25/12/24
Viewpoint: US steel tariffs cause scrap supply glut
Pittsburgh, 24 December (Argus) — North American ferrous scrap dealers and
exporters will likely continue flooding the US market in 2026 because the
tariff-protected US steel industry is on track to outcompete international
markets for scrap. The magnetic pull of the US steel market this year attracted
greater volumes of ferrous scrap deliveries from domestic and international
shippers alike, in a trend that could keep bolstering US scrap supply and
weighing on prices in 2026. "The tariffs are protecting US steel and aluminum
industries and therefore domestic demand for scrap," said Stephen Mikkelsen,
chief executive of global metals recycler Sims Metal during an August earnings
call. "This has resulted in premiums often emerging for domestic scrap sales in
the US." President Donald Trump's 50pc tariffs on imported steel have helped
ramp up US steel mills' operating rates. The import tax has also guarded the US
market from an oversupply of Chinese steel in the global marketplace. That
dynamic has encouraged dealers to sell ferrous scrap — which does not face a
tariff — increasingly to US steel mills rather than the seaborne market. "We see
this continuing in fiscal year 2026. In our view, production changes will take
time to play out, and China will continue to dampen steel prices, and therefore,
ferrous scrap prices outside the US," Mikkelsen added. The recent divergence of
US and Turkish steel prices signals that US exporters could continue to prefer
selling into the domestic market in the first quarter. US flat and long steel
prices have continued to climb in December. Turkish rebar has decreased to
$559/t ex-works, an $18.50/t decrease since 4 December. US ferrous scrap market
participants expect prices to edge up in January based on slower supply flows in
the winter season. But the long-term trend of steel tariffs fueling higher
ferrous scrap supply in the US will likely persist in 2026 and keep preventing
major price increases. Trump has shown no interest in nixing the steel tariffs,
likely indicating that the US market will continue attracting similar or larger
volumes of scrap from domestic and international sources in 2026. The first of
two price increases scrap dealers got this year came when winter weather curbed
supply flows nine months ago. The second came this month under the same
circumstance. Sellers craved stronger demand from US steel mills to lift markets
in early 2025. They got their wish when Trump doubled US steel tariffs to 50pc
in June. US steel mill utilization rates jumped by 4pc to higher than 79pc in
the summer. The stronger run rates equated to hundreds of thousands of metric
tonnes (t) of additional monthly demand for scrap. US exporters shift sales to
domestic mills US exporters diverted scrap sales — particularly shredded scrap —
to US steel mills to help fill that extra demand. US scrap exports are on track
to fall by 15pc to 11.7mn t this year, the lowest sum since 2016, according to
annualized US customs data pending the releases for the final three months of
the year, which were delayed by the federal government shutdown. US scrap
imports have also risen, particularly from Mexico and Canada, because US steel
tariffs have lessened demand for scrap in those countries. US ferrous scrap
import volumes are on course to total 4.1mn t this year, a 10pc increase from
2024. The extra scrap supply in the US has prevented scrap prices from raising
proportionally with steel. #1 busheling, a key feedstock for hot-rolled coil,
averaged $390/gross ton (gt) this month, a 4pc increase from a year earlier. But
US hot-rolled coil was $922/short ton (st) this week, a 38pc uptick during that
time. Shredded scrap, a major part of melt mixes for rebar, was $378/gt on
average in December, up by 5pc from a year earlier. Rebar rose by 23pc to
$915/st in the past year. By James Marshall US ferrous scrap and iron metallic
import/export swings t 2025 2024 ± ±% Imports Ferrous scrap 4,109,633 3,750,091
359,542 9.6 Pig iron 5,443,307 4,713,161 730,146 15.5 DRI/HBI 1,562,073
1,525,159 36,914 2.4 Exports Ferrous scrap 11,666,187 13,876,316 -2,210,129
-15.9 Net change in iron units in US 3,336,731 US customs data aggregated by
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