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Ethiopia’s EABC counters at $639/t cfr for DAP

  • : Fertilizers
  • 25/01/02

Fertilizer importer Ethiopian Agricultural Businesses (EABC) has countered offers for lots 1, 2, 3, 5 and 6 at $639/t fob under its 23 December tender to buy DAP.

Suppliers have until 10:00am on 5 January to respond.

Reports that EABC awarded lot 4 — 60,000t with laycan 9-15 February — to trading firm Midgulf International at the offered price of $639/t fob Jordan have emerged. But Jordanian producer JPMC has so far not committed to supplying this cargo to Midgulf International.

EABC has not given counterbids for lots 7, 8 or 9, and has probably scrapped these lots.

Offers for DAP from Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and China totalled 780,000t and ranged $639-705/t fob. EABC had initially sought to buy 611,000t in the tender.

The importer stipulated laycans for its counterbids in a document seen by Argus as follows:

  • Lot 1: 16-22 January
  • Lot 2: 25-30 January
  • Lot 3: 1-5 February
  • Lot 5: 10-15 February
  • Lot 6: 21-25 February

Each lot is for 60,000t.

Initially, the laycans for lots 5 and 6 had been 21-27 February and 5-11 March, respectively.


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25/02/11

Rain shuts Australian copper, fertilizer rail line

Rain shuts Australian copper, fertilizer rail line

Sydney, 11 February (Argus) — Torrential rains have shut Australia's Mount Isa rail line, which links phosphate and copper mines to the Port of Townsville in Queensland, with no reopening timeline in place. "The North Coast and Mount Isa rail lines have suffered severe damage with approximately 177 defects found so far," rail operator Queensland Rail (QR) said on 10 February. But the company has not yet examined parts of the line because of safety concerns, QR told Argus , preventing it from coming up with a reopening plan. Mining firm Glencore's Mount Isa copper and Australian manufacturer Incitec Pivot's Phosphate Hill fertilizer mines use the line to move commodities from production sites to the Port of Townsville, for export or distribution to other parts of Australia. Australian mining firm Centrex also uses the line to ship phosphate rock from its Ardmore phosphate project. Wet weather forced the Port of Abbot Point, located just south of Townsville, to close from 31 January to 5 February . The Port of Townsville remained open throughout that period, despite large parts of the city flooding. Incitec Pivot's Phosphate Hill plant is also currently facing non-weather-related challenges. The company lowered the mine's forecast production by 7pc to 740,000-800,000t for the 2025 financial year to 30 June, because of gas supply challenges. Argus ' MAP/DAP fob Townsville price was last assessed at $620-640/t on 6 February. By Avinash Govind and Tom Woodlock Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Indonesian, Malaysian MOP, NPK imports rise in 2024


25/02/10
25/02/10

Indonesian, Malaysian MOP, NPK imports rise in 2024

Singapore, 10 February (Argus) — A global palm oil rally in 2024 improved affordability for Indonesian and Malaysian plantations, pushing up MOP and NPK imports in the countries to three-year highs in 2024. Indonesia's MOP imports rose by about 44pc on the year to 3.44mn t, with increased deliveries from its key suppliers, according to the latest GTT data. Arrivals from Canada doubled to 1.26mn t from a year earlier. Imports from Russia and Belarus also increased to 1.2mn t and 245,000t, up by 42pc and 69pc respectively from a year earlier. Arrivals from Uzbekistan, likely representing product from Belarus, accounted for 406,500t, up by 23pc on the year. NPK deliveries to Indonesia hit 370,800t in 2024, up by 6pc from a year earlier. Around 177,000t of the total imports were sourced from Russia, with 93,000t from Norway. Malaysian MOP imports totalled 1.64mn t in 2024, close to a 20pc increase from 2023. Deliveries from its top supplier Russia reached a record high of 852,000t, up by about 56pc on the year. Arrivals from Canada were flat at 381,000t but imports from the US — which also represents Canadian product shipped from a US port — quadrupled to a 20-year high of 142,200t. The increase in deliveries from the US can be attributed to Canpotex's terminal in Portland, Oregon, resuming potash loadings at the start of 2024 after operations were halted in May 2023. Malaysia's NPK imports rose by about 25pc to 166,500t in 2024, with significant rises in deliveries from its key exporting partners. Arrivals from China rose to 42,000t, up by nearly 35pc from a year earlier, while deliveries from the Netherlands nearly doubled to 28,200t. Palm oil output in Indonesia, the world's top producer, is forecast to grow by nearly 2pc in 2025, according to a Reuters poll, in order to meet the growing demand for palm oil-based biodiesel with a planned increase in the mandatory mix of palm oil in biodiesel in the country in February. This is expected to boost demand for MOP and complex fertilizers, which should continue to support affordability in 2025. The increase in the Indonesian biodiesel mandate is also likely to limit exports from the world's top producer and push Malaysian crude palm oil prices higher in 2025, after hitting a two-year high in 2024. Malaysia is the world's second largest palm oil producer. But adverse weather, persistent labour shortages and low replanting rates may limit production in 2025, officials said. By Camila Tay Malaysian MOP imports 2024 (t) Russia Canada United States Jordan Others YTD January 45,001 59,090 27,500 4,705 4,845 141,141 February 40,000 40,596 5,724 11,000 3,672 100,992 March 67,946 27,495 16,000 2,462 6,603 120,506 April 51,889 47,776 0 2,986 6,629 109,280 May 37,804 38,000 17,018 21,208 38,649 152,679 June 47,913 21,501 17,018 13,898 22,216 122,546 July 100,586 21,979 0 2,007 3,570 128,142 August 65,989 54,048 27,977 4,461 4,781 157,256 September 90,780 15,987 0 6,316 4,285 117,368 October 175,642 21,906 30,890 29,667 12,258 270,363 November 56,476 38 68 3,005 9,273 68,860 December 71,965 33,001 0 23,825 26,596 155,387 Total 851,991 381,417 142,195 125,540 143,377 1,644,520 Source: GTT Indonesian MOP imports 2024 (t) Canada Russia Belarus Laos Others YTD January 143,565 26,000 44,100 12,455 66,458 292,578 February 85,968 85,577 27,508 9,930 60,391 269,374 March 201,828 84,798 0 26,899 43,532 357,057 April 76,856 115,897 10,000 12,203 52,943 267,899 May 119,413 109,895 32,276 25,291 37,142 324,017 June 110,924 77,980 7,995 13,846 2,655 213,400 July 193,302 189,443 0 16,008 2,151 400,904 August 139,323 98,408 19,676 34,092 105,874 397,373 September 0 91,673 40,739 4,201 36,175 172,788 October 46,427 120,395 16,700 17,658 53,071 254,251 November 43,974 66,189 16,480 5,216 49,088 180,947 December 96,907 132,418 29,453 9,989 41,237 310,004 Total 1,258,487 1,198,673 244,927 187,788 550,717 3,440,592 Source: GTT Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Q&A: Norway’s Scatec targets rare H2 demand ‘pockets’


25/02/04
25/02/04

Q&A: Norway’s Scatec targets rare H2 demand ‘pockets’

London, 4 February (Argus) — Norwegian renewables developer Scatec is pursuing opportunities in hydrogen production, particularly in the Middle East. The firm in 2023 quit a joint venture in Oman, but is progressing in Egypt and has secured an offtaker in Germany's state-backed H2Global auction initiative. Chief executive Terje Pilskog shared his views on the state of the hydrogen industry in the Middle East and the company's approach to near-term challenges. Edited highlights follow: Has the outlook for renewable hydrogen shifted in the past 12-18 months? There is more realism about the industry's growth rate, but the fundamentals haven't changed — green hydrogen is still important for decarbonising several industries. But clearly the pace is slower than expected and we must recognise there was some hype. In the end, securing offtake drives projects forward. Demand is moving significantly slower than what was assumed a couple of years ago. Delivery time for the first H2Global project is late 2027, and for larger projects towards 2030 is more realistic. Why did Scatec exit Oman, which others consider the place to be? Oman has the key requirements for producing green hydrogen and ammonia competitively, and its government has enabled development. But not much can happen, as most companies won't take final investment decisions (FIDs) without offtake deals. There's a lot of support from the authorities, but massive greenfield projects are complicated, with infrastructure for hydrogen, ammonia and shipping needed. When we pulled out of the project we were involved in, it was because we didn't see the demand coming. And we didn't feel comfortable with the timelines relative to when we expected to see demand coming in. Why did Scatec advance its project in Egypt? We've been in Egypt a long time and we are familiar with the country and the regulation. Egypt has mostly the same fundamentals as Oman, like available land and great renewable resources — even better wind conditions. Egypt is nicely located if green ammonia is used as marine fuel and because it is near Europe as an offtaker. The good thing about Egypt is its existing ammonia industry, with 3-4 large facilities. Our logic was that — because demand was coming slowly — in Egypt we could build incrementally at a scale that is possible to secure offtake. And the required investment would be lower because the ammonia export facility already has storage and port infrastructure. To be completely greenfield, you must target 700,000-1mn t/yr of green ammonia to be cost-competitive. Our joint project with Fertiglobe is for 70,000-75,000 t/yr — relatively small compared with the volumes people have talked about, but still of a size where it's possible to get offtake. The project secured an award from the H2Global tender last year, so now we are completing the FEED and financing, and we plan to reach FID in the first half of 2025. The capital costs are $0.5bn — not as much as everybody dreamed, but still sizeable. We are building 300MW of renewables and 100MW of electrolysis, so it's still going to be among the largest projects in 2027-28. What are Scatec's priorities over the next 12-24 months? We are developing a similar project at Damietta on the north coast of Egypt with Mopco and Echem that is 2-2.5 times larger. We have signed heads of terms with Yara and we aim to conclude the deal over the next 6-12 months so the project can move forward. We have focused very narrowly over the past two years to ensure these two projects succeed. We have been asked by countries to start development. It's the usual suspects, especially in north Africa. You have fundamentals for green hydrogen in Morocco, in Tunisia — countries that we know. Those are candidates. But my perspective is that the train, on a global basis, is not leaving the station. If we get to the FID stage on the first two projects, with the competence we are building we're going to have other opportunities. That does not mean that we wait until 2027 to do anything else, but it's clear what our first, second and third priorities are at this time. Do you like the land allocation model of countries such as Oman and Morocco? Each country has its own approach. From a developer's point of view, auctioning land is a bit challenging, as it adds costs, especially if you pay up-front. You might take two years before FID and a lot can happen in two years, so it's challenging to take on that exposure up-front. But it sets a certain standard in terms of who can participate, and if you want to attract the big guys, those are the ones that have the capability to go for that kind of opportunity. These are big projects, so it's important to screen a bit. But from my point of view, the key thing is creating the optimal framework for projects in your country. That's about making sure infrastructure is in place, things move quickly and projects are cost-competitive. It is a competition, as everybody in this region wants to become a green hydrogen hub. What H2 infrastructure should the Middle East region prioritise? Port facilities — storage and loading. It can be bunkering facilities, if you believe it could be a significant fuel for the marine industry. Enabling production near ports is important. The other factor is electricity infrastructure. Our project in Egypt needs grid availability, but others operate in ‘island mode'. Many countries in the region need more renewable energy, and you can end up with hydrogen facilities competing with other initiatives. So thinking through how to provide stable renewable electricity is important. Investors need plans to be clear, predictable and actually implemented. Our experience in Egypt is good. The authorities are implementing structures and regulations that enable us to advance projects. What is your biggest ask from governments? What is holding back development today is not the possibility of doing projects. It's the demand side. As long as it is free to emit CO2, it will be difficult to close the gap between green and grey hydrogen. It might be wishful thinking, but a global price for emitting CO2 would be ideal. Regional CO2 pricing is helpful and creates demand in pockets. But it adds costs for that region, which — from a global competition perspective — is not good. Europe's H2Global mechanism is helpful to cover the difference. There might be other pockets, like dual-fuel engine ships that can run partly on clean fuels. Obviously, you need global regulation, as companies cannot move alone. But for end consumers, transporting a pair of sneakers on a ship that uses green ammonia adds insignificant cost. Wouldn't customers for Tesla cars want them transported to Europe in an environmentally-friendly way? And they aren't the most price-sensitive. So, while you cannot do it on a global basis, there are pockets where you can start. How could the change of US administration impact hydrogen? It's a bit difficult. President Trump will not do anything that hurts American business, and climate is far down on his list of priorities. He will support hydrogen to the extent that it benefits US companies to be at the forefront of an industry, but he will not implement specific things in the US. That puts the US hydrogen industry at a disadvantage relative to the rest of the world. He will not lead the change with the US in front. Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Abu Dhabi's Adnoc rolls over sulphur price in February


25/02/04
25/02/04

Abu Dhabi's Adnoc rolls over sulphur price in February

London, 4 February (Argus) — Abu Dhabi's state-owned Adnoc set its February official sulphur selling price (OSP) for the Indian subcontinent at $174/t fob Ruwais, stable from its January OSP. Adnoc's February OSP implies a delivered price of $190-191/t cfr India, with the freight cost for a 40,000-45,000t shipment to the east coast of India last assessed at $16-17/t on 30 January. The announced OSP fob price rose by $105/t from $69/t fob Ruwais in February 2024. By Maria Mosquera Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

No Trump tariff exemption on Canadian potash: Update


25/02/03
25/02/03

No Trump tariff exemption on Canadian potash: Update

Updates with 1 month delay on tariffs. London, 3 February (Argus) — US president Donald Trump will allow a one month pause before imposing a 25pc tariff on non-energy imports — including potash — from Canada. Trump signed executive orders on 1 February that will impose the levy on all US imports from Canada, although energy imports will have a lower 10pc tariff. Plans for the tariffs were announced in November, when Trump won the US presidential election, but most market participants did not expect them to be implemented, or expected that potash could be exempt, given that the US relies heavily on Canadian product. Most sources believed that the threat of tariffs was largely a bargaining tool related to border security. US fertilizer industry association The Fertilizer Institute said last week that there was not enough certainty as to whether or not the tariffs would be implemented, but if enacted would be counter to Trump's promise during his election campaign to lower grocery prices. Following the issuing of the executive order, TFI said it is ready to collaborate with the Trump administration to spur fertilizer industry growth. The US has limited domestic MOP production and over 80pc of its potash needs are sourced from Canada, around 9mn-10mn t/yr of MOP. No other major potash import market relies so heavily on one source. The US also stopped taking MOP from Belarus in 2022 following sanctions, and the lack of Canadian MOP should only further limit supply options. What does this mean for the US potash market? The tariff will no doubt raise prices in the US. MOP prices at New Orleans (Nola) and across the Corn Belt have already edged higher in recent weeks because of concerns related to potential tariffs. Nutrien increased its post-winter fill potash offers on 28 January by $25/st to $340/st fot across US midcontinent warehouses, while river terminals rose to $335/st fob. Granular MOP fob Nola values have also risen, from $255/st at the start of the year to $265/st on 30 January, compared with $322.50/st fob in January 2024. Argus calculates that the tariff will add an average premium of around $60/t at the US-Canada border but it is uncertain how much of this cost will be passed onto the buyer, or how much will be swallowed by the producer. Regardless, the higher cost of Canadian potash will likely significantly reduce the volume purchased from Canada and push US buyers to turn to alternative suppliers, which may be cheaper. But the US will not be able to replace all of the 9mn-10mn t/yr of potash that the country needs. Prices for imported MOP may also benefit from an uptick in the price of Canadian potash, as other suppliers may raise prices to narrow the premium that Canada holds, while ensuring that they still remain competitive. For the upcoming spring application season in the US, there is likely to be limited effect as domestic supply is robust and suppliers have positioned stocks accordingly, but whether the tariff will still be in place when fall demand is anticipated is difficult to predict. How will this affect Canadian exports? If the US takes less potash from Canada, the country will have no option but to push more volume for offshore exports. Canada exports around 22mn t/yr of MOP, the bulk of which is handled by Canpotex, which markets product from Nutrien and Mosaic. Germany-based K+S also exports MOP from its Bethune mine in Saskatchewan. Canada typically exports around 11mn-12.5mn t/yr of MOP via Vancouver on the west coast, and Thunder Bay and Saint John's on the east coast. The maximum volume exported from these three ports in a year is around 14mn-15mn t. Another 3mn t can be moved via Portland in the US, which will be unaffected by the tariffs. But the Canadian rail system has reduced capacity to switch to ports and the export infrastructure will likely see bottlenecks, especially as all commodities will be affected, not just potash, which means that all products will be seeking alternative markets other than the US, and the only other option is to export. Higher pricing in the US could entice other suppliers to bring more to the US, diverting product away from key market Brazil. Potash suppliers often switch between the US and Brazil, depending on which market is paying a premium. But most imports into the US come through Nola, which is far from the main MOP consuming regions further north in the Corn Belt. It is clear that the US needs Canadian potash to meet typical US application levels, and that Canada needs the US as an outlet. There remains uncertainty over how long these tariffs will last and under what conditions they might be lifted. Although there appears to be a case for potash to receive an exemption from the executive order, nothing has been said to this effect by the Trump administration. In response to Trump's tariff executive order, the Canadian government announced its own 25pc tariff on more than $100bn of US imports. By Julia Campbell and Taylor Zavala Canada MOP exports to US ’000t Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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