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Opec again lowers oil demand growth forecasts

  • : Crude oil
  • 24/10/14

Opec has cut its global oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 for a third month in a row, bringing its projections slightly closer to other outlooks that have long seen much lower consumption.

In its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) the producer group revised down its 2024 demand growth projection by 110,000 b/d to 1.93mn b/d, driven by China and the Middle East.

This is 320,000 b/d lower than the 2.25mn b/d growth Opec had been forecasting until it made its first downward revision for 2024 in August.

The biggest reason for the latest downgrade was China, where Opec now sees demand growing by 580,000 b/d in 2024 compared with 650,000 b/d in its previous report.

But Opec's demand growth forecasts remain bullish when compared with other outlooks. The IEA projects oil demand will increase by 900,000 b/d in 2024, while the EIA sees growth of 920,000 b/d.

The story is similar for 2025. While Opec today lowered its oil demand growth forecast by 100,000 b/d to 1.64mn b/d, this is still much higher than the IEA's forecast of 950,000 b/d and the EIA's 1.29mn b/d.

Expectations of weaker demand this year dragged on oil prices in recent weeks. Front-month Ice Brent crude futures prices fell to the lowest this year on 10 September at $69.19/bl, although rising tensions in the Middle East have more recently pushed the price closer to $80/bl.

On the supply side, the group kept its non-Opec+ liquids growth estimate for 2024 unchanged at 1.23mn b/d. It nudged up its forecast for next year by 10,000 b/d to 1.11mn b/d.

Opec+ crude production — including Mexico — fell by 557,000 b/d to 40.104mn b/d in September, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus. This is about 2.7mn b/d below Opec's projected call on Opec+ crude for this year, which stands at 42.8mn b/d.


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25/07/15

Brazil attorney general asks court to convict Bolsonaro

Brazil attorney general asks court to convict Bolsonaro

Sao Paulo, 15 July (Argus) — Brazilian prosecutors said the country's supreme court (STF) should find former president Jair Bolsonaro and seven other defendants guilty of an attempted coup. In a 517-page briefing that is part of attorney general Paulo Gonet's closing arguments at trial, prosecutors argue that Bolsonaro and the other defendants should be convicted of the crimes of armed criminal organization, attempted violent abolition of the democratic rule of law, coup d'état, damage qualified by violence and serious threat, and damage to government assets. Bolsonaro was the "main orchestrator and biggest beneficiary" of a plot to make sure that he stayed in power despite losing the election to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Gonet said during the trial. The plot included the 8 January 2023 storming of government buildings in the capital Brasilia and plans to kill his political opponents . Also as part of the plot, Bolsonaro used the power of the state and operated in a "persistent scheme" to attack public institutions and the succession process after the presidential election results, Gonet said. The seven other defendants include Bolsonaro's running mate Walter Braga Netto; former minister Augusto Heleno, who is also an army general; Bolsonaro's former justice minister Anderson Torres; former defense minister Paulo Sergio Nogueira; and Bolsonaro's top aide Mauro Cid. If convicted, Cid is expected to have his sentence suspended due to a plea bargain agreement signed with the federal police during investigations. Cid will now have 15 days to present his final defense. The other defendants will then have an additional 15 days to do the same. A date for the justices to begin deliberations will be set after STF receives all statements. That is expected for September this year, according to the government. If convicted, the defendants, including Bolsonaro, can face up to 43 years in prison. Bolsonaro, Trump push back Bolsonaro — who is barred from running for any public office until 2030 — used social media to call the trial a "shameful farce". Bolsonaro's trial gained a new spotlight after US president Donald Trump threatened to impose a 50pc tariff on imports from Brazil from 1 August, citing an alleged "witch hunt" against Bolsonaro. Lula said Brazil will reciprocate the US tariffs. "Any unilateral tariff increases will be addressed in accordance with Brazil's economic reciprocity law," he said on social media last week. He also added that the country "will not accept any form of tutelage." Lula signed the reciprocity law on Monday, according to the government. It authorizes Brazil to suspend trade, investment and obligation concessions to countries that impose unilateral barriers to Brazilian products in the global market. It also creates a committee — which will be comprised of the ministers of trade, finance, foreign relations and the chief of staff — that will be in charge of deciding trade responses to other countries' unilateral measures. By Lucas Parolin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec sticks to strong oil demand growth forecast


25/07/15
25/07/15

Opec sticks to strong oil demand growth forecast

London, 15 July (Argus) — Opec has kept its global oil demand growth projection for 2025 and 2026 broadly unchanged for the fourth consecutive month, maintaining a more bullish view than other major forecasters. The group expects demand to rise by 1.29mn b/d to 105.13mn b/d in 2025, and by a further 1.28mn b/d to 106.42mn b/d in 2026, according to its latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) published today. These projections remain significantly higher than those from the IEA and the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). The IEA forecasts demand growth of 700,000 b/d in 2025 and 720,000 b/d in 2026, while the EIA sees increases of 800,000 b/d this year and 1.05mn b/d next year. Crude prices were volatile in the first half of 2025, driven by uncertainty over US trade policy and geopolitical tensions linked to the Israel-Iran conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war. Despite this, "physical market fundamentals remained robust, with global oil supply and demand broadly balanced", Opec said. The group also pointed to a year-on-year decline in OECD oil inventories in the first half of 2025, alongside strong crude intake by refiners ahead of the seasonal rise in summer demand. On the supply side, Opec left its forecast for non-Opec+ liquids output growth unchanged at 810,000 b/d in 2025 and 730,000 b/d in 2026. Opec+ crude production — including Mexico — rose by 349,000 b/d to 41.56mn b/d in June, based on an average of secondary sources including Argus . The group estimates the call on Opec+ crude at 42.5mn b/d in 2025 and 42.9mn b/d in 2026. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico to negotiate Trump’s tariffs: Sheinbaum


25/07/14
25/07/14

Mexico to negotiate Trump’s tariffs: Sheinbaum

Mexico City, 14 July (Argus) — Mexico believes it can reach a deal with US president Donald Trump after he said he would impose 30pc tariffs on goods imported from Mexico beginning on 1 August. Over the weekend Trump made public on his social media platform a letter sent to Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum on Friday, threatening the new tariffs. The move could significantly disrupt crude flows from Mexico to the US, and refined product flows from the US to Mexico. Mexico's ministries of the economy, foreign affairs, finance, security and energy said in a statement Saturday that they met with their US counterparts on Friday to begin negotiations to head off the new tariffs before 1 August. The Mexican ministries called the new tariff plan "unfair treatment." With the working group— created by the US State Department — leading the talks, Sheinbaum said today she trusts a deal can be made before 1 August. It is not clear if the 30pc tariff threat applies to trade currently covered by the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USMCA). A White House official said previously that a 35pc tariff against Canada would not include USMCA-covered trade, but that those terms could change. Mexico also has a plan should no deal be reached, Sheinbaum said, without specifying details. When previously threatened with tariffs, Sheinbaum discussed plans to bolster Mexico's economy to become more resilient in the face of disrupted trade with its top trade partner, as well as unspecified retaliatory tariffs. But Trump vowed to raise the tariffs even higher if Mexico was to retaliate with its own measures. In his initial letter to Sheinbaum, Trump repeated previous justifications for higher tariffs by pointing to Mexico's "failure" to stop criminal groups from smuggling fentanyl into the US. Trump recognized that Mexico is working on the issue but does not consider these efforts fruitful: "Mexico has been helping me secure the border, BUT, what Mexico has done is not enough," Trump wrote. Trump sent a similar letter threatening tariffs on Friday to European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen. The US has clinched only one limited trade deal, which keeps in place a 10pc tariff on US imports from the UK while granting a lower-tariff import quota for UK-made cars. Trump has announced a deal with Vietnam, setting tariffs at 20pc. By Cas Biekmann Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US withdraws 300,000 bl of SPR crude for Exxon refinery


25/07/14
25/07/14

US withdraws 300,000 bl of SPR crude for Exxon refinery

Houston, 14 July (Argus) — The US Department of Energy has withdrawn 300,000 bl of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to loan to ExxonMobil, which has requested up to 1mn bl for its 522,500 b/d refinery in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, following a disruption to offshore crude supply. The crude was withdrawn this month from the SPR for the "Exxon Oil Exchange", according to a Department of Energy dashboard dated 11 July. It was unclear whether more withdrawals are planned under the exchange. ExxonMobil has recently warned suppliers of "serious quality issues" related to elevated levels of zinc in crude supplied by the Mars pipeline, which brings oil from a series of deepwater fields in the Gulf of Mexico to shore, according to market sources. In letters to suppliers, ExxonMobil said the crude quality issues were "... significantly affecting the operations at our Baton Rouge Refinery," and that it would stop accepting Mars crude "... in an effort to avoid further damages." The US Department of Energy said last week it had approved the SPR loan of up to 1mn bl to ExxonMobil to ensure a stable supply of transportation fuels in Louisiana and the US Gulf coast. The agency said the crude loan will support ExxonMobil's "restoration of refinery operations that were reduced due to an offshore supply disruption". Chevron, one of the producers that contributes crude to the Mars pipeline, said on Friday that it has "identified a potential contributing source to the Mars crude composition changes, which is associated with the start-up of a new well." In April Chevron started production at the new deepwater Ballymore field , which ties into the Mars system. The SPR's Bayou Choctaw site connects to refineries in Baton Rouge through the Capline pipeline. In 2021, the Department of Energy authorized a loan of up to 3mn bl from the SPR to ExxonMobil's refinery in Baton Rouge to address disruptions related to Hurricane Ida. ExxonMobil was initially scheduled to return the crude in 2022, but that deadline has been repeatedly pushed back, most recently requiring return of the crude by March 2026. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canada vows to cut red tape to woo energy firms


25/07/14
25/07/14

Canada vows to cut red tape to woo energy firms

Calgary, 14 July (Argus) — Canada's federal government is courting energy companies with the passage of a new law designed to fast-track major projects, but some developers might have reservations after a decade of frustration under Liberal party rule. Prime minister Mark Carney has pushed Bill C-5 through parliament to spark investment and project development by promising faster approval times while circumventing onerous rules made by previous Liberal-led governments. Oil and gas firms see this as a positive step, but with the law comes familiar ambiguity. To be considered for the new "national interest projects" list, a project should strengthen Canada's autonomy, provide economic benefits, have a high likelihood of completion, be in the interests of indigenous groups and contribute to meeting Canada's climate change objectives. How well a project satisfies these requirements will be at the discretion of Carney's cabinet and requires a leap of faith for supporters and opponents to trust the new process. Developers can expect a tighter two-year time limit for a federal decision, but how quickly the government navigates indigenous and environmental aspects remains to be seen. Such a consultation was seen as crucial under former prime minister Justin Trudeau, and Carney plans to strike a balance between these aspects and economic development. "Bill C-5 doesn't reform Canada's burdensome regulatory system, which is preventing needed investment," think-tank the Fraser Institute says. "It simply lets politicians decide who gets around it." Some indigenous and environmental groups fear that their concerns about potential projects might be played down under the new fast-track process. Such groups were critical of the legislation, not only because of its implications, but because the bill was fast-tracked, meaning debate and study were truncated. Steel of a deal Oil-rich Alberta's premier, Danielle Smith, and counterparts from other provinces are letting Carney's plan play out — for now. "You can only talk the talk for so long before you start putting some real action around it," Smith says, adding that she wants Alberta's projects on Carney's fast-track list by the autumn. Projects to move energy flows to Canada's east are once again being contemplated, with Smith signing an initial agreement last week with Doug Ford, premier of Ontario, which has been feeling the force of US tariff action. The two leaders will study more oil and gas pipelines between the two provinces built using Ontario steel — a prospect not possible under Trudeau. "Carney is no Justin Trudeau," Ford says, adding that Carney, unlike his predecessor, is bringing "the business approach to the federal government". Free enterprise is Alberta's forte, with TD Economics projecting the province to be a key economy for energy growth in 2025-26. An estimated C$17bn ($12bn) will be invested in oil sands in 2027, up by 28pc from 2024, the Alberta Energy Regulator says. Smith hopes to maintain strong capital inflow by securing more pipeline options, having set a goal of doubling Alberta's oil output from 4mn b/d in 2024. An economic revival seems poised to unfold across Canada, with a proposed LNG export project in Baie-Comeau, Quebec, unveiled this month, just days after LNG Canada's 14mn t/yr west coast facility loaded its first cargo. Quebec premier Francois Legault confirmed his team has discussed the Baie-Comeau project with developers. Federal energy minister Tim Hodgson suggested last week that itcould be considered for the national interest list if Quebec and the developers brought it forward. The scheme is a notable departure for Quebec, which — along with the federal government — cancelled a proposed LNG project in Saguenay in 2021 for environmental reasons. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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