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Brazil to walk tightrope in Cop 30 fossil fuel talks

Brazil to walk tightrope in Cop 30 fossil fuel talks

Rio de Janeiro, 20 May (Argus) — Brazil is arguing that its developing country status allows it to consolidate its position as a major crude producer and is likely to lean on developed countries during much-awaited discussions on moving away from fossil fuels at the UN Cop 30 climate conference in November. Attempts to reach an ambitious outcome on mitigation — cutting greenhouse gas emissions — and actions to move away from fossil fuels were quashed at Cop 29 in Baku last year, and all eyes are on Brazil to bridge divides on this issue . Cop 30 president-designate Andre Correa do Lago has failed to address fossil fuels in his two letters outlining priorities for the summit, but members of the Cop 30 team have indicated the issue will be on the agenda. With geopolitical tensions and energy security questions redirecting government priorities away from the energy transition, the outlook is more challenging than when Cop parties agreed the global stocktake (GST) conclusion on fossil fuels and energy in 2023 . But Brazil is well-placed to take the lead. It is a respected player in climate discussions and has one of the cleanest energy mix — 49pc of its energy and 89pc of its electricity comes from renewables. Its own mitigation efforts prioritize slashing deforestation, which accounts for the lion's share of Brazil's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Non-profit World Resources Institute Brazil describes the emissions reduction target in Brazil's nationally determined contribution (NDC) — climate plan — as "reasonable to insufficient" and notes that energy emissions are expected to increase by 20pc in the decade to 2034. Its NDC avoids any concrete steps towards winding down crude. After you The government's view on fossil fuels is that Brazil's developing country status, the oil and gas industry's importance in its economy and comparatively low fossil fuel emissions justify pushing ahead with oil production. Correa do Lago said earlier that Belem was picked as a venue for Cop 30 to show that Brazil is still a developing country, adding that any decision on oil and gas should be taken by Brazil's citizens. President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said that oil revenue will fund the energy transition. It is a position that has earned Brazil accusations of hypocrisy from environmentalists at home and abroad, but which also places it as a possible model for other hydrocarbon-producer developing countries. Brazil's diplomatic tradition of pragmatically balancing seemingly opposing positions could serve it well here, said Gabriel Brasil, a senior analyst focused on climate at Control Risks, a consultancy. He does not see Brazil's attempt to balance climate leadership with continued oil production as hurting its standing among fellow parties or energy investors. Civil society stakeholders hope pre-Cop meetings will help bring clarity on how Brazil might broach the fossil fuel debate. Indigenous groups, which are set to be given more space at Cop, are demanding an end to fossil fuel extraction in the environmentally sensitive Foz do Amazonas offshore basin. Meanwhile, Brazilian state-owned Petrobras moved one step closer to being authorized to begin offshore drilling there . During meetings of the UN climate body — the UNFCCC — in Panama City this week, the Cop 30 presidency will present ideas for the summit "with a focus on the full implementation of the GST". But it has to wait for countries to update their NDCs to gauge what is achievable on mitigation. Only 20 have submitted new NDCs so far, with the deadline pushed back to September. Brazil's own NDC gives some clues. It welcomes the launch "of international work for the definition of schedules for transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems" and reiterates that developed countries should take the lead. And a report commissioned by Brazil's oil chamber IBP and civil society organization ICS to be given to negotiators ranks Brazil as a "mover" in the transition away from oil and gas, ahead of "adapters" like India and Nigeria but behind "front-runners" Germany and the US. The research develops the idea of a country-based transition plan, using criteria such as energy security and institutional and social resilience, as well as oil and gas relevance. By Constance Malleret 2023 Brazil emissions sources Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.