US June inflation slows to 1-year low of 3pc

: Metals, Natural gas, Oil products
24/07/11

US inflation slowed in June to the lowest in a year while core inflation hit a more than three-year low, signs of easing price pressures that may prompt Federal Reserve policymakers to begin cutting borrowing costs in the fall.

The consumer price index (CPI) slowed to an annual 3pc in June, lower than economists' estimates for a 3.1pc reading, from 3.3pc in May and 3.4pc in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. So-called core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose by 3.3pc in June, the lowest since April 2021, and slowing from 3.4pc in May.

The energy index rose by an annual 1pc in June, down from 3.7pc in May, while the gasoline index contracted by 2.5pc in June compared with a 2.2pc gain in May. Energy services rose by an annual 4.3pc, slowing from 4.7pc the prior month.

After the report, the CME's FedWatch tool signaled an 81pc probability that the Fed will cut its target rate by a quarter point in September from near 70pc odds Wednesday. Probabilities of three quarter point cuts by December rose to 38pc today from 26pc the prior day.

Food costs rose by 2.2pc in June from 2.1pc the prior month. Shelter rose by 5.2pc from 5.4pc the prior month. Transportation services rose by 9.4pc in June following a 10.5pc gain the prior month. Airline fares fell by 5.1pc in June after a 5.9pc decline.

Headline inflation had risen from 3.1pc in January to as high as 3.5pc in March as economic data, especially job gains, had come in stronger than expected. That had prompted the Federal Reserve to delay widely expected rate cuts as it said it needed "greater confidence" that inflation was on a "sustained" path towards its 2pc target.

The Fed hiked its target rate to a 23-year high of 5.25-5.5pc in July 2023 and has kept it there since to rein in inflation that hit a high of 9.1pc in June 2022. The Fed, in its latest policy meeting last month, penciled in one likely quarter point cut this year, down from three penciled in last March.

CPI contracted by a seasonally adjusted 0.1pc in June from the prior month, after a flat reading in May, a 0.3pc monthly gain in April and 0.4pc gains in February and Marhc. Core CPI was up by 0.1pc for the month after a monthly gain of 0.2pc in May.

By Bob Willis

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25/07/08

Immigration raids pressure south Texas scrap flows

Houston, 8 July (Argus) — South Texas ferrous scrap yards are facing inflow headwinds as increased efforts by US immigration officials to detain and deport non-citizens affect peddler traffic and the labor force. Several market participants speaking to Argus on condition of anonymity have reported a steep decrease in scrap inflows along the US-Mexico border in Texas since the start of President Donald Trump's second term in mid-January due to raids by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents. Sources surveyed by Argus estimated a 25-50pc reduction in scrap being sold to yards in south Texas as a result of the raids, but they struggled to provide a more specific volume of scrap not delivered. Peddler traffic — scrap sold to yards by the public — accounts for a considerable percentage of material acquired by yards in the region, a market participant said. Sources said that many peddlers, as well as some workers at yards, are non-citizens and risk deportation if detained by ICE. The reduction in scrap flows is much larger than what would be seen from peddlers and yard workers who have been detained by ICE or the US Customs and Border Protection agency, they said, and is likely the result of a wider pull back from peddlers, nervous over the risk detention and deportation. Several yards reliant on peddler traffic or undocumented labor have shut in recent weeks, sources familiar with the matter said. ICE has been raiding communities along the border since early in the year when President Donald Trump started his second term. The recently-passed US budget bill allocated $45bn to, in part, hiring "thousands" of new ICE and Border Protection agents. It is unclear how much scrap is sold to US scrap yards by sellers who lack US citizenship, but continued pressure on those sellers and undocumented workers could cause supply tightness and labor shortages in south Texas yards. The monthly Texas ferrous scrap trade is expected to settle today, with several mills bidding all grades flat from June settlements. By Marialuisa Rincon Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

French diesel, HVO customs data mislabelled: Eurostat

25/07/08

French diesel, HVO customs data mislabelled: Eurostat

Barcelona, 8 July (Argus) — French firms have mislabelled imports of 10ppm diesel as hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO) this year, following confusion over new customs codes, EU data service Eurostat has said. The confusion has come about after the introduction of a new import-export (CN) code for HVO that took effect at the start of 2025. Some French data will be restated. A diesel code of 27101943 was discontinued at the end of 2024 and was replaced by 27101944. A new CN code 27101942 for HVO was introduced. HVO is produced by treating vegetable oil with hydrogen, counts against biodiesel blend mandates, but is molecularly separate from biodiesel output by esterification. When customs data for 2025 began to be published at the end of the first quarter, France appeared to be importing large amounts of HVO from Saudi Arabia and the US. Cargoes from the former amounted to around 255,000t in the first quarter. Saudi Arabia has no HVO production known by Argus , nor does it re-export cargoes. It is France's largest diesel supplier. There were also 140,000t labelled as HVO from the US in January-March. But because the EU has anti-dumping and countervailing duties on US HVO imports, shipments of this size appeared questionable. The US is the second biggest diesel supplier to France. The mislabelling has made French and EU HVO traffic difficult to track. It has distorted French diesel import data , which show imports have fallen sharply. Argus first questioned the numbers in March when initial 2025 customs data were released. These queries were rebuffed, but after a follow up in May Eurostat said French customs had "confirmed that there has been an input error". New data will be supplied by France at an unspecified time this year, it said. By Adam Porter Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Tokyo unlikely to yield on car levy despite US pressure

25/07/08

Tokyo unlikely to yield on car levy despite US pressure

Tokyo, 8 July (Argus) — The Japanese government is unlikely to offer concessions to the US for an automobile deal in stalled trade talks between the countries, even after Washington announced plans to raise tariffs on Japanese imports. Each government has its own interests to defend, the country's minister for trade and industry (Meti) Yoji Muto said on 8 July, reiterating that the automobile sector is a key industry for the Japanese economy and is vital to national interests. Muto reiterated Tokyo's intention to pursue a resolution through negotiations, but without compromising its core economic priorities. This suggests that there is little space for Tokyo to accept auto tariffs imposed by the US. This comes after US president Donald Trump announced plans to impose additional tariffs of 25pc on all imports from Japan from 1 August, slightly higher than the initial rate of 24pc set in April. Trump threatened to impose an even higher levy if Tokyo moves to retaliate against the measure. "We have had years to discuss our trading relationship with Japan, and have concluded that we must move away from these long-term, and very persistent, trade deficits engendered by Japan's tariff, and non-tariff policies and trade barriers," Trump said in his official letter to the Japanese government. "Our relationship has been, unfortunately, far from reciprocal." Tokyo and Washington have held seven trade talks on the US tariff since mid-April without reaching an agreement. Japan was initially seen as a frontrunner among other US trading partners in the negotiation, but progress has stalled partly because of disagreements over the auto sector. The Trump administration has long expressed strong dissatisfaction against the imbalance in US-Japan car trade. Japan exported around 1.3mn automobile units to the US market in 2024, and only purchased 14,724 units of US vehicles during the same period, according to Japanese customs and industry group the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, respectively. Tokyo has declined to disclose the details of the ongoing negotiations, but the country's prime minister Shigeru Ishiba in mid-June reiterated that the automobile sector is vital to Japan's national interests, underscoring the car sector as a key sticking point in the trade talks. By Yusuke Maekawa and Kohei Yamamoto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Alberta, Ontario to study oil pipelines, port, rail

25/07/07

Alberta, Ontario to study oil pipelines, port, rail

Calgary, 7 July (Argus) — Alberta and Ontario plan to study new trade routes to boost economic activity between the two provinces and beyond, with an interest in exporting oil and gas through Hudson Bay, leaders said today. Alberta premier Danielle Smith and Ontario premier Doug Ford signed two memorandums of understanding to drive interprovincial trade and major infrastructure development, including pipelines and rail lines. The broad intent is to further connect Alberta's energy resources to Canada's most populous province, and on to foreign partners, using steel from Ontario. "Built using Ontario steel, new pipelines would connect western Canadian oil and gas to existing, and potential, new refineries in southern Ontario," said Ford during a joint press conference in Calgary, Alberta. A "potential" new deep sea port at James Bay on the south side of Hudson Bay in northern Ontario would also enable further export opportunities for land-locked Alberta, which is trying to get more pipelines built before growing oil sands production fill existing capacity. Oil and gas would need to flow across Saskatchewan and Manitoba to get to Ontario. Alberta has taken an all-of-the-above strategy in its pipeline pursuits, calling for more egress in all directions, including enhanced access to Pacific Rim markets via a 1mn b/d bitumen pipeline to British Columbia's (BC) coast. "Having access to the northwest BC coast is essential to being able to get to Asian markets, and that's the one that we hear the most enthusiasm for," said Alberta premier Danielle Smith, who expects to have some "good news" on that front in a few months. Federal regulations need to be undone: premiers Smith and Ford called on the federal government to significantly amend or outright repeal the onerous Impact Assessment Act and other legislation that has stifled investment, including the oil and gas emissions cap, Clean Electricity Regulations and the Oil Tanker Moratorium Act that currently prevents an oil pipeline to BC's northwest coast. "No one will build a pipeline to tidewaters if there is a ban on tankers," said Ford. "It is the craziest thing I've ever heard of . . . a ban on tankers." Ford is the latest premier to side with Alberta's stance on federal oversight after Saskatchewan premier Scott Moe did in June . Ford's automobile , steel and aluminum sectors have been caught in US president Donald Trump's crosshairs, spurring the premier to look elsewhere to shore up trade, including within Canada. But hostilities from south of the border are not new for Ontario, whose refining sector relies on Enbridge's 540,000 b/d Line 5 cross-border pipeline. "We have the governor of Michigan constantly threatening to close down the pipeline," said Ford. "Do you know the disaster that would create in Ontario?" To both kickstart a lagging economy and pivot away from the US, Canadian prime minister Mark Carney fast-tracked Bill C-5 through Parliament last month to allow "nation building" projects to bypass regulatory hurdles. To be considered for the new "National Interest Projects" list, a project should strengthen Canada's autonomy, provide economic benefits, have a high likelihood of completion, be in the interests of Indigenous groups, and contribute to meeting Canada's climate change objectives. "The days of relying on the United States 100pc, they're done, they're gone," said Ford. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Nigeria’s imports of European gasoline hit record low

25/07/07

Nigeria’s imports of European gasoline hit record low

London, 7 July (Argus) — Nigerian imports of European gasoline fell to a record low in June, according to Kpler tracking data, as rising output from the country's 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery sharply reduced demand for the product from the EU, UK and Norway. The drop in Nigerian buying pulled overall west African imports of European gasoline to a four-month low of 926,000t, down from 1.315mn t in May and 20pc lower year-on-year. Nigeria, long the region's largest gasoline importer, slipped behind Togo last month as the Dangote refinery hit its highest monthly run rate since coming online. The country is approaching a turning point in its gasoline trade balance. June arrivals into Nigeria from Europe fell by 56pc on the month to 231,000t — the lowest recorded by Kpler. It also imported 28,000t from offshore Lome and 12,000t from Houston, leaving a total of 271,000t. At the same time, Dangote loaded a record 252,000t of gasoline for export last month. This included 90,000t aboard the Pis Kerinci to Sohar, Oman; 89,000t on the Hafnia Larissa to Pasir Gudang, Malaysia; 35,000t on the Sabaek to Abidjan, Ivory Coast; and a further 39,000t aboard the Sabaek , which has yet to discharge. The country could be on the verge of flipping to net exporter status, given the Dangote refinery has "extra plant capacity to produce gasoline", according to Dangote Group executive director Edwin Devakumar. The plant's naphtha hydrotreating unit has "flexibility to achieve additional production", and Dangote has recently begun buying naphtha to support gasoline output, he said. The fall in Nigerian demand for gasoline imports, combined with weaker-than-expected US consumption, is raising concerns over outlet options for European gasoline this summer, a European trader told Argus . Europe remains a large net exporter of the product. Benchmark non-oxy gasoline barge cracks to front-month Ice Brent crude futures averaged $14.73/bl between 1–4 July, broadly steady on the year and slightly up from $14.62/bl in the same period of 2024. By George Maher-Bonnett Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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US June inflation slows to 1-year low of 3pc

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Alberta, Ontario to study oil pipelines, port, rail

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