Treasury eyes 45Z guidance before Biden exit

: Agriculture, Biofuels, Emissions
24/12/03

The US Department of Treasury said it still plans to issue guidance before president Joe Biden leaves office next year clarifying how refiners can qualify for a new tax credit for clean fuels.

The agency "anticipates issuing guidance" around the Inflation Reduction Act's 45Z credit before 20 January to "enable producers to claim the 45Z credit for 2025", disputing a report today that the Biden administration planned on punting implementation to president-elect Donald Trump. The credit, set to kick off regardless on 1 January, will differ from some prior federal incentives by offering greater subsidies to fuels that produce fewer greenhouse gas emissions.

Treasury did not commit to any definitive timeline for releasing guidance, and it did not immediately clarify how thorough any eventual rule would be.

Companies in the biofuel supply chain say the current lack of clarity from Treasury — particularly on how it will calculate carbon intensities for various fuels and feedstocks — has slowed first quarter dealmaking. Government guidance could make or break the economics of certain plants, particularly for relatively higher-carbon fuels like soy biodiesel or jet fuel derived from corn ethanol.

The US Department of Agriculture's timing for releasing a complementary rule to quantify the climate benefits of certain agricultural practices, envisioned as a way to reward refineries sourcing feedstocks from farms taking steps to reduce their emissions, is unclear. The agency said today that a "rulemaking process" in response to its request for information on climate-smart farm practices is "under consideration" but did not elaborate. Agriculture secretary Tom Vilsack had insisted earlier this year that his department would release some package before the end of Biden's term.

Some industry groups remain pessimistic that the Biden administration will answer all of the thorny questions still lingering around the 45Z credit, especially given signals earlier this year that other Inflation Reduction Act programs would take priority. The Renewable Fuels Association, which represents ethanol producers, says final regulations around 45Z "seem highly unlikely" before the end of Biden's term but that it hopes Treasury releases at least some "basic information" or safe harbor provisions.

Delays getting credit guidance could prod Congress to extend expiring biofuel incentives for another year, including a $1/USG credit for blenders of biomass-based diesel. Some formerly skeptical lobbying groups have recently come on board in support of an extension, fearing that biofuel production could slump next year given the lack of 45Z guidance and uncertainty about how Trump will implement clean energy tax credits.

But four lobbyists speaking on background told Argus today that the proposal still faces long odds. Congress has various other priorities for its relatively brief lame duck session, including government funding and disaster aid, that take precedence over biofuels. A staffer with the Democratic-controlled US Senate Finance Committee said last month that Republicans have been reluctant to negotiate tax policy in a divided Congress this year when they are planning a far-reaching tax package under unified Republican control next year.

By Cole Martin

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25/01/10

Brazil’s inflation decelerates to 4.83pc in December

Sao Paulo, 10 January (Argus) — Brazil's headline inflation decelerated to 4.83pc at the end of 2024, as declines in power costs were only partially offset by gains in fuel and food, according to government statistics agency IBGE. The consumer price index (CPI) slowed from 4.87pc in November and compared with 4.76pc in October. The year-end print compared with 4.62pc in December 2023, but was down from 5.79pc in December 2022. Food and beverage costs rose by an annual 7.69pc in December, accounting for much of the monthly increase, following a 7.63pc annual gain in November. Beef costs increased by an annual 20.84pc in December following a 15.43pc annual gain for the prior month. Higher beef costs in the domestic market are related to the Brazilian's real depreciation to the US dollar, with the Brazilian real depreciating by 27.4pc to the US dollar between 31 December 2023 and the same date in 2024 . Still, beef prices decelerated by 5.26pc in December alone, down from 8pc in November. Soybean oil rose by 29.21pc over the year, an increase of 1.64 percentage points from November. Fuel prices rose by an annual 10.09pc in December after an 8.78pc gain in November. Motor fuel costs grew by 0.7pc in December, compared with a 0.15pc drop in the prior month, thanks to higher gasoline prices. Diesel prices increased by 0.66pc in the 12-month period, while it decreased by 2.25pc in November. Gasoline prices — the major individual contributor to the annual high, according to IBGE — rose by 9.71pc in December from 9.12pc in the prior month. Still, that was lower than in December 2023, when the annual inflation for gasoline stood at 11pc. Power costs in December contracted by an annual 0.37pc in December, as improvements in power generation allowed for removal of a surcharge from customer bills, after a gain of 3.46pc the prior month. In November, Brazil faced lower river levels at its hydroelectric plants after a period of severe droughts . Brazil's central bank is targeting CPI of 3pc with a margin of 1.5 percentage point above or below. Brazil's central bank in December raised its target rate to 12.25pc from 11.25pc as the real's depreciation accelerated. It also signaled it is likely to increase the rate to 14.25pc by March. Monthly inflation accelerated to 0.52pc in December from 0.39pc in November. But the rate was lower than in December 2023, when it stood at 0.56pc. By Maria Frazatto Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US issues 45Z tax guidance for low-carbon fuels

25/01/10

US issues 45Z tax guidance for low-carbon fuels

Washington, 10 January (Argus) — US producers of low-carbon fuels can start claiming the "45Z" tax credit providing up to $1/USG for road use and $1.75/USG for aviation, following the US Treasury Department's release today of proposed guidance for the credit. The guidance includes proposed regulations and other tools to determine the eligibility of fuels for the 45Z tax credit, which was created by the Inflation Reduction Act to replace a suite of incentives for biofuels that expired at the end of last year. Biofuel producers have been clamoring for guidance from the US Treasury Department so they can start claiming the tax credit, which is available for fuels produced from 1 January 2025 through the end of 2027. "This guidance will help put America on the cutting-edge of future innovation in aviation and renewable fuel while also lowering transportation costs for consumers," US deputy treasury secretary Wally Adeymo said. "Decarbonizing transportation and lowering costs is a win-win for America." The creation of the 45Z tax credit has already prompted a change in US biofuels markets by shifting federal subsidies from blenders to producers. Because the value of tax credit increases for fuels with the lowest lifecycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, it could encourage refiners to source more waste feedstocks such as used cooking oil, rather than conventional crop-based feedstocks. While the guidance is still just a proposal, taxpayers are able to "immediately" use the guidance to claim the 45Z tax credit, until Treasury issues additional guidance, an administration official said. The guidance on 45Z released today affirms that only the producer for the fuel is eligible to claim the credit, not blenders. To be eligible for the tax credit, the fuel must have a "practical or commercial fitness for use in a highway vehicle or aircraft" by itself or when blended into a mixture, Treasury said. Marine diesel and methanol suitable for highway or aircraft use are also eligible for 45Z, as is renewable natural gas that can be used as a transportation fuel. Treasury also released an "annual emissions rate table" offering providers a methodology for determining the lifecycle GHG of fuel. Treasury said a key emissions model from the US Department of Energy, called 45ZCF-GREET, used to calculate the value of the 45Z tax credit is anticipated to be released today, although industry officials said it may be delayed until next week. Treasury said it intends to propose regulations at "a future date" for calculating the GHG emissions benefits of "climate smart agriculture" practices for "cultivating domestic corn, soybeans, and sorghum as feedstocks" for fuel. Those regulations could lower the calculated lifecycle emissions of fuel from those crop-based feedstocks and increase the relative 45Z tax credit. US biofuel producers said they are still awaiting key details on the 45Z tax credit, including the update to the GREET model. Among the outstanding questions is if the guidance released today provides "enough certainty to negotiate feedstock and fuel offtake agreements going forward", said the Clean Fuels America Alliance, an industry group that represents the biodiesel, renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel industries. It is unclear how president-elect Donald Trump intends to approach this proposed approach for the 45Z credit, which will be subject to a 90-day public comment period. Trump has promised to "rescind all unspent funds" from the Inflation Reduction Act. But outright repealing 45Z would leave biofuels producers and farmers without a subsidy they say is needed to sustain growth, after the expiration last year of a $1/USG blender tax credit and a tax credit of up to $1.75/USG for sustainable aviation fuel. Biofuel and soybean groups were unsuccessful in a push last year to extend the expiring biofuel tax credits. The 45Z credit is likely to be debated in Congress this year, as Republicans consider repealing parts of the Inflation Reduction Act. House Republicans have already asked for input on revisions to the 45Z credit, signaling they could modify the incentive. In a tightly divided Congress, farm-state lawmakers may hold enough leverage to ensure some type of biofuel incentive — and potentially one friendlier to agricultural producers than 45Z — survives. By Chris Knight and Cole Martin Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mercosur-EU deal to open Brazil ethanol flows

25/01/10

Mercosur-EU deal to open Brazil ethanol flows

Sao Paulo, 10 January (Argus) — A freshly inked EU-Mercosur trade agreement marks an important opportunity for Brazil's burgeoning ethanol market, but will likely not significantly impact the country's well established sugar trade. Announced in December, the landmark pact provides for the gradual exemption of tariffs on most exports from the four participating Mercosur countries to the 27 European countries that make up the EU. Goods considered sensitive, including sugar and ethanol, will be subject to a quota system with more limited benefits. Export quotas for specific products from each of the participating South American countries — founding members Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay — will be defined after the ratification of the agreement. For industrial ethanol originating in Mercosur and shipped to the EU, the agreement provides a maximum quota of 570,300 m³/yr (9,845 b/d), with tariffs gradually reduced to zero over the years. Non-industrial ethanol will have a quota of 253,400m³/yr, subject to a reduced tariff of €34-64/m³ ($34.82-65.55/m³), a third of current rates. The EU tariff on imported ethanol today ranges from €102/m³ for the denatured product — which includes chemical additives that make it unfit for consumption — to €192/m³ for the undenatured product. Quotas provided for in the agreement are more than enough to cover volumes Brazil exports to the EU. The South American country shipped 140,700 m³ of ethanol to countries in the European bloc in 2024, around 7pc of the 1.9mn m³ it exported in the year, according to trade ministry data. The terms of the agreement have caught the attention of market participants, who see an opportunity to revive trade flows to Europe, especially for industrial ethanol. EU countries soaked up around 30pc of Brazil's ethanol exports in 2022, but outflows have dropped significantly since. At the time, Brazil's ethanol gained a competitive edge during a period of rising energy prices in Europe amid the start of the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the aftershocks of the Covid-19 pandemic. The announcement of the agreement has put the EU back on the radar of Brazilian traders who stopped selling ethanol to Europe or those who are yet to enter the market. Slight impact for sugar The agreement is set to have less of an impact on Brazilian sugar exports, considering the approved quota and the volume normally exported to the EU. Mercosur will have a quota to send 180,000 metric tonnes (t)/yr of sugar to the European bloc with zero tariffs, while the excess volumes of raw sugar will face the current customs duty of €98/t. The tariff-free volume represents a small portion of the total sweetener normally shipped to the European bloc. Brazil's center-south — which includes the main producing states — alone exported 540,000t of sugar to the EU in January-November 2024, according to sugar and ethanol industry association Unica. Raw sugar accounted for around 87pc of that total. Shipments in 2024 were still below the 804,000 t/yr five-year average for Brazilian sugar exports to the EU. If volumes in the coming years remain close to historical levels, less than 25pc of the annual volume shipped from Brazil will benefit from the new import duties. The EU is expected to import 2.4mn t of sugar in the 2024-25 crop, which extends from October 2024 to September 2025. The volume makes the bloc the third largest importer in the world, only behind Indonesia and China, according to US Department of Agriculture data. The volume approved in the agreement with Mercosur would represent less than 5pc of the imports expected by the EU, which limits the potential competitiveness of Brazilian sugar in the European market. Negotiations on terms of the Mercosur-EU agreement have been concluded, but the pact will only enter into force after final signing and subsequent ratification. By Maria Lígia Barros and Maria Albuquerque Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Global agencies agree 2024 was hottest year recorded

25/01/10

Global agencies agree 2024 was hottest year recorded

London, 10 January (Argus) — Six international science and weather institutions have separately found that 2024 was the hottest year on record, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said today. The organisations co-ordinated to release their 2024 average temperature data on the same day, "to underline the exceptional conditions experienced during 2024," the WMO said. The WMO uses data from the six agencies — the UK's Met Office, Japan's Meteorological Agency (JMA), US non-profit Berkeley Earth, the EU's Copernicus and the US' National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (Nasa). The global average surface temperature in 2024 was 1.55°C above the pre-industrial average, with a margin of uncertainty of 0.13°C either above or below that figure, WMO found in its analysis of the six datasets. This makes it "likely" that the world has experienced the first calendar year breaching the 1.5°C limit pursued by the Paris climate accord. Climate scientists use a timeframe of 1850-1900 for the pre-industrial average temperature. The Paris agreement seeks to limit global heating to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably to 1.5°C. All six datasets put 2024 as the hottest year on record and flag up the recent rate of warming, but "not all show the temperature anomaly above 1.5°C due to differing methodologies," WMO said. Copernicus found the global average temperature in 2024 was 1.6°C above pre-industrial levels. "Individual years pushing past the 1.5°C limit do not mean the long-term goal is shot," UN secretary-general Antonio Guterres said. "There's still time to avoid the worst of climate catastrophe. But leaders must act — now." He urged governments to submit new national climate action plans this year. The temperature limits sought by the Paris agreement work on a timeframe of 20 years or longer, Copernicus said. Long-term global warming is currently about 1.3°C above the pre-industrial baseline, a team of experts established by WMO found. "We've had not just one or two record-breaking years, but a full 10-year series," said WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo. "This has been accompanied by devastating and extreme weather, rising sea levels and melting ice, all powered by record-breaking greenhouse gas levels due to human activities." The UK Met Office outlook finds that 2025 is likely to be one of the three warmest years, in terms of global average temperature, "falling in line just behind 2024 and 2023", it said today. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

2024 was hottest year on record: EU’s Copernicus

25/01/10

2024 was hottest year on record: EU’s Copernicus

London, 10 January (Argus) — Last year was the hottest year globally since records began in 1850, and the first calendar year to breach the 1.5°C temperature limit sought by the Paris climate agreement, EU earth-monitoring service Copernicus said today. The global average surface air temperature in 2024 was 15.10°C — 0.12°C higher than previous hottest year 2023 and 0.72°C higher than the 1991-2020 average, Copernicus found. The global average temperature in 2024 was 1.6°C higher than an estimate of the pre-industrial average, Copernicus data show — the first calendar year to breach the temperature limit pursued by the Paris accord. The two-year average for 2023-24 "also exceeds this threshold", Copernicus said. The Paris agreement seeks to limit the rise in temperature to "well below" 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and preferably to 1.5°C. This "does not mean we have breached the limit set by the Paris agreement", which "refers to temperature anomalies averaged over at least 20 years", Copernicus said. But it "underscores that global temperatures are rising beyond what modern humans have ever experienced", the organisation added. Each year of the past decade — 2015-24 — was one of the hottest ten years on record. And every month since July 2023, apart from July 2024, has breached the 1.5°C level, Copernicus data show. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions "remain the main agent of climate change", director of Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service Laurence Rouil said. GHG concentrations are the highest in at least 800,000 years, Copernicus said. Atmospheric concentrations of key GHGs CO2 and methane "continued to increase and reached record annual levels in 2024", it said. CO2 stood at 422 parts per million (ppm) and methane at 1,897 parts per billion (ppb) in 2024 — 2.9ppm and 3ppb higher on the year, respectively, Copernicus data show. While the rate of increase in CO2 "was larger than the rate observed in recent years", the rate of increase in methane was "significantly lower than in the last three years", Copernicus said. An international team of scientists said in November that carbon emissions from fossil fuels were projected to reach a fresh high in 2024 , with "no sign" that these have peaked. Global sea surface temperatures were also above average in 2024 and were a significant force behind the record high surface air temperatures, Copernicus said. Oceans absorb the majority of the world's excess heat. And the amount of water vapour in the atmosphere hit a fresh high in 2024, at around 5pc above the 1991-2020 average, Copernicus found. Climate change is worsening extreme weather events such as floods and storms, studies found. This "reflects the basic physics of climate change — a warmer atmosphere tends to hold more moisture, leading to heavier downpours", research groups World Weather Attribution and Climate Central said in December. By Georgia Gratton Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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