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Oversupply drops Germany's E5 gasoline prices

  • : Oil products
  • 24/05/27

The end of this year's maintenance season and a general oversupply are pushing down E5 gasoline prices in Germany. Meanwhile, dumping prices for diesel in the south and east are causing disruptions.

Traders are offering E5 gasoline at significantly lower prices at the end of May than in April. The prices in the past week, which were €4.60/100l lower than last month, have dropped because the maintenance season in Europe is largely over and refineries have resumed production. At the same time, imports are increasing.

Gasoline cargo imports from trading hub Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp to Germany steadily increased in recent weeks. German seaports received 8,500 b/d in May, according to data from Vortexa. German gasoline exports by cargo were down to 3,700 b/d.

At the same time, market participants in the south and east are struggling to understand the unusually large price differences in the respective regions. According to traders, some sellers have been offering diesel with free delivery since at least the end of 2023, with prices €4-6/100l below domestic price quotations and thus far below usual purchase prices. As a result, other traders cannot compete.

Furthermore, various customs offices have been made aware of this price discrepancy and asked to investigate, but a result is still pending, market participants said. The General Customs Directorate cannot not provide information on any ongoing investigations, it told Argus.

The companies that offer diesel so cheaply have only been active for a short time or were not previously active in the oil market. Two of them confirmed to Argus that they sell diesel below domestic price levels, but did not provide information on who exactly imports the goods to Germany and puts them on the market, meaning who is responsible for the energy tax, EBV contribution, CO2 levy and THG costs. It was just typical trading business, they said.


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25/07/10

Opec sees oil demand rising to 123mn b/d by 2050

Opec sees oil demand rising to 123mn b/d by 2050

London, 10 July (Argus) — Opec has raised its long-term oil demand forecast by nearly 3mn b/d, driven by stronger growth in India and the Middle East and a shifting policy landscape that it says is reinforcing fossil fuels' role in the global energy mix. "There is no peak oil demand on the horizon," Opec secretary-general Haitham al-Ghais said in the group's latest World Oil Outlook (WOO), repeating a line he used in last year's edition and underscoring Opec's ongoing rejection of forecasts that see oil use peaking before 2030. Opec argues that such forecasts underestimate demand growth in developing economies and overstate the pace of the energy transition. The 2025 WOO lifts Opec's 2050 oil demand projection to 122.9mn b/d, from 120.1mn b/d in last year's WOO. Its 2040 forecast is revised up to 120mn b/d from 117.8mn b/d. The 2030 outlook is unchanged at 113.3mn b/d, but the group sees a steeper rise in demand in the later years of the forecast. While the overall trajectory remains consistent with last year's WOO, the new report places greater emphasis on policy recalibration in major economies. It highlights growing political resistance to decarbonisation targets — particularly in the US and parts of Europe — and said energy affordability and supply security are increasingly shaping national strategies. These shifts, Opec suggests, are slowing the pace of energy transitions and supporting continued oil demand growth. The 2025 WOO adopts a more cautious tone on electrification, citing infrastructure and cost challenges, and acknowledges the geopolitical effect of the US' second withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement — a development not covered in last year's edition. India leads the pack India makes the biggest single contribution to the long-term demand increase. Opec forecasts the country's oil use to more than double from 2024, to 13.7mn b/d by 2050. Demand in China, on the other hand, rises in the medium term but flattens after 2035, reflecting slower economic growth and rising electric vehicle uptake. OECD demand is projected by Opec to edge up to 46.6mn b/d by 2030 — from 45.7mn b/d in 2024 — before entering a steady decline. By 2050, it is put at 37.2mn b/d, led by sharp reductions in Europe's transport and residential sectors. The sectoral breakdown remains broadly unchanged from last year. Road transport, petrochemicals and aviation account for most of the demand growth between 2025 and 2050. Oil use in road transport is forecast to rise by 5.3mn b/d, aviation by 4.2mn b/d and petrochemicals by 4.7mn b/d. Supply to match demand On the supply side, Opec projects global liquids output at 113.6mn b/d by 2030 and 123mn b/d by 2050. It still expects US production to peak at just over 23mn b/d around 2030, before falling to 19.6mn b/d by mid-century. Non-Opec+ supply is seen plateauing in the 2030s, with Opec+ producers expected to meet most of the incremental demand, lifting their share of global supply to 52pc by 2050 from 48pc in 2024. Opec estimates $18.2 trillion of investment will be needed to meet oil demand through to 2050, up from $17.4 trillion in the 2024 report. Of the total, $14.9 trillion — more than 80pc — is allocated to upstream. The group reiterated that underinvestment could threaten future supply security and market stability. The report notes refining capacity is expected to keep pace with long-term demand growth, but warns of a potential short-term tightening later this decade as the rise in oil demand outpaces new capacity — particularly in Asia-Pacific. By James Keates Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Paving Amazon road may spoil Brazil climate target


25/07/08
25/07/08

Paving Amazon road may spoil Brazil climate target

Sao Paulo, 8 July (Argus) — Brazil suspended the paving and reconstruction of the northern BR-319 highway, which would drive up deforestation and make it impossible for Brazil to meet its climate targets by 2050, according to the environment ministry. Reconstructing the highway would increased deforestation and generate 8bn metric tonnes (t) of CO2 by 2050, according to the environment ministry. This would run counter to Brazil's efforts to eliminate deforestation — both legal and illegal — by 2030, to meet its emissions reductions targets under the Paris climate agreement. A federal court decision from October 2024 allowed plans by former-president Jair Bolsonaro's administration to rebuild and pave BR-319 to move forward through a preliminary license. The federal court reassessed the case on 2 July, suspending the preliminary license for the second time. The first suspension dates back to July 2024, when a federal environmental court stopped the work under an argument of irreversible risks to the Amazon forest if the concession remained active. The 918km BR-319 connects the capitals northern Amazonia and Rondonia states, Manaus and Porto Velho, both in the Amazon forest biome. While the preliminary license was in force, deforestation around the highway more than doubled, including in conservation areas, Brazilian climate network Observatorio do Clima said. An increase in deforestation could cut water supply to large cities in the center-south and reduce agriculture and cattle raising by interfering in the rainfall pattern, according to the ministry. It also added that 95pc of Amazon's deforestation happens within 5.5km of highways. Brazil's environmental watchdog Ibama has strengthened its monitoring in the BR-319 to prevent deforestation and other illegal practices in the surrounded areas. Ibama agents have seized tractors and power generators near Tapaua city, in Amazonas, which were used to support illegal activities in the Amazon forest, such as wood extraction. Ibama also applied R8mn ($1.46mn) in environmental fines and blocked access to 1,600 hectares (ha) of deforested areas to fight ongoing illegal activities, it said today. By João Curi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Paraguay, Argentina extend Km 171 fuel shipping


25/07/08
25/07/08

Paraguay, Argentina extend Km 171 fuel shipping

Sao Paulo, 8 July (Argus) — Paraguay's national directorate of tax revenue DNIT and Argentina's customs revenue and control agency Arca extended operations at the transshipment zone at the Km 171 mark in the Parana Guazu River for an additional 10 months. The announcement, shared by DNIT head Oscar Orue on social media, comes after days of tension sparked by Argentina's earlier decision to suspend operations at the site, citing a lack of formal port authorization. Argentina's decision was criticized by Paraguayan authorities and industry groups last week , who warned of potential fuel supply disruptions and increased logistics costs. Km 171 is a critical hub for ship-to-barge transfers of oil products such as diesel and naphtha for landlocked Paraguay, which relies heavily on river transport for fuel imports. While the new agreement ensures continued operations in the short term, it remains unclear whether the 10-month extension will serve as a transitional period for negotiations toward a permanent solution. By Flavia Alemi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

French diesel, HVO customs data mislabelled: Eurostat


25/07/08
25/07/08

French diesel, HVO customs data mislabelled: Eurostat

Barcelona, 8 July (Argus) — French firms have mislabelled imports of 10ppm diesel as hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) this year, following confusion over new customs codes, EU data service Eurostat has said. The confusion has come about after the introduction of a new import-export (CN) code for HVO that took effect at the start of 2025. Some French data will be restated. A diesel code of 27101943 was discontinued at the end of 2024 and was replaced by 27101944. A new CN code 27101942 for HVO was introduced. HVO is produced by treating vegetable oil with hydrogen, counts against biodiesel blend mandates, but is molecularly separate from biodiesel output by esterification. When customs data for 2025 began to be published at the end of the first quarter, France appeared to be importing large amounts of HVO from Saudi Arabia and the US. Cargoes from the former amounted to around 255,000t in the first quarter. Saudi Arabia has no HVO production known by Argus , nor does it re-export cargoes. It is France's largest diesel supplier. There were also 140,000t labelled as HVO from the US in January-March. But because the EU has anti-dumping and countervailing duties on US HVO imports, shipments of this size appeared questionable. The US is the second biggest diesel supplier to France. The mislabelling has made French and EU HVO traffic difficult to track. It has distorted French diesel import data , which show imports have fallen sharply. Argus first questioned the numbers in March when initial 2025 customs data were released. These queries were rebuffed, but after a follow up in May Eurostat said French customs had "confirmed that there has been an input error". New data will be supplied by France at an unspecified time this year, it said. By Adam Porter Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Nigeria’s imports of European gasoline hit record low


25/07/07
25/07/07

Nigeria’s imports of European gasoline hit record low

London, 7 July (Argus) — Nigerian imports of European gasoline fell to a record low in June, according to Kpler tracking data, as rising output from the country's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery sharply reduced demand for the product from the EU, UK and Norway. The drop in Nigerian buying pulled overall west African imports of European gasoline to a four-month low of 926,000t, down from 1.315mn t in May and 20pc lower year-on-year. Nigeria, long the region's largest gasoline importer, slipped behind Togo last month as the Dangote refinery hit its highest monthly run rate since coming online. The country is approaching a turning point in its gasoline trade balance. June arrivals into Nigeria from Europe fell by 56pc on the month to 231,000t — the lowest recorded by Kpler. It also imported 28,000t from offshore Lome and 12,000t from Houston, leaving a total of 271,000t. At the same time, Dangote loaded a record 252,000t of gasoline for export last month. This included 90,000t aboard the Pis Kerinci to Sohar, Oman; 89,000t on the Hafnia Larissa to Pasir Gudang, Malaysia; 35,000t on the Sabaek to Abidjan, Ivory Coast; and a further 39,000t aboard the Sabaek , which has yet to discharge. The country could be on the verge of flipping to net exporter status, given the Dangote refinery has "extra plant capacity to produce gasoline", according to Dangote Group executive director Edwin Devakumar. The plant's naphtha hydrotreating unit has "flexibility to achieve additional production", and Dangote has recently begun buying naphtha to support gasoline output, he said. The fall in Nigerian demand for gasoline imports, combined with weaker-than-expected US consumption, is raising concerns over outlet options for European gasoline this summer, a European trader told Argus . Europe remains a large net exporter of the product. Benchmark non-oxy gasoline barge cracks to front-month Ice Brent crude futures averaged $14.73/bl between 1–4 July, broadly steady on the year and slightly up from $14.62/bl in the same period of 2024. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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