Clean fuel credit not on Treasury priority list

: Agriculture, Battery materials, Biofuels, Emissions, Hydrogen
24/10/01

The US Department of Treasury says it will prioritize issuing final guidance around qualifying for a handful of Inflation Reduction Act clean energy tax credits before the end of President Joe Biden's administration, though guidance around a new credit for low-carbon fuels will likely take longer.

The agency's new timeline suggests that granular rules around how to qualify for the 2022 climate law's clean fuels incentive will ultimately be decided by the winner of this year's presidential election. Kicking off in January and lasting through 2027, the 45Z tax credit will replace a suite of expiring fuel-specific credits and offer up to $1/USG for low-carbon road fuels and up to $1.75/USG for low-carbon aviation fuels.

Treasury is still "actively" working on guidance around the 45Z incentive, Treasury acting assistant secretary for tax policy Aviva Aron-Dine told reporters today. But unlike for other credits, officials have not provided any timeline for proposing or finalizing that guidance or any signal of whether they could issue any safe harbor assurances before final guidance is available.

The Biden administration has not yet clarified how it will calculate greenhouse gas emissions or account for the benefits of "climate-smart" agricultural practices for fuels derived from crop feedstocks, potentially deterring investments until final guidance is available. The 45Z credit requires fuel to meet an initial carbon intensity threshold and then increases the subsidy as a fuel's greenhouse gas emissions fall.

Policy clarity is essential, biofuel groups say, since fuel and feedstock offtake contracts are hashed out months in advance and the credit is relatively short-lived compared to other Inflation Reduction Act incentives. Some farm state lawmakers have also pushed for final guidance to bar refiners using foreign feedstocks — such as used cooking oil from China — from being able to claim the credit.

The Biden administration still expects to finalize guidance for the 45V clean hydrogen tax credit by year-end out of recognition that the industry "needs certainty" to invest, Aron-Dine said. The final guidance will provide "appropriate adjustments and additional flexibilities" to help projects move forward, she said, while adhering to requirements to consider indirect greenhouse gas emissions caused by the production of clean hydrogen.

Treasury also expects to issue final guidance by the end of the administration on the 45Y clean electricity production credit and clean electricity investment credit, a technology-neutral tax credit it proposed earlier this year. The final guidance will continue the "explosive growth" of wind and solar and also provide tax credits to emerging technologies that produce no net greenhouse gas emissions, Aron-Dine said.

Other tax credits set to be finalized by the end of the administration include the section 48 investment tax credit and the 45X advanced manufacturing production credit that is supporting the buildout of domestic supply chains, Aron-Dine said.

By Cole Martin and Chris Knight

Related news posts

Argus illuminates the markets by putting a lens on the areas that matter most to you. The market news and commentary we publish reveals vital insights that enable you to make stronger, well-informed decisions. Explore a selection of news stories related to this one.

25/05/15

Global battery demand rises close to 1TWh in 2024: IEA

Singapore, 15 May (Argus) — Global battery demand across electric vehicle (EV) and storage applications rose to almost 1TWh in 2024, according to energy watchdog the IEA, in its latest report. Demand was largely driven by EV sales growth, with EV battery demand growing by more than 25pc on the year to over 950GWh, mainly propelled by electric cars which accounted for over 85pc of EV battery demand, said the IEA in its EV Outlook 2025 . The almost 1TWh of demand is expected to more than triple to over 3TWh in 2030 under the IEA's stated policies scenario (Steps), which is based on countries' prevailing policies , with more demand from electric trucks despite electric cars still making up the majority of demand. EV battery demand rose by more than 30pc on the year in China, and currently takes up 59pc of total global EV battery demand. US demand has also grown, with the country taking up 13pc of the total share, on par with the EU. The IEA expects critical minerals supply surplus to persist over the next few years but cautioned that depressed prices could dissuade future investments and lead to supply shortages for lithium and nickel by 2030. "It will take about a decade before recycling has a significant impact on reducing primary mineral demand," said the IEA, citing feedstock limitations. Recent raw material prices for battery recyclers in China, the largest battery recycling market, remain higher than their battery recycling yields such as recycled lithium, nickel and cobalt, a Chinese battery recycler told Argus . Domestic battery recycling plants operating rates are "not high," the battery recycler said, with very thin activity in the domestic black mass market. Excessive battery capacity Global battery cell manufacturing capacity grew by almost 30pc in 2024 to 3.3TWh, more than triple the battery demand, according to the report. South Korean battery manufacturers accounted for over 400GWh of overseas battery manufacturing capacity in 2024, much higher than the 60GWh from Japanese manufacturers and 30GWh from Chinese manufacturers. South Korea's battery manufacturing is poised to further expand to more than 1TWh in 2030, almost double that of Chinese manufacturers, if all announced projects materialise. Global manufacturing capacity could grow to about 6.5TWh in 2030, about double the demand projected under IEA's Steps scenario, if all committed projects are realised. This would also entail China's share of global manufacturing capacity weakening from 85pc in 2024 to two-thirds by 2030. LFP battery share rises Lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries made up nearly half of the global EV battery market in 2024, said the IEA. Nearly all electric car LFP batteries sold in Europe or US were produced in China, which has a "de facto monopoly", said the IEA, with LFP becoming more attractive to European original equipment manufacturers looking to cut production costs. South Korean battery makers' market share in the EU fell to 60pc last year, down from 80pc in 2022, displaced by Chinese battery producers because the chemistry of LFP makes it more competitive, according to IEA. But top South Korean battery makers — LG Energy Solution , Samsung SDI , SK On — have all unveiled plans to mass produce EV LFP batteries over the coming years, looking to compete in the space. Japanese battery makers meanwhile saw their US market share fall to around 48pc, eroded by South Korea. South Korea took up 35pc of US market share last year, up from 20pc in 2022. Japanese domestic LFP development is also facing challenges, with Japanese carmaker Nissan recently cancelling a LFP plant in Kyushu as it goes through a restructure. LFP's penetration in the southeast Asia, Brazil and India markets is rising even quicker, with LFP battery electric car shares surpassing 50pc in each of the countries in 2024, according to the report. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

UK ethanol sector sees lower prices from US trade deal

25/05/14

UK ethanol sector sees lower prices from US trade deal

London, 14 May (Argus) — The UK ethanol sector expects prices to fall because of the recent trade deal with the US, but participants are divided on the scale of the effect. The trade deal has cut import duties on US ethanol to zero on higher volumes than recent import levels, raising the prospect of large amounts of US product crossing the Atlantic. The UK was the second largest destination for US ethanol exports in 2024, taking more than 923mn l, or 13pc of all exports, according to US industry group Renewable Fuels Association. The UK imposed a duty of £16/hectolitre ($21/hectolitre) for undenatured ethanol and £8.50/hectolitre for denatured ethanol, which the trade deal will remove. Zero tariffs will be applied to up to 1.4bn l/yr. European renewable ethanol association ePure told Argus the deal presents a "huge problem" for UK and EU ethanol producers, a view echoed by some UK market participants. But some active in the UK ethanol market have said that while they do not expect greater amounts of ethanol to arrive in the country, they do anticipate lower prices and lower domestic production. The operators of the UK's two major ethanol-producing facilities, Vivergo and Cropenergies, said there will be zero tariffs on "the size of the UK's whole ethanol market", and said they may have to close. According to Argus data the total UK production capacity for wheat-based ethanol is over 736mn l/yr. The National Farmers' Union expressed concern about the deal's effect on arable farmers, and said it is "working through what this means for the viability of the domestic bioethanol production." Although a healthy share of the total import pool from the US is waste-based, the UK government is consulting on whether to continue classing the main waste feedstock imported from the US as eligible for double counting under its renewable transport fuel obligation (RTFO). Staging post UK producers may still seek to maximise imports from the US for onward export into the EU. The current EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) allows for zero tariffs and quotas on all trade of UK and EU goods that comply with appropriate rules or origin. But with this new deal, there is an increased chance of US ethanol entering the EU via the UK, Epure said. "Under existing customs rules US ethanol can be mixed with UK ethanol and thus avoid an EU duty," it said. This may include major proportion, which limits the share of non-originating materials to claim UK origin, or inward processing relief, which allows for imports to be processed without paying import duties or value added tax (VAT) before re-export. Some market participants contested the extent to which UK-EU flows of ethanol with partial US origin might happen, suggesting the imported ethanol would need to undergo a significant chemical change to be classified as duty free, such as being used as feedstock for products including ethyl tert-butyl ether (ETBE). EPure said the EU should be wary, and called for ethanol to be included in a final list of products subject to EU countermeasures, as it was in a recent proposal from the bloc currently under public consultation. By Toby Shay Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Quotas most likely option for DRC cobalt export restart

25/05/14

Quotas most likely option for DRC cobalt export restart

London, 14 May (Argus) — The resumption of cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) under a quota system appears almost inevitable, market participants said ahead of the Cobalt Institute's annual conference in Singapore this week. With cobalt prices rising and stocks tightening globally, market participants increasingly expect that the DRC's blanket cobalt export ban — implemented in late February — will transition into a more sustainable quota system. The current freeze has pushed up global cobalt prices, but also blocked the flow of royalties to the Congolese treasury, creating what several traders described as a politically deliberate but ultimately transitional phase. "This is not [Congolese trading and mining firm] Gecamines — it's Kinshasa, it's the ministry of mines, and ultimately it's the presidency," one trader said, emphasising the centralised nature of the decision-making this time around. The government's key grievance is financial, multiple sources agreed. Cobalt royalty revenues have collapsed in recent years, according to several market participants. "They've lost billions," said one source with direct links to the ministry of mines. "This only makes sense if they replace the ban with something dynamic that keeps prices up and restarts the royalty flow." Prices up, revenues frozen Prices for cobalt hydroxide have nearly doubled since February, from $6/lb cif China to close to $12/lb — a sharper jump than during than any previous bans on DRC exports, including the ban on Chinese producer CMOC's Tenke Fungerume mine in 2022, now the largest cobalt mine in the world ( see graph ). But with exports halted, the Congolese government has reaped none of the upside. "They got the prices up, sure — but right now, there's nothing coming in. No exports mean no royalties," one trader noted, "A quota is the only real way forward." Market participants expect any such quota regime to be modelled loosely on Opec, with the DRC restricting supplies in a co-ordinated way to support pricing. "The officials running this are oil and gas guys," one source who has met with the DRC delegation said. "They want Opec on steroids. They've said that outright." Others draw comparisons with Indonesia, which already operates a quota system for its nickel ore mining permits and mixed-hydroxide-precipitate (MHP), which contains cobalt. "Indonesian quotas are real, but they're built into nickel flows. It's not exactly apples to apples," a trader said. "So for Indonesia to reduce cobalt output, they'd have to reduce nickel output, which they don't want to do." Stockpiles thinning, squeeze ahead Record-high first-quarter cobalt hydroxide production by CMOC and global trafing and mining firm Glencore — at 30,000t and 9,500t, respectively — suggests a healthier supply picture than is really the case. "Production hasn't stopped, but that's the point — if exports don't resume, stocks will just build up inside the DRC or dry up abroad," a trader said. Some estimates place global cobalt hydroxide inventories at 50,000–70,000t, but availability depends heavily on who holds what. "20,000t with a larger producer is not the same as 20,000t with a small recycler," one trader said. "Some are more inclined to sit on it and wait for prices to jump." Multiple participants expect a squeeze to emerge in the international market by August, as final pre-ban shipments are consumed and no new material enters the pipeline. "One producer told people there'd be no more shipments after May/June," one source with direct knowledge of trading flows said. "That means by July, China is chewing through remaining stocks — and by August, you're in crunch territory." Some traders are already stockpiling, with exporters deliberately delaying cargoes to benefit from rising prices, market participants said. Strong enforcement The DRC's export restrictions are being heavily enforced. A customs brigade with military backing was deployed recently to Kasumbalesa on the DRC-Zambia border — the country's only significant cobalt export route — to prevent smuggling and enforce the ban. "People writing about illegal smuggling clearly haven't been to Katanga. There's one road. One crossing. It's tightly controlled," a trader told Argus . The new level of sophistication, some argue, is why a transition to quotas feels inevitable. "Extending the ban helps no one in the long term — not the DRC, not Chinese refiners, not the market," an industry consultant said. "A quota system is the only option that gives them both price and payment." Market sentiment remained mixed ahead of next week's conference, with cobalt spot trading thin, ranging from $15-16/lb in-warehouse Rotterdam for Chinese material, $17-18/lb for western standard grade and $19-20/lb for alloy grade. Whether the announcement comes in Singapore or in the weeks that follow, few now doubt the final outcome. "This [export ban] isn't a one-off," one participant said. "It's the start of a new model. The days of Congo flooding the market and watching others profit are over." By Chris Welch Cobalt prices post-DRC supply shocks pc Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indonesian cobalt output capacity to double by 2027

25/05/14

Indonesian cobalt output capacity to double by 2027

Singapore, 14 May (Argus) — Indonesian cobalt production capacity from its high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) operations will more than double to 114,000t in 2027 from 55,000t in 2024, National Economic Council member and executive secretary Septian Hario Seto has said. But there will probably not be significant capacity expansion beyond 2027, Seto told the Cobalt Congress 2025 conference on 14 May in Singapore. Xu Aidong, cobalt branch chief expert and adviser at the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, agreed that capacity will probably stick given slower-than-expected nickel consumption growth and rising costs for HPAL projects that include increasing sulphur prices used in hydrometallurgical production lines. Seto expects cobalt prices to trend up further if the Democratic Republic of Congo's (DRC) cobalt export ban continues but warned that the measure could backfire as it could prompt technology adaptation to lower the cobalt content in batteries. "I think we [saw] in 2017 and 2018 [that the battery sector] responded with massive adoption of the [nickel-cobalt-manganese] NCM 811, so you are compromising long-term demand of cobalt with this one," Seto said. Mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) production in Indonesia is still able to generate 30-40pc profit margins even with nickel prices around $15,000/t, Seto added, attributing that partly to the cobalt content. The country exported almost 1.56mn t of MHP last year, with cobalt exports up to around 44,350t. Indonesia previously separated the MHP before further processing into nickel sulphate and cobalt sulphate. "But nowadays, we directly ship the MHP and there is one factory in Indonesia that can process further the MHP going into the precursor without doing the crystallisation of the nickel sulphate," Seto said. "As long as we are increasing the MHP production in Indonesia, it's not possible to [be asked] to control this cobalt," Seto said, adding that the country does not see cobalt as an "independent mineral" but one closely intertwined with nickel. Indonesia's position on nickel is very similar to the DRC's position on cobalt, said Seto, where the biggest producer has to be "careful" and "responsible" in ensuring sufficient supply in the market or risk being treated as "not reliable". A DRC decision on whether to extend the export ban or impose a strict limitation of exports "in part" has yet to be made . The country's mineral markets regulator Arecoms said during the conference that it will communicate its decision as planned at the end of the cobalt export suspension period, at odds with Chinese market participants' expectations for the conference. By Joseph Ho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

MUFG to invest $30mn in Japanese biofuels firm Euglena

25/05/14

MUFG to invest $30mn in Japanese biofuels firm Euglena

Singapore, 14 May (Argus) — Japanese bank MUFG has agreed to purchase up to $30mn of shares in Japanese biofuels developer Euglena, which will allow Euglena to increase its share in a joint venture to build a biorefinery in Malaysia. Euglena will issue the shares in stages via their overseas special purpose company Euglena Sustainable Investment (Esil). Esil currently owns a 5pc equity of the joint venture and plans to increase its share up to the maximum of 15pc with the new funding. The other partners are Eni's biofuels unit Enilive and Malaysian state-owned refiner Petronas' Petronas Mobility Lestari. The biorefinery started construction in the fourth quarter of 2024, and is scheduled to start operations in the latter half of 2028. It will have the capacity to process about 650,000 t/yr of raw materials, such as used vegetable oils, animal fats, waste from the processing of vegetable oils and other biomass including microalgae oils, to produce up to 725 kilolitres/yr of SAF, hydrogenated vegetable oil (HVO) and bio-naphtha. The biofuel developer, whose initial business was the cultivation of the microalgae Euglena for food, had previously also announced that it will put more emphasis on UCO procurement and SAF supply to domestic consumers. Euglena aims to achieve a production capacity of 100,000 t/yr of microalgae-based oil by the 2030s, and is currently working with Petronas' subsidiary Petronas Research in a joint study to establish technology for large-scale microalgae production. But microalgae has so far faced challenges in commercialising as a biofuels feedstock, including high production costs, difficulty scaling up and low lipid yields. By Deborah Sun Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Business intelligence reports

Get concise, trustworthy and unbiased analysis of the latest trends and developments in oil and energy markets. These reports are specially created for decision makers who don’t have time to track markets day-by-day, minute-by-minute.

Learn more