CNRL 3Q oil and gas output dips

: Crude oil
24/10/31

Canadian Natural Resources' (CNRL) crude, natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) output decreased by 2.2pc in the third quarter.

The Calgary-based integrated oil and gas company produced 1.36mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d) during the third quarter, down slightly from 1.39mn boe/d in the same quarter last year, the company said Thursday.

CNRL's upgraders produced 498,000 b/d of synthetic crude, up from 491,000 b/d in the same quarter last year as the Athabasca Oil Sands Project's (AOSP) Scotford upgrader produced stronger than expected volumes and completed a planned turnaround nine days ahead of schedule. The impact of planned turnarounds to CNRL's annual synthetic crude output was reduced to 5,400 b/d, down from the company's initial forecast of 11,000 b/d.

The company also acquired Chevron's Canadian oil sands and Duvernay shale production for $6.5bn in the quarter, increasing CNRL's annual synthetic crude production by 62,500 b/d and its stake in AOSP to 90pc.

Bitumen production at CNRL's thermal in-situ projects was 272,000 b/d, up from 269,000 b/d in the same quarter of 2023 as output at Jackfish reached 128,000 b/d, a new quarterly record. The company's crude and NGL output, excluding thermal in-situ, was 228,000 b/d, down from 232,000 b/d in the same quarter last year.

CNRL will also increase its committed capacity on the 590,000 b/d Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) by 75,000 b/d to 169,000 b/d, allowing the company to secure almost one third of the line's committed capacity after PetroChina Canada offloaded its capacity on 10 October.

The newly expanded pipeline has provided Canadian producers with more meaningful access to global buyers, reducing Canadian heavy crude price volatility and adding significant egress capacity out of Alberta. Yet, it is uncertain how long unconstrained egress in Alberta can be sustained with oil sands production expected to grow.

"It certainly helps secure those barrels which would otherwise be potentially in an egress constrained situation," said CNRL president Scott Stauth on Thursday, adding stronger pricing is now possible by aiming volumes at California or Asia.

CNRL posted a profit of C$2.27bn ($1.63bn) in the quarter, down from a C$2.34bn profit during the third quarter of 2023.

By Kyle Tsang

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24/12/13

Canada sets 2035 emissions reduction goal

London, 13 December (Argus) — Canada has set a new 2035 climate goal, aiming to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 45-50pc by 2035, from a 2005 baseline. This builds on its 2030 target of a 40-45pc emissions reduction, again from 2005 levels. Canada's emissions had been in 2015 projected to rise by 9pc by 2030, from 2005 levels, "but we are now successfully bending the curve", the Canadian environment and climate change ministry said. The newly-announced target is in line with a pledge Canada made at the UN Cop 29 climate summit last month. Countries that are party to the Paris climate accord must submit new national climate plans by 10 February 2025, to cover a timeframe up to 2035. Canada, the EU, Mexico, Norway and Switzerland committed at Cop 29 to set out new plans with "steep emissions cuts" that are consistent with the global 1.5°C temperature increase limit sought by the Paris Agreement. The plans are known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Canada's NDC is being considered by the cabinet, and the country plans to submit it by the deadline, Canadian climate change ambassador Catherine Stewart told Cop 29 delegates on 21 November. Tackling climate change is "both an environmental imperative and an economic opportunity", she added. The target was informed "by the best available science, Indigenous Knowledge, international climate change commitments, consultations with provinces and territories and expert advice", the ministry said. Canada will also "seek feedback on how to help companies take advantage of the economic opportunities that come with building a clean economy" in the near term, it added. Although the plan is not yet available, the ministry said that it will examine the role of carbon removal technologies for the energy transition. "Canadians are increasingly experiencing record-breaking extreme weather," the ministry noted. The country experienced record wildfires in 2023. Carbon emissions from wildfires this year were second only to the "unprecedented" levels in 2023, EU earth-monitoring service Copernicus found this month. Canada has a legally binding target of net zero emissions by 2050. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec+ decision reduces potential supply surplus: IEA

24/12/12

Opec+ decision reduces potential supply surplus: IEA

London, 12 December (Argus) — The recent decision by Opec+ members to delay a planned output increase has "materially reduced" a potential supply surplus next year, the IEA said today. Opec+ producers earlier this month pushed back a plan to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary crude production cuts by three months to April 2025 and to return the full amount over 18 months rather than a year. Still, the oil market in 2025 is still likely to be significantly oversupplied, the IEA said in its Oil Market Report (OMR), given persistent overproduction by some Opec+ members, strong supply growth from outside the alliance and modest global oil demand growth. The Paris-based agency's base case forecasts show supply exceeding demand by 950,000 b/d next year, even if all Opec+ cuts remain in place. The supply surplus would increase to 1.4mn b/d if alliance members start increasing output from April as planned, the IEA said. This is far from guaranteed. Opec+ has already delayed its plan to increase output three times and continues to say a decision to unwind will depend on market conditions. While the IEA expects oil demand growth to remain subdued next year, its latest forecasts show a slightly higher outlook than in its previous report . The agency revised up its oil demand growth forecast for 2025 by 90,000 b/d to 1.1mn b/d, largely because of China's recently announced economic stimulus measures. This would see global consumption rise to 103.9mn b/d. But the IEA downgraded its oil demand growth forecast for this year by 80,000 b/d, to 840,000 b/d, mostly because of "weaker-than-expected non-OECD deliveries in countries such as China, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia." It said non-OECD oil demand growth in the third quarter, at 320,000 b/d, was the lowest since the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. The IEA said lacklustre demand growth this year and next reflects "a generally sub-par macroeconomic environment and changing patterns of oil use." Increases will be driven by petrochemical feedstocks, and demand for transport fuels "will continue to be constrained by behavioural and technological progress." On supply, the IEA downgraded its growth estimates for 2025 by 110,000 b/d to 1.9mn b/d. Most of this will come from non-Opec+ countries such as the US, Canada, Guyana, Brazil and Argentina. The agency nudged lower its supply forecasts for this year, by 10,000 b/d to 630,000 b/d. The IEA said global observed oil stocks declined by 39.3mn bl in October, led by an "exceptionally sharp" fall in oil product inventories due to low refinery activity coupled with higher demand. It said preliminary data show a rebound in global inventories in November. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Opec trims oil demand growth forecasts again

24/12/11

Opec trims oil demand growth forecasts again

London, 11 December (Argus) — Opec has revised down its global oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 for a fifth time in a row. In its final Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) of the year, the producer group has cut its 2025 oil demand growth forecast by 90,000 b/d to 1.45mn b/d. This is entirely driven by a downgrade in its demand projection for the Middle East. From the start of this year right up until July, Opec had been forecasting global demand growth of 1.85mn b/d for next year. The group has also lowered its demand growth forecast for this year — by 210,000 b/d to 1.61mn b/d, mostly driven by reduced growth projections in the Middle East, India and the Americas. Up until July, Opec had been predicting that demand would increase by 2.25mn b/d this year. Opec's downward demand growth revisions slightly close the gap with other forecasters such as the IEA and EIA, which project much lower levels of consumption growth. The IEA sees oil demand growing by 920,000 b/d this year and by 990,000 b/d next year, while the EIA projects 890,000 b/d and 1.29mn b/d, respectively. On supply, Opec has kept its non-Opec+ liquids supply growth forecast for next year unchanged at 1.11mn b/d. But it has upgraded its estimate for this year by 50,000 b/d to 1.28mn b/d, underpinned by stronger-than-expected US production. Opec+ crude production — including Mexico — increased by 323,000 b/d to 40.665mn b/d in November, according to an average of secondary sources that includes Argus . The call on Opec+ crude remains 42.4mn b/d for this year and 42.7mn b/d for next year, according to the MOMR. Opec+ producers agreed earlier this month to delay a plan to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary cuts by three months to April 2025 and to return the full amount over 18 months rather than a year. By Aydin Calik Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2024. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Norway to end new international fossil fuel financing

24/12/10

Norway to end new international fossil fuel financing

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Opec+ crude output rises in November

24/12/10

Opec+ crude output rises in November

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