Sustainable, conventional bunkers seen at parity by ’35

: Biofuels, E-fuels, Emissions, Fertilizers, Hydrogen, Natural gas, Oil products, Petrochemicals
24/03/21

Sustainable marine fuels could reach cost parity with fossil fuels in Europe as early as 2035 with the help of government policies such as carbon taxes and emissions limits, Finnish engine manufacturer Wartsila said in a report.

EU initiatives that require ship owners to pay for their CO2-equivalent emissions and that increase demand for low-carbon fuels will more than double the cost of conventional marine fuels by 2030 and close the price gap with sustainable fuels by 2035, the report says.

Wartsila forecasts LNG to cost 0.8-1.4 times the price of very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) in 2035, methanol's cost to be 0.8-1.6 times the price VLSFO, ammonia to be 0.7-1.2 times, liquid hydrogen to be 1.2-1.5 times, compressed hydrogen to be 0.6-1.0 times and marine batteries to be 0.8-2.0 times.

Reducing vessel speeds by 30pc and implementing all available energy efficiency measures could reduce the sector's energy demand by 15-27pc. "That is a good start, but shipping cannot fully decarbonise without sustainable fuels," according to the report. Marine shipping is facing competition for sustainable fuels from other sectors such as aviation, industry and trucking. Collaboration with the other sectors will boost supplies for all, Wartsila said.

Biofuels, including diesel-like fuels, biomethanol, biomethane and bioethanol, are the first alternative fuels available, with large growth predicted in the 2030s. Fossil fuels with carbon emissions captured and stored will play a larger role in the 2040s, according to the report. Synthetic fuels, such as clean hydrogen made with electrolysis using renewable electricity, will become more widely available in the late 2030s or early 2040s. Wartsila does not expect one fuel to dominate marine demand. Instead, it sees a mix of fuels catering to different ship owner's requirements.

Northwest Europe LNG was selling at 0.8 times the price of VLSFO on average from 1-21 March, Argus assessments showed (see chart). Methanol and B30 bio-bunker comprised of advanced fatty acid methyl ester (Fame) were priced at 1.3 times the price of VLSFO in northwest Europe during the same period. Blue ammonia, green ammonia, green hydrogen and bio-methanol were pegged at 2.1-4.8 times the price of VLSFO.

By Stefka Wechsler

Europe low-carbon fuels, 1-21 March avg

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25/12/18

Energy Transfer halts plans for Lake Charles LNG

Houston, 18 December (Argus) — US midstream firm Energy Transfer is suspending development of its planned 16.5mn t/yr (2.2 Bcf/d) Lake Charles LNG export terminal in Louisiana to focus on natural gas pipeline expansions, the company said today. The pivot allows the company to reallocate capital to gas pipeline projects that provide "superior risk/return profiles", Energy Transfer said. The company separately said it will increase the capacity of its planned Desert Southwest expansion of the Transwestern pipeline, allowing it to move more gas from west Texas' Permian basin to the southwestern US. The decision to scrap Lake Charles LNG follows a month of dissonance from company executives about moving forward with the facility. Energy Transfer co-chief executive Mackie McCrea told investors in early November that the company would not be able to reach a final investment decision (FID) until it sold off 80pc of equity shares in the project. But Amy Chen Davis, vice president of Lake Charles LNG, told an industry event on 10 December that the company was in talks with potential partners and would reach a final decision in early 2026. The company said earlier this year it planned an FID by the end of 2025. The midstream firm has sought for years to convert the existing Lake Charles import facility into an export terminal. Shell signed on with a 50pc stake in 2019 but pulled out the following year as part of cost-cutting measures during the Covid-19 pandemic. McCrea had signaled to investors that the company was being cautious with entering the LNG export industry. "When you're chasing billions of dollars in projects, several of which we've already announced, we've got to be careful stepping out on something like this," McCrea said on 5 November. "We're not an LNG company like we compete with. We're a pipeline company that has a regas facility converting part of it to LNG." Investor MidOcean Energy had signed a preliminary agreement to fund 30pc of Lake Charles LNG's construction costs in exchange for 30pc of offtake, but the firms never finalized the deal. Suspension of the project also may set back the efforts of Saudi Aramco, which holds a 49pc stake in MidOcean, to develop an LNG portfolio. MidOcean has a share in Peru's 4.45mn t/yr Pampa Melchorita LNG export plant and the Shell-led 14mn t/yr LNG Canada export terminal in British Columbia. Pipeline project in focus Meanwhile, Energy Transfer said it will upsize capacity on the Desert Southwest expansion. The company said it will increase the expansion's capacity by 800mn cf/d to 2.3 Bcf/d to satisfy additional demand in the southwestern US. Energy Transfer reached an FID on Desert Southwest in August. The expansion is one of several projects working to increase gas transportation capacity out of the Permian, where a steady increase in crude-driven activity — and commensurate rise in associated gas output — has outpaced the increase in gas takeaway capacity. This has created a local gas supply glut and some of the lowest gas prices in the US. By Tray Swanson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US House passes bill to expedite permitting

25/12/18

US House passes bill to expedite permitting

Washington, 18 December (Argus) — The US House of Representatives on Thursday approved a bill designed to fast-track permitting for energy projects and reduce related litigation risks. But a last-minute change Republicans made to exclude some offshore wind and solar projects led some Democrats and a major clean energy group to withdraw support, complicating the bill's chances of passage in the Senate. The Republican-controlled House voted 221-196 to pass the SPEED Act, with 11 Democrats crossing the aisle to vote for what would be the most significant changes to federal permitting in years. The bill will now advance to the US Senate, where proponents will likely need to agree to make significant changes if they hope to pick up the votes of at least seven Democrats to avoid a filibuster. The bill "finally brings common sense by cutting red tape that dramatically increases the cost and, in some cases, just makes it economically unfeasible to do projects", House Republican majority leader Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana) said. The SPEED Act focuses on revising project reviews under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), which is a source of delay and litigation risk for pipelines and renewable projects alike. The bill would require federal agencies to narrow those reviews and uphold those decisions even if federal courts find them to be inadequate. The bill would also provide permit "certainty" by limiting the government's ability to rescind prior approvals, averting a repeat of events like the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline. "We applaud the House for advancing the SPEED Act, a bipartisan, commonsense step toward fixing a federal permitting system that's long been broken," oil industry group the American Petroleum Institute said. Republican leaders were hoping 30-40 Democrats would join them to support the SPEED Act. The bill had broad bipartisan support when it was drafted because of provisions meant to prevent permitting delays that have plagued both oil and gas pipelines and renewable energy development. But Republican leaders, to satisfy far-right conservatives, made a change to the bill earlier this week that would prevent its expedited permitting procedures from benefiting any project that Trump's administration has blocked or revisited since 20 January. The Trump administration has targeted multiple offshore wind and solar projects this year and has ordered the developer of the nearly complete 704MW Revolution Wind project off the coast of Rhode Island to stop construction. That change fractured a bipartisan coalition that had spent months working on technology-neutral permitting language. The American Clean Power Association, the largest industry group for US renewable energy, on Wednesday withdrew its support of the bill , arguing the "poison pill amendment" that Republicans made eviscerated bipartisan language that gave expedited permitting treatment for all types of energy resources. A number of House Democrats who had backed the bill also withdrew their support. American Clean Power plans to work with both parties in the Senate to make changes. "This is not the final draft," representative Scott Peters (D-California) said during floor debate Thursday, vowing to work with his colleagues in the Senate to address House Democrats' concerns. By Chris Knight and Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Korrektur: Diesel in 2026 teurer als erwartet

25/12/18

Korrektur: Diesel in 2026 teurer als erwartet

In der ursprünglichen Version wurde die CO2-Abgabe inkorrekt angegeben. Dies wurde sowohl in der Tabelle als auch in der Grafik korrigiert. Hamburg, 18 December (Argus) — Händler bieten B7-Diesel für Januar mit einem Aufpreis von 10 €/100l bis 17 €/100l an, teurer als von Argus berechnet. Das ist der bisher höchste Preisanstieg zum Jahreswechsel, der durch eine Erhöhung der CO2-Abgabe und THG-Quote verursacht wurde. Argus hat einen theoretischen Aufschlag von 8,50 €/100l für B7-Diesel berechnet (siehe Grafik). Ein möglicher Grund für den deutlich höher ausfallenden Aufpreis für B7 ist, dass Händler die THG-Kosten aufgrund anhaltender Unsicherheiten anders berechnen als Argus . Das Bundeskabinett hat am 10. Dezember über die Umsetzung der Erneuerbaren Energien-Direktive (RED III) der EU in deutsches Gesetz abgestimmt. Dadurch herrscht im Markt mehr Klarheit mit Blick auf die gesetzlichen Rahmenbedingungen in 2026. Zuvor dürften die Preisen für das kommende Jahr vor allem durch die Unsicherheit bezüglich der genauen Umsetzung von RED III getrieben worden sein. Die THG-Quote wird 2026 von aktuell 10,6 % auf 12 % steigen, weshalb für das Inverkehrbringen fossiler Kraftstoffe mehr THG-Zertifikate vorgewiesen werden müssen. Bis zur Abstimmung am 10. Dezember gingen Marktteilnehmer davon aus, dass fortschrittliche Kraftstoffe künftig nicht mehr doppelt auf die Erfüllung der THG-Quote angerechnet werden dürfen. Dies hat sich nun bestätigt. Der künftige Wegfall der Doppelanrechnung könnte das Beimischen von Biokraftstoffen attraktiver machen und Preise für sowohl Biokraftstoffe und die Übertragung von THG-Zertifikaten erhöhen. Marktteilnehmer rechnen außerdem mit einem Rückgang der Biokraftstoff-Importe aus Asien, wodurch die Quotenerfüllung und somit auch fossile Kraftstoffe in Deutschland teurer werden könnten. Grund hierfür ist zum einen die geplante Abschaffung der Vertrauensschutzregelung , die Käufer unrechtmäßiger THG-Zertifikate vor Aberkennung schützt. Auch herrschte noch Unsicherheit darüber, wie genau die Unterquote für erneuerbare Kraftstoffe nicht-biogenen Urpsrungs (RFNBOs) — wie etwa e-Fuels und grüner Wasserstoff — gestaltet wird. Ein Entwurf vom November beinhaltete bei Nichterfüllung der RFNBO-Unterquote eine Pönale von etwa 120 €/GJ, statt der zuvor vorgeschlagenen 70 €/GJ. Dies wurde mit der Kabinettssitzung am 10. Dezember ebenfalls bestätigt. Auch bei der Einpreisung der CO2-Abgabe für das nächste Jahr sehen sich Händler weiterhin mit Unklarheiten konfrontiert. Einige Händler verwenden für Kalkulationen aktuell einen CO2-Preis von 68 €/t CO2e. Darüber hinaus wird auch die Unsicherheit bezüglich des Auktionsverfahrens eingepreist, da die Auktionen erst im Sommer beginnen und die konkreten CO2-Kosten bis dahin nicht eindeutig sind. Manche Händler planen daher zusätzliche Rücklagen, um etwaige Nachzahlungen decken zu können. Die CO2-Abgabe wird im kommenden Jahr von einem Festpreismodell bei aktuell 55 €/t CO2e in ein Auktionsverfahren übergeleitet, bei dem der Preis einer Emissionsberechtigung zwischen 55 € und 65 € schwanken kann. Eine Emissionsberechtigung entspricht dabei einer Tonne CO2-Äquivalent. Unternehmen, die bei Auktionen leer ausgehen, können nachträglich Emissionsberechtigungen zum Festpreis von 68 € nachkaufen. Außerdem könnte im Sekundärmarkt für Unternehmen, die nicht an Auktionen teilnehmen, der Preis noch höher liegen. Einige Inverkehrbringer halten sich aufgrund dieser regulatorischen Unklarheiten weiterhin mit der Bekanntgabe von Januarpreisen zurück, was die Unsicherheit im Markt zusätzlich verstärkt. Mit dem Kabinettsbeschluss vom 10. Dezember könnten Händler ihre Preisgestaltung für Januar konkretisieren. Für Heizöl liegen die gemeldeten Aufschläge etwa zwischen 2,50 €/100l bis 4,50 €/100l und stimmen somit ungefähr mit den Berechnungen von Argus überein. Von Marcel Pott CO2-Abgabe je 100l € Kosten pro t CO2 B0/HE B7 E5 E10 45 € 12.04 11.22 10.26 9.73 55 € 14.72 13.72 12.54 11.90 65 € 17.40 16.21 14.82 14.06 68 € 18.20 16.96 15.50 14.71 *B7 mit 6,8 l FAME; E5 mit 4,8 l Ethanol und E10 mit 9,66l Ethanol THG- Erfüllungskosten je 100l € B0 B7 E5 E10 2025 9,13 9,70 6,83 6,74 2026 16,33 14,99 11,68 10,72 *Erfüllung der THG-Quote durch Blending und Zukauf von Zertifikaten, Erfüllung des RFNBO-Mandats durch Pönale Kumulierte Kosten THG-Quote und CO2 Abgabe Senden Sie Kommentare und fordern Sie weitere Informationen an feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Alle Rechte vorbehalten.

2026 set to be among 4 hottest years: UK Met Office

25/12/18

2026 set to be among 4 hottest years: UK Met Office

London, 18 December (Argus) — The forecast for 2026 suggests that it is likely to be one of the four warmest years on record, in terms of global average temperature, UK weather agency the Met Office said today. The Met Office's central estimate for 2026 puts the global average temperature at 1.46°C above pre-industrial levels. The range the agency forecasts is between 1.34°C and 1.58°C above the pre-industrial average. The central estimate suggests that 2026 will be the fourth consecutive year that the average temperature will be at least 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels. "Prior to this surge, the previous global temperature had not exceeded 1.3°C", the Met Office's Professor Adam Scaife said. Scaife leads the team behind the global forecast for 2026. The global average temperature in 2024 was 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels, making it the hottest year on record , several international weather and science agencies agreed. The Paris climate agreement seeks to limit the global rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursues a 1.5°C threshold. The Paris accord's temperature parameters work on a longer timeframe, of at least two decades, so a temperature breach across a year or a few years does not render the accord broken. The World Meteorological Organisation in March estimated that the current level of global warming is at 1.37°C above pre-industrial levels. And climate science "may be underestimating the magnitude of human-induced global warming", given a recent surge in global temperatures, the UN Environment Programme said earlier this month. This year is "on course" to tie with 2023 as the second hottest year on record, EU earth-monitoring programme Copernicus said earlier this month . The global average temperature anomaly for January-November this year is 0.60°C above the 1991-2020 average, and 1.48°C above the pre-industrial reference period of 1850-1900, Copernicus data show. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Denmark pledges $9.5bn over 15 years for climate goals

25/12/18

Denmark pledges $9.5bn over 15 years for climate goals

London, 18 December (Argus) — Denmark has set aside 4bn Danish kroner ($630mn) annually for 15 years from 2034 in order to reach its climate goals, climate minister Lars Aagaard said today. The government has set the country's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target for 2035 — a cut of 82pc from 1990 levels, which Aagaard announced at the UN Cop 30 climate summit in November. Denmark aims to reach net zero emissions by 2045, and negative emissions beyond that. The government has since the end of November negotiated with all parties in parliament on the new 2035 climate goal, it said today. The target is set, although there was not "common ground to be able to make a broad agreement", Aagaard said today. "The door is still open for co-operation," he said. "I also think that there is a possibility of raising the target at a later date if the conditions change." The government has prioritised the "necessary financing" to hit climate goals, Aagaard said. "Everyday life must not become unnecessarily expensive for Danes and Danish companies," he said. "We are in a different place than we were in 2019, when the last target was set." Denmark's 2035 goal is one of the most ambitious in the world. It is similar to fellow northwest European oil and gas producer the UK , which has set a goal of 81pc GHG cuts over 1990-2035. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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