California CARB ULSD prices hit multi-year lows

: Biofuels, Oil products
24/08/05

Outright California CARB diesel prices are at nearly 31-month lows following a narrowing in Los Angeles differentials and the underlying Nymex ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD) contract last week.

Front-month outright prices in Los Angeles closed at $2.20/USG on 2 August, the lowest level since December 2021, after a 4pc downturn in the Nymex ULSD contract and a 2¢/USG weekly dip in differentials as August volume was heard traded lower.

Overall ULSD liquidity remained muted in San Francisco, but Friday's Nymex loss pressured outright cash prices to $2.14/USG, also the lowest level since December 2021.

California refiners had nearly doubled CARB diesel production in the week ended 26 July and averaged 193,000 b/d, according to latest data from the California Energy Commission (CEC) released on 1 August. The uptick fueled a 1.6pc increase in the state's total diesel inventory, to 2.9mn bl, despite a concurrent 38pc drop in output of other diesel fuels — a category including high-sulphr, non-California EPA and renewable diesel.

By Jasmine Davis

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25/02/06

Crude Summit: Asset-backed oil trades on the rise

Houston, 6 February (Argus) — Asset-backed trading is becoming commonplace in the oil industry as companies up and down the supply chain bring capabilities in-house, delegates heard at the Argus Americas Crude Summit in Houston, Texas, today. "Traditionally, long term hedging was popular, and it still is, but in general we've seen a move towards the front end of the curve," said CME Group's managing director and global head of energy and environmental products Peter Keavey. "The risks are really in the prompt," said Keavy. "We're seeing a lot of hedging in the short term [and] that also is reflective of asset-based optimization." HC Group managing partner Paul Chapman has also noticed a continued shift in trading by banks, which either exited or scaled down operations in 2014 and 2015, to those directly in the industry. "I would argue that pretty much every single business around the world — producer, miner, refiner, retailer of fuels and major — is on some spectrum of developing some asset trading," said Chapman. "And it's driven by a need to capture more margin." Changing trade flows have naturally had a bearing on who becomes more involved in individual markets. "Over the past five years, European players have more and more exposure to US molecules, whether it be crude oil or natural gas," said Keavey, which has driven the growth of trade of WTI, RBOB, gasoline, and heating oil in international markets. Changing energy policy, and policies to reach other political objectives, have a tendency to shape energy flows, whether they are intended or not, the speakers said. The Russian-Ukraine conflict is a prime example, and there are clear signs that US president Donald Trump's second term in office will do the same. "As this world gets more shaped by trade wars and there's more and more government intervention, that itself starts to break down some of the fundamentals of how some of these markets work," said Chapman. Keavey expects Canadian crude to continue to flow even under a Canada-US trade war, but "the question is, what disruption happens to the pricing?" By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico factory activity weakens in Jan

25/02/06

Mexico factory activity weakens in Jan

Mexico City, 6 February (Argus) — Mexico's manufacturing sector contracted further in January, according to the latest purchasing managers index (PMI) survey from the finance executive association IMEF. Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs decreased for a second month in January, falling deeper into contraction territory. "Mexico's economy began 2025 with no growth at all," said IMEF, "with the outlook made highly uncertain moving forward by US President Donald Trump's first actions in office." While Trump's proposed tariffs remain on hold, IMEF warned they could severely impact Mexico's economy by further stalling growth and triggering inflation. The manufacturing PMI dropped to 45.6 from 47.5 in December, marking its tenth consecutive month below the 50-point expansion threshold. Manufacturing, which accounts for about a fifth of Mexico's economy, is led by the auto sector, contributing about 18pc of manufacturing GDP. Within the manufacturing PMI, the new orders index dropped 3.5 points to 42.9 and deeper into contraction. Similarly, production fell 3.0 points to 42.8. Employment held at 47.4 in January, now in contraction for 12 consecutive months. The non-manufacturing PMI — covering services and commerce — declined again, slipping to 49.1 in January from 49.6 in December. New orders dropped 1.9 points to 47.9, production fell 1.4 points to 47.1 and employment held at 48.7. IMEF further raised concerns over Mexico's trade and services sectors — key drivers of Mexico's post-pandemic recovery, noting a recent loss of momentum. The group added this may have implications on the non-manufacturing PMI with its associated sub-components "on the verge of contraction". By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Ethanol prices up on uncertainty, low margins in Feb

25/02/06

Ethanol prices up on uncertainty, low margins in Feb

London, 6 February (Argus) — Spot ethanol prices in northwest Europe firmed to a six-month high at the start of February after several months of remaining largely steady. The minimum 64pc greenhouse gas (GHG) savings ethanol spot price reached €700/m³ on 4 February, its highest since 2 August 2024. Despite this, participants are reporting ample supply in the region, sufficient to meet current demand. The gains are largely attributed to a closed arbitrage with the US, higher production costs and ongoing uncertainty surrounding potential US tariffs. Some market participants believe the price rise in the ARA region is partially driven by higher ethanol prices in the US, which have been supported by rising corn prices . These participants said European prices may have tracked US price gains given the closed arbitrage with the country, with expectations that the arbitrage between the regions will reopen as a result of higher ethanol prices in ARA. Looking ahead, some market participants predict that ethanol imports will be reduced in the second quarter, which has caused the ethanol forward curve to shift into contango, with prices peaking at €711/m³ for the second quarter on 5 February. Trump tariffs turmoil Participants said prices are also being supported by uncertainty surrounding US president Donald Trump's plans to impose tariffs on imports from the EU. The European Commission said this week it will respond "firmly" should Trump "unfairly or arbitrarily" impose tariffs on EU goods. Trump made a similar complaint about the UK, but said he thinks "that one can be worked out". Retaliatory tariffs from the EU could affect ethanol flows, as the EU is a net importer of fuel ethanol. It imported almost 69,000t of undenatured ethanol — usually used for road fuel blending in most EU member states — from the US in January-November 2024, according to provisional EU customs data. The UK imported almost 600,000t of ethanol during the same period. The UK can leverage favourable arbitrage opportunities to import ethanol from the US and redirect it to the EU. Producers face higher costs Argus calculations show ethanol production margins for corn and wheat at €168.69/m³ and at €146.71/m³ on 5 February, down from €223.56/m³ and €205.33/m³ a year ago. Variable costs of yeasts, enzymes, chemicals and denaturants are not included in these calculations. Market participants said producers continue to adjust to a poor 2024-25 harvest season in Eastern Europe, caused by unfavourable weather conditions in Ukraine and France. Higher feedstock costs have contributed to higher ethanol prices, although the production margins are still tighter than last year. In Ukraine, Europe's largest wheat exporter excluding Russia, Argus forecasts wheat production will drop to 22.3mn t during 2024-25 , down from a five-year average of 24.7mn t. Corn supply from the country for 2024-25 is projected to fall to 22.9mn t, down from 31.5mn t in the previous season, according to Argus data. France — Europe's largest producer of ethanol — has cut its wheat production outlook for 2024-25 because of wet weather. Rainfall in other parts of Europe has affected corn toxin levels, potentially leading to poorer quality ethanol. This is likely to weigh on ethanol output in 2025 as it will strain feedstock supplies, push production costs up and squeeze margins for producers. More recently, European market participants said a late-winter cold snap may affect winter crops in Ukraine, and if so, strain feedstock supplies and push ethanol production costs up further. It comes as markets are still waiting for an update on level 2 in the nomenclature of territorial units for statistics GHG emission values, the so called Nuts 2 values. Biofuel producer Archer Daniels Midland expects ethanol profit margins to narrow this year, after posting wider margins in the fourth quarter. The company expects ethanol margins to drop to break-even in the first quarter on higher industry run rates, even as robust demand for exports from the US supports improved volumes, it said. ADM is one of the largest exporters of ethanol to Europe, according to those in the market. By Evelina Lungu Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

BP puts Gelsenkirchen refinery in Germany up for sale

25/02/06

BP puts Gelsenkirchen refinery in Germany up for sale

Hamburg, 6 February (Argus) — BP said today it will begin seeking buyers for its Ruhr Oel business, which includes the 257,800 b/d Gelsenkirchen refinery and an associated petrochemicals plant in western Germany. The UK company hopes to reach a sales agreement in 2025, although the exact timing will depend on approval of local competition authorities, it said. The sale should have no affect on short-term supply of oil products in western Germany as the refinery will keep up normal production in the interim, the company said in a press release. BP had said it planned to downsize Gelsenkirchen , shutting four unitsand reducing its crude capacity by a third. The shutdown of the affected units is scheduled for the end of the 2025 and will go ahead, BP told Argus . Potential buyers are not yet known. BP is the latest in a series of companies looking to sell or reduce their refinery shares in Germany. Shell is still searching for a buyer for its 37.5pc stake in the PCK consortium's 226,000 b/d Schwedt refinery, in eastern Germany, after a sale to UK energy firm Prax fell through in late December. Shell was also in discussions to sell its 32.25pc stake in the Miro's consortium's 310,000 b/d Karlsruhe refinery to czech company MERO CR in 2024, which did not result in a sales agreement. Shell is further on track to shut down the Wesseling plant at its 334,000 b/d Rhineland refinery complex. Russian state-controlled Rosneft intends to sell its German subsidiaries, Rosneft Deutschland and RN Refining & Marketing, which are held under the trusteeship of the Federal Network Agency. These assets include a controlling stake in the PCK joint venture, a 24pc share in the Miro's consortium and a 28.6pc share in the Bayernoil joint venture, operator of the 207,000 b/d Neustadt-Vohburg refinery in Bavaria. ExxonMobil announced its intention to sell its 25pc stake in the Karlsruhe refinery to Austria's Alcmene, a subsidiary of Estonia's Liwathon, in 2023. The sale fell through in July 2024 after a German court upheld a ruling banning the company from selling its stakes in the Miro consortium following an injunction filed by Shell. BP also operates the 95,000 b/d Lingen refinery in western Germany. This is unaffected by the sale plan for Gelsenkirchen. By Natalie Müller Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

'Self-healing' road material could slow bitumen demand

25/02/06

'Self-healing' road material could slow bitumen demand

London, 6 February (Argus) — Researchers in the UK said they have developed a "self-healing" road paving material that mends its own cracks without the need for maintenance. The new material could offer a solution to the UK's pothole problem, according to Swansea University, which has spearheaded the research alongside colleagues at King's College London and the University of Biobio in Chile. The cost of pothole maintenance in England and Wales is estimated at £143.5mn/yr ($179mn/yr), according to the UK's Asphalt Industry Alliance (AIA). The self-healing asphalt contains natural spores of a chemically treated moss. When compressed, the spores release oils produced from recycled waste tyres, which fill in any damage sustained to the paving material. Laboratory trials have shown the material is able to heal a microcrack in its surface in less than an hour. The material could reduce how often roads need repairs, cutting bitumen demand. But it is unlikely to be widely commercialised any time soon because it is has not yet undergone technical and environmental assessments and it remains unclear how production can be scaled up. UK transport secretary Louise Haigh pledged in October last year to fix a "pothole plague" as part of government plans to repair up to 1mn more potholes a year. Real-term cuts in local authority road maintenance budgets in England and Wales have led to a deterioration in road surfaces, according to the AIA's latest annual survey . By Tim van Gardingen Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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