Latest market news

Opec downgrades oil demand growth forecasts

  • : Crude oil
  • 24/08/12

For the first time, Opec has downgraded its global oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025.

In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR), the group has revised down its demand growth projection for 2024 to 2.11mn b/d from 2.25mn b/d, having previously kept the forecast for this year unchanged since it was first released in July 2023.

Opec put the revision primarily down to "softening expectations for China's oil demand growth" and actual data received for the first half of the year. It now sees Chinese oil demand growing by 700,000 b/d this year, down by 60,000 b/d compared with last month's report.

Opec has also cut its oil demand growth forecast for next year by 60,000 b/d to 1.78mn b/d, driven by a lower than previously expected rise in Middle East consumption.

The group's latest oil demand growth projections narrow the gap with other forecasters such as the IEA and EIA, but Opec's figures are still comparatively bullish. The IEA projects oil demand will increase by 970,000 b/d this year, while the EIA sees demand rising by 1.1mn b/d. Opec notes that its new growth forecast of 2.11mn b/d for this year is "well above the historical average of 1.4mn b/d seen prior to the Covid-19 pandemic".

Opec puts recent oil price falls down to sentiment "driven by speculative selloffs, easing geopolitical risk premiums and mixed economic indicators". Sentiment was also affected by uncertainty surrounding high interest rates in the US, concerns about China's economy and oil demand growth, as well as a slower-than-expected onset of the driving season, it said.

On the supply side, the group has kept its non-Opec+ liquids growth estimate for 2024 and 2025 unchanged at 1.23mn b/d and 1.10mn b/d, respectively. It said non-Opec+ growth for 2024 would be mostly driven by the US, Canada and Brazil.

Opec+ crude production — including Mexico — rose by 117,000 b/d b/d to 40.907mn b/d in July, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus. This is around 2.09mn b/d below Opec's projected call on Opec+ crude for this year, which it sees at 43mn b/d.


Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

24/10/08

September was second hottest: EU's Copernicus

September was second hottest: EU's Copernicus

London, 8 October (Argus) — Last month was the second hottest September on record globally, after September 2023, with average temperatures 0.73°C higher than the 1991-2020 average for the month, according to data from the EU climate-monitoring service Copernicus. Last month's average temperatures globally were 1.54°C above pre-industrial (1850-1900) levels and September's average was the 14th month in a 15-month period when the global average surface air temperature was more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The global average temperature for the 12 months to September was the second highest on record for any 12-month period — 0.74°C above the 1991-2020 average, and an estimated 1.62°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. The January–September 2024 global-average temperature was 0.71°C above the 1991-2020 average, the highest on record for the period and 0.19°C warmer than the same period in 2023. It is almost certain that 2024 will turn out to be the warmest year on record, Copernicus said. The average temperature over European land for September 2024 was 1.74°C above the 1991-2020 average for September, making it the second warmest September on record for Europe after September 2023, which was 2.51°C above average. Last month also had exceptionally high rainfall levels across much of the continent, with widespread floods across central Europe. Last year was the hottest on record , averaging 1.45°C above pre-industrial temperatures. By Gavin Attridge Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

CNRL to buy Chevron's Canadian oil sands, shale: Update


24/10/07
24/10/07

CNRL to buy Chevron's Canadian oil sands, shale: Update

New York, 7 October (Argus) — Canadian Natural Resources (CNRL) agreed to buy a 20pc stake in the Athabasca Oil Sands Project (AOSP) and 70pc interest in the Duvernay shale from Chevron for $6.5bn, extending its lead as Canada's top producer. The all-cash transaction has an effective date retroactive to 1 September, the companies said Monday. Closing is expected during the fourth quarter. The assets being sold accounted for about 84,000 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) of production, net of royalties, to Chevron last year. Chevron last October announced plans to acquire US independent Hess for $53bn, pledging to sell $10bn-$15bn of assets by 2028. While the Hess deal has been delayed by a mid-2025 arbitration hearing, Chevron, the second-largest US oil producer, has increasingly focused its attention on the Permian shale basin of west Texas and southeastern New Mexico, as well as an expansion project in Kazakhstan. CNRL's acquisition bolsters its position as Canada's largest petroleum producer after pumping out 1.29mn boe/d of oil and gas in the second quarter this year. About 72pc came from oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs), with the balance from natural gas. CNRL anticipates the oil sands and Duvernay assets will lift the company's production profile by about 122,500 boe/d in 2025. About half, or 62,500 b/d, will come in the form of synthetic crude oil produced from AOSP's 320,000 b/d Scotford upgrader near Edmonton, Alberta. The upgrader is fed diluted bitumen piped from the Muskeg River and Jackpine mines in the oil sands region. The deal would increase CNRL's stake in AOSP to 90pc. Calgary-based CNRL first made its foray into AOSP in 2017 when it bought a 70pc stake from Shell and Marathon Oil Canada for $9.75bn ($C$12.74bn). Muskeg River and Jackpine are adjacent to the company's fully owned Horizon mine and upgrader, and the increase in ownership may allow for increased synergies between the two assets, according to executives. "It allows for a little bit more ease in terms of governance on the asset," CNRL president Scott Stauth said Monday on an investor call. "I can see us utilizing the equipment more effectively between the two sites." Undeveloped oil sands projects Also included in Monday's deal are additional stakes in undeveloped oil sands leases that CNRL could tap as it works through its reserves. This includes a 20pc increase the Pierre River project that would provide CNRL with 90pc ownership; a 60pc increase in the Ells River project that would lift the company's stake to 90pc; a 33pc increase in the Saleski project, for 83pc; and a 6pc working interest in Namur that would reach 65pc. Reserves from Pierre River could be used to extend the life of the Horizon project as the North Mine depletes. A standalone facility there is also possible, but would require a significant capital outlay, CNRL executives said. CNRL in May said it was considering a massive 195,000 b/d increase to its Horizon production using two new technologies. CNRL said production from the light oil and liquids rich assets in the Duvernay is expected to average 60,000 boe/d in 2025, half of which would be natural gas. CNRL anticipates pushing production to 70,000 boe/d by 2027 with more than 340 locations already identified as candidates for drilling. With WTI above $70/bl, "this is a very attractive acquisition for us," CNRL chief financial officer Mark Stainthorpe said. CNRL has been actively acquiring assets in recent years. The company purchased Canadian assets belonging to Painted Pony in 2020, Devon Energy in 2019, TotalEnergies in 2018 and Cenovus Energy in 2017, among other deals. By Stephen Cunningham and Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump, Harris run on competing visions for energy


24/10/07
24/10/07

Trump, Harris run on competing visions for energy

Washington, 7 October (Argus) — Energy has emerged as a centrepiece in the US presidential race between Republican candidate former president Donald Trump and Democratic candidate vice-president Kamala Harris, who have repeatedly fought over whose policies would keep domestic energy prices affordable now and in the future. Trump has promised a return to the policies he championed during his first presidential term, when he opened vast tracts of federal land to oil and gas leasing, scrapped rules that would support electric vehicles (EVs), and halted any serious attempts for the federal government to respond to climate change. Trump has embraced "drill, baby, drill" as a core policy plank, which he argues will be an elixir to voters frustrated with inflation and high prices. Vice-president Harris backs an "all-of-the-above" energy policy, her running mate Tim Walz says, and has a further goal to turn the US into a global powerhouse for the types of clean energy manufacturing and EVs that will be needed to make a difference on climate change. But Harris' remark in 2019 that there is "no question I'm in favour of banning fracking" has come to haunt her campaign, despite saying she has dropped that position. Harris says her experience serving as vice-president has shown her that banning fracking was not needed to support a clean energy economy. "As vice-president, I did not ban fracking. As president, I will not ban fracking," she says. Even so, Trump has tried to sow doubts among voters that Harris is sincere in her new position, which he hopes will cost her in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, a key shale gas producer that accounts for 20pc of US natural gas output. "If she won the election, the day after that election, they'll go back to destroying our country and oil will be dead," Trump says. But Trump's promises on oil and gas — and his attacks on the policies of the Biden-Harris administration — have at times borne little resemblance to reality. Trump claims that if he had won a second term in 2020, oil production would be "four times, five times higher", translating into US crude production in excess of 50mn b/d, or more than half of global production. Trump also says that, if elected, he would cut the price of energy "in half or more within a year of taking office", double electricity production and bring gasoline prices below $2/USG. He will do this through "a national emergency declaration" that will cause a "massive increase" in energy supply, Trump says, although energy analysts say his promises are technically and economically unachievable. Trump's oft-repeated claim that US oil and gas production crashed after he left office is also undercut by basic energy statistics, as is his claim that the US has lost the "energy dominance" it had during his term. The US hit record-high production this year, in excess of 13mn b/d of crude and 100bn ft³/d (1 trillion m³/yr) of gas, while US net petroleum exports climbed to a record high of 1.7mn b/d last year. Regulatory rollback Trump has campaigned heavily on rolling back regulations and cutting energy prices, which he says will persuade manufacturers to "pack up and move their production to America". For every new regulation, he promises to remove "10 old and burdensome regulations from the books", echoing an earlier "two-for-one" regulatory repeal policy he attempted to enforce during his first term in office. Trump has shown particular zeal for eliminating policies he sees as part of the "Green New Scam", a blanket term he uses for clean energy spending under President Joe Biden's signature climate legislation, the Inflation Reduction Act, and climate-related regulations. If Trump's first term serves as a guide, he will again seek to repeal regulations that restrict methane emissions from US oil and gas production, weaken CO2 emission limits for power plants and block tailpipe rules that encourage EVs. "I will end the insane EV mandates," Trump says. Faster permitting will be another top priority, Trump says, after his efforts to pass comprehensive permitting legislation collapsed during his first term. A Harris victory, in contrast, would be key to implementing dozens of climate-related regulations issued under the Biden administration and defending them in court. Expediting federal permitting and "cutting red tape" will also be a priority for a Harris administration, given the impediments it can create for clean energy projects and other infrastructure, according to campaign documents. "No-one can tell me we can't build quickly," Harris says. Federal oil and gas leasing has plunged under Biden, who was unable to carry out campaign promises to ban new leasing but was still able to limit onshore lease sales to 210,000 acres/yr (850 km²/yr) in 2022-23, down from more than 6mn acres/yr in 2018-19 under Trump. Oil and gas groups say expanded federal leasing, particularly in the US Gulf of Mexico, is a top policy priority. Trump has vowed to expand federal oil and gas development if he wins, particularly by enabling drilling in Alaska's Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), which he opened to leasing in 2017 but has been held up in reviews since Biden took office. "I'll put ANWR back in play," Trump says. Less clear is how Trump would handle offshore leasing, an issue that backfired in his first term when his push for drilling offshore Florida prompted fury from political leaders in the Republican-led state. Harris has yet to explicitly embrace federal drilling, but she has touted the "record energy production" the US has achieved under the Biden-Harris administration, and supports further growth "so that we never again have to rely on foreign oil", according to campaign documents. A recent bipartisan bill from US senator Joe Manchin suggests there is flexibility from the Democrats on the issue, by offering more federal oil leasing in exchange for fast-tracking electric transmission development. LNG pause in balance Biden's decision earlier this year to pause the licensing of newly-built LNG export terminals has fuelled uncertainty for projects such as Venture Global's 28mn t/yr CP2 project in Louisiana. But the pause is only set to last until early 2025, when the US Department of Energy (DOE) will finish work on a study into whether further exports are in the "public interest" based on factors such as climate change and domestic energy prices. Trump says as soon as he takes office he will approve pending LNG export terminals, which he says are "good for the environment, not bad, and good for our country". Harris has yet to describe her approach to licensing more LNG terminals, the approval of which environmental activists say would be a "climate bomb". But Manchin's permitting bill suggests there is some room for manoeuvre, by requiring the DOE to decide on LNG export licences within 90 days. Oil industry officials are preparing for a fight to retain the existing corporate tax rate of 21pc enacted under Trump in 2017, as Congress is heading towards a "tax cliff" at the end of 2025 that will cost more than $4 trillion to avert. Harris has called for Congress to raise the corporate tax rate to 28pc, but wants new tax credits for industries such as manufacturing. Trump has proposed a lower corporate tax rate of 15pc only "for those who make their product in America". At the same time, Trump's push for an across-the-board import tariff of up to 20pc has alarmed industry officials, who say such a policy would raise consumer prices and potentially trigger a disruptive trade war. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Chevron shuts Gulf platform ahead of Hurricane Milton


24/10/07
24/10/07

Chevron shuts Gulf platform ahead of Hurricane Milton

New York, 7 October (Argus) — Chevron evacuated and shut in its Blind Faith oil and gas production platform in the Gulf of Mexico in advance of Hurricane Milton, which has strengthened into a category 5 storm as it barrels toward Florida's west coast. Output from Chevron's other operated facilities in the region remains at normal levels, the company said today. The 65,000 b/d Blind Faith platform is located around 160 miles southeast of New Orleans. Milton, with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph, was about out 130 miles west of Progreso, Mexico, according to an 11am ET National Hurricane Center advisory. The storm will move through the Campeche Bank offshore region north of Mexico's Yucatan peninsula — where state-owned Pemex's largest oil and natural gas production operations are located — today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by Wednesday. On its current track, the hurricane is expected to skirt to the south of the majority of US offshore oil and natural gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico. The region accounts for around 15pc of total US crude output and 5pc of US natural gas production. Hurricane Helene temporarily shut in up to 29pc of oil production and 20pc of gas output in the Gulf of Mexico late last month. By Stephen Cunningham Hurricane Milton projected path Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Concerns remain over plans of firm tapped to run Citgo


24/10/07
24/10/07

Concerns remain over plans of firm tapped to run Citgo

London, 7 October (Argus) — The top bidder in the auction for Venezuelan state-run PdV's US refining subsidiary, Citgo, says it plans to reinvest in its 804,000 b/d of refining capacity, but concerns remain over the private equity-backed buyer's intentions. Amber Energy was selected on 27 September as the top bidder in an auction for the seventh-largest US refiner, with a bid of $7.3bn. The company, backed by investors including Elliott Investment Management, says it would focus on "enhancing the value of its [Citgo's] core assets" by prioritising "operational excellence", reinvesting in the business and pursuing "strategic investments". Amber is led by industry veterans Gregory Goff and Jeff Stevens. The latter was chief executive of Western Refining from 2010-17, while Goff ran refiner Andeavor from 2010-18, during which time it changed its name from Tesoro, bought Stevens' Western Refining and was then bought by Marathon Petroleum. Goff and Stevens' refining pedigree has not allayed concerns in the market that one of their investors, Elliott, and other undisclosed backers, want to split up the assets and sell them for a combined price higher than the investment group's $7.3bn bid. Elliott's track record of activist investing in North American refiners shows a clear preference for improving the core business of processing crude into fuels, with little interest in what the investment firm views as non-core assets. Elliott pushed Canadian integrated energy company Suncor in 2022 for board changes and divestment of its 1,500 retail stores, which it ultimately did not sell. The firm had more luck with Marathon, which agreed to sell its 3,900-store Speedway network in 2019, the year after it bought Andeavor. Last year, Elliott purchased a $1bn stake in Phillips 66 and called for the company to refocus on its refining business and reduce operating costs. Phillips 66 divested some of its retail network and pipelines this year. The investment group, which started out trading in the 1970s but has since expanded into a multi-strategy hedge fund and private equity firm, has shown a clear preference for merchant refiners within its activist investments, and criticised the strategy of integrated refining companies. It is not clear whether that preference carries through to its private-markets investment in Amber, which could also be eyeing an initial public offering for the assets down the line. Elliott did not respond to requests for comment on its strategy. A spokesperson for Amber declined to discuss details of the company's strategy on the record. Seeking closure Amber said it expects the sale to close in mid-2025, pending regulatory approval and a final recommendation by the US Court for the District of Delaware. But investors involved in the auction process and other downstream operators told Argus that higher bids from other refiners or groups are likely, as Amber's bid is considered relatively low for what are widely viewed as attractive refining assets. The auction comes at a time of flatlining domestic demand for road fuels such as gasoline, and ongoing worries about the future of the US refining industry, where smaller and less profitable plants are the most likely to shutter operations. But Citgo's two Gulf coast assets — a 455,000 b/d refinery in Louisiana and a 165,000 b/d plant in Texas — are large, complex refineries that could benefit from access to export markets as domestic demand wanes and the Gulf coast readies for the 2025 closure of LyondellBasell's 264,000 b/d Houston plant. Citgo's 184,000 b/d Lemont refinery in Illinois could gain access to cheap Canadian heavy crude and sell products to the US market when major plants such as ExxonMobil's 252,000 b/d Joliet refinery in Illinois and BP's 435,000 b/d Whiting facility in Indiana are off line owing to outages or maintenance. By Nathan Risser Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more