Mexico's Sheinbaum to present energy transition plan

: Crude oil, Electricity
24/10/01

Mexico's new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, will present a plan to attract new investments in the electricity sector and an "ambitious" energy transition strategy.

Sheinbaum, Mexico's first female president, ratified the commitment made by former-president Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of maintaining 54pc of the electricity generation in the hands of state-owned utility CFE and providing "clear rules" for private-sector companies to invest in the remaining 46pc.

In her inauguration speech to congress, Sheinbaum said it was in the best interest of all Mexicans to have a strong public company in the electricity sector to provide cheap power to households. She promised that prices for electricity, gasoline and LPG will not rise faster than general inflation.

The Mexican congress approved the process to change the constitution to give more power to CFE in prioritizing electricity dispatch over private-sector companies.

Sheinbaum also said crude production will not go above 1.8mn b/d during her term, as it is "impossible" to reach the 3mn b/d promised under the 2014 energy reform without harming the environment. The increase in energy demand in Mexico will be met by renewable sources, she said.

Among her economic priorities is attracting more international manufacturers to bring their plants to Mexico to take advantage of nearshoring — moving production closer to main markets.

Her administration will also continue to implement the controversial bill to overhaul the judicial system passed in the last month.

By Edgar Sigler

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24/12/13

Argentina’s renewables to get boost in 2025

New York, 13 December (Argus) — Argentina's renewables sector is looking at a rosier outlook in 2025 supported by new legislation and improved economic conditions. The country's renewable energy legislation, which was enacted in 2015 and expires at the end of 2025, stipulates a target of 20pc participation of renewables — excluding hydropower plants greater than 50MW — by the end of 2025. The country has not met annual targets, but there is growing confidence that it could come close to the goal by the end of next year. Renewable sources covered 15pc of the demand in October, according to the latest report from the energy secretariat, up from 13.5pc in July. The country added 373MW in new renewable generating capacity in the first three quarters of this year. The trade organization of wind energy CEA, estimates that 700MW in new solar and wind capacity will be added in 2025. A replacement renewable law focused primarily on investment, which the ruling Libertad Avanza party plans to submit in early 2025, and economic deregulation underway has the sector confident that financing for projects will soon be readily available, ushering in a boost in private investment for renewables. Ignacio Criado, a partner at the Tanoira Cassagne law firm who focuses on renewable energy, said he expects the country to be close to the 20pc renewable target by the end of 2025 and that there will be sustained growth in coming years. "More players are interested in the construction of renewable energy plants, with solar power in the north and wind in the south," said Criado. He said that the country's increasing economic stability and a government program providing incentives for large-scale investments, known as the RIGI, are fostering interest among investors. Argentina's economy, while still in tough shape, has improved in the year since president Javier Milei took office. While annualized inflation is still in triple digits, the monthly rate fell from 25.5pc in December 2023 to 2.4pc in November, according to the statistics agency. It was 112pc in the 12 months through November. The economy shrank by 3.4pc in the first half of the year and will contract by around 3pc the full year, but is expected to grow by 5pc in 2025, according to the IMF. During a 10 December address marking his first year in office, Milei said tax reform and elimination of exchange rate and customs controls would be forthcoming, adding to investment flows. RIGI boost The administration has already received requests under the RIGI mechanism for $11.8bn in investment, primarily in energy projects, Milei said. Among the projects in line for the RIGI is the state-owned YPF Luz's 305MW El Quemado solar plant, the first stage of which should be ready by 2026. In early December, the state's energy wholesaler, Cammesa, awarded a contract for eight new renewable projects with a combined capacity of 561MW. It received 31 proposals for a total of 1,639MW. Of the projects, 345MW were awarded to Genneia, the country's largest renewable company with more than 1GW in installed capacity, and 88MW to Australia's Fortescue for its Cerro Policia wind farm in the southern Rio Negro province. The energy will be used for its planned low-carbon hydrogen project. These projects should start coming on line from the end of 2025 in throughout 2026. As of October, Argentina had 6.56GW in installed renewable capacity, including 4.12GW in wind, up by 11.2pc from a year ago, 1.63GW in solar, up by 19.6pc, and 82MW in biogas, up by 5.4pc. It also had 524MW in small hydroelectric plants and 201MW in biomass, with no new capacity from a year earlier. Large-scale hydroelectric plants totalled 9.63GW, while thermal electric plants totalled 25.28GW and nuclear plants 1.75GW. By Lucien Chauvin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Norway's 500MW cables at risk if price link proved

24/12/13

Norway's 500MW cables at risk if price link proved

London, 13 December (Argus) — Norway will not replace the two oldest transmission cables between it and Denmark, with a combined capacity of 500MW, if the national transmission system operator (TSO) confirms they "harm the national power system", energy minister Terje Aasland told Argus . If the Skagerak 1 and 2 cables are found to contribute to "high prices", as seen this week, and additionally "reinforced negative price contagion", the minister explained, the government will not renew the cables. The minister's comments come as the ruling Labour party's programme committee — of which the minister is not a member — agreed to block extending or replacing the ageing cables as they approach the end of their operational lifetime. There has yet been no formal application to renew the Norwegian-Danish Skagerak 1 and 2 links, which the minister said means "there is nothing to say yes or no to" at the moment. Norwegian TSO Statnett is currently investigating the possible renewal and, alternatively, the effects of not renewing the link, the minister confirmed. Skagerak 1 and 2, commissioned in 1976 and 1977, respectively, are part of a trio of cables, including the 500MW Skagerak 3 interconnector connected in 1993, linking Norway's NO2 with Denmark's DK1 bidding area. By Daniel Craig Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canada sets 2035 emissions reduction goal

24/12/13

Canada sets 2035 emissions reduction goal

London, 13 December (Argus) — Canada has set a new 2035 climate goal, aiming to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 45-50pc by 2035, from a 2005 baseline. This builds on its 2030 target of a 40-45pc emissions reduction, again from 2005 levels. Canada's emissions had been in 2015 projected to rise by 9pc by 2030, from 2005 levels, "but we are now successfully bending the curve", the Canadian environment and climate change ministry said. The newly-announced target is in line with a pledge Canada made at the UN Cop 29 climate summit last month. Countries that are party to the Paris climate accord must submit new national climate plans by 10 February 2025, to cover a timeframe up to 2035. Canada, the EU, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland committed at Cop 29 to set out new plans with "steep emissions cuts" that are consistent with the global 1.5°C temperature increase limit sought by the Paris Agreement. The plans are known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Canada's NDC is being considered by the cabinet, and the country plans to submit it by the deadline, Canadian climate change ambassador Catherine Stewart told Cop 29 delegates on 21 November. Tackling climate change is "both an environmental imperative and an economic opportunity", she added. The target was informed "by the best available science, Indigenous Knowledge, international climate change commitments, consultations with provinces and territories and expert advice", the ministry said. Canada will also "seek feedback on how to help companies take advantage of the economic opportunities that come with building a clean economy" in the near term, it added. Although the plan is not yet available, the ministry said that it will examine the role of carbon removal technologies for the energy transition. "Canadians are increasingly experiencing record-breaking extreme weather," the ministry noted. The country experienced record wildfires in 2023. Carbon emissions from wildfires this year were second only to the "unprecedented" levels in 2023, EU earth-monitoring service Copernicus found this month. Canada has a legally binding target of net zero emissions by 2050. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec+ decision reduces potential supply surplus: IEA

24/12/12

Opec+ decision reduces potential supply surplus: IEA

London, 12 December (Argus) — The recent decision by Opec+ members to delay a planned output increase has "materially reduced" a potential supply surplus next year, the IEA said today. Opec+ producers earlier this month pushed back a plan to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary crude production cuts by three months to April 2025 and to return the full amount over 18 months rather than a year. Still, the oil market in 2025 is still likely to be significantly oversupplied, the IEA said in its Oil Market Report (OMR), given persistent overproduction by some Opec+ members, strong supply growth from outside the alliance and modest global oil demand growth. The Paris-based agency's base case forecasts show supply exceeding demand by 950,000 b/d next year, even if all Opec+ cuts remain in place. The supply surplus would increase to 1.4mn b/d if alliance members start increasing output from April as planned, the IEA said. This is far from guaranteed. Opec+ has already delayed its plan to increase output three times and continues to say a decision to unwind will depend on market conditions. While the IEA expects oil demand growth to remain subdued next year, its latest forecasts show a slightly higher outlook than in its previous report . The agency revised up its oil demand growth forecast for 2025 by 90,000 b/d to 1.1mn b/d, largely because of China's recently announced economic stimulus measures. This would see global consumption rise to 103.9mn b/d. But the IEA downgraded its oil demand growth forecast for this year by 80,000 b/d, to 840,000 b/d, mostly because of "weaker-than-expected non-OECD deliveries in countries such as China, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia." It said non-OECD oil demand growth in the third quarter, at 320,000 b/d, was the lowest since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. The IEA said lacklustre demand growth this year and next reflects "a generally sub-par macroeconomic environment and changing patterns of oil use." Increases will be driven by petrochemical feedstocks, and demand for transport fuels "will continue to be constrained by behavioural and technological progress." On supply, the IEA downgraded its growth estimates for 2025 by 110,000 b/d to 1.9mn b/d. Most of this will come from non-Opec+ countries such as the US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil and Argentina. The agency nudged lower its supply forecasts for this year, by 10,000 b/d to 630,000 b/d. The IEA said global observed oil stocks declined by 39.3mn bl in October, led by an "exceptionally sharp" fall in oil product inventories due to low refinery activity coupled with higher demand. It said preliminary data show a rebound in global inventories in November. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

EPA defends 'good neighbor' efficacy

24/12/11

EPA defends 'good neighbor' efficacy

Houston, 11 December (Argus) — The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) responded to concerns raised by the US Supreme Court in June by defending the efficacy of the "good neighbor" plan in reducing NOx emissions regardless of the number of participating states. The high court's concerns were over the issue of severability — that is, how effective the good neighbor plan would be in lowering ozone season NOx emissions if only some of the original 23 states participated. In other words, it is the question of whether the emissions limits placed on states as part of the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) cap-and-trade program under the plan would have changed based on the number of participating states. In a notice published in the Federal Register on Tuesday, EPA rejected the idea that the effectiveness of the good neighbor plan — and as a result, the NOx emissions limits imposed on each state — would wane if the number of participating states changed. Instead, the agency said that its plan is "by design severable by state" because the NOx emissions limits are imposed on individual sources rather than the states themselves. Each participating state's emissions obligations depend on the number of obligated power plants, their emissions and the types of emissions reduction measures they already have in place. As a result, pausing the imposition of tighter NOx limits under the good neighbor plan in certain states does not affect the NOx limits imposed in other participating states, EPA said. In a similar vein, EPA addressed concerns that the larger version of the CSAPR Group 3 seasonal NOx allowance trading program established under the good neighbor plan would become more illiquid if it covered fewer states than planned, which could lead to a smaller supply of allowances and higher prices. Calling those concerns "unjustified", the agency said that states can withdraw their sources from a trading program by submitting their own ozone reduction plans. EPA also cited previous instances from past cross-state ozone programs where the number of participating states has changed, noting that there has been no evidence of allowance shortages. EPA also responded to concerns that it used an inconsistent methodology to determine emissions obligations for each source — including the emissions reduction strategies that could be used and their associated costs. The agency said it used a methodology that was "nearly identical to prior good neighbor rules" and considered NOx reduction technologies that have been in place "for decades throughout the US." The severability issue was raised by the Supreme Court in June, when it paused implementation of the good neighbor plan nationwide. The court majority said that EPA did not provide a sufficient explanation in response to public comments from states that highlighted those concerns — especially because, until the court issued its stay, only 10 states were participating in the good neighbor plan because of lower court stays. But in September, the US Court of Appeals for the DC Circuit allowed EPA to respond to the issue of severability, while it paused related litigation. EPA finalized the "good neighbor" plan last year to help downwind states meet the 2015 federal ozone standards. It imposed more rigorous CSAPR ozone season NOx emissions limits on more than 20 states and called for new NOx limits for industrial sources. Illiquidity has been persistent in the CSAPR market, depressing activity and keeping prices steady for almost a year because of uncertainty surrounding the numerous legal challenges against the plan. The ozone season runs from May-September each year. With plan halted for the time being, EPA has returned to less-stringent seasonal NOx budgets and reshuffled the remaining participating states into the Group 2 and new "expanded" Group 2 markets, leaving the Group 3 market empty. By Ida Balakrishna Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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