Baixa liquidez de adubos pode causar gargalo logístico

: Agriculture, Fertilizers
23/06/30

A baixa liquidez no mercado brasileiro de fertilizantes tem deixado vários setores preocupados com a possibilidade de gargalos logísticos quando os produtos armazenados nos portos forem transportados.

A comercialização de soja e milho estão abaixo dos níveis do ano anterior devido aos preços mais baixos. Isso contribui para a compra mais lenta de insumos para a safra de soja de 2023-24, mesmo com as taxas de relação de troca em níveis mais favoráveis para os agricultores. As entregas de fertilizantes ao mercado têm sido mais lentas desde o início do ano. De acordo com dados da Associação Nacional para Difusão de Fertilizantes (Anda), 12 milhões de t foram entregues entre janeiro e março, queda de 3,7pc em comparação com o mesmo período de 2022.

A situação também é afetada pelo cancelamento de contratos de compra de fertilizantes. Alguns agricultores estão se recusando a receber adubos cujos contratos foram assinados em períodos anteriores e a preços mais altos.

Nesse caso, a queda no frete rodoviário de fertilizantes é ainda mais acentuada neste ano, devido à menor demanda pelo serviço de transporte até o momento. Em junho de 2022, o frete na rota Paranaguá-Rondonópolis atingiu um preço médio de R$ 243/t, queda de 21pc em relação a janeiro de 2022, quando o frete atingiu um dos níveis mais altos do ano. Em junho de 2023, o frete na mesma rota foi de R$ 201/t, queda de 35pc em relação a janeiro.

Na rota Santos/Cubatão-Rondonópolis, a taxa média de frete em junho de 2022 atingiu R$ 253/t, queda de 16,2pc em relação a janeiro. Em junho de 2023, o frete médio foi de R$ 243/t, queda de 22pc em relação a janeiro.

Portanto, existe a preocupação de que as entregas restantes de fertilizantes armazenados também sejam mais lentas, especialmente de algumas origens, pois há o risco de enfrentar longas filas nos portos brasileiros, mesmo com a expectativa de menores importações de fertilizantes em 2023.

As importações de fertilizantes do Brasil neste ano estão atrasadas em relação ao ano passado. De acordo com os dados do Global Trade Tracker (GTT), considerando os principais tipos de fertilizantes e matérias-primas, 15,6 milhões de t foram importadas entre janeiro e maio de 2023, queda de 8pc em comparação com o mesmo período do ano passado. Um grande volume foi importado em 2022 nesse período, devido às preocupações sobre o conflito entre Rússia e Ucrânia.

No entanto, os estoques de fertilizantes são altos, o que contribui para uma maior oferta no mercado doméstico. De acordo com dados da Anda, no fim de 2022 os estoques estavam em 9,2 milhões de t, aumento de 19,1pc em relação aos 7,7 milhões de t mantidos no fim de 2021. Portanto, há um volume significativo a ser entregue aos agricultores.

Isso também pode aumentar os custos logísticos, já que, com a maior demanda por transporte, os fretes de fertilizantes com origem nos principais portos do país devem aumentar em meio à concorrência por veículos disponíveis.

Nessa equação logística para o transporte rodoviário de fertilizantes, a colheita da segunda safra de milho de 2022-23 pode ajudar a baratear o frete de fertilizantes devido às condições de frete-retorno. Quando os volumes de fertilizantes chegam ao seu destino, se houver cargas de grãos disponíveis para transporte, motoristas podem aceitar um frete melhor.

Porém, com a queda nas cotações e nos prêmios de exportação, que caíram mais intensamente desde março, a tendência é que agricultores optem por manter grãos e oleaginosas armazenados, aguardando preços mais altos para o segundo semestre. Há também um volume significativo de soja aguardando negociação, o que impacta as condições de frete-retorno de fertilizantes. Nesse caso, o frete de fertilizantes acaba sendo mais caro, já que a pior situação para os caminhoneiros é rodar sem carga na estrada, uma vez que isso deprecia os veículos e os motoristas não recebem nada.

Novas possibilidades no Arco Norte

O crescimento da importância dos portos do Arco Norte na exportação de grãos já é uma realidade, pois se trata de uma via relevante para as exportações brasileiras.

Essa região vem ganhando mais atenção de agricultores, especialmente do estado de Mato Grosso, o maior produtor de soja do país. Também está se tornando um ponto logístico para a movimentação de combustíveis da região Centro-Norte.

Essas novas condições contribuem para aliviar a fila de navios e o fluxo de caminhões que normalmente se concentram principalmente nos portos de Santos e Paranaguá. O porto brasileiro de Vila do Conde, no Pará, foi recentemente liberado para exportar milho para o mercado chinês.

Com o aumento da relevância dos grãos, o segmento de fertilizantes não fica para trás, não apenas como origem diferente, mas também como alternativa modal ao transporte rodoviário. A empresa de logística VLI iniciou a operação da ferrovia que liga o porto do Itaqui, no Maranhão, ao estado do Tocantins. O corredor tem capacidade para transportar 1,5 milhão de t/ano de fertilizantes e deve atender à demanda de agricultores de Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Bahia, Piauí e Tocantins, além do Distrito Federal.

Por João Petrini

Frete de fertilizante x Frete de grãos (Paranaguá) R$/t

Frete de fertilizante x Frete de grãos (Santos) R$/t

Variação do frete de fertilizante (caminhão) Santos-Rondonópolis R$/t

Variação do frete de fertilizante (caminhão) Paranaguá-Rondonópolis 36-40t R$/t

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

25/06/20

Urea prices surge in Australia, prompt supply limited

Sydney, 20 June (Argus) — Domestic urea prices in Australia have surged on the back of rising international fob prices because of ongoing hostilities in the Middle East, and prompt supply has tightened on increased demand. Israel's attack on Iran in the early hours of 13 June and the further escalation of tensions has caused international urea prices to surge on tightened supply as Egyptian output was halted on 13 June and Iranian urea production went off line on 18 June because Israeli gas flows have stopped. Saudi Arabian fertilizer producer Sabic sold 45,000t of granular urea at $450/t fob on 17 June, a sharp rise from $402/t fob in a deal four days earlier. Domestic urea prices in Australia rose throughout the week to 20 June almost as fast as international prices as suppliers raised their offers on a day-by-day basis. Retailers that previously hesitated to buy from importers because of weak domestic demand rushed into the market to procure supplies on fears of further price rises. Offers started the week at around A$775/t ($503/t) fca Geelong on 16 June, increasing to A$790-800/t on 17 June. Cargoes were reportedly sold as high as A$865/t as buyers rushed into the market. Two suppliers reportedly offered urea out of Geelong at A$900/t late on 18 June, but buyers retreated at that level. Weekly average domestic granular urea prices were assessed much higher on the week at a midpoint of A$865/t fca Geelong in the week to 20 June, up from A$745-750/t a week earlier ( see graph ). Urea stocks high, prompt supply limited Healthy stocks and underwhelming domestic consumption from growers owing to unfavourable weather conditions had limited demand for urea so far in 2025, which in turn buoyed stocks and prompted suppliers to lower prices from mid-April until hostilities broke out in the Middle East. Australia imported 1.26mn t of urea in the first four months of the year, the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics show. Urea imports reached an estimated 601,000t in May and are expected to decrease to 508,000t in June, according to vessel-tracking data from trade analytics platform Kpler. This suggests Australia's urea imports could reach 2.37mn t in January-June, down from 2.49mn t in the first half of 2024. But Australian urea stocks are still likely to be higher at the end of June 2025 compared with the same month a year earlier, according to Argus estimates. Favourable weather conditions for urea utilisation early in 2024 reduced urea stocks in the country last year. Urea stocks in Australia are healthy and suppliers started selling cargoes in May for delivery in 1-3 months' time because of sluggish local demand. This has led to at least one supplier running out of supply for prompt sale and delivery after buyers entered the market this week. The tight supply for prompt delivery of urea likely supported the surge in domestic urea prices over the past week. By Tom Woodlock Price of granular urea fca Geelong (A$/t) Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil central bank raises target rate to 15pc

25/06/18

Brazil central bank raises target rate to 15pc

Sao Paulo, 18 June (Argus) — Brazil's central bank today raised its target interest rate by 0.25 of a percentage point to 15pc, the highest level since July 2006, citing a still "adverse and uncertain" global economic scenario. That is the seventh consecutive hike from a cyclical low of 10.5pc at the end of September last year. The bank had last increased the rate by 0.5 of a percentage point in May . "The [economic] scenario continues to require caution on the part of emerging countries in an environment of heightened geopolitical tension," the bank said, citing the US' "uncertain economic policies." The bank also said it increased the interest rate because Brazil's inflation remains above the ceiling of 3pc with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points above or below. Annual inflation eased to 5.32pc in May . Central bank forecasts for 2025 and 2026 inflation remain at 5.2pc and 4.5pc, respectively, it said. "Inflation risks, both upside and downside, remain higher than usual," the bank said By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Poland wraps up CBAM changes with European Parliament

25/06/18

Poland wraps up CBAM changes with European Parliament

Brussels, 18 June (Argus) — Poland has concluded negotiations on behalf of EU member states with the European Parliament for a revised carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), ahead of handing over the bloc's six-month rotating presidency to Denmark at the end of June. But Warsaw will not lead discussions on the EU's emissions cut target for 2040 and the bloc's updated nationally determined contribution (NDC) to the Paris climate agreement. Leading negotiations for EU states with parliament, Poland's deputy climate minister Krzysztof Bolesta said the revised CBAM would exempt 90pc of originally covered EU companies from reporting obligations, while 99pc of emissions embedded in imported products would remain covered. The agreement on CBAM now has to be formally approved by parliament and EU ministers. Once published in the bloc's official journal, the revised CBAM text will exempt importers that do not exceed a new single mass-based threshold of 50 t/yr of imported goods. Bolesta admitted that progress has been held up on concluding the EU's NDC during Warsaw's presidency of EU ministerial meetings. CBAM was also listed by Bolesta as one of the points for flexibility in discussions on the 2040 climate target, alongside carbon credits under Article 6 of the Paris agreement, additional funding and flexibility between climate sub-targets. At a meeting of environment ministers yesterday, Bolesta indicated that most states still favour the European Commission linking its submission of an EU NDC to the UN — which includes a 2035 emissions cut target — with the bloc's planned 2 July proposal for a 2040 EU climate target. The CBAM yesterday contributed to delays in technical negotiations held in Bonn, Germany, for the UN Cop 30 climate conference in Brazil. The Like-Minded Group of Developing Countries, including countries such as Bolivia, China, Saudi Arabia, Cuba and Vietnam, had urged the need to address concerns "with climate change-related trade-restrictive unilateral measures". Despite "very, very divergent views", EU member states agree that it "is absolutely urgent to come up with an NDC before the end of September", Bolesta said. The Polish presidency of the EU, chairing climate ministers' meetings, has advanced NDC work as much as possible in the absence of the commission's proposal to revise the bloc's climate law. "We really have only a couple of months to come up with something. What lacks in the NDC draft is now the headline target," Bolesta said. Countries have not yet discussed the quality of Article 6 offsets, Bolesta added. "Everyone in the room realises that we need to be very stringent on what kind of offset will be let into the system," he said. EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstra is "cautiously optimistic" that a landing ground can be found on the 2040 climate target. He called for more assertive climate diplomacy, as a large part of the problem lies outside Europe. For China, Hoekstra noted unfair trade practices and "serious" concerns about plans to build additional coal-fired plants. "It's a mixed bag. And we invite them to step up their ambition," he said. By Dafydd ab Iago Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

CME Black Sea Wheat Argus futures trade for September

25/06/18

CME Black Sea Wheat Argus futures trade for September

Paris, 18 June (Argus) — Black Sea CVB Wheat (Argus) futures have traded on the CBOT exchange for the first time since they were launched by CME on 2 June . Two counterparties agreed on 18 June to trade 200 lots (10,000t) on the September 2025 futures contract at $231/t. Another 200 lots traded on the same futures contract at $233/t later in the day. The contract's financial settlement price will be equal to the arithmetic average of the 12.5pc Romania-Bulgaria fob CVB price published in the Argus AgriMarkets report from 1-15 September. The trades are the first of their kind since CBOT suspended trading and clearing of all Black Sea futures and options in August 2023. The launch of the new futures allows market participants to hedge or gain exposure to the world's largest wheat export market. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

India buys 145,000t of DAP at $775-781.50/t cfr

25/06/18

India buys 145,000t of DAP at $775-781.50/t cfr

London, 18 June (Argus) — Three Indian importers have bought a combined 145,000t of DAP at prices in a range of $775-781.50/t cfr. NFL bought 45,000t of DAP from a trading firm at $781.50/t cfr in its tender that closed on 13 June. The tender had sought black, brown or neutral-coloured DAP for shipment from the loading port by 30 June from memorandum of understanding (MOU) suppliers. The origin of the cargo sold is not yet confirmed. Two fellow Indian importers have each bought 50,000t of DAP at $775/t cfr for shipment in July from Saudi Arabian producer Ma'aden. The price for the Saudi Arabian DAP is in line with sales totalling 110,000t of DAP at $774.93-775/t cfr earlier this week. It would net back to the low-mid $760s/t fob. By Tom Hampson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more