US September OCTG, line pipe imports may rise

: Crude oil, Metals, Natural gas, Pipe and tube
24/10/09

US imports of oil country tubular goods (OCTG) and line pipe products could increase in September.

US OCTG imports could be 114,500 metric tonnes (t) in September, which would represent an increase of 15,200t compared to the prior year, according to license data from the US Department of Commerce, which is subject to change.
If realized the September OCTG rise would be driven by a potential 19,800t increase from the prior year from South Korea to 60,600t and a 7,700t increase in volumes from Taiwan, up from none in the prior year.
Those increases are partially offset by a possible 8,400t decrease in volumes from Canada and a 5,100t decrease from Mexico.
If September OCTG import volumes do rise, it will be only the second month since May 2023 that import volumes have increased year over year.
Line pipe imports may jump by 19,200t from the prior year to 101,800t.
That increase could be driven by a 9,500t increase in line pipe of unspecified diameter from South Korea to 34,700t, and a 3,900t increase in Japanese volumes for line pipe less than or equal to 16in.

By Rye Druzchetta

US pipe and tube import licenses					metric tonnes
Product	Sep-24	Sep-23	Difference	±%	Aug-24
OCTG	114,521	99,310	15,211	15.3%	129,096
Line pipe*	101,777	82,589	19,188	23.2%	84,940
Standard	56,725	56,488	237	0.4%	63,929
Heavy Structural Shapes	57,682	43,364	14,318	33.0%	66,669
US Department of Commerce; September 2024 data is license data, which is subject to change.
*Line pipe is all diameters.

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25/12/23

Viewpoint: Canadian heavy TMX crude to grow into Asia

Houston, 23 December (Argus) — Heavy sour Canadian crude exports are likely to expand further into the Asia-Pacific market in 2026 as Canadian output increases and US west coast refinery closures weaken US demand. Around two-thirds of all Canadian crude exports from the 890,000 b/d Trans Mountain pipeline system were destined to Asia-Pacific year-to-date November 2025, with the balance heading to the US west coast. Just over three-quarters of the 375,000 b/d of Canadian heavy crude exports from Vancouver were destined to Asia-Pacific year-to-date November 2025, according to data from analytics firms Vortexa and Kpler. The balance out of the Trans Mountain system headed to the US west coast. This is up from a roughly 60/40 split in the second half of 2024 following the 540,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) startup in May of that year. US west coast customers received 80,000 b/d of heavy sour Canadian crude during the first 11 months of 2025, 25pc less than the second half of 2024. This is despite total heavy exports from Vancouver averaging 27pc higher this year so far. Heavy crude exports are expected to keep growing in 2026 as increased western Canadian production meets limited southbound pipeline capacity to the US. In January 2026, Canadian pipeline operator Enbridge rejected 13pc of heavy and light crude nominations on its 3.1mn b/d Mainline to the US as Alberta production surges in the colder months. But the Trans Mountain system has accepted all crude nominations since TMX came on line in May 2024 and the system has room to export more crude. Trans Mountain reported that the pipeline ran at 87pc capacity in the third quarter of 2025 . Canadian crude and condensate production is projected to average a record-high of 4.85mn b/d in 2026, 80,000 b/d above 2025 levels, according to Argus Consulting, a division of Argus Media. China thirst for heavy grows Any increase in exports is expected to head towards the Asia-Pacific region, specifically China. Chinese interest in heavy crude is expected to grow next year as refineries bring on line increasingly advanced cracking units to improve petrochemical yields . This increase in petrochemical output will come at the expense of road fuels, as rising electric vehicle use and low construction-sector activity hit Chinese gasoline and diesel demand. Heavy Canadian crude tends to be the most competitively-priced, unsanctioned option for Chinese refiners. Asia-Pacific buyers more generally have sought Canadian heavy crude as a substitute for restrained supplies of heavy sour Venezuelan Merey and Arab Heavy. Saudi Arabia's state-owned Saudi Aramco may be keeping more heavy crude for refining, while market confidence in Merey supply is weak following a US seizure of an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela on 10 December and the US declaring a blockage on Venezuela exports on 16 December. Meanwhile, shipments of Arab Heavy have dropped by 280,000 b/d to around 560,000 b/d this year, according to Vortexa data. As Asia-Pacific interest in Canadian crude continues to grow, US west coast demand will continue to fall. On the heels of Phillips 66 closing its 139,000 b/d Los Angeles, California, refinery, Valero is likely to shutter its 145,000 b/d Benicia refinery near San Francisco in April 2026. Valero is evaluating alternatives for its 85,000 b/d Wilmington refinery in Los Angeles. At the start of 2025, these three refineries made up 23pc of Californian refinery capacity, and combined took 30,000 b/d of Cold Lake during January-June 2025, according to EIA data. As available Canadian crude supplies grow, the ability to fully load Aframax vessels at the Westridge Marine Terminal in British Colombia will allow increased volumes to be exported. Dredging at the terminal is set to be completed by late 2026 or early 2027. Draft restrictions limit most Aframax vessels to around 550,000 bl at the terminal for heavy crude, and 600,000 bl for some lighter crudes. Post-dredging, those same ships could carry around 700,000-750,000 bl. In the long term, Trans Mountain is looking to boost pipeline flows to meet the increased shipping capacity, including the use of drag-reducing agents that should add another 85,000-90,000 b/d by 2027 to pipeline capacity, according to Trans Mountain. By John Cordner Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Ausblick Biomethan: Chancen und Hindernisse im EU-Markt

25/12/23

Ausblick Biomethan: Chancen und Hindernisse im EU-Markt

Hamburg, 23 December (Argus) — Der europäische Biomethanmarkt wird in 2026 ein regional ungleichmäßiges Wachstum verzeichnen. Verzögerte Umsetzungen der RED III und ungelöste politische Fragen bremsen den Markthochlauf. Gleichzeitig bleibt die Schifffahrt ein zentraler Nachfragetreiber — vor allem für zertifiziertes, subventioniertes Biomethan. Die überarbeitete EU-Richtlinie für erneuerbare Energien (RED III) gibt den Mitgliedstaaten bis 2030 zwei Optionen, um die Klimaschutzziele der EU zu erreichen: Entweder können die Staaten ihre Treibhausgasemissionen bis 2030 um 14,5 % zu senken, oder sie können einen Anteil von 29 % ihres Energiebedarfs aus erneuerbaren Quellen decken. RED II verlangte lediglich einen Anteil von 14 % erneuerbarer Energien. Einige Länder wie Deutschland haben ihre nationalen Umsetzungspläne der Vorgaben von RED III bereits vorgestellt und planen, diese im kommenden Jahr umzusetzen. Mehrere Länder wie die Niederlande oder Frankreich setzen zukünftig auch auf ein THG-System, wie es in Deutschland nun schon seit Jahren existiert. Biomethan mit niedriger oder negativer Kohlenstoffintensität wird damit zum bevorzugten Kraftstoff, um die Verpflichtungen zu erfüllen — vor allem in den Niederlanden, wo es bisher hinter vergleichsweise günstigeren Biokraftstoffen zurückblieb. Eine weitere EU-Verordnung, die den Einsatz von Biomethan begünstigt, ist FuelEU Maritime. Diese trat im Januar 2025 in Kraft und verpflichtet Reedereien, die Emissionen ihrer Flotten in den Jahren 2025 und 2026 um jeweils 2 % pro Jahr zu senken. Übererfüllung kann über Pooling-Systeme vermarktet werden. Dies hat sich für das Bunkering von Bio-LNG in 2025 als besonders profitabel erweisen. Die Regelung hat die Preise für Herkunftsnachweise (HKNs, oder englisch: RGGOs) stark beeinflusst und dürfte 2026 weiter für Dynamik sorgen. Neue Systeme, entweder unter RED III oder nationalen Verpflichtungen, die 2026 in Kraft treten, werden Nachfrage erzeugen, die mit dem Bedarf aus der Schifffahrt um das Angebot konkurrieren muss. Der größte Teil des niederländischen und dänischen Biomethanangebots für 2026 ist bereits für den maritimen Sektor vorgesehen. Wachstum in den Niederlanden Neben der Umstellung auf die THG-basierte Verpflichtung im Rahmen des sogenannten ERE-Zertifikatssystem unter RED III haben die Niederlande im November mit der Arbeit an einer "Green Gas Blending Obligation" begonnen. Eine Umsetzung vor Ende 2027 erscheint zwar unwahrscheinlich, doch die Pläne stützen vorerst die Preise für HKNs. Die Liquidität von niederländischem Biomethan könnte steigen, wenn die Regierung die Massenbilanzierung von Biomethan genehmigt. [Jedoch, weil hier ein Wiederspruch kommt]Ein entsprechender Antrag wurde im November im Parlament eingebracht, doch eine jüngste Regierungsantwort deutet darauf hin, dass dieser nicht von Erfolg gekrönt sein wird. Bio-LNG muss, wie auch in Deutschland, unsubventioniert sein, zertifiziert sein und physisch geliefert werden, um sich für ERE-Zertifikate zu qualifizieren, andernfalls wird es bei der Berechnung des Gesamtmandats eines Kraftstoffanbieters mit einer fossilen CI von 94 g CO2e/MJ behandelt. Stabiles Deutschland, Frankreich Deutschland wird 2026 die Doppelanrechnung für fortschrittliche Biokraftstoffe wie Biomethan auf die THG-Quote abschaffen. Bislang war dies stets ein großer Anreiz für den Einsatz von Biomethan als Kraftstoff. Trotzdem bleibt Biomethan in Deutschland der günstigste Weg, um die THG-Quote zu erfüllen, denn insbesondere güllebasiertes Biomethan hat ein konkurrenzloses Einsparungspotenzial. Auch die steigende THG-Quote könnte die Nachfrage stützen, jedoch bleibt der Absatzmarkt in Deutschland durch die limitierte Anzahl an LNG- und CNG-Fahrzeugen begrenzt. Frankreichs Beimischungspflicht für Biogas-Produktionszertifikate (CPB) tritt im Januar in Kraft und dürfte auch dort die Inlandsnachfrage deutlich ankurbeln. Die Umsetzung der RED III-Richtlinie, die ein neues, auf Treibhausgasen basiertes IRICC-Ticketsystem vorsieht, wurde jedoch auf 2027 verschoben. Das derzeitige energiebasierte TIRUERT-Ticketsystem für den Transport bleibt bis dahin bestehen, und bremst die Nutzung von Biomethan im Verkehrssektor. Ob IRICCs ab 2027 aus Biomethan generiert werden können, ist noch unklar. Die Verpflichtung, 3 % erneuerbares Gas im Verkehrssektor zu verwenden, tritt 2028 in Kraft und wird danach weiter ansteigen. Der grenzüberschreitende Handel und die Bunkerung von Bio-LNG dürften weiterhin eingeschränkt bleiben. Französisches Biomethan kann nur im Rahmen einer Ex-Domain-Annullierung exportiert werden, also durch die Löschung von HKNs in einem Land zur Verwendung in einem anderen. Dies birgt Risiken für Käufer, da die Eigentumsrechte an den Nachweisen nicht zwangsläufig übertragen werden. Subventioniertes Biomethan darf an französischen LNG-Terminals nicht für die Nutzung außerhalb des Landes verflüssigt werden. Französisches Bio-LNG muss über Massenbilanzierung an andere Terminals in der EU exportiert werden, um unter FuelEU Maritime genutzt zu werden. Großbritannien: Zugang zur EU unklar Der Zugang des Vereinigten Königreichs zu EU-Märkten hängt vom Zugang zur Unionsdatenbank für gasförmige Biokraftstoffe (UDB) ab, deren Start nun für Ende Sommer 2026 vorgesehen ist. Unklarheiten bei der Drittstaatenregelung könnten den EU-Handel einschränken — ein kritisches Thema, da das Vereinigte Königreich in den ersten drei Quartalen 2025 mehr als die Hälfte seiner HKNs exportierte, hauptsächlich nach Deutschland, Norwegen und in die Schweiz. Das Vereinigte Königreich prüft derzeit den Ersatz volumenbasierter RTFC-Tickets durch ein THG-basiertes System, doch Änderungen würden erst 2027 in Kraft treten. Fazit Insgesamt bleibt Biomethan in Europa in THG-basierten Systemen gut positioniert, doch Verzögerungen bei der Umsetzung von Vorschriften dürften das Gesamtwachstum des Marktes verlangsamen. Die Niederlande, Dänemark und Deutschland sollten weiterhin Anker für die europäische Preisbildung bleiben, und Spanien dürfte seine Rolle als maritimer Hub festigen. Doch mehrere Länder riskieren, zurückzufallen, wenn sie keine HKN-Register, Export-Hub-Zugänge, politische Anreize und Subventionsreformen einführen. Von Madeleine Jenkins & Svea Winter Senden Sie Kommentare und fordern Sie weitere Informationen an feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . Alle Rechte vorbehalten.

US economy expands by 4.3pc in 3Q

25/12/23

US economy expands by 4.3pc in 3Q

Houston, 23 December (Argus) — The US economy grew at the fastest pace in two years in the third quarter, reflecting increases in consumer spending, exports and government spending that were partly offset by a decrease in investment. Growth in gross domestic product (GDP) grew at a 4.3pc annual rate in the third quarter, according to the first of three estimates by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That compared with 3.8pc growth in the second quarter and a contraction of 0.6pc in the first quarter. The US GDP growth beat the expectations of analysts surveyed by Trading Economics, who were forecasting growth of 3.3pc. Because of the partial federal government shutdown that ended on 12 November, this initial report for the third quarter replaces the release of the advance estimate originally scheduled for 30 October and the second estimate originally scheduled for 26 November. The report showed that consumer spending continued to fuel the economic expansion, as President Donald Trump retracted or softened some of his announced tariffs. Federal Reserve policymakers expect only one quarter point rate cut next year, as they see GDP growth ending next year at 2.3pc, Consumer spending rose by 3.5pc in the third quarter, following 2.5pc growth in the second quarter. Gross private domestic investment fell by an annual 0.3pc following a 13.8pc decline in the second quarter. Residential investment fell by an annual 5.1pc for a second quarter, as construction and purchases remained constrained by high interest rates. Equipment investment rose by an annual 5.4pc, reflecting spending in artificial intelligence. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index increased by 2.8pc, accelerating from 2.1pc in the second quarter and well off the Fed's long-term target of 2pc. Exports rose by 8.8pc after a 1.8pc contraction in the prior quarter. Imports fell by 4.7pc after more than a 29pc annual decline in the second quarter. Imports subtract from growth. Net trade added 1.6 percentage points to the headline number. The "massive" contribution to headline growth from net trade "reflected goods imports continuing to slide, while exports remain resilient," Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a note. "That partly is due to the very limited retaliation to the tariffs from most trade partners, although the scale of the net trade boost to growth in (the third quarter) is unlikely to be sustained." Government spending rose by 2.2pc after a 0.1pc decline in the second quarter. Defense spending rose by 5.8pc. By Bob Willis Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: US FeTi to stagnate on oversupply in 2026

25/12/23

Viewpoint: US FeTi to stagnate on oversupply in 2026

Houston, 23 December (Argus) — An expected influx of ferro-titanium to the US is likely to continue to pressure prices in 2026 after imports surged this year, driven largely by weakness in the European steel market. Overseas ferro-titanium producers — facing lackluster demand in Europe — sought to take advantage of an arbitrage opportunity increasingly beginning in June, as offtake remained stronger in the US. European steel association Eurofer attributed the weakness in the European steel industry to declines in consumption from automotive and construction sectors because of volatility caused by the US's 15pc tariff on imports of EU-produced cars and heightened global tensions over country-specific tariffs. Ongoing economic uncertainty brought on by the tariffs restrained growth opportunities in manufacturing as trade disruptions and geopolitical tensions rose, according to Eurofer. US imports of ferro-titanium increased during the January-September period by 18.6pc to 1,804 metric tonnes (t) compared with the same year-prior period, according to the most recent data from the US Department of Commerce, which was delayed by the partial US government shutdown. Imports from top suppliers the UK and Canada dipped down by 10.6pc and 7.2pc, respectively, to 669t and 335t. Meanwhile, imports from Latvia surged 148pc to 447t, the largest increase, and metal began to trickle in more competitively from South Korea and Poland. The September data shows an increase of 119pc to 217t in imports from a year earlier. Five-year low prices persist Sell-side sources told Argus they hope the market has found its floor but remained concerned about ongoing weak European demand, should the pattern of offloading supply to the US continue into next year. Argus last assessed North American ferro-titanium prices at $2.15-2.30/lb fob warehouse on 18 December, down by 25pc from the beginning of the year and at a five-year low. Argus last assessed European ferro-titanium prices at $4.30-4.60/kg ($1.95-2.09/lb) on 18 December, down 26.4pc from the beginning of the year and also at a five-year low. US sellers expressed frustration and difficulty in booking spot sales. One trader cited persistent, unsustainably low prices as reasoning for exiting the ferro-titanium market altogether, with few expectations the market would rebound in the near future. Some sellers have opted to sit on their stocks, waiting for demand from cored-wire producers and mills to rebound in the new year, which is leading to a build-up of metal. Because of storage fees and other carrying costs, domestic traders said they would be unable to make a profit at the assessed range, aiming to offer in the range of $2.35-2.45/lb warehouse, but acknowledged no buying interest at those levels. During contract negotiations for 2026, some sellers incorporated price floors into their quotes in anticipation an oversupply of metal could further weigh on prices. Sellers repeatedly tied the health of the US ferro-titanium market to European mill demand, stating there would be no turnaround in US prices until offtake abroad picks up. Eurofer projected apparent steel consumption would recover slowly in 2026 but not before the first quarter. Possible tariff change could halt imports Efforts by US producers could relieve pressure, should Commerce back them. Domestic ferro-alloy producer Galt Alloy on 15 May asked Commerce to add ferro-titanium to the Section 232 national security tariffs on steel imports. The request was denied by the Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) on 1 August because the agency was already investigating the security implications of the US's ferro-titanium supply chains under a separate Section 232 investigation for processed critical minerals which is due to be finalized by mid-January. BIS is expected to provide a report with policy recommendations which could include tariffs to President Donald Trump once it finishes the investigation. Currently, ferro-titanium has a general duty rate of 3.7pc. By Jenna Baer Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Viewpoint: Chile vote may aid foreign Li firms

25/12/23

Viewpoint: Chile vote may aid foreign Li firms

Sao Paulo, 23 December (Argus) — Foreign miners eyeing Chile's world-leading lithium reserves may benefit from right-wing president-elect Jose Antonio Kast's victory on 14 December, which adds uncertainty to a pending deal between lithium producer SQM and state-owned mining company Codelco. Kast, Chile's new president plans to overhaul the national lithium strategy , which dates from outgoing left-wing president Gabriel Boric's administration. This adds to Kast's pro-market campaign promise to streamline the approval process for mining permits aiming to expedite investments in copper and lithium. If the newly elected president keeps his word, foreign companies could get access to Chile's large lithium reserves more easily, rekindling development of its stagnant lithium industry . Chile's restrictive lithium laws make it difficult for companies to operate independently, as 1979 legislation classifies lithium as a nuclear material, meaning firms can only mine it after obtaining a special operating contract known as a CEOL — which can take years to be approved. Under Boric's lithium strategy, companies seeking to explore lithium resources in the Atacama region must also form a joint venture (JV) with a state-owned Chilean firm, on top of securing the CEOL, further complicating entry for private and foreign investors. Kast has repeatedly said that he would make lithium "concessionable," meaning it would cease to be a nuclear material, which is subject to increased oversight. This would allow interested companies to extract it through a regular concession with a new, streamlined approval process, thus facilitating foreign investment and overruling Boric's CEOL-based lithium strategy. For that to happen, he would need to alter a pair of clauses of the national mining code, rectifying the changes through law. He has the full support of Chile's mining chamber to do so, but any changes would have to go through both congress and the senate, where his allies are a minority. Changing the national lithium strategy might not be a priority itself for Kast, but it can be bundled into his larger project of boosting mining through streamlined permitting and tax cuts, something he wants to achieve in his first 18 months in office. Kast takes the presidential seat on 11 March, but the governmental transition began on 15 December, a day after the election. Chile, the world's second-largest lithium producer, has failed to establish any new lithium extraction projects other than those of Albemarle and SQM, which have dominated the domestic industry since 1984 and 1997, respectively. It has long been Latin America's leading lithium producer, but some forecasts see Argentina catching up by 2030 . Albemarle and SQM will continue to be the only producers in Chile until at least 2032, when Rio Tinto is scheduled to begin production at its Altoandinos project , or in the event that SQM's project changes hands. Chilean exports of lithium carbonate and hydroxide declined nominally in 2025 through November to 235,365 metric tonnes (t), down from 240,237t in the same period in 2024, according to customs data. SQM-Codelco almost clear of risk despite election Although Kast has publicly opposed the SQM-Codelco joint venture, he has said he would honor the agreement if it is legally signed by the time he takes office, a condition that now appears close to being met. Chile's comptroller general's office (CGR) has acknowledged the legality of the contracts that underpin the partnership between Chilean private company SQM and state-owned miner Codelco, which would allow SQM to continue lithium exploration in the Atacama salt flats until 2060. CGR's acknowledgement was the last external approval that the joint venture needed to materialize. Codelco said that it and SQM will now move forward to the deal's closing stages. The deal still could be overturned if the companies fail to close by 11 March, but that risk is slim. By Pedro Consoli Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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