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Q&A: Clean cooking the focus after Cop 29 hitch

  • : LPG
  • 24/12/03

The dust has started to settle following the UN's Cop 29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, last month, and the general sentiment is again of missed opportunities. This is despite an agreement to mobilise $300bn/yr in climate finance for developing countries. Clean cooking in sub-Saharan Africa and other developing regions also appears to have slipped down the agenda at the summit. Yet this did not stop the World Liquid Gas Association (WLGA) LPG Week conference in Cape Town, South Africa, dedicating much of its energy to the issue over 18-22 November. Argus spoke with WLGA chief advocacy officer Michael Kelly about Cop 29 and LPG Week.

What were your overall impressions of Cop 29?

The venue impacted the negotiations. Cop 29 was well organised. Baku is charming. It was well managed, it was safe and the number of protests was limited. It was also surprisingly big — nearly 50,000 people, which makes it one of the biggest Cops in history. But the outcomes don't seem to be that significant. The final negotiations stretched into Sunday [24 November] and some late text modifications happened that disappointed those with more ambition. And the entirety of the negotiations had a glum mood because of the US election, given [US president-elect Donald] Trump pulled the US out of the Paris Agreement [during his first term]. None of his allies followed him then, but this time they might, because you have other populist regimes around the world. For example, the Argentinian delegation pulled out. This may be a hinge point.

Did it meet expectations in terms of raising the clean cooking in Africa agenda?

Clean cooking didn't figure as prominently in Cop 29 as it did in Cop 28. There may have been more focus on clean cooking, but the US election scrambled the message, plus a lot of governments had other priorities going into Cop 29. There were also a lot of calls from developing countries to change the way future summits are structured so fossil fuel lobbyists like me have their influence reduced. So, it seems like the clean cooking in Africa agenda was not really pushed, and the only silver lining may be the adoption of articles 6.4 and 6.2.

Article 6.4 of the Paris Agreement concerns the creation of a global carbon market overseen by the UN, while 6.2 enables carbon credit trading between countries. Does this mean LPG could be included in a global credit scheme?

Our industry has yet to seize the opportunity offered by carbon credits. Some of our members are working on this and it has been a topic of discussion with a lot of interest, but nobody has been able to crack the code yet. There are new algorithms in place by [carbon credit registries] Verra and Gold Standard — the Gold Standard one is under consultation — that we've contributed to, and WLGA member Envirofit helped design the Gold Standard consultation. Verra and Gold Standard had already included biomass-to-LPG for clean cooking in their credit schemes, but they were very limited in what they would accept. This is theoretically what they are changing, to expand the scope for carbon credits, including LPG projects.

You flew from Cop 29 to LPG Week in Cape Town. Was the event a success?

The feedback has been very positive. We didn't think we would have as many local participants as we did. We had South Africa's mineral and petroleum resources minister Gwede Mantashe, who gave a fairly full-throated endorsement of LPG. The market in South Africa is growing pretty strongly, largely because of [LPG trading firm] Petredec's [Richards Bay import terminal]. It's a few years old now but [the company is] establishing a rail connection to Gauteng, which is the most populous province in South Africa, and it looks like the market is really poised to grow.

A core theme at LPG Week was cost. Are targeted subsidies a necessity in sub-Saharan Africa in areas where households cannot afford to cook with LPG?

We recognise that subsidies can be effective in expanding access to LPG, and the main example of this is in India. But subsidies aren't a realistic option for many governments in sub-Saharan Africa because they simply can't afford them. The other challenge with subsidies is that they're hard to remove. There are other tools in the toolbox that governments can use to encourage growth. Saying that, with all the risks acknowledged and taking advantage of technology the way India has through biometrics and direct benefit transfers, they can be very effective in targeting a particular population and minimising seepage.

Can carbon credits play a key role in the region?

Some of our significant members think they will in offsetting the costs for those making investments, not only in sub-Saharan Africa but in other developing countries. It seems like they're moving in the right direction. The recent moves by Verra and Gold Standard and the approval of articles 6.2 and 6.4 at Baku demonstrate this. But the proof will be in the pudding — it's going to take one of our members to get a few projects up and running and receiving credits to prove the concept. One thing that came out of a study that [US-based clean cooking non-profit organisation] Envirofit did for us last year is that in order for carbon credits to be effective for a company, they can't just be a bolt-on. They almost have to establish a new business unit or department focused on carbon credits to make them worthwhile. So there's a cost associated with getting the credits, and a learning curve, which means it will take time.

Cylinder ownership is a significant challenge in sub-Saharan Africa. Is the cylinder recirculation model the best approach?

Our official position is that the only model that works is the cylinder recirculation model. Even when you're using pay-as-you-go [PAYG] systems that allow people to buy small amounts of LPG, it's still a cylinder recirculation model. Because the marketer puts a sensor on the cylinder and owns the cylinder, and the consumer buys small amounts, controlled by a locking mechanism. Once the cylinder is empty, it gets replaced by the marketer.

What is holding back the adoption of PAYG technologies in the region?

There are two challenges PAYG systems face. One is the penetration of cell phones, which is a problem in rural populations in sub-Saharan Africa. And the biggest issue is the cost of the technology. You hope that as these technologies evolve, the costs will come down. But it's taking longer than anticipated when these things first rolled out about 10 years ago. Everyone thought they would be the iPhone for our industry. But it's yet to really take off the way we had hoped.

A soon-to-be-released report suggests 60mn-120mn t/yr of renewable liquid gases (RLG) can be produced by 2050. Do you think these levels are feasible?

Achieving these kinds of numbers is dependent heavily upon strong, supportive policy frameworks and access to feedstocks. But there is a significant risk that RLG production may only reach less than a quarter of this potential capacity. Furthermore, without the supportive policy frameworks, there's a risk that feedstock and product competition will restrict the market available to the LPG sector. What is going to happen with renewable fuels, not just RLG, is very hard to predict.

Does a Trump second term threaten the status of US RLG projects?

In a word, yes.


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25/02/06

Australia's Beach cuts FY24-25 oil, gas output target

Australia's Beach cuts FY24-25 oil, gas output target

Sydney, 6 February (Argus) — Australian independent Beach Energy has narrowed its oil and gas output guidance for the year to 30 June 2025, given delays in bringing the Western Australian (WA) 250 TJ/d Waitsia gas plant on line. Beach will produce 18.5mn-20.5mn bl of oil equivalent/d (boe/d) in 2024-25, it said in its half-year results to 31 December. It revised the top end of its previous forecast of 17.5mn-21.5mn boe down because of delays at Waitsia, which is operated by joint venture partner Japanese trading house Mitsui. Beach has maintained its guidance for first sales gas at Waitsia in April-June. The Adelaide-based firm last month reported its output at 10.2mn boe in July-December 2024, 15pc higher on the year, leading Beach to raise the bottom end of its guidance. The five Waitsia LNG swap cargoes that Beach has executed to date have brought forward revenue for the firm, which reported A$139mn ($87.1mn) from the two shipped in July-December 2024. A fifth cargo was lifted from Australian independent Woodside Energy's 14.4mn t/yr North West Shelf (NWS) LNG terminal in January, while a possible sixth may occur before the end of June. "We have opportunities for additional swaps in the market and we're looking very closely… I'm hoping to get another [cargo] out before the half-year," chief executive Brett Woods said on 6 February. About 35pc of the gas exported via swap cargoes to date were from Beach's own 20 TJ/d (534,000 m³/d) Xyris gas plant, meaning it will not need to be swapped back, Woods said. Beach expects 8-10 cargoes/yr of Waitsia gas to be shipped until 2028, with scope to further extend the project's LNG exports following the WA government's changes to onshore gas export rules. Waitsia partners hold a gas processing agreement with the NWS JV running until the end of 2028. Beach will start its Offshore Gas Victoria programme in 2025 as part of its ambition to become a major domestic gas supplier. This includes drilling the Hercules gas prospect in Victoria state's offshore Otway basin in April-June, described as a "large scale opportunity" with prospective reserves of 100bn ft³ (280mn m³). No change was made to Beach's 2024-25 capital expenditure guidance of A$700mn-$800mn. By Tom Major Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

India’s LPG use could contract after record 2024


25/02/04
25/02/04

India’s LPG use could contract after record 2024

Consumption is expected to fall as more households take up piped natural gas and LPG subsidies are unwound, writes Rituparna Ghosh Mumbai, 4 February (Argus) — India's LPG consumption may contract this year after reaching another record high in 2024 unless new demand centres for use as a clean cooking fuel emerge, budget documents show and industry officials say. Urban use of LPG as a cooking fuel in India is likely to be further eroded this year by the development of piped natural gas grids while rural sales could be affected if the government decides to remove subsidies. Households account for over 90pc of India's LPG demand. India's overall LPG consumption rose to a record high of 31mn t in 2024, up by 7pc on the year, according to oil ministry data, on the back of an election year that prompted several LPG incentives from the ruling BJP party. The government's target of adding 7.5mn more low-income households under the Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY) subsidy scheme a year ahead of schedule also supported the growth. A total of 329mn households use LPG as of 1 January, government data show. India's LPG imports increased by 13pc to a new high of 21mn t in 2024 on growing consumption and flat production of about 12.8mn t. LPG use in urban areas is expected to contract as piped natural gas (PNG) becomes increasingly available, with household connections rising by 16pc to nearly 14mn last year, according to the oil ministry. PNG for households is subsidised by the government. Delhi expects the rural sector to drive demand growth as more users switch from harmful solid biomass fuels to LPG for cooking. But households that have switched fuel often return to cheaper firewood — a government survey shows that less than half of India's rural households use LPG for cooking, with the annual cylinder refill rate stagnating at three/yr since 2022. The government also plans to reduce LPG subsidies in its latest budget for 2025-26 beginning in April. Subsidies for low-income households will fall by 28pc to 91bn rupees ($1.04bn) in the next fiscal year from Rs127bn in 2024-25. India's overall LPG subsidy declines to Rs121bn from Rs147bn. The decline in subsidies will hurt LPG demand in price-sensitive areas — nearly 129mn people in India were living in extreme poverty in 2024, according to a World Bank report. No poll pull Elections are a major demand driver for LPG in India as federal and state governments often reduce rates or offer free refills during their campaigns. State-run refiners slashed 14.2kg cylinder prices by Rs100/cylinder in August last year to Rs803/cylinder ($9.20/cylinder) in Delhi, where they have remained since. LPG subsidies of Rs300/cylinder were also extended for low-income households, which is due to expire in March. Several state elections in late 2023 announced free cylinders, boosting demand for LPG throughout 2024. But the government may now look to wind down subsidies with no critical elections to contest in the near future, as it did after the 2019 election. Increasing government repayments due to state-run refiners for lowering prices may also force it to raise cylinder prices again, analysts say. The government made no provision in its budget proposal to compensate the refiners for losses incurred in selling domestic LPG to households at below cost. The losses accrued by refiners IOC, BPCL and HPCL from LPG sales during the April-December 2024 period are estimated to be around Rs285bn combined, according to their company reports. This would equate to Rs390bn for the entire fiscal year 2024-25. The oil ministry meanwhile forecasts India's LPG consumption to grow by 4.7pc on the year to 33mn t in 2025-26. India kept 14kg LPG cylinders at Rs803 in Delhi for a 10th consecutive month for January but cut commercial 19kg cylinder rates after five straight months of hikes by Rs14.50 to Rs1,804, according to state-run refiner IOC. India LPG fundamentals Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Qatar, UAE's LNG ambitions to boost LPG output by 2030


25/02/04
25/02/04

Qatar, UAE's LNG ambitions to boost LPG output by 2030

LPG imports to Asia from the two countries are forecast to rise by around a third by 2030, writes Ieva Paldaviciute Dubai, 4 February (Argus) — LPG output from the Middle East's leading exporters Qatar and the UAE is due to rise significantly by the end of this decade, primarily driven by the development of LNG-related projects in both countries. Qatar produced around 10.7mn t of LPG in 2024, but output is likely to grow by around 75pc to 17.6mn t/yr by 2030, Argus Consulting forecasts. This will be driven by state-owned QatarEnergy's North Field expansion project that intends to gradually boost the state's LNG production capacity to 142mn t/yr by 2030, from the current 77mn t/yr. Even though geared towards boosting LNG output, the North Field expansion will simultaneously increase LPG production as it is a by-product of LNG extraction and processing. The project will be developed in three phases — 32mn t/yr North Field East (NFE), 16mn t/yr North Field South (NFS) and 16mn t/yr North Field West (NFW). The NFE phase is due to start commercial operations by mid-2025 and will yield around 4.2mn t/yr of additional LPG production from 2026, Argus Consulting estimates. NFS will add around 1.96mn t/yr of LPG by 2027, and NFW will add close to 1mn t/yr LPG in 2030 and another 1mn t/yr in 2031. QatarEnergy sells its LPG through spot and term deals, with supplies heading almost exclusively to Asia. Meanwhile, the UAE produced around 12.5mn t of LPG in 2024, with output forecast to grow by around 20pc to 15mn t by 2030, according to Argus Consulting. This growth will primarily stem from three large projects that are now under development by state-owned Adnoc Gas. The 9.6mn t/yr Ruwais LNG project on Das Island will more than double the UAE's LNG capacity of 5.8mn t/yr. The project is scheduled to start operations in the second half of 2028 and it will simultaneously boost LPG production. Adnoc's Meram — maximising ethane recovery and monetisation — project aims to increase ethane extraction from Adnoc Gas' onshore facilities in the Habshan complex by 35-40pc by constructing new gas processing facilities, as well as "enable and optimise feedstock supply" to the Ruwais industrial complex. Adnoc Gas anticipates Meram to be completed in 2026, with Argus Consulting forecasting the project to start yielding close to 700,000 t/yr of LPG from 2026. Adnoc Gas is also nearing completion of the second phase of its integrated gas development expansion project (IDG-E2), which will enable the Habshan plant to process an additional 370mn ft³/d (3.8bn m³/yr) of offshore gas. This expansion, expected to be finalised in the first quarter of this year, could lead to an increase in associated gas products such as LPG. These three projects together will raise both gas and liquids processing capacities by around 30pc by 2029, but Adnoc Gas notes that additional pre-final investment decision projects will further contribute to growth post-2029. All roads lead to Asia These new developments should significantly increase the amount of LPG exports from Qatar and the UAE. Qatar has been exporting around 10mn t/yr of LPG since 2015, while the UAE's exports stood closer to 11mn t/yr in 2023-24, Kpler data show. Almost all LPG exports from the Middle East head to Asian countries, led by India, which took around half of all exports from Qatar and around 70pc from the UAE's exports in 2024. The UAE and Qatar appear to be confident that the growing appetite of Asian importers will provide a home for the increasing LPG supplies. Imports to Asia are likely to rise by around a third to 108mn t by 2030 from 2023, Argus Consulting data show. Rising supplies in the Middle East will allow the region to compete with the US, which may be increasingly important should a new US-China trade war unfold, although the Middle East would be unable to fill the needs of China as well as India. Qatar LPG exports by country Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US delays Canada tariffs by a month: Trudeau


25/02/03
25/02/03

US delays Canada tariffs by a month: Trudeau

Calgary, 3 February (Argus) — US tariffs threatened against Canada will be delayed by 30 days, prime minister Justin Trudeau said this afternoon after talking with US president Donald Trump. "I just had a good call with President Trump," Trudeau posted on X, before describing Canada's plan to send thousands of officials to the US border to police fentanyl trafficking. The two leaders spoke twice on Monday, the eve of sweeping tariffs Trump had proposed against Canada and Mexico . Earlier in the day Mexican tariffs were also delayed by a month after similar promises for more troops on the border. "Nearly 10,000 frontline personnel are and will be working on protecting the border," Trudeau wrote. "In addition, Canada is making new commitments to appoint a Fentanyl Czar, we will list cartels as terrorists, ensure 24/7 eyes on the border, launch a Canada-US Joint Strike Force to combat organized crime, fentanyl and money laundering." Canada will be putting C$200mn ($139mn) towards tackling organized crime and fentanyl. In light of the US-Canada tariff pause, manufacturing and mineral-heavy Ontario said it would pause retaliation measures of its own announced earlier in the day. That would have banned US companies from provincial contracts, removed American products in liquor stores and cancelled a contract with Elon Musk's Starlink internet services. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Canada’s tariff response will be ‘forceful’: Trudeau


25/01/31
25/01/31

Canada’s tariff response will be ‘forceful’: Trudeau

Calgary, 31 January (Argus) — Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau is planning an immediate retaliation should US president Donald Trump impose a 25pc tariff on imports tomorrow, 1 February. "If the president does choose to implement any tariffs against Canada, we are ready with a response," said Trudeau at a meeting of the Council on Canada-US Relations in Toronto. "A purposeful, forceful, but reasonable, immediate response." "It's not what we want, but if he moves forward, we will also act," he said. Trump has accused Canada and Mexico of facilitating trafficking of fentanyl and illegal migration and has threatened tariffs to persuade the two countries to tighten borders they share with the US. "Our border is safe and secure," said Trudeau. "We're committed to keeping it that way by addressing current challenges and strengthening our capacity." Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum said this week Mexico is also ready to respond to US tariffs. "We will always defend respect for our sovereignty and a dialogue as equals, but without subordination," she said. Canada in mid-December said it would spend C$1.3bn ($900bn) on border security measures over six years, which Trudeau reiterated Friday while highlighting recent progress. The 8,891-kilometre (5,525-miles) US-Canada border is the longest in the world. Trump has also railed against the US' trade deficit with Canada, which is on track to settle at about C$65bn in 2024 , according to TD Bank. The bank notes the deficit is largely a result of America's thirst for energy and should not be confused with a "subsidy". Canada has increased deliveries of crude to the US beyond 4mn b/d and supplied 8.36 Bcf/d (86.35bn m³/yr) of natural gas in January-October, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). US refiners that process Canadian crude would not easily find alternative supplies, according to the American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers (AFPM). "We won't relent until tariffs are removed, and of course, everything is on the table," Trudeau said of Canada's potential retaliation, a message that has drawn concern from the premier of oil-rich Alberta who wants the unfettered flow of energy. All told, the two highly-integrated countries exchange about C$3.6bn of goods and services each day, only slightly less than daily US-Mexico trade, TD Bank said last week. By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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