EU steel sector set to struggle with green targets

  • : Electricity, Hydrogen, Metals
  • 23/06/02

The decade of decarbonisation that lies ahead for the EU's steel sector is plagued by mismatches in timing and scale, delegates said at a conference hosted by European steel association Eurofer this week in Brussels.

Renewable energy suppply — a problem of scale

The EU's renewable energy sector faces a steep hill to climb in terms of supplying the bloc's drive to decarbonise, including plans for greener steelmaking. Several steel producers have developed and constructed technology that facilitates low-emissions steelmaking, but renewable energy supply is not yet at the scale necessary to support mills' plans to decarbonise by the early 2030s. The EU requires a capacity of around 80-90GW of renewable energy in order to meet net-zero goals; 6GW were generated last year, said a delegate.

"More funding should go towards building more of the same stuff, rather than on new technological breakthroughs," said Giles Dickson, chief executive of European wind energy providers' association Wind Europe. Swifter permitting and approval processes could help the green energy sector to speed up its growth. "As an example, the German autobahn currently has 15,000 outstanding applications for the transport of wind turbine parts," added Dickson. Support for renewable energy companies' operational expenditure as provided under the Inflation Reduction Act in the US, rather than solely for capital expenditure as in the EU's net zero deal, could also provide welcome support for the sector's planned expansion.

German steelmaker Salzgitter is ahead of several other mills in Europe in terms of investing in the construction of direct reduced iron units and electric arc furnaces to facilitate lower-emissions steel production. But the road ahead is far from clear. "We have built the equipment but don't have the energy to feed it," a source at the mill said. The seven turbines that are now operational on the steelmaker's site currently account for only a minimal proportion of the mill's current energy requirements, let alone its future requirements.

Steel sector not confident of weathering ETS-CBAM transition

Eurofer and some of its members reiterated their concerns over the timing of the phase-out of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and the introduction of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.

With the phase-out of free emissions allowances under the ETS, carbon prices in the EU are forecasted at €100/t of CO2 equivalent or higher by 2030. "This means we will either be decarbonised by 2030 or gone," said Geert Van Poelvoorde, chief executive of ArcelorMittal Europe, also pointing out that the European steel sector has contracted by 20pc over the past 10 years. The approximately four years it takes to construct a direct reduction iron-electric arc furnace plant means it is not possible to decarbonise the EU's 80mn t/yr steel industry by 2030, said Poelvoorde. This puts the sector at significant risk of carbon leakage and further contraction, he added.

The carbon tax cost that mills will incur over the next few years will be greater than the funding needed for green investments, said Poelvoorde. But the allocation of free emissions allowances under the ETS has deincentivised decarbonisation efforts in the past and therefore can not be extended, said Jorgos Chatzimarkakis, chief executive of Hydrogen Europe, a European association representing the interest of the hydrogen industry. The European iron and steel sectors made an estimated €16.1bn in additional profits from the EU ETS in 2008-19, according to a study by consultancy CE Delft commissioned by Carbon Market Watch. "This is a very disruptive and challenging process for us," said a sustainability source at another European mill.


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24/05/03

US met coal suppliers expect belated supply tensions

US met coal suppliers expect belated supply tensions

London, 3 May (Argus) — US coking coal prices have so far brushed off any impact of the collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge in Baltimore on 26 March and the subsequent disruption of vessel traffic via the Port of Baltimore. Suppliers such as Arch Resources and Blackhawk that utilise the Baltimore shipping route have sought effective alternative arrangements so far and buyers have been largely comfortable despite some delays in laycans. Other suppliers such as Northern Appalachia's largest producer, Consol Energy's Bailey mine , which is a key supplier to Atlantic end-users, have faced more challenges, market participants suggest. The decline in fob Australia coal prices from last year's highs amid improved supply availability has also weighed on prices. The Argus assessed premium low-volatile coking coal fob Australia price was at $242.80/t on 3 May, largely unchanged from $254/t on 26 March after reaching a low of $224/t on 8 April. The US east coast prices have followed a similar trajectory, with low-volatile fob US east coast at $215/t today down from $220/t on 26 March after falling to a low in April. Low European demand has been one of the reasons behind the tepid response to coking coal shipment delays from the US. But with expectations of at least some recovery in the second half of 2024 and still no firm date on when the Baltimore traffic will return to normal, some US suppliers suggest coking coal prices may face some upward pressure later this year. Luxembourg-based steelmaker ArcelorMittal has kept its apparent steel demand outlook in Europe unchanged for 2024, expecting a growth of 2-4pc on the year . European steel association Eurofer downgraded its apparent steel consumption outlook for 2024 again , to 3.2pc from a previous forecast of 5.6pc, owing to worsening geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty, energy prices, inflation and higher interest rates. But this would still be an improvement from a 9pc fall in steel consumption in 2023. There is also optimism among US coal suppliers that Brazil may be a source of renewed demand in the coming months with domestic steel production expected to improve. The Brazilian government is due to increase taxes for some imported steel products after facing pressure from the domestic steel industry to apply tariffs on imports, in particular on Chinese steel. Taxes will be increased to 25pc on 11 steel products — mainly flat rolled — contingent on such import levels exceeding prescribed quotas, the trade ministry's committee on foreign commerce, Gecex/Camex, said. Brazil's crude steel output reached 31.9mn t in 2023, down by 6.5pc on the year, World Steel Association data show. In the US, the fall in seaborne met coal prices also points to potential consolidation in the sector and the possibility of supplies tightening down the road. Industry participants highlight that some of the small and mid-sized mining operations that have emerged in the past two years amid a strong price environment are struggling. Bens Creek Group, which operates the Bens Creek Mining project in West Virigina with around 30,000-35,000st (27,200-31,800t) per month of coking coal output, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in April. The year-to-date average price of high-volatile A for 2024 stands at $242.62/t fob Hampton Roads and is estimated to be above production costs for some of these mines. In 2022, high-volatile A prices averaged $347.81/t fob Hampton Roads, driven by a combination of market concerns over the Russia-Ukraine conflict and supply disruptions in Australia. While Russian coking coal remains available and competitively priced in the market, in particular a key supply source for China, US sanctions will continue to put pressure on major coal importers such as India and South Korea to reduce their Russian imports. The US announced fresh sanctions against Russian coal producer Sibanthracite's group of companies earlier this week. By Siew Hua Seah Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US job growth nearly halved in April


24/05/03
24/05/03

US job growth nearly halved in April

Houston, 3 May (Argus) — The US added fewer jobs in April as the unemployment rate ticked up and average earnings growth fell, signs of gradually weakening labor market conditions. The US added 175,000 jobs in April, the Labor Department reported today, fewer than the 238,000 analysts anticipated. That compared with an upwardly revised 315,000 jobs in March and a downwardly revised 236,000 jobs in February. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9pc from 3.8pc. The unemployment rate has ranged from 3.7-3.9pc since August 2023, near the five-decade low of 3.4pc. The latest employment report comes after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday held its target lending rate unchanged for a sixth time and signaled it would be slower in cutting rates from two-decade highs as the labor market has remained "strong" and inflation, even while easing, is "still too high". US stocks opened more than 1pc higher today after the jobs report and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.47pc. Futures markets showed odds of a September rate cut rose by about 10 percentage points to about 70pc after the report. Average hourly earnings grew by 3.9pc over the 12 month period, down from 4.1pc in the period ended in March. Job gains in the 12 months through March averaged 242,000. Gains, including revisions, averaged 276,000 in the prior three-month period. Job gains occurred in health care, social services and transportation and warehousing. Health care added 56,000 jobs, in line with the gains over the prior 12 months. Transportation and warehousing added 22,000, also near the 12-month average. Retail trade added 20,000. Construction added 9,000 following 40,000 in March. Government added 8,000, slowing from an average of 55,000 in the prior 12 months. Manufacturing added 9,000 jobs after posting 4,000 jobs the prior month. Mining and logging lost 3,000 jobs. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UK decoiler Atlantic Steel enters administration


24/05/03
24/05/03

UK decoiler Atlantic Steel enters administration

London, 3 May (Argus) — Birkenhead-based decoiler Atlantic Steel filed for administration yesterday, according to a filing seen by Argus . The company has been under pressure since its previous owners took a large chunk of cash out of the business as part of a management buyout in 2022. Credit insurers began to pull cover on the business towards the end of last year, and suppliers have been calling retention of title, which protects suppliers in the event of insolvency or bankruptcy, in recent days. Sources suggest the debt of the business at the time of administration is around £18mn. The previous owners are preferential creditors after the banks, as they were due another £5mn from the business, according to Companies House filings. Market sources suggest it is likely the business will be bought out of administration, with other service centres interested in the assets — the lease on the site expires in the next few years but is extendable, and Atlantic operates the largest decoiler in the UK, capable of decoiling over 2.5m wide. It is also situated on the dock at Birkenhead, which cuts inland transportation costs. The UK HRC market has been under pressure for a number of months, in line with the struggles seen in Europe. Argus ' weekly assessment was £605/t ddp West Midlands on 2 May, down from a recent peak of £700/t at the start of February. The assessment reached an all-time high of £1,200/t on 31 March 2022, and the management buyout took place later that year. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Italian flat steel trading at premium on low supply


24/05/03
24/05/03

Italian flat steel trading at premium on low supply

London, 3 May (Argus) — Italian coil prices are trading at an atypical premium to northwest EU prices, especially for downstream products such as cold-rolled coil (CRC) and hot-dipped galvanised (HDG) coil. Multiple factors are playing into the current trend, which several producers say is unlikely to be sustainable given higher costs for northwestern mills — most notably, the comparatively brighter economic picture in southern Europe compared with the north, and lower steel output in Italy. Germany manufacturing PMI data has been consistently below Italian levels since August 2022, and registered its last monthly growth nearly two years ago in June 2022. Italian manufacturing has expanded in five months over the same period, registering its last increase in March 2024. In recent years, German manufacturers have been buffeted by the loss of cheap Russian energy, a reduction in demand from key export markets, most notably China, as well as the lack of investment in infrastructure and political difficulties. And yet, German hot-rolled coil (HRC) output increased by 5pc year on year in the first quarter of this year, partially driven by mill restocking, while Italian output slumped by just over 9pc in the same period. Naturally, Acciaierie d'Italia halting furnaces and producing with just one asset of 1 mn t/yr capacity plays a role in the lower overall output, but it has also been running just one rolling line at low capacity. Novi Ligure has nearly stopped, and producing depending on if stocks of raw material match customer enquiry. Financially troubled re-roller Liberty Magona has also produced intermittently and at low levels as it has struggled to obtain letters of credit, and thus only produced when able to buy HRC by paying in advance, or financed by third-parties. Producer Arvedi has taken the decision to drastically reduce or even stop offering CRC over the past year, on its inability to compete with Asian import pricing. CRC is the only major flat steel product to have not been hit by dumping duties in recent years, and weak demand in Asia saw a shift of regional mills to the EU market. Ample quota availability for CRC also meant that safeguards were not a factor, unlike for HDG. Arvedi has continued supplying HDG, and is currently one of two constant Italian suppliers of the material. The only regular supplier of both downstream products has become re-roller Marcegaglia. Again, the mill has mostly been selling CRC for very prompt delivery enquiries, unable to compete with Japanese, Korean and Indian import CRC, which have become the reference. Despite the lower volumes of CRC the producer has been selling, it has tried to maintain the historical €10-20/t differential between CRC and HDG offers, with varying success over the past months. The uncertainty of the HRC import duty on "other countries" material has likely made the producer, which relies heavily on imported coils and is one of the largest spot buyers in the world, less clear on the discounts it can provide given the varied duty it has had to pay in recent quarters. Sales opportunities in central and east Europe over the past months have also aided its order books. Transportation costs, slim margins and regional competition, as well as weak fundamentals, have kept north EU mills more focused on closer-by markets. While some sellers have been present in Italy with both CRC and HDG, they have not been undercutting Italian producers. In addition, demand for HDG has been relatively stable, while stringent safeguard quotas have not allowed Italian prices to fall under pressure from imports. EU car registrations in the first quarter were up by 4.4pc year on year, and although both Germany and Italy posted growth, the German increase was below the average rate for the bloc, while Italy was up by 5.7pc. Clearly, EU producers have offloaded some volumes of both CRC and HDG in the export markets this year, with exports of the products rising dramatically in January-February. The majority of those volumes have come from northwest EU suppliers. Of late, rising import prices have also helped southern mills more, given the quicker impact imports have on domestic prices in the south. By Lora Stoyanova and Colin Richardson HDG CRC spreads $/t Germany and Italy manufacturing PMI Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Australia's WesCEF to pursue Li plans despite hurdles


24/05/03
24/05/03

Australia's WesCEF to pursue Li plans despite hurdles

Singapore, 3 May (Argus) — Australian conglomerate Wesfarmers will still pursue the strategy for its chemicals, energy and fertilisers arm (WesCEF) to be an integrated lithium producer, despite the recent lithium market downturn. Wesfarmers earlier this year warned of unprofitable lithium sales from its Mount Holland project , owing to high production costs as it goes through a ramp-up. But WesCEF plans to weather through the downturn and plow ahead with its lithium downstream developments, given strong long-term fundamentals and despite the market's immaturity and cyclical demand, according to the group's executives on 2 May. Spodumene prices in China — which dominates global consumption of lithium raw materials — were assessed at $1,080-1,180/t on 30 April, down sharply from $5,750-5,900/t at the start of 2023. "It's also worth remembering that when we invested in Covalent and took the final investment decision , lithium hydroxide prices were lower than they are today," said WesCEF's managing director Ian Hansen. Wesfarmers and Chilean lithium firm SQM jointly own Australian firm Covalent Lithium, which looks after the Mount Holland project that includes a mine, concentrator and its 50,000 t/yr Kwinana lithium hydroxide refinery. Completing the refinery's construction and commissioning remains WesCEF's priority, with the mine and concentrator going through a ramp-up, according to WesCEF. The firm is also progressing its potential expansion project for the mine and concentrator, which it submitted an application for environmental approvals. The first lithium hydroxide output out of the Kwinana refinery is still expected in the first half of 2025, with a delay in timeline. Covalent completed its first spodumene concentrate shipment earlier in March, said WesCEF. Wesfarmers expected its share of spodumene concentrate output from Mount Holland to be 50,000t in the current July 2023-June 2024 fiscal year. The share will rise to 150,000-190,000t in the upcoming July 2024-June 2025 fiscal year. Lithium downturn The lithium downturn has led to multiple firms, including major particpants across the lithium and battery supply chain, reporting poor January-March results. Australian lithium and nickel producer IGO, affected by slumps in the lithium and nickel markets, reported its first quarterly loss in years while posting lower output . Major US lithium producer Albemarle's executives have also called the market "unsustainable" in the long run, as it posts a whopping $1.1bn year-on-year fall in sales from its energy storage division. Major Chinese lithium producer Tianqi Lithium also suffered heavy losses, while global lithium firm Arcadium Lithium earlier this year cut its planned sales numbers this year and warned that current market prices will weigh on future supply. South Korea's top battery manufacturer LG Energy Solution (LGES) reported W157bn of operating profit in January-March , but would have reported an operating loss of W32bn if it did not receive almost W189bn in US Inflation Reduction Act tax credits. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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