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Key Opec+ panel gives no clues on plan to unwind cut

  • : Crude oil
  • 24/08/01

The ministerial committee that oversees compliance with Opec+ oil production policy made no recommendations for the group to change course at its virtual meeting today. But crucially, the committee also gave no hints as to whether a gradual unwinding of up to 2.2mn b/d of supply reductions will start in October as planned.

The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), which now meets every two months to oversee compliance with crude output pledges and study market dynamics, gave little away about its view of current supply and demand balances or where it sees the market through to the end of the year. The meeting took place against a backdrop of weakening oil prices over the past month, although the twin assassinations of key leaders of the Iran-backed Hezbollah and Hamas militant groups in Lebanon and Tehran, respectively, over the past 48 hours has reversed some of those losses.

Front-month Ice Brent futures are now trading at around $81.50/bl, up from around $78/bl two days ago but still well down on the $86.50/bl at the start of July.

Today's JMMC meeting was the last one scheduled before a sub-group of eight Opec+ countries, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, must decide whether to go ahead with a plan to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of extra voluntary supply cuts that they have been implementing since January. The plan — to begin returning the barrels over a 12-month period starting in October — was announced at the last full ministerial Opec+ meeting in June. But it is not a foregone conclusion.

At the June meeting, key Opec+ ministers, including Saudi Arabia's Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, were at pains to stress that the production increase could be paused or reversed depending on market conditions. It was one of several decisions taken that day relating to three separate production cuts that the group has been carrying out since the start of 2023, amounting to a nominal 5.9mn b/d in total.

If the 2.2mn b/d cut is unwound as planned, the collective output target of the eight countries would increase by 540,000 b/d over October-December this year and by another 1.92mn b/d over the first nine months of next year. That factors in a 300,000 b/d increase that the UAE has secured to its 2025 production allowance, which will be phased in between January and September next year.

Tough decisions

The JMMC reiterated today that "the gradual phase-out of the voluntary reduction of oil production could be paused or reversed, depending on prevailing market conditions". In essence, this is an assurance that the group of eight, dubbed "the great eight" by UAE energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei, will only return those barrels if there is space in the market to do so.

With lingering question marks on the prospects for Chinese oil demand growth this year, a relatively soft summer driving season in the US and strong supply growth from producers outside Opec+, the eight countries may need to consider delaying production increases.

The JMMC also once again underlined the importance of member countries fully complying with their output pledges, noting last week's submission by Iraq, Kazakhstan and Russia of plans detailing how they intend to compensate for producing above target in the first half of 2024.

The JMMC is due to meet next on 2 October, but a decision on whether to begin unwinding the 2.2mn b/d will likely be communicated early next month.


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25/02/05

Equinor Norwegian gas output up on year in 2024

Equinor Norwegian gas output up on year in 2024

London, 5 February (Argus) — Norwegian state-controlled Equinor's gas output on the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS) edged up on the year, driven by record-high output from the giant Troll field and fewer unplanned outages at NCS assets, the firm said on Wednesday. The firm's Norwegian gas output rose by 4pc on the year to 758,000 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) or 107mn m³/d in 2024. This was driven by "strong contributions" from the Troll and Johan Sverdrup fields, Equinor said. Gas production from Troll — in which Equinor holds a 31pc stake — reached an all-time high last year at roughly 116mn m³/d, the Norwegian producer has said. And there were fewer "unplanned losses" on the NCS last year than in 2023, Equinor said. The firm was the largest producer on the NCS in 2023, accounting for more than a third of total gas output on the shelf, the latest available data from the Norwegian Offshore Directorate show. Equinor's global gas output rose by 2pc to 985,000 boe/d or 139mn m³/d last year. But the firm's combined oil and gas global output was slightly lower in 2024, with a small increase in gas production insufficient to offset lower liquids output. Equinor's equity liquids production was 1.08mn boe/d in 2024, down by 3pc on the year. Equinor expects "more than 10pc growth from 2024-27" in oil and gas production, reaching a peak at 2.3mn boe/d in 2027. And the firm estimated that hydrocarbons output would grow by 4pc from 2024 to 2025. Equinor's reported Norwegian gas prices dropped by 22pc on the year to $9.47/mn Btu, or €31.01/MWh, in 2024, using Wednesday's exchange rate. And the average reported price for its US gas decreased by 4pc to $1.70/mn Btu, or €5.57/MWh. Equinor made a profit of $8.83bn in 2024, down by 26pc on the year. Profit was $1.99bn in the fourth quarter, 23pc lower on the year. The company has cut its 2030 expected renewables capacity to 10-12GW, from 12-16GW, noting that the pace of the energy transition is slower in some markets. It did not give a new target for capital expenditure allocation to this sector. Equinor also modified some net carbon intensity goals, setting ranges rather than absolute targets. By Georgia Gratton and Jana Cervinkova Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Equinor scales back renewables plan


25/02/05
25/02/05

Equinor scales back renewables plan

London, 5 February (Argus) — Norwegian state-controlled Equinor said today it has cut by up to 25pc its target for renewables capacity by 2030, and abandoned a plan to allocate half its capital expenditure (capex) to low carbon projects by that same year. The company has cut its 2030 expected renewables capacity to 10-12GW, from 12-16GW, noting that the pace of the energy transition is slower in some markets. It did not give a new target for capex allocation to this sector. Equinor also modified some net carbon intensity goals, setting ranges rather than absolute targets. It now plans to reduce net carbon intensity — which includes scope 3 emissions, from sold products — by 15-20pc by 2030 and by 30-40pc by 2035, from a 2019 baseline. The previous targets were at the higher end of these ranges. Equinor made a profit of $8.83bn in 2024, down by 26pc on the year. Profit was $1.99bn in the fourth quarter, lower on the year by 23pc. The company's oil and gas output was slightly lower in 2024, with a small increase in gas production not quite offsetting lower liquids output. Equinor's equity liquids production was 1.08mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) in 2024, down by 3pc on the year, and its equity gas production rose by 2pc to 985,000 boe/d over the same timeframe. It expects "more than 10pc growth from 2024-27" in oil and gas production, and estimated that hydrocarbons output would grow by 4pc from 2024 to 2025. Liquids and gas prices fell in 2024. Equinor's reported Norwegian and US gas prices rose by 5pc and 26pc, respectively, on the year in the October-December period, but this was not enough to assuage a decrease across the year. The average reported price for its Norwegian gas dropped by 22pc on the year to $9.47/mn Btu in 2024, and the average reported price for its US gas decreased by 4pc to $1.70/mn Btu. Equinor reported an average liquids price of $74.1/bl in 2024, 1pc lower on the year. Its reported fourth-quarter 2024 liquids price fell by 10pc from the same period in 2023, to $68.5/bl. Equinor's power generation rose in 2024, boosted by additions in Brazil and Poland in 2023 and the start of the 531MW Mendubim solar plant in Brazil in 2024. Equinor's share of power generation stood at 4,917GWh in 2024, up by 19pc on the year — but its renewables share rose faster, by 51pc to 2,935GWh. Equinor has maintained its target of 30mn-50mn t/yr of CO2 storage by 2035. Equinor trimmed 600,000 t/CO2 equivalent (CO2e) from its absolute scope 1 and 2 — or operational — emissions over 2023-4. Scope 1 and 2 emissions from its operated production stood at 11mn t/CO2e in 2024. The company's upstream carbon intensity fell to 6.2kg CO2/boe in 2024, down by 7.5pc on the year. Equinor will buy back $5bn of shares in 2025, having bought $6bn in 2024. It completed the fourth $1.6bn tranche of its 2024 programme on 14 January and will launch the first tranche — of up to $1.2bn — of its 2025 programme on 6 February. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump proposes US take control of Gaza


25/02/05
25/02/05

Trump proposes US take control of Gaza

Washington, 4 February (Argus) — US president Donald Trump on Tuesday called for the US to take over Gaza, relocate the population of more than 2mn to other countries and then redevelop the enclave. Meeting with Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House, the one-time real estate developer sketched out a plan in which the US would "own" Gaza, level what has become a "demolition site" and remake the territory into the "Riviera of the Middle East". Assuming such a role would embroil the US far more deeply in what has been the deadliest conflict in the region in decades. Asked whether US troops would be involved in his plan, Trump said: "If it's necessary, we'll do that." Trump did not say where, exactly, the Palestinians from Gaza would be relocated, although he said he had a "feeling, despite them saying no" that Jordan's King Abdullah and Egyptian president Abdel Fattah el-Sisi "will open their hearts and will give us the kind of land we need to get this done". Trump said the only reason people want to return to their homes in Gaza is because they believe they have no alternative. Instead, they could be relocated and "live in comfort and peace". And after the rebuilding is completed, people from "all over the world" would live in the new Gaza — "Palestinians also," Trump said. Netanyahu praised Trump for his "willingness to puncture conventional thinking" and to propose ideas that could reshape the Middle East. "You cut to the chase," Netanyahu told Trump during the press conference. "You see things others refuse to see. You say things others refuse to say. And after their jaws drop, people scratch their heads. And they say, ‘You know. He's right.'" But Saudi Arabia's foreign ministry, in an apparent reaction to Trump's proposal, Tuesday argued the international community has a responsibility to alleviate the suffering of the Palestinian people "who will remain steadfast on their land and will not move from it". By David Ivanovich Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexican peso volatility persists despite tariff delay


25/02/04
25/02/04

Mexican peso volatility persists despite tariff delay

Mexico City, 4 February (Argus) — The Mexican peso remains volatile despite a bump from the last-minute deal postponing US President Donald Trump's threatened 25pc tariffs on Mexican imports, financial analysts said. The US agreed Monday to delay the tariffs for one month after discussions between Trump and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum. In return, Mexico pledged to deploy 10,000 National Guard troops to its northern border to combat drug trafficking, with a focus on fentanyl. The peso initially reacted positively to the news, strengthening by nearly 3pc late Monday after the agreement was announced. Still, today the Mexican peso weakened 0.4pc to Ps20.5 to the dollar by the end of trading, according to data from Mexico's Central Bank (Banxico). The peso has depreciated 16.6pc against the dollar from a year ago, according to Banxico data. The currency will remain volatile until there is greater clarity on whether tariffs will ultimately be imposed and at what level, BBVA Mexico bank analysts said in a note. If the US proceeds with a 25pc tariff, the peso could weaken to Ps24/$1, pushing Mexico's economy into a 1.5pc contraction this year, according to the bank. A lower 10pc tariff would be more manageable, BBVA Mexico added, as peso depreciation would offset some cost increases for US importers. In that scenario, Mexico's economy could still grow by 1pc in 2025. "Markets have debated whether to take Trump's policy promises seriously but not literally, or both seriously and literally," Barclays analysts wrote in a note to investors. Barclays also noted that the US sees itself as having the upper hand in any trade war, as a far greater share of Canadian and Mexican exports depend on US demand than vice versa. Mexico's state-owned oil company Pemex typically benefits from peso depreciation because of its US dollar-denominated crude exports, which help offset higher fuel import costs. "Pemex's revenues are tied to international oil prices, providing a natural hedge," the company said in its latest earnings report. However, analysts warned that Pemex's shift toward domestic refining over exports could reduce this buffer, leaving the company more vulnerable to foreign exchange swings, particularly as it carries a large dollar-denominated debt load. By Édgar Sígler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Baghdad, Erbil take steps to restart Kurdish oil flows


25/02/04
25/02/04

Baghdad, Erbil take steps to restart Kurdish oil flows

Dubai, 4 February (Argus) — Iraq's oil ministry has officially asked the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to start delivering oil to state marketer Somo as part of a deal reached between Baghdad and Erbil to restart north Iraqi crude oil exports through the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. "The Turkish and Iraqi governments are taking the steps to prepare the Iraq-Turkey pipeline [ITP] to export crude through the port of Ceyhan," Iraq's oil minister Hayan Abdulghani told state news agency INA. He said that no less than 300,000 b/d of the Iraqi semi-autonomous Kurdish region's crude will be exported once the pipeline is back in operation. "The debts owed by the Kurdistan region are being agreed upon between the two parties," he added. Abdulghani did not provide an official date for the resumption of exports. Iraq's oil ministry has been approached for comment. But his remarks signal that a restart of the country's northern crude is close, made possible by Iraq's parliament approving a key budget amendment on 2 February that will see oil companies operating in the semi-autonomous Kurdish region get $16/bl for their production and transportation costs , double the previous rate. As part of the amendment, an international consulting firm will be tasked with auditing Kurdish production and transportation costs over a 60-day period. Iraq's federal oil ministry and its KRG counterpart will co-ordinate on appointing the auditor but if they fail to reach agreement, the Iraqi government will make the selection unilaterally. Opec+ commitments Disagreement between Baghdad and the KRG over commercial terms has prevented the resumption of Kurdish crude exports have yet to resume from Ceyhan after the pipeline linking the port with oil fields in northern Iraq was closed by Turkey in March 2023. The closure followed an international arbitration ruling that said Turkey had breached a bilateral agreement with Iraq by allowing KRG crude to be exported without Baghdad's consent. While the resumption of oil flows via Ceyhan should give the Iraqi oil ministry more visibility on how much crude is being produced in the Kurdistan region, Baghdad may still find itself in a dilemma as regards its Opec+ commitments. Iraq has been the biggest overproducer in Opec+ for over a year, and officials there have said a lack of visibility about output from the northern region has complicated its efforts to comply. Baghdad will now have to balance its own production alongside that of Erbil, while ensuring it adheres to its Opec+ quota and its compensation commitments. Opec+ has come under pressure as US President Donald Trump recently called for the producer group to "bring down the cost of oil". But so far, Opec+ has not heeded those calls with its key ministerial panel agreeing on 3 February to keep its policy as is, meaning it would not see any production returned to market until at least April. By Bachar Halabi Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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