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US inflation slows to 2.9pc in July, 3-year low

  • : Metals, Natural gas
  • 24/08/14

US inflation slowed in July to the lowest since March 2021, a sign of decelerating pricing pressure that point to a likely cut in borrowing costs by the Federal Reserve next month.

The consumer price index (CPI) slowed to an annual 2.9pc in July from 3pc in June and 3.3pc in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. So-called core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose by 3.2pc in July, the smallest gain since April 2021.

After the report, the CME's FedWatch tool signaled a 58.5pc probability that the Fed will cut its target rate by a quarter point in September from 47pc odds Wednesday. Probabilities of a half point cut fell to 41.5pc from 53pc the prior day, suggesting underlying signs of stubborn inflation in the details of today's report.

The energy index rose by an annual 1.1pc in July, accelerating from 1pc in June, while the gasoline index contracted by 2.2pc in July compared with a 2.5pc contraction in June. Energy services rose by an annual 4.2pc, slowing from 4.3pc the prior month.

Food costs rose by 2.2pc in July, matching the prior month. Shelter rose by 5.1pc in July, easing from 5.2pc the prior month. Transportation services rose by 8.8pc in July following a 9.4pc gain in June.

After falling to 3.1pc in January, inflation had reaccelerated to as high as 3.5pc in March as job growth and other economic data had come in stronger than expected. That prompted the Federal Reserve to hold off on widely expected rate cuts after hiking its target rate to a 23-year high of 5.25-5.5pc in July 2023 and holding it there since, saying it needed "greater confidence" that inflation was easing to its 2pc target.

The Fed, in its June policy meeting, penciled in one likely quarter-point cut this year, down from three signaled in March. But a weaker than expected employment report for July early this month had prompted an equity market downdraft last week on recession concerns and fears the Fed had been too slow to begin cutting rates.

CPI rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.2pc in July after a 0.1pc gain in June. Core CPI was up by 0.2pc for the month after a monthly gain of 0.1pc in June.

By Bob Willis


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25/02/07

Trump planning rollout of 'reciprocal' tariffs

Trump planning rollout of 'reciprocal' tariffs

Washington, 7 February (Argus) — President Donald Trump is considering announcing "mostly reciprocal tariffs" on an undisclosed number of countries early next week, in a possible shift from a campaign plan to impose universal tariffs of 10-20pc against all imports to the US. Trump did not provide specifics on the idea, but said he would probably have a meeting on 10 or 11 February before making an announcement. The potential rollout of the reciprocal tariffs appears likely to take place after China's planned 10 February date to start collecting a 10pc tariff on crude, coal and LNG from the US that Beijing imposed in response to a 10pc blanket tariff that Trump has placed on Chinese imports. "I think that's the only fair way to do it," Trump said of his plan to "probably" pursue reciprocal tariffs. "That way, nobody's hurt. They charge us, we charge them. It's the same thing. And I seem to be going in that line, as opposed to a flat fee tariff." Trump has said he views tariffs — which he says is his "favorite word" — as a virtually cost-free way to raise revenue that will cut the US trade deficit and boost domestic manufacturing, without raising prices for goods in the US. But earlier this week, Trump delayed his plan to place an across-the-board 25pc tariff on Canada and Mexico just hours before it was set to take effect, as stock markets began to plunge on the threat of the start of a damaging trade war between the US and its two largest trading partners. The vast majority of economists say across-the-board tariffs are an inefficient way of raising revenue, with costs that would fall the hardest on low-income and middle-income US consumers already reeling from years of inflation. US Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) on 2 February said kicking off a tariff war with Canada and Mexico "makes 100pc no sense" and would raise costs for US consumers. Trump discussed his reciprocal tariff idea today during a press conference with Japan's prime minister Shigeru Ishiba. Trump said he wants to "get rid of" the US' trade deficit with Japan he estimates is $100bn/yr, primarily by selling the country US oil, LNG and ethanol. Trump said he also spoke with Ishiba about efforts related to the "pipeline in Alaska", an apparent reference to the proposed 20mn t/yr Alaska LNG project, which is expected to cost more than $40bn and would require building a natural gas pipeline across Alaska. Ishiba said it was "wonderful" that Trump had lifted a temporary pause on LNG licensing on his first day in office, and said Japan was interested in purchasing US LNG, ethanol, ammonia and other resources as a way to cut down on the US trade deficit with Japan. "If we are able to buy those at a stable and reasonable price, I think it would be a wonderful situation," Ishiba said through a translator. Japan is keen to increase its overall investment in the US to $1 trillion, Ishiba said. By Chris Knight Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Nippon to invest in, not buy, US Steel: Trump


25/02/07
25/02/07

Nippon to invest in, not buy, US Steel: Trump

Pittsburgh, 7 February (Argus) — US President Donald Trump said today Nippon Steel has agreed to invest in US Steel instead of buying the company outright. "Nissan is going to be doing something very exciting about US Steel. They'll be looking at an investment rather than a purchase," Trump said today at a news conference in Washington with Japanese prime minister Shigeru Ishiba. Trump likely mistakenly referred to Tokyo-based Nippon Steel by the name of the Japanese car company. Although the White House did not immediately respond to a request for clarification, Nissan confirmed to Argus that it does not have plans to invest in US Steel. Trump's predecessor Joe Biden blocked Nippon Steel's proposed $15bn takeover bid of Pittsburgh-based US Steel last month, citing national security concerns. Both men were adamant on the campaign trail that US Steel should not be owned by a foreign company. "We didn't want to see [US Steel] leave. It wouldn't actually leave. But the concept psychologically — not good," Trump said. Nippon Steel will provide technology to make steel in the US in a mutually beneficial deal, Ishiba said about the proposal. Trump said he would soon meet with Nippon Steel to work out the details of the investment. By James Marshall Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Tariffs have ‘pluses and minuses’: ConocoPhillips


25/02/07
25/02/07

Tariffs have ‘pluses and minuses’: ConocoPhillips

New York, 7 February (Argus) — Threatened US tariffs targeting Canadian imports have both "pluses and minuses" for US independent producer ConocoPhillips which has production on both sides of the northern border. The company's primary exposure to tariffs would center upon sales from its Surmont oil sands operations in Alberta, Canada, into the US. "We sell around half of our Surmont liquids into the US on a mix of pipeline and rail," said Andy O'Brien, ConocoPhillips senior vice president for strategy, commercial, sustainability and technology. "But the remainder is actually transported to the Canadian West coast or sold in the local Alberta market." If tariffs were to be implemented, it is "pretty difficult" to say exactly who would carry the burden -- producers or buyers -- he added. "The refiners in the Midwest and the Rockies have less options to substitute versus, say, the Gulf coast or the west coast refiners," O'Brien said. The company's diversified portfolio would also help shelter it from some exposure. "If we were to see tariffs, we'd likely see strengthening differentials for Bakken, for [Alaska North Slope crude] and possibly even the Permian," said O'Brien. "So lots of moving parts." Like others in the oil industry, ConocoPhillips is looking at the potential to supply power to cater to the boom in AI data centers. "It's got to be competitive for capital, but it certainly looks like some growth opportunities potentially coming, and we're assessing some of those opportunities right now," chief executive officer Ryan Lance told analysts after posting fourth quarter results. Although the Trump administration has called on domestic producers to step up output, Lance said his priority was to drive further efficiencies in operations. "A lot of our focus and attention right now is on permitting reform," Lance said, and the need to build out energy infrastructure. Drilling approvals, rights of ways, and permits on federal land all slowed under the administration of former-president Joe Biden and there is an opportunity now to get back on track. "That just adds to the overall efficiency of the system and should lead to a more sustained plateau or growth in our production coming out of the Lower 48 in terms of liquids and certainly the growing amount of gas volumes that are coming as well," Lance said. "So it just creates a better environment for investment and more efficient operations." Full-year 2025 output at ConocoPhillips is seen in the range of 2.34mn-2.38mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d), which includes 20,000 boe/d of planned turnarounds. Fourth quarter 2024 profit fell to $2.3bn from $3bn in the final three months of 2023, as higher volumes were more than offset by acquisition-related expenses and lower prices. Averaged realized prices fell 10pc to $52.37/boe from the fourth quarter of 2023. Fourth quarter output of 2.18mn boe/d represented an increase of 281,000 boe/d from the same quarter of the previous year. After adjusting for acquisitions and dispositions, output grew by 6pc. As part of a $2bn divestment goal, ConocoPhillips has signed agreements to sell non-core Lower 48 assets for $600mn. They are expected to close in the first half of the year. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Japan’s domestic EV sales extend fall in January


25/02/07
25/02/07

Japan’s domestic EV sales extend fall in January

Tokyo, 7 February (Argus) — Japanese domestic sales of passenger electric vehicles (EVs) fell for a 15th consecutive month in January, but the decrease rate has slowed. Sales totalled 4,563 units in January 2025, down by 2pc from a year earlier, according to data from three industry groups — the Automobile Dealers Association, the Japan Light Motor Vehicle and Motorcycle Association and the Japan Automobile Importers Association (JAIA). Sales were also down by 12pc on the month. Domestic EV sales continued to fall on the year but the decrease rate slowed in January, marking the first single-digit fall on the year since November 2023. EVs accounted for 1.4pc of Japan's total domestic passenger car sales in January, down by 0.2 percentage points from a year earlier. The decline is mostly because of weaker demand for domestic brand EVs including Toyota. Toyota's EV sales declined sharply to 68 units, down by 74pc from a year earlier. Foreign brand EV sales continued its uptrend, according to JAIA's representative who spoke to Argus . Sales of foreign brand passenger EVs increased by 3.6pc on the year to 1,209 units, marking the third consecutive month of year-on-year growth. But sales from China's BYD fell sharply by around 80pc on the year to 42 units, mostly on the back of delivery suspensions, JAIA added. Imported EVs accounted for around 26pc of Japan's total domestic EV sales. This was largely stable on the year, but down by 31 percentage points from a month earlier. Foreign brand manufacturers tend to increase their sales in December, according to JAIA, leading to relatively lower deliveries in January. By Yusuke Maekawa Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Crude Summit: US to remain top crude producer


25/02/06
25/02/06

Crude Summit: US to remain top crude producer

Houston, 6 February (Argus) — The US is likely to remain the world's top crude producer for some time to come, according to shale executives at the Argus Global Crude Summit Americas in Houston, Texas, today. "In the foreseeable future, I don't really see a lot of change," said Shannon Flowers, director of crude and water marketing at Coterra Energy. There is still enough high-quality acreage to go after, while efficiency gains around faster drilling times and targeting longer wells are also helping to drive output gains. "There's a lot of creativity that goes on in trying to understand how we can do more with less," Flowers said today at the event. While the rig count is down 20pc over the last two years, production has grown by more than 1mn b/d. "Doing more with less is kind of a common theme," Flowers said in reference to operations at Coterra and across the industry. "I expect that to continue." While the Permian has dominated all the attention of late, the offshore Gulf of Mexico is likely to be an important driver of output going forward, with several projects starting up this year. Other regions such as the Rockies, Wyoming and possibly Utah could also see some growth. A recent round of mergers and acquisitions that saw $300bn of upstream oil and gas deals inked has further to run, says John Argo, vice president for the Williston Basin at Continental Resources. "There will continue to be more consolidation," Argo said. Scarcity with regard to remaining high-quality acreage means that valuations will continue to climb, he said. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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