LatAm EV sector calls for more incentives

  • : Electricity, Hydrogen
  • 23/01/25

Brazil, Chile and Mexico are pushing electromobility, but they still have some way to go before the sector really takes off

Electric vehicle (EV) sales are starting to gain traction in Latin America, although the region is still a long way behind more mature markets such as the US and Europe. The electromobility sector hopes that governments implement more, and much-needed, incentives to boost a still embryonic industry.

EV adoption is slowly under way in the three biggest markets in the region — Brazil, Mexico and Chile — where demand for EVs rose in 2022, supported by higher fossil fuel prices, the availability of a greater variety of electric cars, scooters, motorbikes and buses, and higher domestic manufacturing.

Brazil's new hope

EV sales in Brazil continued their growth last year, rising by 41pc to 49,245 units from 34,990 in 2021, according to local electric vehicle association ABVE. Brazil's total EV fleet has reached more than 126,500 vehicles.

The EV sector is optimistic about the outlook for sales and investment, following Brazil's recent change in government. The previous government proved reluctant to push policies that would support growth in the EV sector. But the new administration regards EVs as a way to pump life back into the otherwise subdued overall growth in automobile sales and to revive one of the economy's most important industries.

Vice-president Geraldo Alckmin — who also serves as the development, industry and commerce minister — said at a ceremony hosted by ABVE this year that the EV sector has the potential to revitalise the country's industrial base through investments in technology and the green economy.

A recent study by Brazil's automobile manufacturers association Anfavea estimates that two-thirds of new vehicle sales in Brazil will be EVs by 2035, based on international trends for similar markets.

The increase in sales also comes as more EV models become available to consumers. Prior to last year, Toyota was the only automobile manufacturer producing EVs in Brazil. China's CAOA Chery started producing hybrid vehicles in Brazil in 2022, while China's BYD announced plans to invest 3bn reals ($580mn) in Brazil, including in vehicle manufacturing. Some market participants are also completing studies into starting EV assembly in Brazil from 2024.

But a more rapid sectoral increase also depends on the expansion of charging stations. ABVE estimates that Brazil ended last year with roughly 3,000 charging stations, up from 1,250 in February 2022.

Chile's progress

Chile has made significant progress in adopting electric buses for its public transport system, but has been slower to promote a wider take-up of electromobility.

"The development of various public-private strategies to promote zero and low-emission technologies is absolutely necessary to achieve the country's electrification goals," says national automobile association Anac. Chile needs to invest in charging infrastructure and develop incentives to encourage EV purchases, the association says.

Nonetheless, the number of registered zero and low-emission vehicles rose by 106pc in 2022 to 6,904 units, according to Anac. But sales of these types of vehicle still represent only 1.6pc of the national automobile market, despite the massive rise last year, Anac says.

"This is mainly explained by the increased supply of zero and low-emission vehicles available in the country, which reached more than 95 models in 2022," Anac says. There is also greater interest among individuals and companies to buy energy-efficient vehicles, it adds.

The association expects sales to double in 2023, and again in 2025.

Chile in October 2022 passed a law exempting EVs from paying annual road taxes for two years. The exemption covers 75pc of road taxes in years three and four, 50pc in years five and six and 25pc in years seven and eight.

Road taxes are based on a vehicle's value and are, on average, 65pc higher for EVs than internal combustion vehicles, which also have a lower price tag.

The government has promised to introduce more incentives for the consumer to buy EVs in new legislation.

Chile's national EV strategy aims to end sales of most internal combustion vehicles in 2035, when all sales of light and medium vehicles, public transport and major mobile heavy equipment, such as mine trucks, will be zero-emission. All sales of smaller mobile equipment used in the construction, agriculture and forestry sectors are to be zero-emission by 2040, and those of cargo trucks and inter-urban buses by 2045.

Mexico manufacturing boost

Mexico set big goals last year for a conversion to renewable energy, and its automotive industry kept up the drive by manufacturing more EVs, but the country made very little practical progress in electromobility.

President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said in July that his government was aiming for half of the total vehicles manufactured in Mexico to be either electric or hybrid by 2030. This statement seemed important in a country like Mexico, which manufactured 3.15mn cars and ranked seventh in world automobile production in 2021, according to data from the International Organisation of Automobile Manufacturers.

At the same time, several automakers announced plans last year to manufacture more EVs at their plants in Mexico. US giant General Motors has embarked on a $1bn reconfiguration of its Coahuila plant — the company's second largest in Mexico — to produce only EVs there from 2024.

Dutch group Stellantis announced in July last year that it will produce hybrid and full EVs in Mexico, although it did not provide further details, while Ford increased production of the electric version of its Mustang Mach car at its plant in the State of Mexico.

But Mexico exports most of its automotive production, including most of the EVs being produced in the country, as domestic sales of these types of vehicle remain at very low levels.

A total of 39,477 EVs were sold in Mexico in January-October 2022, according to the latest data from the country's automotive association Amia, just 0.7pc more than in the same period of 2021.

Mexico offers some fiscal incentives for EVs such as lower urban highway fares, an exemption to pay the tax on new cars and higher tax-deductibility than for internal-combustion cars. But Amia believes these are not sufficient and has called several times for a comprehensive public policy that includes more incentives for EV producers, consumers and charging infrastructure.

Mexico currently has around 1,146 charging stations, Amia says.

Brazil EV sales

Chile EV sales

Mexico EV sales

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24/05/01

US gas industry pins hopes on AI power demand

US gas industry pins hopes on AI power demand

New York, 1 May (Argus) — US natural gas producers and pipelines have pivoted almost in unison this year to talking up what they see as one of the strongest bullish cases for gas this decade: surging electricity demand from yet-to-be-built data centers to power artificial intelligence software. EQT, the largest US gas producer by volume, in an investor presentation last week called growing data center demand the "cornerstone" to the "natural gas bull case." Combining its own research with data from the US Energy Information Administration, the gas giant forecast an increase in gas demand of 10 Bcf/d (283mn m3/d) by 2030 to generate electricity, mostly to run data centers. Its more aggressive data center build-out scenario envisions a whopping 18 Bcf/d increase in gas demand through 2030. Total US gas production is currently about 100 Bcf/d. Kinder Morgan, one of the largest US gas pipeline operators, this month forecast 20pc of US power being gobbled up by data centers in 2030, up from a 2.5pc share in 2022. Cobbling together projections from several consultancies and financial advisories, the company said the electricity needed to run artificial intelligence software alone will comprise 15pc of US power demand by 2030. If just 40pc of that demand is met by gas, that would represent an increase in gas demand of 7-10 Bcf/d, it said. This is roughly in line with the high end of US bank Tudor Pickering Holt's forecast for gas demand to power data centers through 2030 (1.3-8.5 Bcf/d) and well above Goldman Sachs' and consultancy Enverus' projections of 3.3 Bcf/d and 2 Bcf/d, respectively. New tech, old problems Separating the wide ranges of these projections is the highly speculative nature of forecasting demand years into the future for competing energy sources to power next-generation technology. But the major upside and downside risks, analysts say, concern the more humdrum challenges of permitting and building out energy infrastructure. Goldman Sachs expects 28GW, or 60pc, of the generation capacity needed to power new data centers through 2030 will come from natural gas — 9GW from combined cycle gas turbines and 19GW from gas peaker plants. But with an average lag of four years from the time a gas transmission project is announced to the time it enters service, to say nothing of the high probability of litigation being brought by environmentalists and landowners, construction and permitting timelines are "the most top of mind constraint for natural gas," the bank said. Indeed, litigation and opposition from state regulators have ultimately led developers to call off several interstate pipeline projects in the eastern US in recent years. The exception to the rule, Equitrans' 2 Bcf/d Mountain Valley Pipeline is moving forward only because congressional action allowed it to bypass federal permitting hurdles. This is a particular problem for the gas industry's hopes of exploiting the data center boom, as a large share of future data centers are slated to be built in the southeast US, far from the major US gas fields. New data centers representing 2 Bcf/d of gas demand in Georgia probably requires a new pipeline into the southeast, FactSet senior energy analyst Connor McLean said. Southeast premium A significant data-center buildout in the southeast without new pipelines could put upward pressure on regional gas prices, McLean said. This could exacerbate the effects of what has become perhaps the most prominent bullish case for US gas: a massive build-out of LNG export terminals along the US Gulf coast. With new export terminals pulling increasing volumes of gas south along the Transcontinental gas pipeline to super-chill and ship overseas in the coming years, the build-out in data centers will likely produce "an even bigger deficit in that southeast (gas) market," EQT chief financial officer Jeremy Knop told investors last week. "We think that market really, in time, becomes the most premium market in the country," he said. By Julian Hast Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Larger EU H2 bank auction could still clear below €1/kg


24/05/01
24/05/01

Larger EU H2 bank auction could still clear below €1/kg

Hamburg, 1 May (Argus) — The EU will launch a second European hydrogen bank auction later this year, ramping up the budget from a pilot for which results were published on 30 April. A bigger budget will allow more projects to win subsidies, but developers might still have to bid at or below €1/kg to stand a chance of being successful. As a result of the pilot, the EU will subsidise seven renewable hydrogen projects in Spain, Portugal, Norway and Finland with a total €720mn ($768mn), to be disbursed as a fixed premium per kg produced over a 10-year period. The European Commission picked the projects that requested the least support and the auction cleared at €0.48/kg, far below the bid ceiling of €4.50/kg . A second auction later this year is slated to have a much larger budget of around €2.2bn. This could open the door for projects with less competitive bids, but developers may still have to bid for less than €1/kg, data released by the commission suggest. If another €2.2bn had been available to the "next best projects" in the pilot, bringing the total budget to nearly €3bn, the auction would have cleared at around €1/kg, the data indicate. Spanish projects would have been the main beneficiaries of the larger budget. But it would have also unlocked subsidies for projects that did not field any winners in the pilot, including Germany, France, Austria and the Netherlands. This suggests that projects in these countries might be able to get subsidies in the second auction. That said, some German projects that participated in the pilot are bound to get funds from a separate €350mn budget set aside by Berlin , meaning they could not take part in the next round. In any case, the second round could clear even far below €1/kg, if developers revise their bidding strategies now they have indications from the pilot on how low they might have to go. Such signposts were not available for the first round, other than from a Danish auction last year with similar parameters — which had indicated that winning bids in the hydrogen bank pilot were likely to stay well below €1/kg . The commission plans to tighten some of the eligibility criteria for the second round , which might prevent some projects from participating again. A draft document suggests winners of the second round would have to commission their plants within three years, down from five in the pilot. And developers would have to provide a completion guarantee equivalent to 10pc of the requested subsidies, up from 4pc. The second auction will also have a lower bid ceiling of €3.50/kg based on the draft, although this is highly unlikely to be tested by the successful submissions. Budget uncertainties While previous commission comments suggested a budget of around €2.2bn for the second round, the draft rules leave the exact funds open. 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By Stefan Krumpelmann Renewable H2 projects selected in hydrogen bank pilot auction Project Coordinator Project location H2 output t/yr Electrolyser capacity MW Bid price €/kg Requested funding mn € eNRG Lahti Nordic Ren-Gas Finland 12,200 90 0.37 45.2 El Alamillo H2 Benbros Energy Spain 6,500 60 0.38 24.6 Grey2Green-II Petrogal Portugal 21,600 200 0.39 84.2 Hysencia Angus Spain 1,700 35 0.48 8.1 Skiga Skiga Norway 16,900 117 0.48 81.3 Catalina Renato PtX Spain 48,000 500 0.48 230.5 MP2X Madoqua Power2X Portugal 51,100 500 0.48 245.2 - European Commission Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mitsui makes delayed exit from Paiton power project


24/05/01
24/05/01

Mitsui makes delayed exit from Paiton power project

Tokyo, 1 May (Argus) — Japanese trading house Mitsui completed on 30 April the ¥109bn ($690mn) sale of its stake in Indonesia's 2,045MW Paiton coal-fired power plant in east Java following multiple delays. Mitsui originally tried to complete its exit by the end of March 2022 . It said the procedures with Paiton's offtaker Indonesian state-owned power firm Persero took more time than expected without providing further details. Japanese thermal power producer Jera withdrew from Paiton by selling its 14pc share in 2021. Mitsui sold its 45.515pc share in Paiton Energy, as well as a 45.515pc stake in Netherlands-based subsidiary Minejesa Capital and a 65pc stake in Singapore-based IPM Asia that are related companies of the Paiton project. Mistui sold the stakes to RH International (RHIS), which is a Singapore-based subsidiary of Thai power producer Ratch, and Indonesian power company Medco Daya Abadi Lestari's subsidiary Medco Daya Energi Sentosa (MDES). Paiton Energy is now owned by RHIS, MDES and Qatar-based company Nebras Power. Mitsui did not disclose their ownership ratios. Paiton consists of the 615MW No.7, 615MW No.8 and the 815MW No.3 units, which sell electricity to Persero through an unspecified long-term contract. Mitsui now holds 9.6GW of power capacity assets globally, with 8pc being coal-fired projects. The exit from Paiton cut its coal-fired ratio by 8 percentage points, while raising its renewable ratio by 3 percentage points to 32pc. Growing global pressure against coal-fired power generation likely prompted Mitsui to exit Paiton. Energy ministers from G7 countries this week pledged to accelerate "efforts towards the phase-out of unabated coal power generation". By Nanami Oki Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Italian April power imports drop on NTC restrictions


24/04/30
24/04/30

Italian April power imports drop on NTC restrictions

London, 30 April (Argus) — Italian net electricity imports fell to their lowest in more than a year in April owing to significant constraints in net transfer capacity (NTC) from France to Italy, supporting an increase in domestic generation. Net imports averaged 4.7GW in April, down from 7GW in March and well below 6.7GW in the same month last year, according to data from Italian transmission system operator Terna. This was the country's tightest net importing position for any month since August. Italian imports from France saw the largest year-on-year decline, averaging 1.5GW compared with 2.7GW in April last year. This was Italy's lowest net imports since August 2022. Imports from Switzerland also fell on the year, declining by 500MW to 2.3GW, the lowest since August last year ( see chart ). The steep drop in imports to Italy's north zone is largely a result of significant reduction in the available NTC on France's eastern borders. Since early March, strong commercial exports through all of France's eastern borders, combined with low availability of the French power grid because of planned and unplanned outages, have led to "an extremely tense situation" for the French transmission system, the country's grid operator RTE has said. These factors have led to soaring physical flows and security issues on some interconnectors on the France-Switzerland and France-Italy borders. RTE on 5 March reduced the day-ahead NTC on the France-Italy border from a scheduled 4.5GW to 1.6GW, but the measure proved "insufficient to mitigate operational issues", RTE said. The overloads, although close to the France-Italy border, were induced by high commercial exports on all of France's eastern borders, including those with Belgium and Germany. RTE consequently applied additional safety measures to guarantee the operational security of the grid, such as lowering the NTC on the France-Switzerland border from 2.5GW to 2GW. Export constraints have resulted in French prices remaining at a significant discount to Italy, with the French spot index delivering at an average discount of €59.13/MWh in April compared with €35.37/MWh in March and €28.61/MWh in April last year. And falling Italian imports have driven a 2GW year-on-year increase in domestic generation to 24.6GW in April, while Italian power demand has remained virtually stable at 28.8GW. Minimum temperatures in Milan averaged 6.6°C on 1-30 April, up from 5.3°C in March and above 5.7°C in April last year. RTE is expecting some NTC curtailments until the beginning of May and from August to mid-October, it said. By Timothy Santonastaso Italian imports by country GW Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

G7 countries put timeframe on 'unabated' coal phase-out


24/04/30
24/04/30

G7 countries put timeframe on 'unabated' coal phase-out

London, 30 April (Argus) — G7 countries today committed to phasing out "unabated coal power generation" by 2035 — putting a timeframe on a coal phase-out for the first time. The communique, from a meeting of G7 climate, energy and environment ministers in Turin, northern Italy, represents "an historic agreement" on coal, Canadian environment minister Steven Guilbeault said. Although most G7 nations have set a deadline for phasing out coal-fired power, the agreement marks a step forward for Japan in particular, which had previously not made the commitment, and is a "milestone moment", senior policy advisor at think-tank E3G Katrine Petersen said. The G7 countries are Italy — this year's host — Canada, France, Germany, Japan, the UK and the US. The EU is a non-enumerated member. But the pledge contains a caveat in its reference to "unabated" coal-fired power — suggesting that abatement technologies such as carbon capture and storage could justify its use, while some of the wording around a deadline is less clear. The communique sets a timeframe of "the first half of [the] 2030s or in a timeline consistent with keeping a limit of 1.5°C temperature rise within reach, in line with countries' net-zero pathways". OECD countries should end coal use by 2030 and the rest of the world by 2040, in order to align with the global warming limit of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels set out in the Paris Agreement, according to research institute Climate Analytics. The countries welcomed the outcomes of the UN Cop 28 climate summit , pledging to "accelerate the phase out of unabated fossil fuels so as to achieve net zero in energy systems by 2050". It backed the Cop 28 goal to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030 and added support for a global target for energy storage in the power sector of 1.5TW by 2030. The group committed to submit climate plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — with "the highest possible ambition" from late this year or in early 2025. And it also called on the IEA to "provide recommendations" next year on how to implement a transition away from fossil fuels. The G7 also reiterated its commitment to a "fully or predominantly decarbonised power sector by 2035" — first made in May 2022 and highlighted roles for carbon management, carbon markets, hydrogen and biofuels. Simon Stiell, head of UN climate body the UNFCCC, urged the G7 and G20 countries to lead on climate action, in a recent speech . The group noted in today's outcome that "further actions from all countries, especially major economies, are required". The communique broadly reaffirmed existing positions on climate finance, although any concrete steps are not likely to be taken ahead of Cop 29 in November. The group underlined its pledge to end "inefficient fossil fuel subsidies" by 2025 or earlier, but added a new promise to "promote a common definition" of the term, which is likely to increase countries' accountability. The group will report on its progress towards ending those subsidies next year, it added. Fostering energy security The communique placed a strong focus on the need for "diverse, resilient, and responsible energy technology supply chains, including manufacturing and critical minerals". It noted the important of "guarding against possible weaponisation of economic dependencies on critical minerals and critical raw materials" — many of which are mined and processed outside the G7 group. Energy security held sway on the group's take on natural gas. It reiterated its stance that gas investments "can be appropriate… if implemented in a manner consistent with our climate objectives" and noted that increased LNG deliveries could play a key role. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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