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Cop 29 goes into overtime on finance deadlock

  • : Battery materials, Crude oil, Electricity, Emissions, Oil products
  • 24/11/22

Developing countries' discontent over the climate finance offer is meeting a muted response, writes Caroline Varin

As the UN Cop 29 climate conference went into overtime, early reactions of consternation towards a new climate finance draft quickly gave way to studious silence, and some new numbers floated by developing nations.

Parties are negotiating a new collective quantified goal — or climate finance target — building on the $100bn/yr that developed countries agreed to deliver to developing countries over 2020-25. The updated draft of the new finance goal text — the centrepiece of this Cop — proposes a figure of $250bn/yr by 2035, "from a wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources". This is the developed country parties' submission, the Cop 29 presidency acknowledged.

Developing nations have been waiting for this number for months, and calling on developed economies to come up with one throughout this summit. They rejected the offer instantly. "The [$250bn/yr] offered by developed countries is a spit in the face of vulnerable nations like mine," Panama's lead climate negotiator, Juan Carlos Monterrey Gomez, said. Negotiating group the Alliance of Small Island States called it "a cap that will severely stagnate climate action efforts". The African Group of Negotiators and Colombia called it "unacceptable".

This is far off the mark for developing economies, which earlier this week floated numbers of $440bn-600bn/yr for a public finance layer. They also called for $1.3 trillion/yr in total climate finance from developed countries, a sum which the new text instead calls for "all actors" to work toward. China reiterated on 21 November that "the voluntary support" of the global south was not to be counted towards the goal.

A UN-mandated expert group indicated that the figure put forward by developed countries "is too low" and not consistent with the Paris Agreement goals. The new finance goal for developing countries, based on components that it covers, should commit developed countries to provide at least $300bn/yr by 2030 and $390bn/yr by 2035, it said. Brazil indicated that it is now pushing for these targets. The final amount for the new finance goal could potentially be around $300bn-350bn/yr, a Somalian delegate told Argus.

A goal of $300bn/yr by 2035 is achievable with projected finance, further reforms and shareholder support at multilateral development banks (MDBs), and some growth in bilateral funding, climate think-tank WRI's finance programme director, Melanie Robinson, said. "Going beyond [$300bn/yr] would even be possible if a high proportion of developing countries' share of MDB finance is included," she added.

All eyes turn to the EU

Unsurprisingly, developed nations offered more muted responses. "It has been a significant lift over the past decade to meet the prior goal [of $100bn/yr]," a senior US official said, and the new goal will require even more ambition and "extraordinary reach". The US has just achieved its target to provide $11bn/yr in climate finance under the Paris climate agreement by 2024. But US climate funding is likely to dry up once president-elect Donald Trump, a climate sceptic who withdrew the US from the Paris accord during his first term, takes office. Norway simply told Argus that the delegation was "happier" with the text. The EU has stayed silent, with all eyes on the bloc as the US' influence wanes. The EU contributed €28.6bn ($29.8bn) in climate finance from public budgets in 2023.

Developed nations expressed frustration towards the lack of progress on mitigation — actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Mentions of fossil fuels have been removed from new draft texts, including "transitioning away" from fossil fuels. This could still represent a potential red line for them.


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25/02/11

BP promises strategy reset after sharp drop in profit

BP promises strategy reset after sharp drop in profit

London, 11 February (Argus) — BP today promised to "fundamentally reset" its strategy later this month after reporting a drop in underlying profit last year. The company alluded to what the reset might entail, noting that last year it had "laid the foundations for growth" by committing capital to new oil and gas projects and "refocusing" its investments in low-carbon assets. Details of the strategy shift will be outlined at a capital markets day for investors on 26 February. Key actions in 2024 included taking a final investment decision on the 80,000 b/d Kaskida oil field in the US Gulf of Mexico and raising its exposure to biofuels in Brazil . The company also took steps via a joint venture with Japanese utility Jera that will see it commit less capital to its wind energy investments. BP reported an underlying replacement cost profit — excluding inventory effects and one-off items — of $1.2bn for the fourth quarter of 2024, compared with $3bn a year earlier. For the full year, underlying replacement cost profit fell by 36pc compared with 2023 to $8.9bn, while cash flow from operations dropped to $27.3bn from $32bn. The company benefited from higher oil and gas production last year — up by 2pc on 2023 at 2.36mn b/d of oil equivalent (boe/d). But lower prices, a drop in refining margins and lower contributions from both oil and gas trading weighed on profitability. BP said it expects upstream production to be lower this year and refining margins "broadly flat". It expects a similar level of refinery maintenance in 2025, with the work "heavily weighted towards the first half" and the second quarter in particular. For now, BP is sticking with its share repurchasing programme, announcing a further $1.75bn of share buybacks for the fourth quarter. It has maintained its quarterly dividend at 8¢/share. The company's capital expenditure remained steady at $16.2bn last year. It will provide guidance on this year's investment budget at the strategy day later this month. By Jon Mainwaring Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump imposes new tariffs on steel, aluminum


25/02/11
25/02/11

Trump imposes new tariffs on steel, aluminum

Washington, 10 February (Argus) — US president Donald Trump today imposed a 25pc tariff on all US imports of steel and aluminum, although he said he would consider making an exemption for imports from Australia. In remarks to reporters at the White House Trump complained that many of the steel and aluminum tariffs he imposed since 2018 have been moderated or reduced for some countries. Currently Australia and Canada can export any steel and aluminum they want to into the US without tariffs, while Mexico can export steel melted and poured in the US-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) agreement region into the US without tariffs, while any material with an origin outside of USMCA is subject to 25pc tariffs. "Our nation requires steel and aluminum to be made in America, not in foreign lands," Trump said. "It's 25pc without exceptions, and that's all countries, no matter where it comes from, all countries." But Trump, prompted by reporters, confirmed that he may make an exemption for Australian-sourced steel, after Canberra threatened to take reciprocal measures. "We have a surplus with Australia, one of the few," Trump said, referring to an overall trade surplus the US runs with Australia. "And the reason is they buy a lot of airplanes." Trump said he spoke with Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese earlier today. "I told him that [steel tariff exemptions] is something that we will give great consideration." A similar exemption for the UK is unlikely since the US already is running a trade deficit with that country, Trump said. Trump contended that his initial volley of tariffs in 2018 led to the creation of hundreds of thousands of jobs in the US and boosted economic growth. A 2019 study from the Federal Reserve Board that was updated in 2024 estimates that taking into account retaliatory tariffs, there was a net decrease in US jobs and economic growth from the tariffs. US oil and gas midstream companies were among the industries hit by the 2018 tariffs, which led to higher costs for pipeline steel. Most steel imports from non-tariffed US steel imports are heavily reliant on the countries that are currently not subject to US tariffs, with their volumes making up 80pc of the 26.2mn metric tonnes (t) of steel products imported in 2024, according to US Department of Commerce data. Steel tariff rate quota (TRQ) systems are in place for Argentina, Brazil, the EU, Japan, South Korea and the UK for steel products, with specifics dependent on the country. The CME Midwest hot-rolled coil (HRC) futures market jumped today, after Trump said on Sunday he would impose new tariffs, by $51/short ton (st) for March to $856/st, while April increased by $48/st to $858/st. Steel costs would rise by $6.38bn based on the $25.5bn value of 2024 steel imports from those nontariffed countries, if volumes remained the same. Those higher costs would lead to more US steel mill price increases, with one buyer expecting another round of price increases coming soon from US steelmakers. Steelmaker Nucor has increased its published hot-rolled coil (HRC) spot price by $40/short ton (st) in the last three weeks to $790/st. Other steelmakers like ArcelorMittal USA, Cleveland-Cliffs, and US Steel are at $800/st offers for their spot HRC. Canada key aluminum supplier In the aluminum market, the US imported over 6mn t of products in 2024, according to customs data. Canadian aluminum exporters currently have no restrictions on their volumes into the US. They shipped the highest volumes into the US and are responsible for an even larger share of primary aluminum imports. Current US primary aluminum smelting capacity, excluding idled operations, is around 795,000t/yr, which equaled less than one-third of Canadian imports and one-fifth of total imports. There are multiple idled primary aluminum facilities and a greenfield plant currently under construction, but observers and company representatives challenged the feasibility of idled plant restarts in the past. TRQ systems exist for US aluminum imports from Argentina, the EU, and the UK. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Most nations miss NDC deadline, while ambition varies


25/02/10
25/02/10

Most nations miss NDC deadline, while ambition varies

London, 10 February (Argus) — The majority of countries that are party to the Paris climate agreement have missed the deadline to submit new national climate plans, while research group Climate Action Tracker (CAT) found that several are not aligned with Paris accord goals. Just 12 countries had submitted new climate plans, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), by time of writing today — the UAE, Brazil, the US, Uruguay, Switzerland, the UK, New Zealand, Andorra, Saint Lucia, Ecuador, Singapore and the Marshall Islands. UN climate body the UNFCCC had set 10 February as the deadline for countries to submit their third NDCs, setting out climate action and targets up to 2035. CAT said that of the six NDCs it analysed, just the UK's was aligned with the Paris agreement. The UK plan is "about the only bright spot" among the countries it tracks, CAT noted. But it warned that the UK government "has inherited a vast implementation gap" and must take "urgent action" to introduce and strengthen policies to ensure emissions reduction targets are reached. The UK aims to cut emissions by 81pc by 2035, from a 1990 baseline. The country should support its goals with more international climate finance to be "a fully 1.5°C aligned contribution", CAT said. The Paris agreement seeks to limit the rise in global temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably to 1.5°C. CAT noted "a significantly more ambitious" target for 2035 from the UAE , compared with its 2030 goal, but flagged the need for details on the country's planned emissions cuts. It noted a "lack of transparency" in Brazil's NDC and found that, despite an increase in ambition, New Zealand's 2035 NDC "falls short". Switzerland's new NDC "is diverging from a 1.5°C aligned pathway", CAT said. And it said that while the US is leaving the Paris agreement, the country"s NDC "can still be a guiding document for the roughly half of the US states who support continued climate action." But many climate policy observers have emphasised that higher ambition and comprehensive plans are far more important than timeliness. The EU, Canada, Mexico and Norway committed to new, Paris-consistent NDCs at the UN Cop 29 climate summit in November. Climate Action Tracker tracks around 40 countries and the EU, covering around 85pc of global emissions and 70pc of global population. The Paris agreement has a ratchet mechanism, which requires countries to review and revise climate plans every five years, increasing ambition. The UNFCCC deadline for NDC submissions is not enforceable. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Nigeria Dangote targets full capacity within a month


25/02/10
25/02/10

Nigeria Dangote targets full capacity within a month

London, 10 February (Argus) — Nigeria's privately-owned 650,000 b/d Dangote refinery could reach maximum operating capacity within a month, according to sources with knowledge of the matter who said the plant touched 85pc of nameplate capacity at the end of January. The stated goal appears ambitious, with data from Kpler and Vortexa showing Dangote ran at an implied range of 395,000-430,000 b/d to date this month, which is between 61-66pc of capacity. The implied range was 350,000-400,000 b/d in January, or 54-62pc operating capacity. Argus pegged Dangote's crude receipts at 405,000 b/d in January, a record. Dangote runs may be boosted by upstream regulator NUPRC's decision in early February to ensure Nigeria's crude is supplied to meet domestic refinery demand, before it issues crude export permits. Routine maintenance at state-owned NNPC's 125,000 b/d Warri refinery could have made more domestic crude available for Dangote use. Crude allocations to Warri were cancelled and offered out to the wider market last week, according to a market participant. But this would have been a short-term measure, with a source saying the work at Warri was completed as of 9 February, and around 1.15mn bl of crude are scheduled to be pumped to the plant. Downstream regulator NMDPRA projected that Dangote will require 550,000 b/d of Nigerian crude grades for the period January–June 2025, while NNPC's 210,000 b/d Port Harcourt and 125,000 b/d Warri plants will require 60,000 b/d and 75,000 b/d, respectively. Nigeria produced 1.51mn b/d of crude in January, according to Argus' estimate. Warri restarted at the end of 2024, having been offline since 2019. Diesel loadings from the refinery have averaged eight trucks per day, sources said last week, with sufficient supply available to sustain ongoing truck load-out operations. Warri has not started producing gasoline, according to sources. By George Maher-Bonnett, Adebiyi Olusolape and Sanjana Shivdas Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US rescinds UN climate fund pledges


25/02/10
25/02/10

US rescinds UN climate fund pledges

Washington, 10 February (Argus) — The US has canceled about $4bn in pledged money to the UN's Green Climate Fund, the latest sign a sharp policy shift under President Donald Trump. The State Department late last week said the US "has rescinded outstanding pledges to the Green Climate Fund," but did not provide any further details. The US under former presidents Joe Biden and Barack Obama had pledged about $6bn combined to the GCF, with the most recent commitment announced at the Cop 28 climate talks in Dubai. But the two administrations were able to deliver only $2bn of the funding. The cancellation of the GCF pledges is just the latest step by Trump to quickly reverse course for US climate and clean energy policies. Among his first acts after taking office last month Trump ordered the US to exit the Paris climate agreement and to pause spending on renewable energy projects. In addition, secretary of state Marco Rubio said the US would stop engaging in climate diplomacy. The GCF finances projects in developing and emerging countries with a focus on mitigation, adaptation and resilience efforts, such as climate-friendly agricultural methods, reforestation or coastal protection. It operates under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and was originally capitalized with $10.3bn in 2015. In two replenishment rounds since then, it has gathered more than $20bn in additional pledges. The fund has to date approved nearly $16bn for project in more than 130 countries and expects to approve another $3bn-worth this year. The fund said it "remains determined" to help developing countries achieve the highest level of ambition possible. "If pledges are not fully realized, our ability to support the climate ambitions of developing countries will be constrained," the GCF said. Finance for developing countries has been a major issue at UN climate talks. At last year's Cop 29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, countries agreed to a "new collective quantified goal" of "at least" $300bn/yr for developing countries by 2035, with developing countries "taking the lead." The goal is meant to build on the $100bn/yr that developed countries agreed to deliver over 2020-25. The finance will come from "a wide variety of sources, public and private, bilateral and multilateral, including alternative sources". By Michael Ball Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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