EIA raises 2024 RD output forecast, cuts 2025

: Biofuels
24/06/11

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) today raised its forecasts for domestic renewable diesel (RD) production and consumption in 2024 while cutting expectations for next year.

The US is expected to produce 218,000 b/d of renewable diesel this year, according to EIA's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), up by 2.8pc from last month's forecast. The EIA raised its 2024 outlook for US renewable diesel consumption to 244,000 b/d, up by 3.4pc from last month's STEO.

For next year, the EIA expects 272,000 b/d of US renewable diesel production, down by 4.6pc from its forecast last month and down by 7.4pc from its initial 2025 forecast in January. EIA sees US renewable diesel consumption at 290,000 b/d next year, 4pc below its May projection.

The agency raised its 2024 projection for US net imports of renewable diesel by 7.7pc to 28,000 b/d while keeping the 2025 outlook unchanged at 17,000 b/d.

Dimmer prospects for US renewable diesel growth next year come as declining environmental credit prices weigh on production margins. Prompt-month credits for California carbon allowances have fallen by 10pc so far this year, while spot California low-carbon fuel standard credits have fallen by 34pc and vintage 2024 biomass-based D4 diesel credits are 30pc lower, according to Argus assessments.

US biodiesel production this year is expected to average 100,000 b/d, according to the STEO, up by 1pc from May's outlook, with domestic consumption at 110,000 b/d. US biodiesel production and consumption in 2025 are forecast at 90,000 b/d and 85,000 b/d, respectively, unchanged from the prior outlook.

The EIA expects US biofuels to increasingly substitute for petroleum distillate, predicting renewable diesel and biodiesel this year will grow to 9pc of total distillate consumption, up from 7pc in 2023.

By Cole Martin

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25/02/06

Ethanol prices up on uncertainty, low margins in Feb

London, 6 February (Argus) — Spot ethanol prices in northwest Europe firmed to a six-month high at the start of February after several months of remaining largely steady. The minimum 64pc greenhouse gas (GHG) savings ethanol spot price reached €700/m³ on 4 February, its highest since 2 August 2024. Despite this, participants are reporting ample supply in the region, sufficient to meet current demand. The gains are largely attributed to a closed arbitrage with the US, higher production costs and ongoing uncertainty surrounding potential US tariffs. Some market participants believe the price rise in the ARA region is partially driven by higher ethanol prices in the US, which have been supported by rising corn prices . These participants said European prices may have tracked US price gains given the closed arbitrage with the country, with expectations that the arbitrage between the regions will reopen as a result of higher ethanol prices in ARA. Looking ahead, some market participants predict that ethanol imports will be reduced in the second quarter, which has caused the ethanol forward curve to shift into contango, with prices peaking at €711/m³ for the second quarter on 5 February. Trump tariffs turmoil Participants said prices are also being supported by uncertainty surrounding US president Donald Trump's plans to impose tariffs on imports from the EU. The European Commission said this week it will respond "firmly" should Trump "unfairly or arbitrarily" impose tariffs on EU goods. Trump made a similar complaint about the UK, but said he thinks "that one can be worked out". Retaliatory tariffs from the EU could affect ethanol flows, as the EU is a net importer of fuel ethanol. It imported almost 69,000t of undenatured ethanol — usually used for road fuel blending in most EU member states — from the US in January-November 2024, according to provisional EU customs data. The UK imported almost 600,000t of ethanol during the same period. The UK can leverage favourable arbitrage opportunities to import ethanol from the US and redirect it to the EU. Producers face higher costs Argus calculations show ethanol production margins for corn and wheat at €168.69/m³ and at €146.71/m³ on 5 February, down from €223.56/m³ and €205.33/m³ a year ago. Variable costs of yeasts, enzymes, chemicals and denaturants are not included in these calculations. Market participants said producers continue to adjust to a poor 2024-25 harvest season in Eastern Europe, caused by unfavourable weather conditions in Ukraine and France. Higher feedstock costs have contributed to higher ethanol prices, although the production margins are still tighter than last year. In Ukraine, Europe's largest wheat exporter excluding Russia, Argus forecasts wheat production will drop to 22.3mn t during 2024-25 , down from a five-year average of 24.7mn t. Corn supply from the country for 2024-25 is projected to fall to 22.9mn t, down from 31.5mn t in the previous season, according to Argus data. France — Europe's largest producer of ethanol — has cut its wheat production outlook for 2024-25 because of wet weather. Rainfall in other parts of Europe has affected corn toxin levels, potentially leading to poorer quality ethanol. This is likely to weigh on ethanol output in 2025 as it will strain feedstock supplies, push production costs up and squeeze margins for producers. More recently, European market participants said a late-winter cold snap may affect winter crops in Ukraine, and if so, strain feedstock supplies and push ethanol production costs up further. It comes as markets are still waiting for an update on level 2 in the nomenclature of territorial units for statistics GHG emission values, the so called Nuts 2 values. Biofuel producer Archer Daniels Midland expects ethanol profit margins to narrow this year, after posting wider margins in the fourth quarter. The company expects ethanol margins to drop to break-even in the first quarter on higher industry run rates, even as robust demand for exports from the US supports improved volumes, it said. ADM is one of the largest exporters of ethanol to Europe, according to those in the market. By Evelina Lungu Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU SAF mandate resets US market as credits uncertain

25/02/06

EU SAF mandate resets US market as credits uncertain

Houston, 6 February (Argus) — Looming questions over federal tax credits, supply concerns, and the future of trade flows are causing concerns for US sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) market participants, while buyers address needs in Europe given newly introduced mandates. The domestic SAF market in the US is spurred by incentives in the form of tax credits and subsidies. This "carrot instead of stick" method is meant to bridge the gap between the high cost of investment and production of SAF, making it feasible for airlines to consume and utilize the carbon-abating abilities of the low carbon fuel. The recent expiration of the 40B blenders tax credit has made its mark on the biofuels landscape, eating into the margins of products made with more carbon-intensive feedstocks and altering trade flows on a global level. With importers to the US west coast unable to capitalize on the federally backed incentive, producers like Neste who made up more than half of the SAF market in the US in 2024 direct their Singapore-based volumes elsewhere. US west coast delivered prices during the fourth quarter of 2025 ranged from $4.80/USG to $5.98/USG, reflective of volatility in the conventional jet basis as well as inconsistent supply available at major points of uplift. Prices in the third quarter of 2024 ranged from $4.20/USG to $5.50/USG given greater anticipation of sufficient supply later in the year. Coupled with limited domestic production that decreased from 16.5mn USG in the third quarter to 6.6mn USG in the fourth quarter, the supply of SAF in the US available on a spot basis has dwindled. EU-wide SAF mandates kicked in at 2pc this year, rising to 6pc by 2030. But it is not until 2035 when the obligation hikes up to 20pc — with a 5pc sub-mandate for renewable fuels of non-biological origin — that the region will tip into a short position. The UK is on a similar demand trajectory, going from 2pc this year to 10pc by 2030 and 15pc by 2035, while aiming for a 52pc cap on the SAF total being Hydrotreated Esters and Fatty Acid-based. Combined, this could result in Europe's supply/demand balance going from a 200,000 t/yr surplus in 2030 to a -9.1mn t deficit by 2035, according to Argus Consulting estimates. Given the newly introduced European SAF mandate, air carriers that operate in both regions look to secure volumes at major points of uplift around western Europe. Given the lower supply in the US and fluctuating prices given those changes in supply on the west coast, market activity maintains fixed on the other side of the Atlantic. By Matthew Cope and Amandeep Parmar Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

IMO mulls higher biofuel blend cargoes on Type I ships

25/02/05

IMO mulls higher biofuel blend cargoes on Type I ships

Singapore, 5 February (Argus) — The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is reviewing a proposal on the delivery of biofuel blends of up to 30pc on Type I barges, and is expected to approve this soon, according to several key maritime assessors and classification societies. The proposal, once approved by IMO, is expected to increase B30 bunkering globally as it would allow for the sale of B30 using the current available fleet of IMO Type I oil barges at any port, likely leading to a higher uptake of biofuel blends. B30 is a blend of 70pc very low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) or high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) with 30pc used cooking oil methyl ester (Ucome). The draft circular on the carriage of blends of biofuels and MARPOL Annex I cargoes by conventional bunker ships was accepted by IMO's sub-committee on pollution prevention and response (PPR) during its 12th session from 27-31 January. The draft is expected to be approved at the next Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) 83 meeting to be held from 7-11 April. Details of the 12th PPR meeting had not been published on IMO's website at the time of writing. The International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) is an agreement that covers the prevention of pollution of the marine environment by ships. Annex I covers pollution by oil and oil products carried or operationally used by ships. Type I ships that deliver conventional bunker fuels can currently carry up to 25pc of biofuels under MARPOL Annex I, which has resulted in the adoption of the B24 blend in key ports across Asia, the Middle East and the Mediterranean region in the past few years. B24 consists of 24pc Ucome blended with 76pc fuel oil, which could be either VLSFO or HSFO. IMO has previously stated that Type II chemical tankers should be used for transporting biofuel blends with concentrations higher than 25pc. Shipowners have hence been waiting for the delivery of more Type II tankers, which are currently in limited supply at many ports. Market participants at the key port of Singapore are awaiting the impact of the decision in April. Enquiries for B30 have been surfacing in the past couple of months and refiners, traders, and shipowners are waiting for the outcome from MEPC 83, as well as subsequent decisions by the Maritime and Port Authority (MPA) of Singapore on how this will be implemented in the country, said several Singapore-based market participants. "[We] need to see if MPA agrees to follow IMO," said a key Singapore-based trader. MPA has not responded to a request for comment. The current push for higher biofuel blends comes as shipowners prepare to meet stricter compliance requirements set by IMO's Carbon Intensity Index and EU-led Emissions Trading Scheme and FuelEU Maritime. Demand for alternative marine fuels, especially biofuel blends and LNG, is expected to rise as shipowners look at reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across their fleets. By Mahua Chakravarty Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EU maritime emissions continue to rise: EMSA

25/02/04

EU maritime emissions continue to rise: EMSA

London, 4 February (Argus) — Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the EU's maritime sector have continued to rise since 2015, the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA) found in its 2025 environmental report, although "promising progress" has been made in some areas. Maritime activity was responsible for 26pc of methane emissions and 39pc of NOx emissions in the EU transport sector in 2022, as well as for 14.2pc of CO2 emissions from the sector, the report said. Methane emissions from maritime "at least doubled" from 2018-23, the report found, pushed up by growth in the LNG fleet. NOx emissions rose by 10pc from 2015-23, while CO2 emissions totalled 137mn t in 2022, having risen by 8.5pc from a year earlier. But sulphur oxide (SOx) emissions fell by approximately 70pc in 2023 compared with 2014 levels, EMSA said. This was driven mainly by the implementation of Sulphur Emission Control Areas (SECAs) in the Baltic and North seas, while the tightening of maximum sulphur levels in marine fuel in 2020 further contributed to the fall in SOx emissions. EMSA expects SOx emissions to drop further once a SECA is established in the Mediterranean Sea. And the northeast Atlantic countries may set up an emission control area by 2027. Biofuels are an "immediate, attractive and cost-effective solution" to cutting GHG emissions in the maritime sector, EMSA said. And synthetic and other drop-in fuels, which can be blended with fossil fuels, could help the shipping sector transition to lower emissions. But their costs could prove an obstacle because they are still "significantly higher" than for marine fossil fuels, the report said. Further electrification of ships could assist in decarbonising short-range waterborne transport, the report said. And the establishment of green shipping corridors — zero-emission maritime routes — could further encourage investment in sustainable fuels and supply chains, EMSA added. The EU emissions trading system-financed Innovation Fund has already supported more than 300 shipping projects, the report said, with funding to be deployed out to 2030. By Navneet Vyasan Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Tariffs not only US threat to Canada canola oil

25/02/04

Tariffs not only US threat to Canada canola oil

New York, 4 February (Argus) — Canadian canola farmers have reason to celebrate a last-minute deal to at least delay US tariffs. Changing US biofuel policies, however, could dim their excitement. The two countries agreed Monday to pause for a month 25pc tariffs on most Canadian imports, including agricultural products like canola oil. While best known for its use in food, canola oil has become an increasingly important ingredient in US biofuel production. Canada exported 800,000 lbs of crude canola oil to the US in 2021, before US regulators allowed more canola-based fuels to qualify for a biofuel mandate, but more than three times that total over just 11 months in 2024 according to customs data. Canola oil from all origins made up around 12pc of the US biomass-based diesel feedstock mix last year. The challenge for Canada is that policies in the US that helped cement canola oil's role in biofuel production are increasingly encouraging producers to use other feedstocks. The mere threat of tariffs could speed that trend along. A long-running US tax credit for blenders of biomass-based diesel expired last year and was replaced by the Inflation Reduction Act's "45Z" credit, which requires fuels to meet an initial carbon intensity threshold and then ups the subsidy as emissions fall. This shift was always expected to benefit waste feedstocks over crops, which incur a carbon penalty for land changes and fertilizer use. The clear message to refiners — both from the US government and from California regulators that run the state's influential low-carbon fuel standard — has been to diversify beyond vegetable oils. But an updated emissions model released by the Department of Energy last month surprised some in the industry by assessing the default carbon intensity of canola-based fuels as too high to automatically qualify for 45Z. Although fuels from soybean oil generally earn some credit, diesels made from canola oil could go from earning $1/USG last year to nothing this year. Before even factoring in potential tariffs, Canadian canola oil appears less attractive for refiners than even competing crops. Guidance on 45Z is preliminary , meaning canola crushers can push for final rules that are less restrictive. But energy lobbyists say privately that they do not expect the new administration to act with urgency to implement an incentive created by Democratic lawmakers and oriented around climate change. And many Republicans' concern with the credit is not that it is too harsh on canola — but that it is too permissive of foreign feedstocks they see as hurting US crop demand. The introduction of 45Z could simultaneously leave Canadian biofuel producers less able to backfill canola oil demand if US buyers look elsewhere. The credit can only be claimed by US producers, cutting off subsidies for imported fuels. At the same time, 45Z does not require fuel to be consumed stateside — meaning that US biorefineries can send subsidized fuel abroad to chase additional incentives Canada offers for biofuel usage. "The on-again off-again status of US tariffs and Canada's counter-tariff response do not alter the bare economics of biofuel production between jurisdictions when one has an exportable tax credit and the other does not," said Fred Ghatala, president of Advanced Biofuels Canada. The future of renewable diesel production in Canada, previously expected to grow significantly to the benefit of farmers, is in doubt. ExxonMobil's Canadian subsidiary is on track to open a 20,000 b/d renewable diesel plant this year, but other companies collectively representing more production capacity are wavering. Plans for an integrated canola crush and 15,000 b/d renewable diesel facility in Saskatchewan were paused last month. And it is unclear if Braya Renewable Fuels' 18,000 b/d biorefinery in Newfoundland is running now or if Tidewater Renewables' 3,000 b/d British Columbia plant will run after March. If demand from Canadian biorefineries remains limited, some traders expect that Trump's tariff threats could divert more canola oil previously bound for the US to Europe . But there is no perfect alternative to the US market, which accounted for 91pc of all Canadian canola oil exports in 2023 according to the US Department of Agriculture. "There is logistics capacity to sell canola oil, seed, or meal abroad. That's certainly an option," said Chris Vervaet, executive director of the Canadian Oilseed Processors Association. "The best option though is to continue to maintain and grow our trade relationship with our most important trade partner, which is the United States." By Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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