US southbound barge demand falls off earlier than usual

: Agriculture, Battery materials, Biofuels, Chemicals, Coal, Coking coal, Fertilizers, Metals, Petrochemicals, Petroleum coke
24/05/01

Southbound barge rates in the US have fallen on unseasonably low demand because of increased competition in the international grain market.

Rates for voyages down river have deteriorated to "unsustainable" levels, said American Commercial Barge Line. Southbound rates declined in April to an average tariff of 284pc across all rivers this April, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), which is below breakeven levels for many barge carriers. Rates typically do not fall below a 300pc tariff until May or June.

Southbound freight values for May are expected to hold steady or move lower, said sources this week. Southbound activity has increased recently because of the low rates, but not enough to push prices up.

The US has already sold 84pc of its forecast corn exports and 89pc of forecast soybean exports with only five months left until the end of the corn and soybean marketing year, according to the USDA. US corn and soybean prices have come down since the beginning of the year in order to stay competitive with other origins. The USDA lowered its forecast for US soybean exports by 545,000t in its April report as soybeans from Brazil and Argentina were more competitively priced.

US farmers are holding onto more of their harvest from last year because of low crop prices, curbing exports.

Prompt CBOT corn futures averaged $435/bushel in April, down 34pc from April 2023.

Weak southbound demand could last until fall when the US enters harvest season and exports ramp up southbound barge demand. Major agriculture-producing countries such as Argentina and Brazil are expected to export their grain harvest before the US. Brazil has finished planting corn on time.

unlike last year. The US may face less competition from Brazil in the fall as a result.

Carriers are tying up barges earlier than usual to avoid losses on southbound barge voyages. Carriers that have already parked their barges will take their time re-entering the market unless tariffs become profitable again.

The carriers who remain on the river will gain more southbound market share and possibly more northbound spot interest.

By Meghan Yoyotte and Eduardo Gonzalez

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25/05/14

UK ethanol sector sees lower prices from US trade deal

London, 14 May (Argus) — The UK ethanol sector expects prices to fall because of the recent trade deal with the US, but participants are divided on the scale of the effect. The trade deal has cut import duties on US ethanol to zero on higher volumes than recent import levels, raising the prospect of large amounts of US product crossing the Atlantic. The UK was the second largest destination for US ethanol exports in 2024, taking more than 923mn l, or 13pc of all exports, according to US industry group Renewable Fuels Association. The UK imposed a duty of £16/hectolitre ($21/hectolitre) for undenatured ethanol and £8.50/hectolitre for denatured ethanol, which the trade deal will remove. Zero tariffs will be applied to up to 1.4bn l/yr. European renewable ethanol association ePure told Argus the deal presents a "huge problem" for UK and EU ethanol producers, a view echoed by some UK market participants. But some active in the UK ethanol market have said that while they do not expect greater amounts of ethanol to arrive in the country, they do anticipate lower prices and lower domestic production. The operators of the UK's two major ethanol-producing facilities, Vivergo and Cropenergies, said there will be zero tariffs on "the size of the UK's whole ethanol market", and said they may have to close. According to Argus data the total UK production capacity for wheat-based ethanol is over 736mn l/yr. The National Farmers' Union expressed concern about the deal's effect on arable farmers, and said it is "working through what this means for the viability of the domestic bioethanol production." Although a healthy share of the total import pool from the US is waste-based, the UK government is consulting on whether to continue classing the main waste feedstock imported from the US as eligible for double counting under its renewable transport fuel obligation (RTFO). Staging post UK producers may still seek to maximise imports from the US for onward export into the EU. The current EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) allows for zero tariffs and quotas on all trade of UK and EU goods that comply with appropriate rules or origin. But with this new deal, there is an increased chance of US ethanol entering the EU via the UK, Epure said. "Under existing customs rules US ethanol can be mixed with UK ethanol and thus avoid an EU duty," it said. This may include major proportion, which limits the share of non-originating materials to claim UK origin, or inward processing relief, which allows for imports to be processed without paying import duties or value added tax (VAT) before re-export. Some market participants contested the extent to which UK-EU flows of ethanol with partial US origin might happen, suggesting the imported ethanol would need to undergo a significant chemical change to be classified as duty free, such as being used as feedstock for products including ethyl tert-butyl ether (ETBE). EPure said the EU should be wary, and called for ethanol to be included in a final list of products subject to EU countermeasures, as it was in a recent proposal from the bloc currently under public consultation. By Toby Shay Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Rio Tinto sells first PBF cargo with new specification

25/05/14

Rio Tinto sells first PBF cargo with new specification

Sydney, 14 May (Argus) — UK-Australian metal producer Rio Tinto on 13 May sold its first cargo of Pilbara Blend Fines (PBF) iron ore with a revised iron content specification of 60.8pc. Years of grade challenges have led to declining volumes of the blended product, which previously contained 61.6pc Fe. Rio Tinto continues to review product strategy, based on consumer needs and available ore grades, the company told Argus on 13 May. It has notified consumers of Pilbara Blend specification changes and is engaging with them, a spokesperson added. Over the past year, market participants have reported rising volumes of the company's SP10 blend — which has a lower iron ore content, but higher alumina and phosphorus levels, than PBF — being sold into China's portside market to maintain the grade of its PBF product. The reduction in grade in PBF is expected to result in greater volumes of its flagship product being available. Rio Tinto said the average realised fob price from its Australian assets was $97.40/dmt last year — slightly below Argus ' average 2024 iron ore fines 62pc Fe (ICX) fob Australia netback of $98.46/dmt. Rio Tinto's realised fob price includes fines and lump products from across Western Australia. These include lower-grade products and the more-valuable lump, which accounts for about 30pc of total sales over most quarters. Rio Tinto is not the only company facing grade challenges. Typical grades for Australia's BHP have also been steadily declining over recent years, and ores typically deliver below 62pc Fe. Mineral Resources' average ore grade at its 10mn t/yr Pilbara Hub complex was 57.3pc in July 2024-March 2025, down from 58.2pc a year earlier. Argus ' iron ore fines 62pc Fe (ICX) cfr Qingdao price was assessed at $102.40/dmt today, down from $98.95/dmt on 14 April. Rio Tinto's revised PBF product with July delivery traded at $96.41/dmt. Argus plans to launch an assessment for 61pc Fe iron ore fines next month to reflect the ongoing decline in average grades in Australia's Pilbara region. The new price will be calculated from the same underlying spot data as the existing ICX 62pc Fe benchmark. By Avinash Govind Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mauritania weaves GTA project into industrial strategy

25/05/14

Mauritania weaves GTA project into industrial strategy

Paris, 14 May (Argus) — Offshore gas production could help to meet Mauritania's power demand by 2030 while also supporting mining activity, particularly of iron ore, energy minister Mohammed Ould Khaled told the Invest in African Energy forum today. BP last month loaded the first LNG shipment from its 2.7mn t/yr Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) joint venture in Mauritanian and Senegalese waters. GTA is export-oriented, but Mauritania could still tap the project for power, Khaled said, although he added that infrastructure would need to be built to facilitate this. A tender to build a power plant fired by GTA gas will be launched in the next couple of weeks, he said. Mauritania wants to become a regional power hub within 20 years, Khaled said, and hopes to see construction of a power link "to the north" — in the direction of Western Sahara/Morocco. The Mauritanian power grid is already connected to Senegal and Mali, he said. Future power generation projects will be funded by the private sector and incentivised through tax breaks, Khaled said, with 550MW set to become available to the domestic market through private-sector projects over the next couple of years. Mauritania is also looking for partners to develop the 50 trillion-60 trillion ft³ Bir Allah gas field for export and domestic markets. The area lies 50km north of GTA and exclusively in Mauritanian waters, according to Khaled, with two wells already having been sunk. Bir Allah is "three times bigger than GTA", he said. BP and Kosmos Energy signed an exploration and production-sharing agreement for the site in late 2022 , with BP saying gas from the field will be used to expand GTA to 10mn t/yr. It is unclear whether BP or Kosmos Energy are still partners in the Bir Allah development project. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Quotas most likely option for DRC cobalt export restart

25/05/14

Quotas most likely option for DRC cobalt export restart

London, 14 May (Argus) — The resumption of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) under a quota system appears almost inevitable, market participants said ahead of the Cobalt Institute's annual conference in Singapore this week. With cobalt prices rising and stocks tightening globally, market participants increasingly expect that the DRC's blanket cobalt export ban — implemented in late February — will transition into a more sustainable quota system. The current freeze has pushed up global cobalt prices, but also blocked the flow of royalties to the Congolese treasury, creating what several traders described as a politically deliberate but ultimately transitional phase. "This is not [Congolese trading and mining firm] Gecamines — it's Kinshasa, it's the ministry of mines, and ultimately it's the presidency," one trader said, emphasising the centralised nature of the decision-making this time around. The government's key grievance is financial, multiple sources agreed. Cobalt royalty revenues have collapsed in recent years, according to several market participants. "They've lost billions," said one source with direct links to the ministry of mines. "This only makes sense if they replace the ban with something dynamic that keeps prices up and restarts the royalty flow." Prices up, revenues frozen Prices for cobalt hydroxide have nearly doubled since February, from $6/lb cif China to close to $12/lb — a sharper jump than during than any previous bans on DRC exports, including the ban on Chinese producer CMOC's Tenke Fungerume mine in 2022, now the largest cobalt mine in the world ( see graph ). But with exports halted, the Congolese government has reaped none of the upside. "They got the prices up, sure — but right now, there's nothing coming in. No exports mean no royalties," one trader noted, "A quota is the only real way forward." Market participants expect any such quota regime to be modelled loosely on Opec, with the DRC restricting supplies in a co-ordinated way to support pricing. "The officials running this are oil and gas guys," one source who has met with the DRC delegation said. "They want Opec on steroids. They've said that outright." Others draw comparisons with Indonesia, which already operates a quota system for its nickel ore mining permits and mixed-hydroxide-precipitate (MHP), which contains cobalt. "Indonesian quotas are real, but they're built into nickel flows. It's not exactly apples to apples," a trader said. "So for Indonesia to reduce cobalt output, they'd have to reduce nickel output, which they don't want to do." Stockpiles thinning, squeeze ahead Record-high first-quarter cobalt hydroxide production by CMOC and global trafing and mining firm Glencore — at 30,000t and 9,500t, respectively — suggests a healthier supply picture than is really the case. "Production hasn't stopped, but that's the point — if exports don't resume, stocks will just build up inside the DRC or dry up abroad," a trader said. Some estimates place global cobalt hydroxide inventories at 50,000–70,000t, but availability depends heavily on who holds what. "20,000t with a larger producer is not the same as 20,000t with a small recycler," one trader said. "Some are more inclined to sit on it and wait for prices to jump." Multiple participants expect a squeeze to emerge in the international market by August, as final pre-ban shipments are consumed and no new material enters the pipeline. "One producer told people there'd be no more shipments after May/June," one source with direct knowledge of trading flows said. "That means by July, China is chewing through remaining stocks — and by August, you're in crunch territory." Some traders are already stockpiling, with exporters deliberately delaying cargoes to benefit from rising prices, market participants said. Strong enforcement The DRC's export restrictions are being heavily enforced. A customs brigade with military backing was deployed recently to Kasumbalesa on the DRC-Zambia border — the country's only significant cobalt export route — to prevent smuggling and enforce the ban. "People writing about illegal smuggling clearly haven't been to Katanga. There's one road. One crossing. It's tightly controlled," a trader told Argus . The new level of sophistication, some argue, is why a transition to quotas feels inevitable. "Extending the ban helps no one in the long term — not the DRC, not Chinese refiners, not the market," an industry consultant said. "A quota system is the only option that gives them both price and payment." Market sentiment remained mixed ahead of next week's conference, with cobalt spot trading thin, ranging from $15-16/lb in-warehouse Rotterdam for Chinese material, $17-18/lb for western standard grade and $19-20/lb for alloy grade. Whether the announcement comes in Singapore or in the weeks that follow, few now doubt the final outcome. "This [export ban] isn't a one-off," one participant said. "It's the start of a new model. The days of Congo flooding the market and watching others profit are over." By Chris Welch Cobalt prices post-DRC supply shocks pc Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indonesian cobalt output capacity to double by 2027

25/05/14

Indonesian cobalt output capacity to double by 2027

Singapore, 14 May (Argus) — Indonesian cobalt production capacity from its high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) operations will more than double to 114,000t in 2027 from 55,000t in 2024, National Economic Council member and executive secretary Septian Hario Seto has said. But there will probably not be significant capacity expansion beyond 2027, Seto told the Cobalt Congress 2025 conference on 14 May in Singapore. Xu Aidong, cobalt branch chief expert and adviser at the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, agreed that capacity will probably stick given slower-than-expected nickel consumption growth and rising costs for HPAL projects that include increasing sulphur prices used in hydrometallurgical production lines. Seto expects cobalt prices to trend up further if the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) cobalt export ban continues but warned that the measure could backfire as it could prompt technology adaptation to lower the cobalt content in batteries. "I think we [saw] in 2017 and 2018 [that the battery sector] responded with massive adoption of the [nickel-cobalt-manganese] NCM 811, so you are compromising long-term demand of cobalt with this one," Seto said. Mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) production in Indonesia is still able to generate 30-40pc profit margins even with nickel prices around $15,000/t, Seto added, attributing that partly to the cobalt content. The country exported almost 1.56mn t of MHP last year, with cobalt exports up to around 44,350t. Indonesia previously separated the MHP before further processing into nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate. "But nowadays, we directly ship the MHP and there is one factory in Indonesia that can process further the MHP going into the precursor without doing the crystallisation of the nickel sulphate," Seto said. "As long as we are increasing the MHP production in Indonesia, it's not possible to [be asked] to control this cobalt," Seto said, adding that the country does not see cobalt as an "independent mineral" but one closely intertwined with nickel. Indonesia's position on nickel is very similar to the DRC's position on cobalt, said Seto, where the biggest producer has to be "careful" and "responsible" in ensuring sufficient supply in the market or risk being treated as "not reliable". A DRC decision on whether to extend the export ban or impose a strict limitation of exports "in part" has yet to be made . The country's mineral markets regulator Arecoms said during the conference that it will communicate its decision as planned at the end of the cobalt export suspension period, at odds with Chinese market participants' expectations for the conference. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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