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NWE imports of US LPG surge in 3Q but winter bearish

  • : LPG
  • 24/10/01

Downstream demand is unlikely to pick up, with concerns around an oversupplied market also weighing on sentiment, writes Efcharis Sgourou

Northwest Europe's imports of LPG from the US rose sharply in the third quarter as regional demand unexpectedly firmed during the summer off-season. And arrivals are likely to drop this winter, contrary to typical seasonal patterns.

The region imported around 580,000t of US LPG in September, the second-largest monthly volume this year after August's 592,000t, Argus estimates. This lifted arrivals to 1.74mn t during the third quarter, the highest since late 2022 and nearly a third up from 1.34mn t in the second quarter. The increase in import demand came as a result of regional supplies falling significantly during maintenance season in the North Sea, in particular at Norway's Karsto, Kollsness and Nyhamna gas processing plants. Some earlier-than-expected demand for stockbuilding prior to winter then led to prompt buyers on the spot market raising their bids in order to attract US LPG cargoes, in turn bolstering the price of cif Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) propane large cargoes, which rose to their highest against front-month Ice Brent crude in more than a year.

The spread between northwest European propane import prices and northeast Asian equivalents under the Argus Far East Index (AFEI) started to narrow towards the end of the third quarter, with the cif ARA discount reaching a little under $50/t compared with over $100/t in June and May. And although the transatlantic arbitrage was largely shut from July onwards, a few narrow periodic openings allowed European buyers to compete with Asia for US cargoes.

Looking to the fourth quarter, spot buying interest for large cargo deliveries in the first half of October looks relatively firm but downstream demand is likely to remain static rather than picking up as temperatures fall. European ethylene steam cracker demand is also unlikely to grow as although run rates improved over the past few months, they are yet to fully recover from recent lows. Propane has been at a steep discount to naphtha from March until May at below -$150/t, supporting demand from flexible crackers. But it has narrowed significantly since, the spread rising above -$50/t in late August — the tightest since February 2023 — and standing at -$66/t by 25 September, curbing buying interest from the sector. The spread could widen marginally in the final quarter but it may not be able to incentivise more demand.

The Karsto processing plant's return to full operations from late September and most other North Sea works coming to a close, as well as an anticipated light turnaround schedule for the region's refineries, will increase northwest European supply in the fourth quarter and decrease the dependency on imports of US LPG. Concerns the supply might overshoot demand has weighed on spot market sentiment in Europe, with October cif ARA propane swaps standing at $583/t on 24 September, compared with $569.50/t for December paper — an unusual backwardated structure into one of the peak months in terms of demand. The backwardation — prompt prices at a premium to later ones — is less indicative of prompt market bullishness and more a reflection of weak sentiment towards the end of the year.

Heavy Asian stockpiling

Sentiment in Asia-Pacific is also weak, with the AFEI forward structure in backwardation of around $5-7/t between October and December. This is largely a result of heavy stockpiling in Asia during the third quarter that has weighed on paper prices.

Meanwhile, front-month US prices at the US Gulf coast hub of Mont Belvieu have traded at discounts to December prices given concerns over exports during the fourth quarter. The price of US Gulf coast fob cargoes jumped to 25¢/USG premiums to Mont Belvieu prompt prices in September from 12¢/USG in June and 9¢/USG in May, an indication that export terminals are nearing capacity. Planned expansions of some of the key terminals are not due to start up until 2025 and 2026.

NWE imports of US LPG

NWE propane vs Ice Brent crude

NWE, NE Asia propane forward curves

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24/11/08

Poland's Azoty ramps up PDH/PP operations at Police

Poland's Azoty ramps up PDH/PP operations at Police

Warsaw, 8 November (Argus) — Polish chemical conglomerate Grupa Azoty said it is making progress in ramping up production at its new 437,000 t/yr propane dehydrogenation (PDH) and 429,000 t/yr polypropylene (PP) complex in Police, although it needs time to stabilise output and ascertain the unit's economic feasibility. Azoty said both units are operating even though formal commissioning of the entire project has not yet been yet completed. It is in negotiations with the contractor to undertake final improvements and overcome some defects, it said. Azoty expects to agree with the contractor on final terms of commissioning by the end of this year. Since the start of its operations, the PP plant has produced more than 200,000t and sales of PP reached 60,000t in the third quarter, Azoty said. Azoty sees healthy demand for its PP products from European buyers that want to diversify their supply portfolio to reduce risk in delays to imports from Asia-Pacific. "We see end users want have at least 30pc of their (PP) supplies to come from local European supplies," said plant manager Andrzej Dawidowski. He said the company sells PP through its own distribution as well as through traders that market in Europe and elsewhere. Azoty expects to make adjustments to this model as soon as it stabilises output, which would enable buyers to determine their demand for Azoty's product. Azoty said the Police plant is yet to generate positive earnings, and it requires stable supplies of feedstock propane. It said it is working with suppliers to secure financing to ensure steady propane supplies. Azoty also said the letter of intent with Polish integrated Orlen, about a possible sale of a stake in the PDH/PP project was extended until end of 2024, giving them more time to discuss the possibility of co-operation. By Tomasz Stepien Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Gatun Lake to reach all-time high in Dec: Panama Canal


24/11/08
24/11/08

Gatun Lake to reach all-time high in Dec: Panama Canal

London, 8 November (Argus) — Water levels at Gatun Lake that supplies the Panama Canal will reach an all-time high in December, according to forecasts from the Panama Canal Authority (ACP). This is a significant shift from the start of the year, when water levels were at the lowest January level since 1965 following an extensive El Nino induced-drought in 2023 ( see chart ). ACP expects water levels at the lake to hit 88.9ft on 7 December and then 89ft on 18 December, which if confirmed would break the 88.85ft record registered on 5 December 2022. This time last year water levels were in an 80-82ft range, the lowest on record for the November-December months, which prompted ACP to enforce rigorous transit restrictions that sent shockwaves through LPG and other shipping markets . The change in water levels reflects the transition from El Nino to La Nina, which typically brings more rainfall to Panama. Higher water levels from the onset of the rainy season in May allowed the ACP to gradually lift transits back to full capacity by August . This has helped keep auction prices for transits at the larger Neopanamax locks near initial $100,000 bidding levels — and even outpace demand, with many slots turned away without receiving any bids . Argus ' average weekly auction prices have ranged from $112,900 to $209,389 since July, settling at $136,750 by last week. This is a complete turnaround from a year earlier, when shippers paid as high as nearly $4mn for a single transit. On average, Neopanamax auction prices cost $2.1mn in November 2023. This probably helped support Panama Canal's profits in its financial 2024 year, to $3.45bn from $3.2bn a year earlier despite a 20pc fall in transits because of water-saving restrictions implemented. The ACP said the results reflected strategies such as the "freshwater surcharge, improved water yield through structural and operational upgrades, system enhancements for reservations and auctions, and maritime service operations." Water levels are forecast to gradually decrease again from 23 December with the start of the dry season, which usually lasts by May. By Yohanna Pinheiro Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

LPG bunker demand lags despite competitive pricing


24/10/29
24/10/29

LPG bunker demand lags despite competitive pricing

New York, 29 October (Argus) — LPG is seen by shipowners as one of the least expensive fuels for meeting new low-carbon emission rules, but spotty safety rules, a lack of bunkering infrastructure or four-stroke engines able to use it is holding back demand. LPG has been price-competitive with LNG and at a significant discount to B30 biodiesel, bio-methanol and blue ammonia and green ammonia this year, according to Argus . ( see chart ). Taking into account the cost of CO2 traded on the EU emissions trading system (ETS), northwest Europe LPG was pegged at $577/t from 1-28 October compared with LNG at $614/t average ( see chart ). The EU's ETS for marine shipping started this year and requires ship operators pay for 40pc of their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions generated on voyages in the EU. Next year, ship operators will have to pay for 70pc of their CO2 emissions. LPG is one of the fuels that can help ship operators comply with the FuelEU for the next ten years. Starting on 1 January 2025, the EU's FuelEU regulation will require a 2pc cut in the lifecycle greenhouse intensity for bunker fuels burned in EU territorial waters compared with 2020 base year levels. The reduction jumps to 6pc from 2030 and gradually reaches 80pc by 2050. LPG's lifecycle GHG emissions footprint varies depending on its production pathway. It is pegged at about 81.24 grams of CO2-equivalent per megajoule (gCO2e/MJ), according to technical support documentation from the California Air Resources Board. At this carbon intensity level, LPG is compliant with FuelEU's GHG limit set at 85.69 gCO2e/MJ through year 2034, similar to LNG. There are 151 operational ships with LPG-burning engines, with another 109 vessels on order by 2028, according to vessel classification society DNV. LPG bunker demand more than doubled to 242,292t in 2023 compared with 101,447t in 2022, according to the latest International Maritime Organization (IMO) data collected from vessels of 5,000 gross tonnes and over. But LPG bunker demand was dwarfed by comparison with LNG bunker demand, which was at 12.9mn t in 2023, up from 11mn t in 2022, according to the IMO. There were over 700 LNG burning vessels operational this year, with the number growing to 1,162 by 2028, according to DNV data. LPG accounted for 0.1pc and LNG for 6.1pc of global marine fuel demand from vessels with 5,000 gross tonnes and over in 2023. LNG as a marine fuel has been around longer than LPG. The World Liquid Gas Association, a trade association, began exploring the use of LPG as a marine fuel in 2012. The first LPG-fueled very large gas carrier BW Gemini was retrofitted to burn LPG in 2020. By comparison, LNG for bunkering by LNG carriers have been around since the 1960s. The first LNG-powered container ship was delivered in 2015. The bulk of the global LPG bunker demand came from LPG carriers. LPG carriers outfitted with LPG-burning engines can burn their own cargo, taking advantage of the ships' existing infrastructure and safety systems and minimizing their operating costs. But LPG demand from other major types of bunker-consuming vessels, such as container ships, dry bulk carriers and oil tankers, is lagging. One reason is only two-stroke LPG-burning marine engines are commercially available, says vessel classification society Lloyd's Register . Typically, large vessels use two-stroke engines for propulsion and four-stroke engines as auxiliaries, meaning auxiliary engines on vessels would need to be decarbonised through an additional fuel, says Lloyd's Register. LPG has a well-developed global network of import and export terminals. But LPG for bunkering port infrastructure, such as dedicated bunkering storage tanks and LPG bunkering barges, is mostly lacking. Unlike LNG for bunkering, LPG for bunkering regulatory guidelines are currently patchy. If leaked onto water, LPG rapidly vaporises and then sinks to the surface of the water given it is heavier than ambient air. If it ignites, it can create a "pool fire" that can spread and cannot be extinguished, continuing to burn until all the LPG is consumed, Lloyd's Register says. By Stefka Wechsler NW Europe selected alternative marine fuels $/t VLSFOe NW Europe, 1-28 Oct avg $/t VLSFOe Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Brazil's LPG market seeks alternatives: Correction


24/10/29
24/10/29

Brazil's LPG market seeks alternatives: Correction

Corrects national LPG demand in fifth paragraph. Rio de Janeiro, 29 October (Argus) — Brazil's LPG distribution business will change significantly and look toward alternatives such as compressed natural gas (CNG) and biomethane in the near future thanks to a growing number of industry mergers and an expected surge in demand from new federal laws. In March, Copa Energia, Brazil's largest LPG distributor with 25pc the market share, acquired small-scale CNG distributor Companhia de Transporte de Gas (CTG) as part of its strategy to expand distribution of natural gas and biomethane. Copa is looking to acquire at least three other companies, including biomethane producers, to increase margins as biomolecule prices are still higher. Ultragaz — which has 17pc of Brazil's LPG market share — acquired Neogas, another CNG distributor, in 2022 and progressed on to biomethane distribution. Essencis Biometano, a southeastern Sao Paulo state partnership between renewable energy companies MDC and Solvi Essencis Ambiental, will supply 68,000m³/d of biomethane to Ultragaz, and Rio de Janeiro GNR Dois Arcos' biomethane plant will supply 10,000 m³/d to Ultragaz. "This is a rush to capitalize on an opportunity to offer a mix of energy products to the market, hence not only securing one's clients portfolio but also moving ahead of the market and perhaps growing the clientele," one LPG market executive said. The trend of looking into other markets is especially strong in Sao Paulo as well as in southern and central-western states. The federal government's Gas for All social program — expected to deliver one 13kg cylinder/month to 20mn families by the end of 2025 — will also change the LPG market's dynamics by driving demand while including new consumers into the LPG market. Some participants say it will help decrease usage of firewood for cooking, which is still prominent in the countryside and unlikely to be replaced entirely. Delivered cylinders could replace up to 40pc of wood consumption, a consultant told Argus, thus increasing national demand for LPG by 216,000-312,000 metric tonnes (t)/yr, up from about 7.6mn t/yr currently used nationwide. The program is most likely to increase LPG use in rural areas, helping major distributors in those areas increase their market shares even further. By Betina Moura Brazilian LPG market share Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Pennsylvania drilling drops to 17-year low


24/10/25
24/10/25

Pennsylvania drilling drops to 17-year low

New York, 25 October (Argus) — Pennsylvania oil and natural gas drilling this week fell to the lowest in 17 years, signaling dimming producer sentiment in the second-largest US gas producing state. The number of rigs drilling for oil and gas in Pennsylvania this week fell to 12, the lowest since July 2007, as the state's rig count lost one from a week earlier and fell by 10 from a year earlier, according to oil field services company Baker Hughes. There were 101 gas-directed rigs in the US this week, down by 16 from a year earlier, implying that the majority of the gas-rig decline was due to the drop in Pennsylvania, where wells produce plentiful dry gas but little crude and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The 17-year-low rig count in the regional gas-producing powerhouse, home to the prolific Marcellus shale, is due to three factors: expectations of lower US gas prices after the 2024-25 winter heating season, a lower share of currently more profitable crude and NGLs in Pennsylvania's output compared to nearby West Virginia and Ohio, and the June start-up of a new gas pipeline in West Virginia , where some Pennsylvania production may have shifted. Rig counts reflect expected prices roughly six months in the future, accounting for the lag between when the drilling of a well begins and when its production is sold. The April 2025-March 2026 strip price at the Leidy Line trading hub, a bellwether for Marcellus shale output in northeast Pennsylvania, was $2.63/mmBtu, according to Argus forward curves. Prices for crude and NGLs in 2024 have been more resilient than US gas prices, which have languished after a warmer-than-normal 2023-24 winter left the US gas market oversupplied. This price dynamic may be why the other two main Appalachian gas producing states have not mirrored Pennsylvania's drilling slowdown. The Ohio rig count rose by one this week to 10, the same number as a year earlier, while the West Virginia rig count was unchanged at 10, up by three from a year earlier. Drilling productivity has also improved dramatically in the past 17 years, surging to 21 Bcf/d (595mn m³/d) in July from 471mn cf/d in July 2007, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Above-average temperatures were expected to blanket the US from November to January, according to the National Weather Service, portending another winter with lower gas demand. By Julian Hast Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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