G7 climate pledges have left a window for new investment in natural gas, write Motoko Hasegawa, Yusuke Maekawa and Michael Ball
G7 environment and energy ministers have endorsed a target to reduce global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 60pc by 2035 against 2019 levels, aiming to spur an energy transition across all sectors.
The ministers, meeting in Sapporo, Japan, on 15-16 April, committed to reduce GHG emissions by around 43pc by 2030 and 60pc by 2035 against 2019 levels, while aiming to reach peak emissions as soon as possible — 2025 at the latest — and to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 at the latest. The interim emissions reduction target came as the ministers reaffirmed their commitment to take immediate and concrete actions to drive down emissions — with a view to keeping in reach the Paris climate goal of limiting the increase in global average temperature against pre-industrial levels to 1.5°C
The G7 ministers also pledged to accelerate the phasing out of unabated fossil fuels, end public investment in this sector and eliminate inefficient fossil fuel subsidies. They are pushing for the expansion of renewable energy to achieve a fully or predominantly decarbonised power sector by 2035 and net-zero emissions by 2050. Ahead of the meeting, non-governmental organisations Oil Change International and E3G slammed G7 members for failing to end new direct international public finance for unabated fossil fuels.
But the G7 meeting shows that not all fossil fuels are viewed as equal. The ministers restated their commitment to phasing out unabated coal-fired power generation, but accepted that new gas sector investment could be "appropriate", if it helps address potential market shortfalls provoked by the Ukraine war-led energy crisis. The EU members have looked at new LNG investment as a short-term measure to fill the Russian supply gap. But Japan has a longer-term interest in backing LNG supply, while the White House has encouraged LNG exporters, whose contractual commitments would run well into the 2040s.
The buck starts here
The world's advanced economies are also reacting to criticism of insufficient investment in the emerging economies' push for decarbonisation. The US is promising $1bn to the UN Green Climate Fund, the country's first contribution in six years to the global initiative to help developing countries address climate change, US president Joe Biden said on 20 April. Biden announced the funding during a virtual meeting of the US-led Major Economies Forum, when he also called on countries to commit to more aggressive reductions in GHG emissions ahead of the UN Cop 28 climate talks in Dubai later this year, warning that the world is at risk of falling short of what is needed to limit global warming.
"We all need to show up in Dubai with 2030 targets and actions aligned with the Paris temperature goals," Biden said. The US had pledged $3bn to the climate fund under former president Barack Obama, but had delivered just a third of this money before he left office. Developed countries had pledged to contribute $100bn/yr by 2020 to help developing nations address climate change, but they have so far fallen well short of that total to date. The Green Climate Fund had received about $18.2bn in confirmed pledges from about 45 countries and the EU, as of 31 March, and is in the process of raising additional funds.
The US expects China to match contributions toward emerging economies' transition needs and to stop funding overseas coal projects, US treasury secretary Janet Yellen separately said on 20 April. China should play its part on climate change without expecting any concessions from the US, according to Yellen, who called on China to deliver on its commitments under the US-China climate agreement made at the Cop 26 summit in Glasgow.
