenatured ethanol would be eligible for compliance under the national annual renewable energy obligation in transport. This amendment to its EU RED III transposition package means that essentially all imports of fuel grade ethanol for use in the country will be subject to the maximum import tariff of €192/m³, and not the €102/m³ tariff for denatured ethanol. These developments supported ethanol prices near two-year highs in October, and whether they stay elevated depends on imports arriving from other suppliers like the US or Brazil. EU imports of undenatured ethanol from the UK and the US between May and September were down by 44pc, or 72,300t, on the same period in 2024. Stock levels in Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) ports were low for much of the third and fourth quarters of 2025. The US' production capacity of 52.4mn t/yr means it remains a likely candidate to fill the EU's supply gap, but this depends on demand in the UK and the prices buyers are willing to pay there. Alternatively, Brazil may be able to fill the void with production capacity of more than 78.1mn t/yr. The Mercosur-EU trade deal is likely to be signed soon and the terms would effectively open the arbitrage window permanently for ethanol producers in Brazil to send material to Europe. But implementation of the agreement could take several years. By Toby Shay Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Dutch ticket move to help low-emission fuels

25/12/17

Viewpoint: Dutch ticket move to help low-emission fuels

London, 17 December (Argus) — A change in the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED III) is pushing the Netherlands, a key renewable fuel ticket market in Europe, to pivot from compliance based on energy share to greenhouse gas (GHG) savings, and should benefit fuels with higher emission savings. The Netherlands will switch to GHG-based ERE tickets on 1 January 2026. The mandate will apply retroactively if the legislation is passed beyond that date. The move more closely aligns Dutch compliance with Germany's THG quota and accelerates a broader shift to reward fuels with high greenhouse gas (GHG) savings, as well as RED Annex IX Part A feedstock status, positioning advanced Fame, hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) and biomethane as front-runners. RED III's overall 2030 target gives EU member states the option to reduce their GHGs by 14.5pc, or to have a 29pc renewable energy share in their overall fuel mix. This is a significant step-up from RED II, which only required states to have 14pc renewable energy in their mix by 2030. Most major states incentivise the uptake of RED targets through the use of renewable fuel ticket systems. Tickets are used by companies supplying liquid or gaseous fossil fuels in the country and are obligated to pay excise duty or energy tax on fuels. They can be traded to meet obligations and are primarily generated via the blending of renewable fuels into fossil fuels, with additional sources of tickets including electricity used to charge e-vehicles. The Dutch change will benefit fuels with higher emissions savings and move away from a more simplistic approach where one HBE ticket is equal to 1 GJ of energy use, with multipliers available based on feedstock type. The current four HBE categories will expand to 16 types of ERE tickets , defined by transport sector — land, inland waterways and maritime — as well as feedstock. An HBE-to-ERE ratio of 1:46, as per the Dutch Emissions Authority's (NEa) guidance, has already begun to guide transitional pricing. All 2025 HBEs must be submitted by 30 April, after which any non-redeemed HBEs will be converted into EREs, subject to a legal cap on the amount that can be carried from year to year. Premiums for RED Annex IX Part A fuels should grow as demand for corresponding ERE-Gs does the same. But ERE-B values — comprising fuels from RED Annex IX Part B feedstocks — will be affected by a mismatch between RED III vs FuelEU Maritime rules . Shipping mismatch Under FuelEU, a separate legislation from RED III, Part B fuels remain eligible, whereas the domestic transposition of RED III means EREs count the same as using fossil fuel for only the maritime obligation. Shipping vessels are likely to either bunker elsewhere, or opt for Part A fuels that can meet both mandates. Maritime suppliers can source up to 0.9pc of their mix from road and inland waterways, preserving a narrow role for Part B fuels via cross-sector ERE flows. But EREs from shipping cannot be used by land suppliers. Aviation fuel blending will no longer generate Dutch tickets, removing a source of Part B tickets, as the bio-component of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) has mostly been produced from used cooking oil. Overall, liquidity in the Netherlands will fragment by sector — LREs for land, BREs for inland shipping and ZREs for maritime shipping — all taking a Dutch acronym. Across the EU, GHG-based transport fuel mandates with tight feedstock caps should tighten supply of Part A fuels and renewable fuels from non-biological origin (RFNBOs), while remaining energy-based systems may lean on conventional and Part B biofuels. The Dutch-German axis, as the largest GHG-based ticket markets, may increasingly anchor to Part A fuel tickets. Advanced biofuel suppliers will be monitoring which market provides better ticket value for their fuel at a given time. France also plans to replace its energy-based TIRUERT tickets with GHG-based IRICCs in 2027 . Outside the RED III remit, the UK is consulting on whether to follow suit as it updates its RTFO scheme; consultation updates are expected in early 2026, and any resulting changes are expected in 2027. By Madeleine Jenkins Fuel ticket systems in Europe GHG-based renewable fuel ticket systems Germany – THG (€/t CO₂e) Austria - THG (€/t CO₂e) Netherlands – ERE (€/kg CO₂e) Energy-based renewable fuel ticket systems Belgium – HEE (€/megajoule) Ireland – RTFO (€/megajoule) Italy – CIC (€/10 Gcal) France - TIRUERT (€/m3, €/MWh) Spain – CCRs (€/toe) Portugal – TbD (€/toe) Volumetric-based renewable fuel ticket systems UK – RTFO (£/litre) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EcoCeres exports first SAF output from Malaysia's Johor

25/12/17

EcoCeres exports first SAF output from Malaysia's Johor

Singapore, 17 December (Argus) — Hong Kong-based biofuels producer EcoCeres has exported the first sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) volumes produced at its new hydrotreated biofuels plant in Johor, Malaysia, according to a company LinkedIn post and company sources. EcoCeres exported 10,000t of SAF last week, a company source said. The cargo was purchased by Mitsui Energy Trading Singapore (Mets), a subsidiary of Mitsui, and was loaded on a vessel that sailed from Tanjung Langsat and is bound for Europe, EcoCeres said in its LinkedIn post. The Medium Range vessel Stolt Glory loaded 10,000t of SAF from Tanjung Langsat on 5 December, and is due to reach Rotterdam in mid-January, according to Kpler data. But another company source declined to confirm if this was EcoCeres' cargo. The biofuels producer previously produced its first on-specification SAF volumes at Johor in October . The plant, which can produce a maximum of 420,000 t/year of SAF and hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO), is now running at full rates, a company source said. The Argus fob ARA SAF price fell to nearly four-month lows of $2,247/t on 3 December, but has since risen slightly to $2,281/t as of 16 December. The decline was likely on the back of a lack of urgency among EU suppliers to fulfill mandates at the start of the new obligation year, although some volumes were traded this week , possibly because buyers were locking in deals in advance. EcoCeres also operates another 350,000 t/yr SAF and HVO plant in Jiangsu, China. By Sarah Giam Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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