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US added 256,000 jobs in December

  • : Coal, Electricity, Metals, Natural gas
  • 25/01/10

The US added 256,000 nonfarm jobs in December, reflecting a robust labor market that may prompt the Federal Reserve to keep borrowing costs higher for longer.

Analysts had expected gains of about 160,000 jobs for December.

The gains last month followed 212,000 more jobs in November, which were downwardly revised by 15,000, the Labor Department said Friday. Job gains in October were revised up by 7,000 to 43,000 jobs.

The CME's FedWatch tool today showed 97.3pc probability Fed policy makers will keep the target lending rate unchanged at 4.25-4.5pc at the next Fed meeting at the end of the month, up from 93.6pc on Thursday. FedWatch shows nearly 60pc probability of no change through the May meeting, up from about 45pc Thursday.

Unemployment edged down to 4.1pc in December from 4.2pc the prior month.

Payroll employment gains averaged 186,000/month in 2024, for total gains of 2.2mn jobs. That was down from 251,000 jobs/month in 2023, for total gains of 3mn jobs that year.

Health care added 46,000 jobs in December, retail trade added 43,000 jobs, government jobs rose by 33,000, social assistance increased by 23,000, and leisure and hospitality added 43,000 jobs.

Construction added 8,000 jobs in December. Manufacturing lost 13,000 jobs and mining and logging lost 3,000 jobs. Transportation and warehousing jobs grew by 9,600.

Average hourly earnings grew by an annual 3.9pc following 4pc growth in November.

By Bob Willis


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25/02/06

Crude Summit: US to remain top crude producer

Crude Summit: US to remain top crude producer

Houston, 6 February (Argus) — The US is likely to remain the world's top crude producer for some time to come, according to shale executives at the Argus Global Crude Summit Americas in Houston, Texas, today. "In the foreseeable future, I don't really see a lot of change," said Shannon Flowers, director of crude and water marketing at Coterra Energy. There is still enough high-quality acreage to go after, while efficiency gains around faster drilling times and targeting longer wells are also helping to drive output gains. "There's a lot of creativity that goes on in trying to understand how we can do more with less," Flowers said today at the event. While the rig count is down 20pc over the last two years, production has grown by more than 1mn b/d. "Doing more with less is kind of a common theme," Flowers said in reference to operations at Coterra and across the industry. "I expect that to continue." While the Permian has dominated all the attention of late, the offshore Gulf of Mexico is likely to be an important driver of output going forward, with several projects starting up this year. Other regions such as the Rockies, Wyoming and possibly Utah could also see some growth. A recent round of mergers and acquisitions that saw $300bn of upstream oil and gas deals inked has further to run, says John Argo, vice president for the Williston Basin at Continental Resources. "There will continue to be more consolidation," Argo said. Scarcity with regard to remaining high-quality acreage means that valuations will continue to climb, he said. By Stephen Cunningham Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Crude Summit: Asset-backed oil trades on the rise


25/02/06
25/02/06

Crude Summit: Asset-backed oil trades on the rise

Houston, 6 February (Argus) — Asset-backed trading is becoming commonplace in the oil industry as companies up and down the supply chain bring capabilities in-house, delegates heard at the Argus Global Crude Summit Americas in Houston, Texas, today. "Traditionally, long term hedging was popular, and it still is, but in general we've seen a move towards the front end of the curve," said CME Group's managing director and global head of energy and environmental products Peter Keavey. "The risks are really in the prompt," said Keavy. "We're seeing a lot of hedging in the short term [and] that also is reflective of asset-based optimization." HC Group managing partner Paul Chapman has also noticed a continued shift in trading by banks, which either exited or scaled down operations in 2014 and 2015, to those directly in the industry. "I would argue that pretty much every single business around the world — producer, miner, refiner, retailer of fuels and major — is on some spectrum of developing some asset trading," said Chapman. "And it's driven by a need to capture more margin." Changing trade flows have naturally had a bearing on who becomes more involved in individual markets. "Over the past five years, European players have more and more exposure to US molecules, whether it be crude oil or natural gas," said Keavey, which has driven the growth of trade of WTI, RBOB, gasoline, and heating oil in international markets. Changing energy policy, and policies to reach other political objectives, have a tendency to shape energy flows, whether they are intended or not, the speakers said. The Russian-Ukraine conflict is a prime example, and there are clear signs that US president Donald Trump's second term in office will do the same. "As this world gets more shaped by trade wars and there's more and more government intervention, that itself starts to break down some of the fundamentals of how some of these markets work," said Chapman. Keavey expects Canadian crude to continue to flow even under a Canada-US trade war, but "the question is, what disruption happens to the pricing?" By Brett Holmes Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Mexico factory activity weakens in Jan


25/02/06
25/02/06

Mexico factory activity weakens in Jan

Mexico City, 6 February (Argus) — Mexico's manufacturing sector contracted further in January, according to the latest purchasing managers index (PMI) survey from the finance executive association IMEF. Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs decreased for a second month in January, falling deeper into contraction territory. "Mexico's economy began 2025 with no growth at all," said IMEF, "with the outlook made highly uncertain moving forward by US President Donald Trump's first actions in office." While Trump's proposed tariffs remain on hold, IMEF warned they could severely impact Mexico's economy by further stalling growth and triggering inflation. The manufacturing PMI dropped to 45.6 from 47.5 in December, marking its tenth consecutive month below the 50-point expansion threshold. Manufacturing, which accounts for about a fifth of Mexico's economy, is led by the auto sector, contributing about 18pc of manufacturing GDP. Within the manufacturing PMI, the new orders index dropped 3.5 points to 42.9 and deeper into contraction. Similarly, production fell 3.0 points to 42.8. Employment held at 47.4 in January, now in contraction for 12 consecutive months. The non-manufacturing PMI — covering services and commerce — declined again, slipping to 49.1 in January from 49.6 in December. New orders dropped 1.9 points to 47.9, production fell 1.4 points to 47.1 and employment held at 48.7. IMEF further raised concerns over Mexico's trade and services sectors — key drivers of Mexico's post-pandemic recovery, noting a recent loss of momentum. The group added this may have implications on the non-manufacturing PMI with its associated sub-components "on the verge of contraction". By James Young Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Amos to buy Sinopec Venezuelan oil, gas assets


25/02/06
25/02/06

Amos to buy Sinopec Venezuelan oil, gas assets

Caracas, 6 February (Argus) — US upstream start-up Amos Global Energy Management has agreed to buy some of Chinese Sinopec's oil and natural gas interests in Venezuela with an eye on US sanctions eventually easing there, the Houston-based firm said. Venezuela's state-owned PdV is the majority owner of the stake to be sold, which is part of the PetroParia joint venture with Sinopec in the Gulf of Paria. "Sinopec did not develop it better because of clashes with PdV management, but the potential to export gas to Trinidad and Tobago from the property is clear", Maracaibo-based analyst ChemStrategy said. Trinidad and Tobago has discussed developing gas fields that straddle its border with Venezuela to stem its downturn in production. But US sanctions on Venezuela's crude sector have slowed progress, and the administration of President Donald Trump has not indicated that it will change course . Amos "believes that this purchase will ultimately bring the investments needed to develop oil and gas production opportunities" there and in other nearby properties, including in a previous agreement in the same Gulf of Paria with Inepetrol. PdV officials and pro-Maduro lawmakers in Caracas said they were aware of the plan but declined to offer additional details. Amos has been seeking capital and arming agreements to be "prepared to increase Venezuelan production when existing sanctions are lifted." Amos is led by chief executive Ali Moshiri who retired as president of Chevron Africa and Latin America exploration and production in March 2017. Completion of the sale will require approval from the US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control and the Venezuelan hydrocarbons ministry, Amos said. By Carlos Camacho Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

Quota liberalisation could be reversed for steel


25/02/06
25/02/06

Quota liberalisation could be reversed for steel

London, 6 February (Argus) — The liberalisation of hot-rolled coil (HRC) quotas since 2018 could be reversed in the European Commission's functional safeguard review, according to market sources. This alone would lead to a volume cut of about 15pc since the quotas were introduced. European producers' association Eurofer has requested a 50pc cut in flat product quota volumes, to align import share with 2012-14, when it says apparent consumption was last in line with current levels. Eurofer estimates import share on flat products at nearly 28pc this year compared with an average share of just over 16pc in 2012-14. Eurofer removes HRC destined for internal processing into cold-rolled coil and hot-dip galvanised coil from its calculation of overall market supply. Including HRC for internal processing, import share has risen from just below 6pc since 2012-14 to more than 14pc, according to Argus calculations. The average HRC import rate over 2012-14 was 4.73mn t/yr, which is about 85pc lower than the 8.8mn t likely to be imported in 2024 — this assumes imports of about 300,000t in December 2024, calculated from a quota drawdown during the period with some additional material from countries exempt from the safeguard on HRC. Sources suggest there cannot be a wholesale cut in quota volumes that is compatible with WTO rules, but that the repeal of liberalisation and some other fine-tuning measures could add up to a meaningful revision. The proposal to reduce the 'other countries' cap to 7.5pc from the current 15pc would effectively halve potential volumes from sellers within that quota, such as Japan, Vietnam and Egypt. Removing carryover of unused quota and including previously exempt countries into the quota would also have an impact. Imports could potentially be capped at a certain share of overall supply, some said, although it is not clear how this could be administered. The commission has received significant feedback from the buy side of the market, given the substantial reduction sought by Eurofer and its potential impact. Some buyers suggest 2017 or 2018 could be a more accurate point of reference than 2012-14. During this period, imports have risen by almost 32pc from 6.6mn t, while market supply has contracted by about 28pc, led by domestic output dropping by almost a quarter. By Colin Richardson Send comments and request more information at feedback@argusmedia.com Copyright © 2025. Argus Media group . All rights reserved.

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