Opec+ members subject to targets increased their collective crude output by 150,000 b/d in November, marking the alliance's first monthly production rise since March, Argus estimates.
Although output increased to 33.55mn b/d last month, it was still 3.97mn b/d below the level the group was producing at when it announced the first of its current round of cuts in October 2022. It was also 300,000 b/d below the group's collective production target for the month.
November's increase was mainly driven by Kazakhstan, where output was boosted by the restart of the 400,000 b/d Kashagan project following maintenance in October. Kazakh production rose by 220,000 b/d to 1.56mn b/d last month, leaving the country 90,000 b/d above its official production target.
Kazakhstan has been one of the group's biggest overproducers this year, alongside Iraq and Russia. It has repeatedly pledged to compensate for exceeding its targets but has so far largely failed to deliver.
Iraq — the group's largest overproducer — has made progress in recent months in reducing its production. Its output in November was again 20,000 b/d below its target at 3.98mn b/d, the same as in October. But it will need further reductions if it is to fully compensate for past overproduction.
Compliance with output targets is a key measure of group discipline and crucial to the success of Opec+ production policy. Argus calculates that eight members of the coalition have produced above their targets on average between January and October of this year.
Opec+ producers agreed earlier this month to push back a plan to start unwinding 2.2mn b/d of voluntary cuts by three months to April 2025 and agreed to return the full amount over 18 months rather than a year.
Last month's production increase by the entire group — including quota-exempt Iran, Libya and Venezuela — was 350,000 b/d, with total output at 39.03mn b/d. This was mainly driven by Libya, which increased its output by 160,000 b/d to 1.24mn b/d as it continued to ramp up after emerging from a partial oil blockade in early October. Iran's output rebounded by 60,000 b/d to 3.36mn b/d.
| Opec+ crude production | mn b/d | |||
| Nov | Oct* | Nov target† | ± target | |
| Opec 9 | 21.12 | 21.18 | 21.23 | -0.11 |
| Non-Opec 9 | 12.43 | 12.22 | 12.62 | -0.19 |
| Total | 33.55 | 33.40 | 33.85 | -0.30 |
| *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable | ||||
| Opec wellhead production | mn b/d | |||
| Nov | Oct* | Nov target† | ± target | |
| Saudi Arabia | 8.93 | 8.95 | 8.98 | -0.05 |
| Iraq | 3.98 | 3.98 | 4.00 | -0.02 |
| Kuwait | 2.40 | 2.43 | 2.41 | -0.01 |
| UAE | 2.97 | 2.93 | 2.91 | 0.06 |
| Algeria | 0.91 | 0.91 | 0.91 | 0.00 |
| Nigeria | 1.40 | 1.42 | 1.50 | -0.10 |
| Congo (Brazzaville) | 0.25 | 0.27 | 0.28 | -0.03 |
| Gabon | 0.22 | 0.23 | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| Equatorial Guinea | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.07 | -0.01 |
| Opec 9 | 21.12 | 21.18 | 21.23 | -0.11 |
| Iran | 3.36 | 3.30 | na | na |
| Libya | 1.24 | 1.08 | na | na |
| Venezuela | 0.88 | 0.90 | na | na |
| Total Opec 12^ | 26.60 | 26.46 | na | na |
| *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable ^Iran, Libya and Venezuela are exempt from production targets | ||||
| Non-Opec crude production | mn b/d | |||
| Nov | Oct* | Nov target† | ± target | |
| Russia | 8.97 | 8.97 | 8.98 | -0.01 |
| Oman | 0.76 | 0.76 | 0.76 | 0.00 |
| Azerbaijan | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.55 | -0.07 |
| Kazakhstan | 1.56 | 1.34 | 1.47 | 0.09 |
| Malaysia | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.40 | -0.07 |
| Bahrain | 0.17 | 0.18 | 0.20 | -0.03 |
| Brunei | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.08 | 0.00 |
| Sudan | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.06 | -0.04 |
| South Sudan | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.12 | -0.06 |
| Total non-Opec | 12.43 | 12.22 | 12.62 | -0.19 |
| *revised †includes additional cuts where applicable | ||||
