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Baixa liquidez de adubos pode causar gargalo logístico

  • : Agriculture, Fertilizers
  • 23/06/30

A baixa liquidez no mercado brasileiro de fertilizantes tem deixado vários setores preocupados com a possibilidade de gargalos logísticos quando os produtos armazenados nos portos forem transportados.

A comercialização de soja e milho estão abaixo dos níveis do ano anterior devido aos preços mais baixos. Isso contribui para a compra mais lenta de insumos para a safra de soja de 2023-24, mesmo com as taxas de relação de troca em níveis mais favoráveis para os agricultores. As entregas de fertilizantes ao mercado têm sido mais lentas desde o início do ano. De acordo com dados da Associação Nacional para Difusão de Fertilizantes (Anda), 12 milhões de t foram entregues entre janeiro e março, queda de 3,7pc em comparação com o mesmo período de 2022.

A situação também é afetada pelo cancelamento de contratos de compra de fertilizantes. Alguns agricultores estão se recusando a receber adubos cujos contratos foram assinados em períodos anteriores e a preços mais altos.

Nesse caso, a queda no frete rodoviário de fertilizantes é ainda mais acentuada neste ano, devido à menor demanda pelo serviço de transporte até o momento. Em junho de 2022, o frete na rota Paranaguá-Rondonópolis atingiu um preço médio de R$ 243/t, queda de 21pc em relação a janeiro de 2022, quando o frete atingiu um dos níveis mais altos do ano. Em junho de 2023, o frete na mesma rota foi de R$ 201/t, queda de 35pc em relação a janeiro.

Na rota Santos/Cubatão-Rondonópolis, a taxa média de frete em junho de 2022 atingiu R$ 253/t, queda de 16,2pc em relação a janeiro. Em junho de 2023, o frete médio foi de R$ 243/t, queda de 22pc em relação a janeiro.

Portanto, existe a preocupação de que as entregas restantes de fertilizantes armazenados também sejam mais lentas, especialmente de algumas origens, pois há o risco de enfrentar longas filas nos portos brasileiros, mesmo com a expectativa de menores importações de fertilizantes em 2023.

As importações de fertilizantes do Brasil neste ano estão atrasadas em relação ao ano passado. De acordo com os dados do Global Trade Tracker (GTT), considerando os principais tipos de fertilizantes e matérias-primas, 15,6 milhões de t foram importadas entre janeiro e maio de 2023, queda de 8pc em comparação com o mesmo período do ano passado. Um grande volume foi importado em 2022 nesse período, devido às preocupações sobre o conflito entre Rússia e Ucrânia.

No entanto, os estoques de fertilizantes são altos, o que contribui para uma maior oferta no mercado doméstico. De acordo com dados da Anda, no fim de 2022 os estoques estavam em 9,2 milhões de t, aumento de 19,1pc em relação aos 7,7 milhões de t mantidos no fim de 2021. Portanto, há um volume significativo a ser entregue aos agricultores.

Isso também pode aumentar os custos logísticos, já que, com a maior demanda por transporte, os fretes de fertilizantes com origem nos principais portos do país devem aumentar em meio à concorrência por veículos disponíveis.

Nessa equação logística para o transporte rodoviário de fertilizantes, a colheita da segunda safra de milho de 2022-23 pode ajudar a baratear o frete de fertilizantes devido às condições de frete-retorno. Quando os volumes de fertilizantes chegam ao seu destino, se houver cargas de grãos disponíveis para transporte, motoristas podem aceitar um frete melhor.

Porém, com a queda nas cotações e nos prêmios de exportação, que caíram mais intensamente desde março, a tendência é que agricultores optem por manter grãos e oleaginosas armazenados, aguardando preços mais altos para o segundo semestre. Há também um volume significativo de soja aguardando negociação, o que impacta as condições de frete-retorno de fertilizantes. Nesse caso, o frete de fertilizantes acaba sendo mais caro, já que a pior situação para os caminhoneiros é rodar sem carga na estrada, uma vez que isso deprecia os veículos e os motoristas não recebem nada.

Novas possibilidades no Arco Norte

O crescimento da importância dos portos do Arco Norte na exportação de grãos já é uma realidade, pois se trata de uma via relevante para as exportações brasileiras.

Essa região vem ganhando mais atenção de agricultores, especialmente do estado de Mato Grosso, o maior produtor de soja do país. Também está se tornando um ponto logístico para a movimentação de combustíveis da região Centro-Norte.

Essas novas condições contribuem para aliviar a fila de navios e o fluxo de caminhões que normalmente se concentram principalmente nos portos de Santos e Paranaguá. O porto brasileiro de Vila do Conde, no Pará, foi recentemente liberado para exportar milho para o mercado chinês.

Com o aumento da relevância dos grãos, o segmento de fertilizantes não fica para trás, não apenas como origem diferente, mas também como alternativa modal ao transporte rodoviário. A empresa de logística VLI iniciou a operação da ferrovia que liga o porto do Itaqui, no Maranhão, ao estado do Tocantins. O corredor tem capacidade para transportar 1,5 milhão de t/ano de fertilizantes e deve atender à demanda de agricultores de Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Bahia, Piauí e Tocantins, além do Distrito Federal.

Por João Petrini

Frete de fertilizante x Frete de grãos (Paranaguá) R$/t

Frete de fertilizante x Frete de grãos (Santos) R$/t

Variação do frete de fertilizante (caminhão) Santos-Rondonópolis R$/t

Variação do frete de fertilizante (caminhão) Paranaguá-Rondonópolis 36-40t R$/t

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24/11/08

Talks to restart as port of Vancouver lockout drags

Talks to restart as port of Vancouver lockout drags

Calgary, 8 November (Argus) — A labour disruption at the port of Vancouver is now into its fifth day, but the employers association and the locked-out union are to meet this weekend to try to strike a deal and get commodities moving again. Workers belonging to the International Longshore and Warehouse Union (ILWU) Local 514 on Canada's west coast have been locked out by the BC Maritime Employers Association (BCMEA) since 4 November. This came hours after the union implemented an overtime ban for its 730 ship and dock foreman members. The two sides will meet on 9 November evening with the assistance of the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service (FMCS) in an effort to end a 19-month long dispute as they negotiate a new collective agreement to replace the one that expired in March 2023. The FMCS was already recruited for meetings in October, but that did not culminate in a deal. Natural resource-rich Canada is dependent on smooth operations at the port of Vancouver to reach international markets. The port is a major conduit for many dry and liquid bulk cargoes, including lumber, wood pellets and pulp, grains and agriculture products, caustic soda and sodium chlorate, sugar, coal, potash, sulphur, copper concentrates, zinc and lead concentrate, diesel and renewable diesel liquids and petroleum products. These account for about two-thirds of the movements through the port. Grain operations and the Westshore coal terminal are unaffected while most petroleum products also continue to move, the Port of Vancouver said on 7 November. As the parties head back to the bargaining table, the ILWU Local 514 meanwhile filed a complaint against the BCMEA on 7 November, alleging bargaining in bad faith, making threats, intimidation and coercion. "The BCMEA is trying to undermine the union by attempting to turn members against its democratically-elected leadership and bargaining committee, said ILWU Local 514 president Frank Morena on 7 November. "They know their bully tactics won't work with our members but their true goal is to bully the federal government into intervention." But that is just "another meritless claim," according to the BCMEA, who wants to restore supply chain operations as quickly as possible. The union said BC ports would still be operating if the BCMEA did not overreact with a lockout. "They are responsible for goods not being shipped to and from BC ports — not the union," Morena says. The ILWU Local 514 was found to have bargained in bad faith itself already, according to a decision by the Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) in October. Billions of dollars of trade are at risk with many goods and commodities at a standstill at Vancouver, which is Canada's busiest port. A 13-day strike by ILWU longshore workers in July 2023 disrupted C$10bn ($7.3bn) worth of goods and commodities, especially those reliant on container ships, before an agreement was met. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Spain eyes renewed Algerian urea trade


24/11/08
24/11/08

Spain eyes renewed Algerian urea trade

Amsterdam, 8 November (Argus) — The Algerian government appears set to resurrect its commercial agreement with Spain, having stopped trade in June 2022 following a political dispute, prompting the potential renewal of urea shipments between the countries. The return of trade between Algeria and Spain is increasingly likely, as tensions between the countries ease. Algeria announced an end to its side of a 2002 co-operation agreement with Spain in June 2022 following a dispute related to the Western Sahara. Details regarding the expected renewal of the agreement are scant so far, and Spanish importers are unclear as to how and when trade can return. The potential restart of urea shipments is only likely to emerge after the start of 2025, as suppliers will have to wait for fresh export licences with Spain listed as a permitted destination, traders said. Trading firms are typically granted annual export licences before the start of each year. Algeria was the largest supplier of urea to Spain in 2021, accounting for a third of the 1mn t imported that year. Egypt has since taken Algeria's market share, with its exports making up just over 40pc of Spanish urea imports so far this year. Algeria has 3.6mn t/yr of granular urea capacity, with AOA operating two 1.2mn t/yr plants and Sorfert the remaining 1.2mn t/yr facility. By Harry Minihan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

PKO insufficient for EU market under EUDR


24/11/08
24/11/08

PKO insufficient for EU market under EUDR

London, 8 November (Argus) — The European oleochemical market will have insufficient palm kernel oil (PKO) supply under the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), delegates heard today at the 20th Indonesian Palm Oil Conference and 2025 Price Outlook (IPOC 2024) in Nusa Dua, Bali. The cost of compliance with the EUDR will tighten PKO supply for EU markets as fewer palm oil producers are expected to comply with the regulation, further increasing prices into the EU bloc, according to Glenauk Economics managing director Julian McGill. Additionally, an excessive investment in fatty alcohols production in Indonesia will limit the country's exports, further tightening global supply, according to McGill. Indonesia currently consumes 70pc of its PKO production, McGill said. The EUDR requires mandatory due diligence from operators and trading firms selling and importing palm oil and its derivatives into the EU bloc, including PKO. Firms must ensure that products sold in the EU have not contributed to deforestation or forest degradation. Although the regulation is originally expected to take effect from 1 January 2025, the European Commission recently proposed an extra 12 months "phasing-in time" for implementation, which will be voted on by the EU parliament, probably on 14 November. But "the problem with the EUDR will not be solved by postponing the regulation, as European demand for PKO will remain excessive compared to that for palm oil," Julian McGill said during the conference. To fulfil European demand for PKO, producers will have to generate more EUDR compliant palm oil than actually needed, according to McGill. The average yield of PKO from fresh palm oil fruit bunches is 2-5pc. McGill also highlighted that another important problem to be solved for the EUDR to be correctly implemented is the complexity of traceability requirements for palm and palm kernel oil, because they are liquid goods, unlike wood, coffee and cocoa beans. By Carolina A. Palma Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Nutrien lowers 2024 nitrogen sales guidance


24/11/07
24/11/07

Nutrien lowers 2024 nitrogen sales guidance

Houston, 7 November (Argus) — Major fertilizer producer Nutrien lowered its 2024 nitrogen sales guidance following extended turnarounds and unplanned outages in the third quarter. Nutrien reduced its expected sales of nitrogen products in 2024 by 200,000 metric tonnes (t) to 10.6mn t, the company said in its third quarter earnings report. Nutrien's Port Saskatchewan facility in Alberta suffered from a power outage during the period causing unexpected downtime, Nutrien said. The producer's Augusta, Georgia , and Geismar, Louisiana , plants experienced brief outages following hurricanes in the US Gulf coast in September. Nutrien's Trinidad nitrogen facility wrapped up a turnaround in the third quarter, Nutrien said. And the producer's Lima, Ohio, plant also underwent a turnaround from August into September, according to sources. Third quarter nitrogen sales increased by 2.8pc from a year ago to 2.45mn t despite outages at its plants. But Nutrien estimated US nitrogen inventories to be "well-below average levels" at the end of the third quarter, which the company expects to support demand in the coming months. Nitrogen markets have been supported by tightness in global supplies, with the company pointing towards supply disruptions, delays of new capacity, and rising European natural gas prices. China's restrictions on urea exports and production challenges elsewhere have firmed nitrogen markets as well, Nutrien said. On the demand side, urea consumption in China has grown 14pc annually, bringing consumption there to 60mn t as the government focuses on domestic agricultural production, Nutrien said. In the US, crop margins have declined compared to recent years on lower crop prices and higher costs, but below-normal grain stocks globally should support US agricultural markets, Nutrien said. The company said it expects strong fall nitrogen demand following significant nutrient depletion and an early harvest. By Calder Jett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indian importers buy 110,000t of Saudi DAP


24/11/07
24/11/07

Indian importers buy 110,000t of Saudi DAP

London, 7 November (Argus) — Saudi Arabian fertilizer producer Ma'aden has sold a combined 110,000t of DAP to three Indian importers — including IPL — at around $635/t cfr. The product will be shipped this month. The price nets back to the low-to-mid-$620s/t fob Ras Al-Khair. Ma'aden's previous DAP sale to India was in mid-October, in which IPL bought 40,000t of the product at around $643/t cfr for October loading. By Adrien Seewald Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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