25/12/22
Viewpoint: BZ demand to see little change in 2026
Viewpoint: BZ demand to see little change in 2026
Houston, 22 December (Argus) — US benzene (BZ) demand is expected to remain
steady in the first quarter of 2026 because of low operating rates for BZ
derivatives, sources said. Operating rates for BZ derivatives were low in 2025
because of weak demand and a busy turnaround season, with several styrene
monomer (SM), cumene and phenol producers conducting turnarounds. At least one
US Gulf coast styrene producer is expected to perform a turnaround in the first
quarter that is estimated to run 20-30 days, another source said. Ethylbenzene
(EB) demand into gasoline blending may finally see its seasonal lull, as
high-octane, low-Reid vapor pressure (RVP) blendstocks are typically in low
demand from October-March, when US gasoline specifications allow high-RVP
blendstocks like butane to enter the blend pool. In late 2025, EB demand
remained steady into gasoline blending because of strong demand for high-octane
aromatic blendstocks to offset low-octane light naphtha, which was blended into
the gasoline pool to keep up with the demand for US gasoline exports. But, with
expensive feedstock BZ heading into 2026, EBSM producers cannot sell EB above
breakeven levels, which caused EBSM producers to reduce operating rates, sources
said. When spot BZ reaches a premium to feedstock reformate prices, EB becomes a
less competitive blendstock because of its production cost ( see chart ). This
disposition of ethylbenzene's value as a blendstock opens competition for other
aromatic blendstocks like toluene and mixed xylenes to enter the gasoline pool.
North American EBSM operating rates are expected to remain at 48-60pc in early
2026, according to a generic Argus model with operating rates informed by market
participants. SM export demand is anticipated to remain limited. The arbitrage
to Europe is closed for December-loading cargoes to arrive in January, Argus
data show. Buying interest could emerge from Latin America, which typically
takes 20,000-25,000 metric tonnes (t) of SM from North America every two or
three months, depending on polystyrene (PS) production rates. Cumene demand is
expected to remain flat in 2026 on steady, though sluggish, downstream demand
for phenol and acetone, which have big shares in the construction, automobile,
appliances and resin industries. A source said sellers are taking customers'
spending and borrowing power into deeper consideration when exploring spot and
new contract opportunities to mitigate selling risk. Phenol is anticipated to
see little fundamental change in 2026, sources said. There are few expected
phenol turnarounds for maintenance in the first half of the year, and sources
expect consumption to remain comparable to 2025. New housing permits declined in
2025 compared to 2024, according to US Census Bureau data, which led to fewer
homes being built and less phenol demand. About half of all phenol produced in
the US goes into the construction sector. Phenol and cyclohexane demand from the
automotive industry may decline in 2026 on lower automobile manufacturing
leading into the new year. Domestic automobile production trailed lower
throughout 2025 as many producers were operating below full output rates. In
August, US automobile production dipped below 100,000 units for the first time
since January, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Before
January, monthly domestic automobile production last dipped below 100,000 units
in September 2021. The automotive industry makes up nearly 22pc of phenol
consumption. Benzene supply is expected to remain low in 2026 on reduced US
production and fewer imports because of US tariff policies that add costs for
traders. On production, some market participants expect selective toluene
disproportionation (STDP) unit operating rates to remain low in 2026 because BZ
prices rose in late 2025 on tight supply, not strong demand, sources said.
Though STDP margins look healthy on paper moving into 2026, if STDP operators
raise production rates, the higher BZ supply would depress prices and margins to
the point where STDP operators decide to turn run rates down again or idle their
units, another source said. The US is historically in a net BZ deficit and
usually relies on BZ imports to add supply when BZ production lags demand. With
US tariff policies adding costs to those imports, shipments of BZ from Europe
and Asia have largely declined. Market participants said they expect this trend
to continue in 2026 without changes to US tariff policy. By Jake Caldwell
Ethylbenzene economics vs Benzene and Reformate $/t Send comments and request
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