Generic Hero BannerGeneric Hero Banner
Latest market news

US shale oil output falls as drilling activity slumps

  • : Crude oil
  • 23/07/24

US shale oil output is expected to fall next month as drilling and completion activity slows and legacy output declines exceed new well production.

Oil production in the seven major shale formations covered by the EIA's monthly Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) is forecast to fall by 18,000 b/d in August — the first drop since December, when bad weather disrupted operations. DPR-7 output growth is expected to slow to just below 6,000 b/d this month as fewer new wells are completed, while legacy declines continue to rise. Output growth has slowed month on month since the start of this year, as drilling and completion activity in the shale sector slumped owing to rising costs, labour shortages and lower oil and gas prices.

US oil rig counts have fallen again, dropping by 15 since mid-June to 537 by mid-July — the lowest count since April 2022, according to upstream service firm Baker Hughes (see graph). Fewer new wells are being drilled and firms are drawing on their inventory of drilled-but-uncompleted (DUC) wells to help sustain output. Only 933 wells were drilled in June in the DPR-7 regions — 7pc down on the end of last year. But 957 new wells were completed as 24 DUC wells were also deployed to bring new production on line last month. And DPR-7 DUC wells are at their lowest in nine years (see graph).

The business activity index for the oil and gas sector in Texas, northern Louisiana and southern New Mexico stalled in the second quarter, according to the Dallas Fed's quarterly energy survey. Oil and natural production growth slowed as firms reported rising costs for a 10th consecutive quarter and oil service firms indicated worsening conditions. Around 71pc of oil and gas firms expect that input costs — excluding labour — will be higher at the end of 2023 than at the end of 2022. "Expenses for everything have increased dramatically," one respondent says. "I would drill if costs were not so high."

Diverging expectations

But the survey also reveals divergent expectations between large and small firms. Nearly half of larger firms producing 10,000 b/d or more expect drilling and completion costs to be lower at the end of this year than at the end of 2022, while two-thirds of smaller firms producing less than 10,000 b/d expect costs to be higher. Bigger firms typically lock in costs in advance, buying steel and other inputs ahead and agreeing term contracts with service companies, while smaller firms are more exposed to spot pricing. "Wells that are being completed today have been drilled a few months back under a higher service price environment, so things are, I think, softening," EOG Resources chief executive Ezra Yacob says.

Slowing activity in the sector means that new-well production no longer offsets legacy declines from existing wells, and output will inevitably go into reverse. Legacy oil declines in the DPR-7 regions are expected to rise again to 611,000 b/d (6.5pc of total output), but new-well production is dropping as fewer wells are completed (see graph). DPR-7 well completions were 11pc down in June, compared with the end of last year, and look unlikely to recover soon as firms are cutting back completions. The number of "frac spreads" — completion crews — active in the US remains on a downward trend, data from industry monitor Primary Vision show.

EIA forecasts of US lower-48 onshore oil production, which is driven by shale oil, show output falling slowly this summer from a peak of 10.45mn b/d in April and not recovering to that level before May next year. Overall output is expected to rise by 600,000 b/d year on year for 2022-23, but entry-to-exit growth this year is only 390,000 b/d.

DPR-7 shale oil production drivers

Well completions and legacy declines

Rigs & frac spreads

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

25/06/24

Cheaper power key to reach UK’s climate targets

Cheaper power key to reach UK’s climate targets

Edinburgh, 24 June (Argus) — The UK's climate plan credibility has improved slightly but no progress has been made to make electricity cheaper, which is key to hit the country's emissions targets, independent advisory body Climate Change Committee (CCC) said in its progress report. The report assesses the UK's progress towards its net zero goals under the current government, which took power in July 2024. The CCC found the UK's 2050 target remains reachable but climate action needs to accelerate, even though policies to cut greenhouse gas emissions have improved. Only half of the 16 key indicators assessed by the CCC, with a relevant benchmark or target, are on track — including offshore and onshore wind operational capacity, sustainable aviation fuel, electric vehicle (EV) charging points and distances travelled by car. EV car sales, heat pump installations, woodland creation and peatland restoration are "slightly off track", while the ratio of electricity to gas prices for households and industries is "significantly off track", the CCC said. The committee noted no progress has been made on actions to lower the cost of power. The government is planning to consult on this "in due course", but CCC urged for actions and timelines. The CCC has identified "ten priority actions" for the year ahead, with cutting the cost of electricity for households and businesses again at the top. Cheaper power will support industrial electrification and "speed up the uptake of clean electric technologies, such as heat pumps and electric vehicles," the CCC said. The transition to renewables will eventually reduce the country's reliance on volatile wholesale gas prices, which are the main driver of electricity prices, it said. "But the government can take immediate action to accelerate this by moving policy costs associated with past schemes, and those that are not directly related to the cost of electricity generation, off electricity bills," the CCC said. Removing electricity policy costs — levied on the unit price of electricity at 20 times the rate of gas — would reduce annual electricity bills by £190 ($258) for a typical household with a gas boiler and by £490 for a typical household with a heat pump, CCC found. "This would bring UK prices into the range of other countries who are ahead on heat pump roll-out," it said. The CCC report assessed policy development from July 2024 to 23 May 2025, so does not take into account policies announced in the recent spending review nor the British Industrial Competitiveness Scheme intended to reduce electricity costs by up to £40/MWh for more than 7,000 electricity-intensive businesses. UK emissions reached 413.7mn t of CO2 equivalent (CO2e) in 2024, including its share of international aviation and shipping, down by 50pc from 1990 and by 2.5pc from 2023, according to the CCC. The year-on-year reductions come mainly from the electricity supply — declining gas generation — and the industry sector. The government will increasingly need to focus on transport, building, agriculture and aviation to reach its emission reduction targets, the CCC said. The report points to encouraging trends in EVs and in heat pump installations, which grew by 56pc on the year, and in woodland creations, but it reiterated action on these fronts must accelerate. Although much of the progress stems from policies set by previous government, the CCC said "bold policies" introduced this year are promising, such as removing planning barriers on renewable deployment and the reinstatement of the 2030 phase-out date for gasoline and diesel vehicles. The market share of new EVs increased on the year in 2024, by nearly 20pc. But CCC noted aviation sector emissions are increasing. The share of sustainable aviation fuel increased to 2.1pc last year from 0.7pc in 2023, but a lot more is required to reach the 10pc SAF mandate by 2030. By Caroline Varin Distribution of past emissions reductions and future emissions savings by sector.pdf Distribution of past emissions reductions and future emissions savings by sector Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump slams Israel and Iran over ceasefire breach


25/06/24
25/06/24

Trump slams Israel and Iran over ceasefire breach

Dubai, 24 June (Argus) — US president Donald Trump today criticised both Israel and Iran over what he said were violations of a ceasefire agreement he helped broker to end a 12-day conflict between the two countries. "We basically have two countries that have been fighting for so long and so hard that they don't know what the [expletive deleted] they're doing," Trump told reporters as he left the White House for the Nato summit in The Hague. Trump said Iran fired a missile at Israel after the ceasefire deadline had passed, and that it missed its target. "Now Israel is going out," he said, adding that he was also unhappy with Israel's response. "I didn't like the fact that Israel unloaded right after we made the deal. They didn't have to unload, and I didn't like the fact that the retaliation was very strong," he said. Trump had announced that the ceasefire would begin around midnight ET on 24 June, ending nearly two weeks of hostilities that included US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend of 21-22 June. Earlier today, Israel accused Iran of firing missiles after the ceasefire took effect and vowed to retaliate. Iran's military denied the claim, according to Iranian state media. Trump then took to his Truth Social platform to urge Israel not to respond. "DO NOT DROP THOSE BOMBS. IF YOU DO IT IS A MAJOR VIOLATION. BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!" He later posted that Israel would not attack Iran. "All planes will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly ‘Plane Wave' to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect!" he said. Trump also commented on the US strikes against Iran's nuclear infrastructure over the weekend. "I think it's been completely demolished. I think the reason we're here is because those pilots, those B-2 pilots, did an unbelievable job," he said. The extent of the damage has not been independently verified. Trump added that Iran would not be able to rebuild its Fordow nuclear facility — the country's main site for enriching uranium to 60pc. "Iran will never rebuild its nuclear… From there? Absolutely not. That place is under rock. That place is demolished," he said. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Israel and Iran agree to ceasefire: Trump


25/06/23
25/06/23

Israel and Iran agree to ceasefire: Trump

Houston, 23 June (Argus) — Israel and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire to begin around midnight ET, President Donald Trump said in a social media post late on Monday, ending 12 days of attacks that included US strikes on Iran over the weekend. Iran will start the ceasefire first, according to Trump, and Israel will follow suit 12 hours later. The ceasefire will not begin until the two countries have completed ongoing military operations. "During each CEASEFIRE, the other side will remain PEACEFUL and RESPECTFUL," Trump wrote on social media. ""On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called, ‘THE 12 DAY WAR.'" The fighting appeared headed for escalation in recent days, with the US bombing nuclear sites in Iran over the weekend, and Iran launching missiles at a US military base in Qatar Monday in retaliation. But Iran gave advanced warning of the missiles in what appears to have been an effort to de-escalate the conflict. WTI crude futures closed down by 7pc on Monday , as markets took the tepid Iranian response as a sign Iran did not plan to escalate the conflict. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Iran fires missiles at US military base in Qatar


25/06/23
25/06/23

Iran fires missiles at US military base in Qatar

London, 23 June (Argus) — Iran today fired missiles at a US base in Qatar in retaliation for the weekend attack on its nuclear facilities. The Iranian military said the US' Al-Udeid base was its target. The Qatari government said it intercepted the missiles and there were no deaths or injuries. Tensions in the region have been stretched since the US bombed Iranian nuclear facilities at the weekend. US president Donald Trump today again expressed a desire for regime change in Tehran, which in turn said US military interests were now legitimate targets. Earlier, Qatar closed its airspace and the US and UK embassies there issued safety warnings to their citizens, suggesting this Iranian attack was flagged and expected. The price of Ice Brent crude fell by as much as 4.5pc in the wake of the Iranian attack to an intraday low of $72.48/bl, having hit a five-month high of $81.40/bl earlier in the day. The Iranian move echoes its attacks on US military targets in Iraq after the US' killing of senior Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani in January 2020. Perhaps mindful of this, foreign firms operating in Iraq today started removing some employees from the country. Regional airlines began cancelling and rerouting flights across the Middle East, with flight tracking showing almost no flights in the air above the Mideast Gulf. By Ben Winkley Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump escalates pressure to keep oil prices down


25/06/23
25/06/23

Trump escalates pressure to keep oil prices down

Washington, 23 June (Argus) — President Donald Trump is pressing domestic oil producers to increase drilling as he works to contain the energy market fallout from a potential escalation in hostilities following US airstrikes on nuclear sites in Iran. Trump said today he was monitoring how the oil industry is responding to the conflict, which depending on Iran's response could disrupt 17mn b/d of crude and refined products that are shipped through the strait of Hormuz. The US carried out air strikes on Iran's Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites early on 22 June local time. Brent crude futures hit a five-month high above $80/bl earlier Monday but had fallen to $73.81/bl as of 1:18 pm ET, after Iran said it had launched an attack on a US military base in Qatar. "EVERYONE, KEEP OIL PRICES DOWN. I'M WATCHING! YOU'RE PLAYING RIGHT INTO THE HANDS OF THE ENEMY. DON'T DO IT!" Trump wrote Monday morning in a post on his social media website Truth Social. Trump followed up by directing the US Department of Energy (DOE) to "DRILL, BABY, DRILL!! And I mean NOW!!!" US energy secretary Chris Wright, in a social media post responding to Trump's instructions, said "we're on it" but did not say what actions he would take. DOE does not have a formal oversight or regulatory role related to oil and natural gas production, although it does manage the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). The White House, asked for comment, said Trump was urging his administration to support drilling to keep energy prices low. Since Trump's first day in office, he has "championed domestic energy production to strengthen American economic security", the White House said. DOE did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Trump has sought to increase US oil production by easing regulations, expediting environmental reviews and expanding leasing, but it could take years for those actions to translate into higher production. In the near-term, Trump's most potent tool to reduce prices would be ordering a release of oil from the SPR, which holds 402.5mn bl of crude in four storage sites in Louisiana and Texas. Trump and many other Republican lawmakers were critical of former president Joe Biden for ordering the emergency release of 180mn bl of crude from the SPR in 2022 in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Trump has said he wants to refill the SPR to its full capacity of 714mn bl. The White House said Monday it is not yet seeing interruptions to oil flows, but that the "many tools" available to the president and his "commitment to peace through strength" should "all be reassuring to the market". By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Generic Hero Banner

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more