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Viewpoint: North American BZ, SM output to dip in 2025

  • : Oil products, Petrochemicals
  • 25/01/02

North American benzene (BZ) and derivative styrene monomer (SM) production and operating rates may decline in 2025 as production costs climb.

SM and derivative output will likely see a drop due to the permanent closure of a SM plant in Sarnia and an acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS) plant in Ohio.

In 2024, SM operating rates averaged about 71-72pc of capacity, up by 1-2 percentage points from the year prior, according to Argus data. In 2025, operating rates are expected to pull back closer to 70pc due to lackluster underlying demand, offsetting the impact of the two plant closures.

Many SM producers on the US Gulf coast are entering 2025 at reduced rates due to high variable production cash costs against the SM spot price. The BZ contract price and higher ethylene prices recently pushed up production costs for SM producers.

A heavy upstream ethylene cracker turnaround season in early 2025 will keep derivative SM production costs elevated in Louisiana, stifling motivation for some downstream SM operators to run at normal rates.

Gulf coast BZ prices typically fall when SM demand is weak. But imports from Asia are projected to decline, leading to tighter supply in North America that could keep BZ prices elevated.

BZ imports from Asia are expected to decline in 2025 because of fewer arbitrage opportunities, as Asia and US BZ prices are expected to remain near parity in the first half of the year. The import arbitrage from South Korea to the Gulf coast was closed for much of the fourth quarter of 2024. Prices in Asia have garnered support because of demand from China for BZ and derivatives, as well as from aromatics production costs in the region that have increased alongside higher naphtha prices.

In January-October 2024, over 60pc of US BZ imports originated from northeast Asia, according to Global Trade Tracker data. Losing any portion of those imports typically tightens the US market and drives up domestic demand for BZ.

But tighter BZ supply due to lower imports may be mitigated by SM producers, if they continue to run at reduced rates in 2025. The US Gulf coast is around 100,000 metric tonnes (t) net short monthly on BZ, but market sources say the soft SM demand outlook for 2025 will cut US BZ import needs almost in half.

Despite fewer BZ imports to North America, reduced SM consumption could hamper run rates for BZ production from selective toluene disproportionation (STDP) unit operators.

The biggest obstacle for STDP operators in 2025 will like be paraxylene (PX) demand. Since STDP units produce BZ alongside PX, there needs to be domestic demand for PX. But demand has been weak due to PX imports and derivative polyethylene terephthalate (PET).

STDP operations increased at the end 2025 after running at at minimum rates or being idled since 2022. This came as BZ prices consistently eclipsed feedstock toluene prices.

The BZ to feedstock nitration-grade toluene spread averaged 30.5¢/USG in 2024 and the BZ to feedstock commercial-grade toluene (CGT) spread averaged 49.25¢/USG, according to Argus data. This means that for much of the year STDP operators could justify running units at higher rates to produce more BZ and PX.

But another challenge to consider on STDP run rates in 2025 is the value of toluene for gasoline blending compared to its value for chemical production. In 2022 and 2023, the toluene value into octanes was higher than going into an STDP for BZ and PX production. Feedstock toluene imports are poised to fall in 2025, a factor that would narrow STDP margins and further hamper on-purpose benzene production in the US in 2025.


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Trump announces plan for 'reciprocal' tariffs: Update


25/02/13
25/02/13

Trump announces plan for 'reciprocal' tariffs: Update

Updates with more details, additional quotes from Trump. Washington, 13 February (Argus) — President Donald Trump said today he would impose "reciprocal tariffs" on imports from an undisclosed number of countries sometime in the future, a move that could affect imports of ethanol and likely many other energy commodities. The idea behind the next major wave of tariffs Trump plans to unveil is to raise the US import tariffs to the same level foreign countries charge on exports from the US. A fact sheet circulated by the White House singled out Brazil's tariffs on US-sourced ethanol and EU's higher tariffs on imported cars as examples of the allegedly discriminatory treatment that Trump would attempt to address. "They charge us a tax or tariff, and we charge them the exact same tax, very simple," Trump told reporters at the White House. As with his first tariffs against Canada and Mexico — paused until 4 March — and against China, which went into effect on 4 February, there is a great deal of regulatory uncertainty on how or when the tariffs will be implemented. "Nobody knows what that number is, unless you go by the individual country, and you can see what it is," Trump said. So far, the pending actions do not yet appear to be as severe or hastily implemented as Trump's recent comments led many to believe. His directive does not set a specific deadline for when the reciprocal tariffs will be imposed. It merely directs US government agencies to review if US exporters face higher taxes and other trade barriers compared with their foreign competitors, and to propose countermeasures. The review preceding the potential imposition of 'reciprocal tariffs' will be complete by 1 April, Trump's commerce secretary nominee, Howard Lutnick, said. "We'll be ready to go on 1 April and and we'll hand it to the president, and he'll make a decision," Lutnick said. The intent of the directive is to force foreign countries to lower their tariffs against the US. But that outcome is not guaranteed. Trump's 10pc tariff on imports from China, and Beijing's more limited counter-tariffs, went into effect this month despite his claim that he would quickly negotiate with Beijing to avert a trade war. In what is becoming a norm with the tariff announcements, Trump is alternatively downplaying inflationary effects of such tariffs, or casting any negative effects as justified. The tariffs are going to result in "tremendous amounts of jobs, and ultimately prices will stay the same, or go down, but we're going to have a very dynamic country," Trump said. Prompted by the reporters to say if voters would hold him responsible for any resulting spike in inflation, Trump said, "prices could go up somewhat short-term, but prices will also go down." The White House, at least, no longer rejects descriptions of tariffs as a tax, even though it continues to insist that only foreign exporters — not US consumers — will be paying it. Trump has imposed a 25pc tariff on imported steel and aluminum that will become effective on 12 March. The 1 April date referenced in today's announcement is also a deadline set in an earlier Trump executive order for all US government agencies to investigate the causes of "our country's large and persistent annual trade deficits in goods". That review is the first step in planned imposition of tariffs on national security and other grounds against imports from the EU, UK, India, Vietnam and other major economies. The large deficit the US runs in trade in goods with India will be a subject of Trump's meeting later today with Indian prime minister Narendra Modi. The US expects India to step up purchases of crude and other energy commodities to better balance bilateral trade. Trump likewise told Japan's prime minister Shigeru Ishiba last week that Tokyo should ensure that Japanese energy companies source more US oil, LNG and ethanol to "get rid of" the US' trade deficit with Japan. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

ACBL sets release dates for Illinois River lock


25/02/13
25/02/13

ACBL sets release dates for Illinois River lock

Houston, 13 February (Argus) — Major barge carrier American Commercial Barge Line (ACBL) has issued its earliest release dates for Illinois River barges planning to transit the Lockport Lock, which closed for maintenance last month. Release dates will be from 23 February through 19 March for barges expecting to pass through the Lockport Lock over the spring season, ACBL said Wednesday. The US Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) expects to reopen the Lockport Lock on 25 March, the Corps said when it announced the closure . The Corps closed the lock on 28 January to install new vertical lift gates and make repairs. The closure has cut off major trade hubs such as Chicago, Illinois, and Burns Harbor, Indiana, from Illinois River barge transportation. Lock 27 and the Mel Price Lock above St Louis will remain partially closed through 1 April, as they are also undergoing maintenance by the Corps, ACBL said. The barge line acknowledged higher demurrage rates were likely for those who loaded barges prior to the released dates. Initial transit on the Illinois River is also anticipated to have a significant backlog in the spring months. By Meghan Yoyotte ACBL's Illinois River release dates Origin Port Barges destined above Lockport Lock, on IL River Mobile, AL 25 Feb Houston, TX 23 Feb Weeks Island, LA 26 Feb New Orleans, LA 3 Mar Pittsburgh, PA 2 Mar Cincinnati, OH 5 Mar Decatur, AL 10 Mar Memphis, TN 10 Mar Evanscille, IN 12 Mar Cairo, IL 16 Mar St Louis, MO 19 Mar — ACBL Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Trump announces plan for 'reciprocal' tariffs


25/02/13
25/02/13

Trump announces plan for 'reciprocal' tariffs

Washington, 13 February (Argus) — President Donald Trump said today he would impose "reciprocal tariffs" on imports from an undisclosed number of countries sometime in the future, a move that could affect imports of ethanol and likely many other energy commodities. The idea behind the next major wave of tariffs Trump plans to unveil is to raise the US import tariffs to the same level foreign countries charge on exports from the US. Trump's trade advisers previously cited Brazil's tariff on US-sourced ethanol, which is higher than the US customs duty on ethanol, as an example of the disparity they would attempt to address. "They charge us a tax or tariff, and we charge them the exact same tax, very simple," Trump told reporters at the White House. As with his first tariffs against Canada and Mexico — paused until 4 March — and against China, which went into effect on 4 February, there is a great deal of regulatory uncertainty on how the tariffs will be implemented. "Nobody knows what that number is, unless you go by the individual country, and you can see what it is," Trump said. Trump's directive does not set a specific deadline for when the reciprocal tariffs will be imposed. The intent of the order is to force foreign countries to lower their tariffs against the US. But that outcome is not guaranteed. Trump's 10pc tariff on imports from China, and Beijing's more limited counter-tariffs, went into effect this month despite his claim that he would quickly negotiate with Beijing to avert a trade war. In what is becoming a norm with the tariff announcements, the Trump administration is alternatively downplaying inflationary effects of such tariffs, or casting any negative effects as justified. "Last year, US-based companies paid foreign governments $370bn in taxes," White House National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett said today. "Meanwhile, foreign companies paid the US $57bn in taxes. Are we supposed to keep doing that because of some economic model that doesn't have the whole real world in it?" The White House, at least, no longer rejects descriptions of tariffs as a tax, even though it continues to insist that only foreign exporters — not US consumers — will be paying it. Trump has imposed a 25pc tariff on imported steel and aluminum that will become effective on 12 March. He set a deadline of 1 April for all US government agencies to investigate the causes of "our country's large and persistent annual trade deficits in goods" — a review that likely will result in additional tariffs later this year against imports from the EU, UK, India, Vietnam and other major economies. The large deficit the US runs in trade in goods with India will be a subject of Trump's meeting later today with Indian prime minister Narendra Modi. The US expects India to step up purchases of crude and other energy commodities to better balance bilateral trade. Trump likewise told Japan's prime minister Shigeru Ishiba last week that Tokyo should ensure that Japanese energy companies source more US oil, LNG and ethanol to "get rid of" the US' trade deficit with Japan. By Haik Gugarats Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

US tariffs would cut midcon refinery runs: PBF


25/02/13
25/02/13

US tariffs would cut midcon refinery runs: PBF

Houston, 13 February (Argus) — US president Donald Trump's impending tariffs on Canadian crude would cause US midcontinent refineries to cut throughputs, even if they find alternative crudes, US independent refiner PBF Energy said today. The tariffs would cause a sizable disruption and "have some impact on throughput," chief executive Matthew Lucey said on an earnings call. Switching to alternative crudes would lead to lower yields of gasoline, diesel and other fuels because refineries are optimized around a certain type of crude, he said. Lucey described the US-Canada tariff situation as a "standoff" because US refiners need Canadian crude to maintain throughput while Canada needs the US market to avoid production cuts. "If they don't sell it to the US, it's going to stay in the ground," he said. PBF operates a 173,000 b/d refinery in Toledo, Ohio, which runs a significant slate of synthetic crude out of Canada. The US will impose a 10pc tariff on energy from Canada and a 25pc tariff on all imports from Mexico starting on 4 March, after Trump delayed the tariff by a month. US refiners' runs of Canadian crude averaged about 4mn b/d over the past year, or about 22pc of total US throughputs, according to US investment bank Tudor Pickering. Most of that crude feeds large midcontinent facilities. The region as a whole consumes about 70pc of US crude imports from Canada, with the balance going to the US Gulf coast. US refiners who rely on Canadian crude imports are seeking alternative sources. US refiner Marathon Petroleum said last week it could run some domestic crudes in its midcontinent refineries, including crude from the Bakken shale in North Dakota and Montana, to replace Canadian imports. By Eunice Bridges Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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