25/05/15
IEA sees slightly better oil demand outlook
London, 15 May (Argus) — The IEA has nudged up its global oil demand growth
forecasts for this year and 2026, citing better macroeconomic forecasts and the
effects of lower oil prices. In its latest Oil Market Report (OMR), published
today, the Paris-based watchdog raised its projected increase in oil consumption
by 20,000 b/d to 740,000 b/d in 2025, bringing overall demand to 103.9mn b/d. It
increased its oil demand growth forecast for 2026 by 70,000 b/d to 760,000 b/d.
In its previous OMR the IEA cut its oil demand forecasts for 2025 by 310,000 b/d
after the US' announcement of an array of import levies in April. But the IEA
said today the tariff supply shock appeared less severe than initially implied,
pointing to subsequent US trade arrangements with the UK and China. US talks
with other countries continue. "Subsequent pauses, concessions, exemptions and
negotiations are likely to attenuate the levies' permanence and economic
impact," the IEA said. But it said policy uncertainty continued to weigh on
consumer and business sentiment, and it sees oil consumption growth slowing to
650,000 b/d between now until the end of 2025, from 990,000 b/d in the first
quarter of the year. Its demand growth forecast for 2025 is 320,000 b/d lower
than at the start of the year. The IEA increased its global oil supply growth
forecast by 380,000 b/d to 1.61mn b/d in 2025, with almost all the rise
accounted for by the Saudi-led unwinding of Opec+ cuts. It nudged its oil supply
growth forecast for 2026 up by 10,000 b/d to 960,000 b/d. Eight Opec+ members
earlier this month agreed to continue accelerating the pace of their planned
unwinding of 2.2mn b/d of crude production cuts for June. The IEA again revised
down its supply growth forecasts for the US, mainly because of the effects of
lower oil prices on US shale producers. It downgraded US growth by 50,000 b/d to
440,000 b/d for 2025 and by 100,000 b/d to 180,000 b/d for 2026, and said US
tight oil production in 2026 would contract on an annual basis for the first
time since 2020. The IEA said sanctions on Russia, Iran and Venezuela are a key
uncertainty in its forecasts. It noted that Russian crude supply grew by 170,000
b/d in April as crude prices fell below the G7 $60/bl price cap. The IEA's
balances show supply exceeding demand by 730,000 b/d in 2025 and by 930,000 b/d
in 2026. It said global observed stocks rose by 25.1mn bl in March, with
preliminary data showing a further rise in April. By Aydin Calik Send comments
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