US rail traffic slips despite rising coal volume

: Agriculture, Coal, Metals
23/06/28

US rail traffic fell last week from year-earlier levels despite an increase in coal volumes, while intermodal and grain shipments extended declines.

Total shipments on US-based railroads for the week ended on 24 June dropped by 3.2pc to 469,453 carloads and intermodal units compared with a year earlier, the Association of American Railroads (AAR) reported today. Those figures do not include the US operations of Canadian and Mexican-based railroads.

Railroads based in the US loaded 222,431 railcars last week, down by 0.4pc from a year earlier.

Coal volume rose to 63,459 carloads, up by 2.3pc from the same week last year.

Intermodal shipments decreased by 5.5pc to 247,022 containers and trailers. Intermodal traffic is made up mostly of goods shipped in containers and transferred between railroads, trucks and vessels.

Railroads also hauled less grain, with shipments down by 29pc to 14,647 carloads. Forest products volume fell by 6.9pc to 8,040 railcars.

US railroads increased shipments of five of the 10 commodity groups tracked by AAR last week.

The sharpest percentage gains occurred among shipments of motor vehicles and parts, which climbed by 27pc to 16,314 carloads. Also up from a year earlier were metallic ores and metals, which rose by 8.3pc to 22,482 carloads. Shipments in a miscellaneous category that includes waste and nonferrous scrap rose by 19pc to 10,403 carloads.

For the first 25 weeks of 2023, total US railroad traffic was 5.4pc lower than in the same period of 2022, totaling 11.5mn carloads and intermodal units. A 0.7pc increase in carload traffic was offset by an 11pc drop in intermodal shipments.

Canadian-based railroad volumes fell by 3.7pc last week to 158,585 carloads and intermodal units.

Canadian carriers increased carloads to 89,146 shipments, up by 1.4pc from the same week in 2022. That includes a 12pc rise in coal car loadings to 8,835 railcars. Canadian intermodal shipments fell by 9.5pc to 69,439 containers and trailers.

Mexican railroad shipments rose by 18pc for a total of 28,275 carloads and intermodal units compared with the year-earlier week. Carload traffic was up by 21pc, while intermodal shipments also rose by 13pc from a year prior.

Overall for the week ended on 24 June, total North American rail traffic fell by 2.6pc from a year earlier, dropping to 656,313 carloads and intermodal units. Intermodal shipments, down by 5.8pc, offset a 1pc increase in carload traffic.

By Ginikanwa Okoronkwo

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25/12/22

Viewpoint: Asean aluminium output to reach 2.7mn t

Singapore, 22 December (Argus) — Primary aluminium output in southeast Asia is expected to rise to 2.7mn t in 2026, but supply tightness will likely persist in the first quarter because the ramp up of new capacities will be gradual, while export demand will remain strong. Southeast Asia will add 780,000 t of primary aluminium output in 2026, driven by smelter expansion in Indonesia and new smelters in Vietnam. Of which, 705,000t will come from Indonesia, sending the country's expected total output to 1.55mn t. Key projects in Indonesia include Chinese-backed Juwan in Weda Bay, Taijing in Morowali and Kaltara in North Kalimantan. Taijing and Juwan, jointly developed by Chinese companies Tsingshan and Xinfa, are expected to bring new capacity on line in 2026. Taijing plans to start production in the third quarter of 2026 with expected output of around 180,000t, while Juwan expects to reach its full capacity of 250,000 t/yr in the first quarter of 2026. Kaltara, developed by Indonesian firm Adaro and Chinese firm Lygend, began phase one operations in October-December. It plans to ramp up to its full phase one capacity of 500,000 t/yr by October 2026. These projects form part of Indonesia's strategy to leverage its abundant bauxite reserves. Indonesia's ample bauxite reserves and its success in developing a local nickel supply chain over the past decade have attracted a growing number of Chinese value-added producers seeking to integrate production chains in the country. In addition, more Chinese value-added-product (VAP) producers have expanded operations in Indonesia over the past eighteen months. They are looking to diversify supply chains to pre-empt any disruptions if China reaches its government-imposed annual capacity cap of 45mn t/yr for aluminium production. China produced about 3.8mn t of primary aluminium during January-October, up by 2pc from a year earlier, according to China's National Bureau of Statistics. This trend of building integrated supply chains locally in Indonesia is expected to absorb part of Indonesia's additional primary aluminium output in the coming years, given that some Chinese producers are likely to purchase aluminium to process into VAPs. Meanwhile, exports will continue to grow. Indonesia's primary aluminium exports rose by 71pc on the year to 414,600t in January–October, from 243,000t in the same period a year earlier. China remained the top destination, taking 191,500t, or 46pc of total volumes. Exports of aluminium value-added products — under HS code 7604, 7605, 7606, 7607, 7608, 7609, 7610 and 7616 — increased by 40pc on the year to around 111,000t in the same period, according to Global Trade Tracker data. Power stability and reliance on coal remain key bottlenecks for Indonesian smelters. Coal-fired captive plants dominate power supply, while renewable energy adoption is slow because of long lead times for infrastructure development and high costs, despite government efforts to push integration under its Net Zero 2060 roadmap, market participants said. In other parts of southeast Asia, Vietnam's Dak Nong smelter will commence the first phase of its operations, which has a nameplate capacity of 150,000 t/yr, in the second quarter of 2026. The project is expected to produce 75,000t of aluminium in 2026. Malaysia's Press Metal remains southeast Asia's largest integrated aluminium producer with a capacity of 1.08mn t/yr. Press is expected to operate at a utilisation rate close to 100pc for 2025 and 2026. Demand for Press' products from its smelter in Sarawak, which are considered low-carbon products in Turkey and Europe because of its hydro-powered smelter, will likely rise in response to EU's tighter carbon boarder adjustment mechanism (CBAM) requirements, effective on 1 January 2026. Indonesian state-owned producer Inalum is expected to keep output at around 280,000t or raise it slightly to about 285,000t in 2026. By Candice Luo Southeast Asia aluminium output outlook t Smelter Company Country 2025E ('000) 2026E ('000) ± in 2026 Designed Capacity ('000 t/yr) Press Metal Bintulu Press Metal Malaysia 960 960 0 960 Press Metal Mukah Press Metal Malaysia 120 120 0 120 Inalum Kuala Tanjung MIND ID Indonesia 280 285 5 600 Hua Chin Aluminum Indonesia Tsinghan/Huafon Indonesia 490 500 10 500 Taijing (IMIP Phase I) Tsinghan/ Xinfa Indonesia 0 180 180 600 Juwan (IWIP Phase I) Tsingshan /Xinfa Indonesia 50 250 200 250 Xianfeng (IWIP Phase II) Tsingshan /Xinfa Indonesia 0 50 50 250 Bintan Nanshan (BAI) Nanshan Group Indonesia 0 0 0 1,000 Kaltara Adaro, Lygend Indonesia 20 280 260 500 Dharma Inti Bersama (DIB) Harita Indonesia 0 0 0 1,000 East Hope Indonesia East Hope Indonesia 0 0 0 2,400 Dak Nong Dak Nong Vietnam 0 75 75 450 Duc Giang Duc Giang Vietnam 0 0 0 500 Bosal Malaysia project Bosal Malaysia 0 0 0 1,000 Total 1,920 2,700 780 10,130 Source: Argus Media, Company reports, Market sources Indonesia primary aluminium shipments by market in 2025 1Q 2Q 3Q Jan-Oct '25 China 15,504 64,547 87,356 191,475 South Korea 46,188 13,599 4,500 65,787 Vietnam 7,893 9,114 16,938 42,284 Turkey 29,997 5,899 - 35,896 Malaysia 4,000 1,000 16,094 22,394 Thailand 2,520 7,891 10,191 20,702 Japan 2,250 5,775 3,050 11,700 Spain - - - 10,000 Taiwan 1,646 4,346 1,698 9,390 Italy 4,647 - - 4,647 Others - - 200 302 World 114,645 112,272 140,027 414,577 Source: BPS-Statistics Indonesia,Global Trade Tracker Monthly primary aluminium exports from Indonesia (t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Chile to audit SQM-Codelco lithium deal

25/12/19

Chile to audit SQM-Codelco lithium deal

Sao Paulo, 19 December (Argus) — Chile's comptroller general office (CGR) will audit "certain operations associated with" the SQM-Codelco agreement to form a lithium production joint venture, following complaints by some of the country's parliamentarians and indigenous communities, further delaying the deal. CGR on 18 December said its scope is limited to verifying whether government actions follow the law and to audit public spending. The agency said that it is forbidden from judging whether a policy or administrative decision is a good idea or convenient. CGR does not have the power to veto the deal, because the main legal challenges to the agreement are either in court, where the watchdog has been ordered not to comment, have already been resolved by judges, or involve policy judgments that Chilean law does not allow CGR to review. As a result, its role is limited to reviewing the agreement for potential irregularities. It can flag legal inconsistencies and delay the deal's effective date until any identified issues are rectified. CGR's audit will focus on the state-owned company Codelco's financial advisory contract with investment bank Morgan Stanley, as well as Codelco's operations, to determine whether public resources are being used appropriately. The audit will also examine claims from a congressional investigative commission regarding the transparency of the negotiation process, SQM's tax situation, and a clause that relates to Codelco's obligation to sell 100pc of extracted potassium to SQM under the partnership. The Atacama desert's brines, from which the joint venture will produce lithium, contain potassium that is precipitated and extracted alongside lithium. Additionally, CGR will review whether the companies' directors acted lawfully and examine Chile's economic development agency Corfo's approval of the contracts that underpin the partnership. These include Corfo's contracts with SQM, which allow lithium extraction in the Atacama salt flats through December 31, 2030, and its contracts with Codelco's lithium subsidiary Minera Tarar, which enables operations at the site from 2031 to 2060. Corfo's mining lease and project contracts are a key legal step in allowing Codelco to partner with a private company — SQM, in this case — to mine lithium in that area under the national lithium strategy of President Gabriel Boric, who leaves office in March. Although the SQM-Codelco agreement , which was struck in May 2024 and would extend SQM's authorization to continue extracting lithium in the Atacama salt flats from January 2031 to 31 December 2060, does not have a hard deadline to close, it is still running against the clock. If the deal is not sealed by 31 December 2025, a contract clause in the partnership agreement allows any party to void the deal if they so choose. If this deadline is not met, Chile would also reduce SQM's lithium extraction quota by 300,000 metric tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent for the remaining period until 31 December 2030, when the company's current mining permit ends. The joint-venture also faces opposition from Chile's newly elected president Jose Antonio Kast . The far-right politician said he would honor the deal if it is sealed before he takes office, but risk of an overturn would grow if that condition is not met before he is sworn in on 11 March 2026. By Pedro Consoli Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico central bank cuts target rate to 7pc

25/12/19

Mexico central bank cuts target rate to 7pc

Mexico City, 19 December (Argus) — Mexico's central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 7pc, its lowest level since June 2022, maintaining a slower pace in the easing cycle on inflation concerns. The decision marked the eighth rate cut this year and the fourth quarter-point reduction following four consecutive half-point cuts. This year's cuts follow five quarter-point cuts in 2024 from a cyclical peak of 11.25pc in March. The board approved the cut in a 4-1 vote, with deputy governor Jonathan Heath dissenting in favor of holding the rate at 7.25pc. Heath has been the lone dissenter in the past five decisions, consistently urging greater caution. The central bank said the decision reflected "the behavior of the exchange rate, the weakness of economic activity and the possible impact of changes in global trade policies," repeating language used in its last four statements. Gabriela Siller, chief economist at Banco Base, pointed to a "significant change" in the bank's forward guidance, noting a shift toward a less dovish tone. The board said it "will consider when to make further adjustments" to the policy rate, replacing the "will consider cutting" language used in November. Mexican bank Banorte also said the central bank struck a less dovish tone, pointing to a change in its forward guidance. Annual inflation rose to 3.8pc in November from 3.57pc in October, according to statistics agency Inegi. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, accelerated to 4.43pc from 4.28pc. The central bank now sees headline inflation ending 2025 at 3.7pc, up from 3.5pc in its November forecast, while core inflation is projected at 4.3pc, revised from 4.1pc. It also raised its headline and core forecasts for the first two quarters of 2026, while maintaining that both will converge to its 3pc target by the third quarter. The bank said the revisions mainly reflect a "more gradual-than-expected" easing in services inflation, along with a smaller contribution from accelerating consumer goods prices. The board also addressed recent tax reforms, which it expects will have a temporary and not necessarily proportional impact on prices, adding it will update its forecasts as it conducts a comprehensive assessment of the revised tax code's effects. By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Al industry faces structural Europe decline

25/12/19

Viewpoint: Al industry faces structural Europe decline

London, 19 December (Argus) — The European aluminium industry has heard some highly optimistic forecasts for prices and demand recovery in 2026 at a series of late-year industry events that started with London Metal Exchange (LME) Week in October. But that optimism rests on assumptions of a sharp recovery in demand for which there is no real evidence, and concerns are growing that the extended downturn in European manufacturing represents a more structural shift in global industrial power. Some industry analysts forecast in October that LME aluminium prices could reach $3,000/t by the end of 2025, and even threaten the $4,000/t mark at some point in 2026. The forecasts assumed a continuation of the supply tightness that has become a major driver of global aluminium markets in 2025 as Chinese output has neared its production cap of 45mn t/yr and production growth has also slowed elsewhere, as many regions focus away from capacity expansion. But the bullish price projection was also supported by expectations of a recovery in demand from manufacturing industries following a lengthy period of contraction, particularly in Europe. With demand levels for aluminium-intensive goods currently well below trend, those analysts foresee a much better demand outlook for next year. But the reality may be that the downturn in aluminium demand in Europe is more structural, and as a result there is no reason to expect a significant improvement just because it is due in an historical context. The automotive sector is a particularly potent example. After a steep fall in manufacturing rates in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic, Europe's automotive sector has yet to recover to 2019 levels. Production even fell back in 2024 by more than 6pc from the previous year on strong competition from China and lower consumer spending because of high inflation and rising interest rates. European car production fell further in the first half of 2025, by 2.6pc on the year as stricter emissions targets, high energy costs and US import tariffs hit output. Even relief in the form of falling interest rates or more affordable energy would not be enough to bring European car manufacturing back to 2019 levels. As European output has fallen, other countries have risen to take its place. Global car production grew by 3.5pc in the first half of this year, with Chinese output jumping by 12pc on the back of climbing electric vehicle (EV) sales, thanks to policy support and, crucially, rising exports. As Europe once led the world in internal combustion engine markets, so China is now leading in EVs. "The European industry sold ICE [internal combustion engine] cars all over the world, including to China, but that era is now over," executive director of clean transport think tank Transport & Environment William Todts said at the European Aluminium Summit in Brussels last month. "Fifty percent of the Chinese market has gone, and the European market is shrinking. That transformation is extremely challenging." Europe must recognise this new world order and adjust its policy goals accordingly. Much of Europe's trade and industry policy was designed for the dominant global industries the region enjoyed in the past, and new policies must be enacted to support new markets or the downturn in European manufacturing will extend further and deeper. "I'm very worried about the downturn being structural. Europe has huge energy costs and I don't see carmakers growing against the Chinese competition," chief executive of aluminium products manufacturer HAI Group Rob van Gils said in Brussels. "I don't think it's a cycle and it will be very tough in the next couple of years," he added. "We need an evergreen approach. Europe is just surviving. It is not innovating. Industry is stuck." By Jethro Wookey Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Indonesia’s MHP surge to hit nickel prices

25/12/19

Viewpoint: Indonesia’s MHP surge to hit nickel prices

Singapore, 19 December (Argus) — Indonesia is likely to expand its mixed-hydroxide-precipitate (MHP) plant capacity further in 2026, supported by record-high cobalt prices and strong production economics, a move that could deepen nickel oversupply and weigh on prices. Current output Indonesia's MHP output is projected to reach 482,000t in nickel metal equivalent this year — almost a 50pc rise from 2024, according to Argus estimates. Argus -assessed 37pc nickel payable MHP prices have fallen by 2.6pc on the year to $127.40/metric tonne unit (mtu) so far in 2025, while Class 1 nickel prices have dipped from $17,000/t to around $15,350/t over the same period. Nickel prices will likely remain depressed in the low-$15,000s/t range in 2026 because supply expansion is outpacing demand growth. Demand has slowed as the electric vehicle (EV) market growth has cooled in recent years, with annual growth in global EV car sales slowing from 26pc in 2024 to 23pc in 2025. Nickel demand growth could also face further headwinds from increasing competition from other battery types such as nickel-free lithium-iron-phosphate and high-manganese chemistries. This could increase the nickel surplus, further weighing down on overall nickel prices. Indonesia has consolidated its position as the leading global MHP supplier after most Western plants halted operations in late 2023. The country currently hosts around 10 operating MHP projects with a combined designed capacity of about 440,000 t/yr of nickel. Most projects are owned by Chinese giants Ningbo Lygend, Green Eco-Manufacture (GEM), and Huayou, in collaboration with local producers Merdeka, Harita Nickel, and PT Vale Indonesia (PTVI). MHP capacity expansion More MHP projects are expected in the near-term, bolstered by elevated cobalt prices, as MHP typically contains 2-5pc of cobalt. Refineries have been seeking cobalt alternatives because of constrained supply following export restrictions imposed by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) since February. Indonesia's cobalt feedstock capacity is projected to hit around 65,000 t/yr in 2026, while global cobalt supply is expected to hit 210,000t over the same period, according to Argus data. The lucrativeness of MHP in comparison with other nickel products, such as nickel pig iron (NPI), is another driver for investment. MHP production cost: $10,500–11,000/t (December estimate) Processing cost to convert MHP into nickel metal: $3,000–3,500/t Total cost for MHP to nickel metal: $13,500–14,500/t NPI to nickel metal cost: $14,000–14,500/t Additionally, cobalt by-product sales (around $2,000/t) help offset MHP production costs, effectively reducing net costs to $11,500–12,500/t, making MHP more lucrative than NPI. Outlook Concerns are mounting that rapid expansion of Indonesia's MHP capacity will further pressure on nickel prices. Argus forecasts Indonesia's MHP capacity to nearly double on the year to 862,000 t/yr in 2026, as several HPAL projects are scheduled to be commissioned in 2026. While not all capacity will translate into production, any additional output will add to an already oversupplied market, intensifying the glut. The overall nickel surplus is estimated at 212,000t in 2025 and is projected to reach 288,000t in 2026, according to Argus data. Indonesia has tightened its efforts to regulate nickel pricing and oversupply this year, reverting the validity period for RKAB mining quotas to one year. The government also suspended some nickel mines due to a lack of reclamation and post-mining guarantees, while lands were seized from Weda Bay Nickel and Tonia Mitra Sejahtera for lacking forestry permits. These policy changes have yet to significantly impact nickel prices, but remain critical factors that could disrupt supply and influence the price outlook. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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