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Energy firms on alert after flooding in Europe: Update

  • : Electricity, Natural gas, Oil products
  • 24/09/16

Adds details throughout

Torrential rain has led to major flooding across large swathes of central and eastern Europe, causing power outages and significant damage to transport infrastructure in southwest Poland and the Czech Republic. Parts of Austria, Germany, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania are also affected.

In Poland, most of the affected areas so far are in the southwest of the country close to the border with the Czech Republic including the towns of Jelenia Gora, Klodzko, Nysa and Glucholazy. Urban areas further down the Odra river are also at risk including the cities of Wroclaw and Opole, where elevated water levels are expected in the coming days.

The Polish government held an emergency meeting earlier today and a state of emergency has since been declared in the affected areas.

Polish utility company Tauron, which operates the electricity distribution network in the worst affected area, said some of its infrastructure was disconnected in several towns including Klodzko and Glucholazy. But Poland's power grid operator PSE said there has been no damage to transmission infrastructure. Likewise, Polish gas pipeline operator Gaz-System said it has not suffered any damage but remains in crisis mode.

Polish train operator PKP Intercity suspended passenger rail traffic to and from the Czech Republic on 15 September until further notice, while local TV showed images of damaged road and waterways infrastructure, including bridges and dams as well as retail fuel stations.

Poland's wholesale coal market, which is usually busy in the autumn, could stall in flood-hit areas for a few weeks as priority is given to the clean-up operation and repairing transport infrastructure, according to traders in the country. But Polish biofuel firm Bioagra, which operates a bioethanol plant near the flood-hit town of Nysa, told Argus that the facility continues to operate normally.

In the Czech Republic, Orlen Unipetrol — operator of 108,000 b/d Litvinov and 66,000 b/d Kralupy refineries — said all its production sites continue to operate although the company has shut 11 of its service stations in the country. The firm said its crisis management team at each production site is monitoring the situation and it is in contact with authorities. Elsewhere in the Czech Republic, utility Veolia has had to shut plants in Ostrava and Krnov.

Hungarian oil firm Mol — which operates service stations in Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, as well as refineries in Hungary and Slovakia — told Argus that preparatory flood prevention works are underway. It is in contact with authorities and there is currently no threat to security of fuel supply, it said.

Hungarian authorities expect water levels on the river Danube at Budapest to continue rising until the weekend, which could affect Veolia's 428MW gas-fired power plant at Gonyu upstream from the capital and potentially power firm MVM's 2GW Paks nuclear plant downstream from Budapest. Floods on smaller rivers Lajta and Raba in northwest Hungary are also yet to peak.

Austrian refiner OMV said it has put in place precautionary safety and mitigation measures at its 193,700 b/d Schwechat refinery and two other sites at Gansendorf and Lobau in the federal state of Lower Austria, which was declared a disaster region on 15 September. No damage to property or people has been reported so far but OMV has closed four retail stations temporarily in the state as a precaution, it said.


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24/11/08

Fund woes to hit Australian post-winter bitumen imports

Fund woes to hit Australian post-winter bitumen imports

Singapore, 8 November (Argus) — Australia's bitumen import demand following its June-August winter is anticipated to fall by about 20pc on the year because of prolonged funding issues and a lack of big paving projects, market participants told Argus . Australia continues to be plagued by budget and funding issues, with the country still reeling from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic. Less funding has been allocated to road maintenance works this year and most of the local councils have decided to spend their budgets on other key sectors such as healthcare. Funding levels have overall been on a downtrend since 2020, market participants added. Although demand has risen since mid-October compared to the previous months this year, consumption levels remain unchanged from the same period in the last year as most projects are small and revolve around filling potholes, market participants said. Bitumen consumption is expected to be around 10-20pc lower on the year in 2024, the participants added, with some noting that the situation is unlikely to improve for at least two more years because of higher inflationary pressures in the country. Most importers in Australia currently have enough inventory to last until January 2025 and are not looking to procure spot cargoes on top of their term import commitments, and small volumes can be procured from the local suppliers if required, they said. Roads in Australia are set to get a maintenance boost, especially in parts such as southern Australia, according to the minister for regional development, local government and territories, but market participants argued that what "road projects" encompass has changed over the years and now includes other elements of maintenance such as grass cutting, construction of safety barriers and traffic lights, which do not involve road paving or bitumen. Of the entire budget allocated by the government, only around a third or less goes to road maintenance and paving works, Australia-based importers said. There was also a dip in demand from western Australia as authorities delayed pricing contracts for paving projects because of budgeting constraints. Australia imported around 488,874t of bitumen from January-August, according to Australian Petroleum Statistics data, compared to 605,283t from January-August 2023. Bitumen imports totalled around 932,286t in the whole of 2023, up from 915,467t in 2022. New Zealand demand to rise Conversely, New Zealand's import demand is expected to rise on the back of firm domestic consumption. Market participants in New Zealand said post-winter consumption and sales could be 3-4pc higher than the same time in 2023, which was already a record year for some importers. Importers noted the country is well on track to bringing in about 160,000-170,000t of bitumen this year. The weather has also been dry, making it conducive for road construction works. With the clear weather expected to carry on into summer, which falls between December and February, market participants said they are using this year-end period to stock up on inventory levels before the Christmas break in December. Most companies are likely to see a slowdown in road works by mid-December as contractors will leave for year-end breaks. It is important to buy enough supplies for the new year, said market participants, as February and March are usually the peak paving months for New Zealand. New Zealand imported about 54,000t in the first half of this year, compared to 144,220t during the same period last year, according to GTT data. The region imported 180,576t last year, compared to 200,615t in 2022. By Chloe Choo Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Hungary’s Mol cuts forecast for 2024 refinery runs


24/11/08
24/11/08

Hungary’s Mol cuts forecast for 2024 refinery runs

Budapest, 8 November (Argus) — Hungarian integrated oil firm Mol has revised down its 2024 forecast for crude runs at its two landlocked refineries after a "turnaround-heavy" third quarter, it said today. The company expects to refine around 11.5mn t of crude combined at the 161,000 b/d Szazhalombatta plant in Hungary and the 115,000 b/d Bratislava complex in Slovakia this year, down from its previous guidance of about 12mn t. The two refineries processed 8.25mn t of crude in January-September, down from 9.09mn t a year earlier. Their combined crude throughput was down by 11pc on the year at 2.81mn t in the third quarter. Mol carried out scheduled maintenance at Szazhalombatta between 26 July and 19 September and expects to complete maintenance work on petrochemical units at Bratislava in the first half of November. Crude intake at Mol's third refinery, the 90,000 b/d Rijeka plant on Croatia's Adriatic coast, rose by 2.6pc on the year to 802,000t in the third quarter and was largely unchanged year-on-year at 1.26mn t in January-September. The company's crude throughput forecast only includes the Hungarian and Slovakian refineries. Mol cut the share of imported crude in its overall slate to 3.35mn t, or 93pc, in the third quarter from 3.8mn t, or 97pc, a year earlier, while it almost doubled intake from its own crude production to 255,000t in July-September from 129,000t in the same period last year. Szazhalombatta and Bratislava mostly process Russian crude received through the Druzhba pipeline system under an EU oil ban waiver, while Rijeka mainly takes non-Russian seaborne crude. The profitability of Mol's refining business was hit by a 71pc year-on-year fall in its refinery margin indicator — calculated based on the Dated Brent crude benchmark — to just $3.70/bl in July-September. Its oil product sales fell by 4.2pc from a year earlier to 4.88mn t in the third quarter. This included 1.52mn t of products Mol had to buy from third parties to complement its own output and satisfy demand, a significant rise from 1.25mn t of third-party oil products it sold a year earlier. The firm's upstream oil and gas production rose by 11pc on the year to 96,100 b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) in the July-September quarter. It has raised its full-year forecast to about 92,000-94,000 boe/d from previous guidance of around 90,000 boe/d. Mol's profit fell to 111.5bn forint ($295mn) in the third quarter from Ft175.8bn a year earlier. By Béla Fincziczki Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

German energy-intensive industry reduces output


24/11/07
24/11/07

German energy-intensive industry reduces output

London, 7 November (Argus) — Production from Germany's energy-intensive industrial sectors was lower in September than a year earlier for the first time in seven months, driven by lower generation from the chemicals sector. Energy-intensive industrial production fell by about 3.3pc in September from August, according to data from German statistical office Destatis ( see data and download ). This was driven largely by a 4.3pc fall in output from the chemicals industry. And overall industrial output was about 1.8pc lower than in September 2023, falling year on year for the first time since February this year. The chemicals industry has warned of lower business confidence in the sector since the summer . Energy-intensive industrial branches previously showed signs of a slow recovery, but general manufacturing output across Germany has been on a consistent downward trajectory in recent months ( see manufacturing index graph ). Manufacturing output across all industrial sectors fell on the month by about 2.5pc, having risen on the month by 2.6pc in August. Third-quarter output as a whole was about 2pc lower than in the second quarter. Industrial economic activity has remained "very weak" recently, German economy and climate ministry BMWK said. But it expects a bottom to form in about the new year. BMWK has predicted that Germany will be in a technical recession in 2024 , before a return to 1.1pc GDP growth in 2025. The German economy started on a downward trajectory in 2022 , triggered by higher energy prices on the back of a halt to Russian gas deliveries to the country. And it has since been hampered by other structural factors such as labour shortages and a high bureaucratic burden. Higher gas prices could drive output lower A steady rise in gas prices in recent months could lead industrial firms to curtail domestic industrial production or use LPG instead of gas for some industrial processes. Argus assessed the German THE everyday price at an average of €40.68/MWh in October, about 56pc higher than the €25.98/MWh in February, the index's lowest point this year. Much higher gas prices since 2022 have driven a drop in Germany's industrial gas demand. Gas use in German industry of 256.5TWh in 2023 was about 22pc lower than the pre-crisis 2018-21 average of 327.6TWh, according to Destatis data released earlier this week ( see sector demand graph ). Firms either curtailed production in reaction to higher prices or switched to LPG in some processes in which gas is used as an energy carrier. But some processes, such as the production of ammonia through the Haber-Bosch-synthesis, use methane as a feedstock, which means they cannot shift to LPG as easily. Gas used as a feedstock reacted more strongly to the energy crisis than the gas used for energy. Gas use as a feedstock in the chemicals industry fell by 36pc in 2023 from 2021, while gas use for energy fell by only a quarter. Many fertiliser producers curtailed capacity in 2023, and Europe's largest fertiliser producer, Yara, expects its European gas costs to rise on the year this winter . The producer has already indicated it will shift its focus towards cheaper ammonia production in the US and away from Europe. Industrial gas use on track to rise in 2024 German industrial gas demand is on course to be higher this year than in 2023, based on daily data ending at the end of October. Industrial gas use for production processes other than space heating was 746 GWh/d in January-October, about 8pc higher than a year earlier, according to Argus estimates. But if September's industrial output drops extend to a multi-month trend, this would pull down the average for this year as a whole. Industrial demand typically falls in December when the holiday period limits economic activity, which could push down the average further. And the collapsed German governing coalition is unlikely to send strong recovery signals to the German economy. German market area manager THE publishes a combined dataset for gas demand by industry and the power sector. Argus splits out power-sector gas demand data by assuming operational efficiencies of 39-42pc, in line with fuel use data from Destatis, and factors out seasonal demand swings linked to space heating by looking at analogue trends in the residential and commercial sector ( see demand split graph ). Argus' estimates diverge from Destatis' annual demand data by only about 1-3pc, except for a 6pc gap in 2021 ( see Destatis vs Argus estimates graph ). By Till Stehr German manufacturing index index, 2021=100 German industrial gas demand by sector TWh German industry and power demand split GWh/d Destatis data vs Argus estimates GWh/d Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

German government collapse could delay energy policies


24/11/07
24/11/07

German government collapse could delay energy policies

London, 7 November (Argus) — The collapse of the German coalition government may delay critical energy security policies currently under discussion, with industry and power associations expressing concerns about potential political standstill on such issues in the coming months. Asked in Berlin on Thursday, energy minister Robert Habeck said he does not expect a general agreement between the remaining red-green government and the conservative Union, which would ensure all further projects in this parliamentary period. And "it remains to be seen" if some decisions could be made together with the opposition on a case-by-case basis where the interests of government and CDU align, Habeck said, although energy security could be one topic where bills could be passed during the minority government phase before the end of this year. CDU politicians including on the state level had "constantly" written him letters to ask when some laws would "finally" be passed, he said, highlighting that while he does not expect "a great deal of helpfulness" he hopes the opposition will work with the government on the basis of how beneficial planning security would be for Germany as a whole. Among the energy security laws waiting to be passed is the draft law that abolishes the German gas storage levy on cross-border interconnection points , while the government has not yet passed its power plant strategy nor submitted the second of its two planned "solar packages". Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Wednesday said that among the legislative projects he was trying to pass before the end of the year were "immediate measures for our industry" on which he was currently deliberating with "companies, unions and associations". He said he would quickly try to begin speaking to opposition leader Friedrich Merz around the questions of defence and economic stability, since the economic stabilisation "cannot wait until elections have taken place". The coalition government collapsed after Scholz sacked finance minister Christian Linder , leading the latter to withdraw his party from the ruling coalition. An election looks likely in early 2025. Industry and renewables associations in particular voiced concerns about the timing of the collapse and potential political stagnation, with general leader of chemicals association VCI calling for elections at "the earliest possible time" to avoid "stalemate and political standstill", while the federation of German industries BDI said the country needs a "new, effective government" with a parliamentary majority "as quickly as possible". VCI stressed that Germany needs low energy prices, faster permitting and less bureaucracy, while BDI highlighted that existing market uncertainty is likely to rise with the arrival of the new US administration at the beginning of 2025, when Scholz plans to hold a vote of confidence. And wind association BWE stated that the country "cannot afford to stand still", while solar power association BSW appealed to members of the Bundestag to "make decisions and compromise" on important energy policy issues across party lines. Renewables association BEE called for laws and budget funds already in process for the continuity of energy measures to be adopted by December, stating that "even in a political crisis" the country "cannot afford" stagnation and stalemates. Conservative opposition sister parties CDU and CSU have been polling well ahead across 2024 at around 30-33pc of the vote. While the parties agree with the ruling coalition on several aspects of energy policy — including supporting hydrogen-fired and climate-neutral gas-fired generation — they notably diverge on the topic of nuclear generation. Germany completed its long-awaited nuclear phase-out in April 2023, but the CDU/CSU this week announced it would conduct an investigation into whether the last plants to be decommissioned could feasibly be reactivated. The CDU/CSU also reiterated its support for the development of fourth and fifth-generation nuclear reactors. Nuclear plants are notorious for lengthy construction times, meaning a single parliamentary term may not be enough to see projects through without cross-party support, and the ruling Greens and SPD remain anti-nuclear. The country has also not yet decided on a final storage location for its existing nuclear waste, which will need to be stored there for "one million years", according to the final report from the commission for the storage of highly radioactive waste. But the CDU and SPD have both voiced support for the introduction of a national green gas sales quota , with the CDU/CSU this week highlighting green gas quotas in the gas grid as a way to leverage the market to reach climate goals. By Till Stehr and Helen Senior Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexican peso plummets on Trump win


24/11/06
24/11/06

Mexican peso plummets on Trump win

Mexico City, 6 November (Argus) — The Mexican peso fell sharply against the US dollar as markets priced in potential retaliation against Mexico following former president's Donald Trump's victory in the US presidential election. "A Republican Senate majority and potential House win raise the chances of Trump's radical reforms, which could hurt Mexico's economic dynamism," said a financial analyst from Mexican bank Monex in a note today. The peso initially dropped around 3pc to Ps20.71/$1 early today, hitting a two-year low before recovering to Ps20.20/$1 by midday. The peso may weaken further, as Mexico is vulnerable to tariff hikes amid strained relations over issues like immigration and the opioid crisis, according to a desk report from a major Mexican bank. Trump repeatedly threatened tariffs on Mexico during his presidential campaign, most recently pledging a 25pc tariff on all Mexican imports unless President Claudia Sheinbaum's administration launches a severe crackdown on Mexico's drug cartels, which ship fentanyl and other drugs across the border to the US. Recent constitutional amendments in Mexico, including judicial reforms and proposed eliminations of independent regulators, may also add downward pressure on the peso, according to the report. "The government's goal to direct private-sector involvement could limit market forces," it noted. Mexico's state-owned oil company Pemex typically offsets peso depreciation due to its dollar-denominated oil export revenues, which help cover increased import costs. "Pemex's exports and domestic sales are tied to international hydrocarbon prices, providing a natural hedge," the company stated in its most recent report. Still, analysts warn that Pemex's focus on domestic refining over crude exports could erode this hedge, leaving it more exposed to foreign exchange swings on USD-denominated debt. By Édgar Sígler Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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