Viewpoint: US ethane supply poised for further growth

: LPG
22/12/20

US ethane supply is expected to rise in 2023 following high levels of ethane recovery from gas processing and reduced petrochemical demand for the feedstock in 2022.

Ethane recovery levels in the Permian basin in Texas and New Mexico reached maximum levels starting in the fourth quarter of 2022 after natural gas prices at the Waha hub in West Texas fell due to constrained takeaway capacity. Waha prices fell as low as -$0.565/mn Btu in October and averaged $3.09/mn Btu in the fourth quarter, creating an incentive for increased ethane recovery.

Mont Belvieu, Texas, EPC ethane prices have averaged 39.75¢/USG in the fourth quarter through mid-December. Ethane's premium to its fuel value relative to natural gas at the Waha hub averaged 19.39¢/USG in that time and rose as high as 43.79¢/USG when Waha prices were at their lowest.

Permian basin ethane rejection levels stand at 50,000-75,000 b/d according to estimates from midstream company Enterprise Products, a sharp decline from the 200,000-250,000 b/d of rejection the company estimated in August, when natural gas prices were higher.

Waha is projected to have continued takeaway constraints in 2023, maintaining a favorable spread for ethane recovery throughout the year and causing ethane supplies at Mont Belvieu to build. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that ethane production will average 2.61mn b/d in 2023, up by 7.85pc from 2022 levels, as natural gas production grows.

Petchem demand disappoints

The EIA initially estimated that ethane production would grow to meet increased demand from three new steam crackers that came online in 2022, but petrochemical demand for the feedstock was lackluster in the second half of the year and shows no sign of improving going into 2023. Petrochemical demand for ethane has abated as ongoing downstream supply chain issues have created a backlog of ethylene.

EPC ethane's spread to its fuel value at the Henry Hub has averaged a discount of 1.20¢/USG in the fourth quarter, as declines in ethane prices outpace losses in Nymex natural gas prices.

Most US ethylene crackers are configured to use ethane because it is the most cost-effective option compared to propane, butane, and naphtha, which can rise with higher crude prices. But cracking margins for US ethane narrowed in the second half of 2022 and even fell into negative territory, according to Argus modeling, as ethylene stocks grew. In the fourth quarter, ethylene cracker margins for ethane averaged $52.78/t, up from an average of $17.66/t in the third quarter, but still well below year-earlier margins of $397.74/t.

US ethylene producers have cut run rates to under 80pc of utilization since the third quarter because of the narrower margins, and they expect to continue operating at reduced rates going into 2023. Because of elevated ethylene inventories and narrow cash margins, there is no incentive for steam crackers to increase operating rates. The increase in supply has made ethane prices less volatile and the outlook for cracker margins relatively stable. Should ethylene demand increase or ethane prices decrease, causing margins to widen, producers will begin to ramp up ethylene production again in 2023.

Internationally, petrochemical demand for ethane is expected to grow in 2023. The EIA projects 460,000 b/d in US exports in the coming year as international petrochemical producers seek a cheaper alternative to heavier feedstocks, allowing exporters like Enterprise and Energy Transfer to expand term contracts.

By Abby Downing-Beaver

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25/12/16

Viewpoint: European HVO prices unlikely to ease in 2026

London, 16 December (Argus) — Northwest European hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) premiums have firmed on the year in 2025, setting the stage for continued strength as the market braces for higher blending targets in 2026. Premiums strengthen ahead of 2026 targets The Argus HVO Class II fob ARA premium to gasoil averaged $1,075/m³ during January-November, compared with $683/m³ in 2024. The premium firmed to $1,650/m³ on 21 October — a more than three-year high — driven by stronger demand from obligated parties rushing to meet RED targets before the end of the year. Increased consumption against relatively stable production has tightened supplies, and planned maintenance closures at European and Chinese facilities during the fourth quarter may continue to support values into early 2026. Germany's planned legislative changes in 2026 abolishing double-counting of Annex IX feedstocks could significantly boost HVO demand, as higher absolute volumes of biofuel will be needed to meet GHG reduction quotas, which then supports demand for drop-in fuels like HVO. The Netherlands is also planning an end to double counting and a switch to a greenhouse gas savings-based mandate, which could amplify demand in 2026. Trading activity reflects the bullish demand outlook — 888,000t of Class II futures traded on Ice in October, surpassing the previous record of 717,500t in June. Open interest now extends to December 2026, signalling confidence in sustained liquidity. Spot market activity has also picked up in 2025, with Argus Open Markets (AOM) volumes traded for HVO Class II reaching 122,000t in January to November 2025, surpassing the 2024 total of 44,000t. Producers tilt towards HVO over SAF EU sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) targets kicked in at 2pc this year and with this, producers are recalibrating output strategies. Definitive EU anti-dumping duties on Chinese biodiesel and HVO were imposed in February , and EU anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures already apply to HVO and biodiesel originating from the US and Canada. The China duties do not apply to SAF, but US duties do. HVO and SAF are made from oils and fats via hydrotreatment, but HVO requires fewer processing steps, usually making it the cheaper grade. But HVO Class II has often maintained a premium over SAF throughout 2025 because of different market fundamentals. This encouraged European producers to maximise HVO output over SAF. But tight SAF supply towards year-end — driven by export restrictions from China — pushed SAF premiums above Class II, with the SAF premium over HVO averaging $292/t in November. In October, some additional Chinese producers secured SAF export licences, and with the SAF mandate remaining at 2pc in 2026, European producers are expected to favour HVO production while SAF imports from duty-free China and Singapore fill the gap. The UK Trade Remedies Authority said in late November that it plans to recommend that the government places countervailing duties on US-origin HVO from March. Imports of US HVO into the UK have already declined this year because of the ongoing investigation, and participants expect volumes to fall further. To meet mandates, the UK is expected to lean more heavily on used cooking oil-based biodiesel, while some blenders may also look to secure supply from Nordic producers. By-products soften The Argus bionaphtha fob ARA price averaged $1,541/t in January-November, compared with $1,675/t across 2024. Despite the decline, premiums have recently been supported by stronger HVO and SAF prices, with used cooking oil-based bionaphtha a viable drop-in blending alternative to meet mandates. Looking ahead, participants expect that firm HVO prices will sustain higher bionaphtha premiums in 2026, while voluntary demand, particularly from petrochemical manufacturing, could provide additional support to the market. The biopropane premium to its propane counterpart at the ARA hub fell during 2025, with third quarter levels hitting record lows since Argus began the assessment in October 2023. Argus biopropane fca ARA outright averaged around $1,408/t in January–November, down from $1,597/t in 2024. Although HVO and SAF output have boosted biopropane supply, demand remains constrained without mandated use. Looking ahead, premiums are expected to stay capped unless government incentives accelerate adoption . By Evelina Lungu Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU to dilute Ice vehicle phase out: German lawmaker

25/12/15

EU to dilute Ice vehicle phase out: German lawmaker

Brussels, 15 December (Argus) — The European Commission is likely this week to dilute its plan to phase out sales of new internal combustion engine (Ice) vehicles by 2035, according to a lawmaker. "The ban on internal combustion engines is history," said Manfred Weber, the chair of parliament's largest centre-right group EPP. He said the commission will present on 16 December an automotive package that "will revise the CO2 standards for cars, reversing the disastrous ban on internal combustion engines". Weber is a member of Germany's CDU/CSU party, as is commission president Ursula von der Leyen. German chancellor Friedrich Merz has called on the EU to allow the sale of vehicles with highly efficient combustion engines, plug-in hybrids and range-extender EVs beyond 2035. This had faced pushback, with more than 150 European e-mobility firms requesting the commission "stand firm" on its 2035 target. An EU official said the target is now likely to be for a 90pc GHG reduction from 2035 for new vehicles. "As it stands the targets for 2030, but also 2035, are not realistic," said Sigrid de Vries, director general of the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA). "Even with a 90pc target [for reducing GHG by 2035], make no mistake, that will be very, very challenging." The European motor industry has already flagged the possibility of huge fines for manufacturers should they fail to meet existing emissions targets, which are for a 15pc reduction by 2029 compared with a 2021 baseline, and a 55pc reduction from the same baseline in 2030-34. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Aramco Jafurah project still in commissioning: Resend

25/12/15

Aramco Jafurah project still in commissioning: Resend

Clarifies distinction between raw gas and sales gas. Story originally published on 11 December Dubai, 15 December (Argus) — Saudi state-controlled Aramco has begun to commission the first phase of its giant Jafurah natural gas project, but is yet to begin full commercial operations, according to the company's executive vice president of gas Abdulkarim Al-Ghamdi. "Jafurah… we started the commissioning last week," Al-Ghamdi told the Middle East Gas Conference in Dubai on Wednesday. "And that will be commissioned fully now, for production, before year-end." The phase is "on schedule" and "in advanced commissioning", he said. Al-Ghamdi's comments are the first from Aramco since the Saudi finance ministry said production at Jafurah had begun. In its 2026 budget released last week the ministry listed "completion of the first phase of the Jafurah gas plant construction and commencement of production with a capacity of 450mn ft³/d," as one of the country's achievements for 2025. It did not specify a date for the start. Aramco has not made its own start-up announcement. A source close to the project said a formal Aramco announcement regarding Jafurah is likely "soon" ꟷ probably before the end of the year when commissioning is complete, as per Al-Ghamdi's comments. With in-place reserves of 229 trillion ft³ (6.87 trillion m³) of raw gas and 75bn bl of condensate, Jafurah is the largest unconventional gas field in the Mideast Gulf, and constitutes a major pillar of Aramco's ambitious gas expansion plans. The 450mn ft³/d capacity referenced by the ministry reflects the project's initial maximum raw gas processing, which aligns with Aramco's long-held plans for output to begin at 200mn ft³/d as sales gas, rising to 650mn ft³/d of sales gas by the end of 2026. A second phase, which is scheduled to come on stream in 2027, would then gradually lift sales gas production to 2bn ft³/d by the end of the decade. It constitutes part of an ambitious Aramco programme to expand gas production by more than 80pc by the end of the decade, relative to a 2021 baseline of 9.2bn ft³/d. This implies output of at least 16.6bn ft³/d by 2030, with Jafurah delivering just over one-quarter of the increase. Jafurah will also produce about 420mn ft³/d of ethane, and 630,000 b/d of NGLs and condensate as by-products by 2030. Traders told Argus last week that Aramco has offered spot Jafurah condensate for loading in February. Market sources say Jafurah condensate has an API gravity of 49.75° and sulphur content of 0.16pc. The ethane and NGLs will be sent to the Riyas fractionation plant, which is being built as part of the phase two development. The condensate will be sent to the Juaymah terminal, where Aramco is expanding its storage and export facilities. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Supply surplus masks regional market tightness: IEA

25/12/11

Supply surplus masks regional market tightness: IEA

London, 11 December (Argus) — A large global oil surplus is masking regional tightness in crude and products markets, the IEA said today. In its final Oil Market Report (OMR) for 2025, the IEA said oil prices have only fallen modestly despite the large supply overhang because of "diverging dynamics" across crude, NGLs and products in different regions. This disconnect "notably reflects the high share of exports subject to sanctions (15pc of crude and 11pc of products), lengthening of supply routes and a tight refining system," it said. The IEA's global oil supply and demand balances imply a 3mn b/d supply surplus in the fourth quarter of 2025, and more than 3.8mn b/d in 2026. While oil on water has been rising and inventories building in China — global observed inventories rose by 1.4mn b/d in October, to a four-year high, and preliminary data show a further increase in November — there has been a notable absence of stock builds in key Atlantic basin pricing hubs, the IEA said, which is supporting prices and keeping crude futures in backwardation. In products markets, refinery outages and a coming EU ban on imports of products derived from Russia crude has led to three-year high refining margins in November, the IEA said. This trend could continue in 2026 given "limited spare refining capacity outside of China." The IEA said NGLs are increasingly comprising a large share of the overall liquids supply surplus, limiting the overhang's effect on crude prices. The IEA upgraded its 2025 consumption growth forecast by 50,000 b/d to 830,000 b/d, based on an improving macroeconomic outlook and subsiding anxieties about trade tariffs. This would bring overall demand in 2025 to 103.92mn b/d. The IEA's first oil demand growth forecast for 2025, made in April 2024, had consumption growing by 1.15mn b/d. The IEA also upgraded its 2026 demand growth forecast by 90,000 b/d to 860,000 b/d, which would bring total demand to 104.79mn b/d. The IEA lowered its supply growth projection for 2025 by 100,000 b/d to 3.05mn b/d and for 2026 by 30,000 b/d to 2.45mn b/d. These were mainly because of disruptions to supplies in sanctioned countries such as Russia and Venezuela, the IEA said. This leaves supply forecast at 106.18mn b/d in 2025 and 108.63mn bd in 2026. The IEA said Russia's crude output fell by 210,000 b/d in November to 9mn b/d, which is 500,000 b/d below its Opec+ target for the month. Russia's oil exports fell by about 400,000 b/d in November to 6.9mn b/d, "as buyers assessed the implications and risks associated with more stringent sanctions." Venezuela's crude output fell by 150,000 b/d to 860,000 b/d "as sanctions and rising geopolitical tensions with the US limited the country's ability to market its oil," the IEA said. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Saudi Arabia brings giant Jafurah gas project onstream

25/12/03

Saudi Arabia brings giant Jafurah gas project onstream

Dubai, 3 December (Argus) — Saudi state-controlled Aramco has begun production from the first phase of the giant Jafurah natural gas project, the finance ministry said late on Tuesday. In its 2026 budget statement, the finance ministry listed the phase one start-up as one of Saudi Arabia's achievements in 2025. It didn't specify a date, but it is likely to have been in the past few days. It said production began at 450mn ft³/d, which is two and a half times the rate at which Aramco had long projected. With in-place reserves of 229 trillion ft³ (6.87 trillion m³) of raw gas and 75bn bl of condensate, Jafurah is the largest unconventional gas field in the Mideast Gulf and represents a major pillar of Aramco's ambitious gas expansion plans. Aramco has yet to announce the start up. It previously said it expects to lift sales gas output ꟷ or net production ꟷ to 650mn ft³/d by the end of 2026 in phase one. It is unclear if this stronger-than-anticipated start-up rate could translate into a higher end-2026 target. A second phase is scheduled to come on stream in 2027, to lift production to 2bn ft³/d by the end of the decade, Aramco has said. Aramco has an ambitious programme to expand gas production by more than 80pc by the end of the decade, relative to a 2021 baseline of 9.2bn ft³/d. This implies output of at least 14.7bn ft³/d by 2030, with Jafurah delivering more than one-third of the increase. Jafurah will also produce about 420mn ft³/d of ethane and 630,000 b/d of NGLs and condensate as by-products by 2030. The ethane and NGLs will be sent to the Riyas fractionation plant, which is being built as part of the phase two development. The condensate will be sent to the Juaymah terminal, where Aramco is expanding its storage and export facilities. By Nader Itayim Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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